摘要
随着生物质能研究和应用的不断深入,如何有效地管理和分析不断增加的生物能生产涉及的各种数据,评价其各个方面的影响,已经成为一个重要的课题。然而,我国目前还没有能够对特定区域内多个工厂的供应链进行全面评价的模型或系统。本文提出一个基于地理信息系统(GIS)的决策支持系统(DSS)来辅助生物质生产的决策。主要工作简述如下:
1.描述了系统各个组成部分的结构、功能和在相互间的关系。系统从国家和地方两个层次上,采用生命周期的理论和方法,对生物质生产的经济性、环境和社会影响进行分析。系统包括四个主要的数据库:地理信息系统数据库、生物质原料数据库、后勤数据库和转化数据库。在数据库的基础上,系统通过定义单元过程对生物质生产供应链上的各个不同阶段进行了模拟和分析。
2.利用地理信息系统提供的林业废弃物、道路交通网络和电网的分布数据,确定每个城市的收集点个数和分布,应用聚类分析的方法确定存储点和发电厂的位置和规模,从而优化了运输距离,减少由此导致的成本和排放。在聚类分析的结果上,进一步分析了各个阶段的成本、CO_2排放和需要的工人数。同时,系统分析了不同参数对于评价指标的影响程度和可能的改进措施。
3.将环境影响评价模型和优化算法相结合,对我国燃料乙醇的生产和使用中的能量消耗和有害物质的排放设计了优化变量、目标函数和约束条件并用优化算法进行求解。优化的结果可以从环境影响的方面,对实际的乙醇生产过程提出建议。
With the research and exploitation of the bioenergy deepening, the problem of how to handle and analyze the growing data efficiently, and estimate its impacts on all aspects, has become an important issue. However, in our country, there is no model or system that can evaluate the supply chain of several plants in the special region at present. For that purpose, a Decision Support System (DSS) based on Geographical Information System (GIS) is built to help bioenergy decision making. The contents are as following:
1. The structure, function and relationship of the components of the DSS are described in the paper. The system evaluates the economical, environmental and social influence of the bioenergy project using the theory and method of Life Cycle. It includes four main databases, i.e. the GIS database, the biomass material database, the logistic database and the conversion database. Then the Unit Processes are defined to simulate and analyze each stage in the supply chain.
2. Using the data of the forest biomass, road net and electrical net provided by the GIS, the numbers and the positions of collection points in each city are known. Then the position and capacity of each plant are decided by clustering analysis. In this method, the transportation distance is optimized. Based on the results of the clustering, the costs, emissions and numbers of labor of each stage on the supply chain are calculated. Besides, system evaluates the impacts of different parameters, and then provides the possible improving means.
3. For the energy use and regulated emissions in the fuel ethanol production and combustion process, the optimization variables, objective functions and restrict conditions are designed and then solved utilizing optimization algorithm. The results can give suggestions for the real fuel ethanol production process.
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