寡头垄断电信市场价格博弈模型及其复杂性研究
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摘要
中国政府为了鼓励电信市场的有效竞争,在2008年5月对电信企业进行重组,并发展3G业务。面对新的市场、新的业务以及新的竞争对手,今后如何发展、如何在激烈的竞争中脱颖而出是各企业所最为关注的。各企业竞争的过程其实就是其博弈的过程,本文以国内外相关领域的研究成果为基础,运用管理学理论、动态经济学理论和非线性动力学方法,从理论和实际两条研究思路出发,建立一系列寡头垄断的动态重复博弈模型,并分析其复杂性,以及这一复杂性在实际问题中的表现,本文的主要创新性结果如下:
1、与以往相关文献基于古诺模型进行产量博弈复杂性研究的方法不同,本文基于伯川德模型、加入有限理性对电信市场的2G市场及3G市场博弈情况,分别建立了双寡头及三寡头价格博弈模型,而且根据价格竞争的特点,在建模时对以往相关文献的模型进行了改进。并基于该博弈模型发现和揭示了复杂博弈过程的某些本质特征,如找出不动点,并分析其均衡点的稳定性,同时利用数值模拟研究了模型随参数变化的分岔现象、Lyapunov指数谱、吸引子以及随时间变化的历程等混沌动力学特性。
2、研究了有关电信市场互联互通的双寡头博弈全过程——N阶段博弈过程,除研究从无政府管制的单边对抗互联互通到政府管制下的被迫互联互通各寡头收益情况,同时还在此基础上利用网络外部性理论对其完全互联互通后所面临的重复博弈状况建立了模型,并研究其所产生的丰富的动力学特性。
3、通过采用系统变量的状态反馈和参数调节的控制策略,控制了三寡头垄断电信3G市场中离散非线性动力系统的倍周期分岔和混沌吸引子中不稳定的周期轨道,并通过系统分岔图以及Lyapunov指数验证了混沌控制过程。为了使理论能够指导实际,将混沌控制模型进行数学变换,将变形后的混沌控制模型与原3G市场三寡头博弈模型进行比较,发现模型的变化体现在边际成本的减小、价格对需求量的敏感度的减小以及替代率的减小,可见可以通过这些参数的变化来实现混沌的控制。
这一研究结果可为我国发展3G市场提供了借鉴作用——即:如何来保证一个稳定、有效的竞争市场。同时在借鉴国际3G市场发展的策略经验的基础上(包括欧洲市场、美洲市场以及亚洲市场),得出我国发展3G市场的策略,为政府制定政策及各运营商战略规划提供了理论根据。
China is now the largest telecommunications market in the world. On May 23rd, 2008, in order to make full use of the telecommunication resource, and to encourage the health competition in telecommunication markets, it was declared that the six operators were merged into three operators. They were given three 3G`s (the third generation technologies) license respectively, which was predicted to increase the degree of competition within China’s telecommunications industry substantially. So, it is necessary to study how they competed in 3G telecoms era. Before that, the complex dynamic process of the duopoly games in Chinese telecoms market was studied firstly. In this paper, a series of price game models are proposed by introducing the chaotic dynamic theory into the telecommunications market. The main content of this dissertation is as follows:
1. Recently, many works of Cournot model with bounded rationality have been done, which have shown that Cournot model has very abundant dynamical behaviors such as cyclic, bifurcation and chaos. However, the study about the dynamical behaviors of Bertrand model is much less, which is popular in practice. This paper gives the models of the duoboly game and the triopoly game in Chinese 2G and 3G markets respectively, and shows some natural characteristics in this complex process. Various numerical results are presented including strange attractors, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimension, sensitivity dependence on initial conditions.
2. This paper studies the N-stage game of intercommunication in Chinese telecommunications market and its complexity. At first, the intercommunication game between two oligopolistic competitors without government controlling, which is a Clever Pig Game, is studied. Then the intercommunication game between two oligopolistic competitors with government controlling is studied. Finally, the thesis studies the repeated price game after intercommunication and its complexity.
3. A chaos control method is successfully applied to the dynamic repeated game models in 3G oligopolistic market. The stability control of the period-doubling bifurcation and unstable periodic orbits in the nonlinear discrete dynamic systems is realized. The numerical simulation results show that these control methods are effective. In order to make the theory to guide practice, the paper makes mathematical transformation for the chaos control model, and finds that the changes between the chaos control model and the original model reflectes in the reduction of the marginal cost, the reduction of the price sensitivity to demand and the reduction of the replacement rate. That is to say we can control the chaos through the reduction of these parameters.
The findings of this research can help Chinese telecommunications develop 3G market well, and make the 3G market be a health and effective market. Meantime, the paper gives the development strategy of Chinese 3G market based on international experience. It provides a theoretical basis for government making policy and operators making strategic planning.
1、与以往相关文献基于古诺模型进行产量博弈复杂性研究的方法不同,本文基于伯川德模型、加入有限理性对电信市场的2G市场及3G市场博弈情况,分别建立了双寡头及三寡头价格博弈模型,而且根据价格竞争的特点,在建模时对以往相关文献的模型进行了改进。并基于该博弈模型发现和揭示了复杂博弈过程的某些本质特征,如找出不动点,并分析其均衡点的稳定性,同时利用数值模拟研究了模型随参数变化的分岔现象、Lyapunov指数谱、吸引子以及随时间变化的历程等混沌动力学特性。
2、研究了有关电信市场互联互通的双寡头博弈全过程——N阶段博弈过程,除研究从无政府管制的单边对抗互联互通到政府管制下的被迫互联互通各寡头收益情况,同时还在此基础上利用网络外部性理论对其完全互联互通后所面临的重复博弈状况建立了模型,并研究其所产生的丰富的动力学特性。
3、通过采用系统变量的状态反馈和参数调节的控制策略,控制了三寡头垄断电信3G市场中离散非线性动力系统的倍周期分岔和混沌吸引子中不稳定的周期轨道,并通过系统分岔图以及Lyapunov指数验证了混沌控制过程。为了使理论能够指导实际,将混沌控制模型进行数学变换,将变形后的混沌控制模型与原3G市场三寡头博弈模型进行比较,发现模型的变化体现在边际成本的减小、价格对需求量的敏感度的减小以及替代率的减小,可见可以通过这些参数的变化来实现混沌的控制。
这一研究结果可为我国发展3G市场提供了借鉴作用——即:如何来保证一个稳定、有效的竞争市场。同时在借鉴国际3G市场发展的策略经验的基础上(包括欧洲市场、美洲市场以及亚洲市场),得出我国发展3G市场的策略,为政府制定政策及各运营商战略规划提供了理论根据。
China is now the largest telecommunications market in the world. On May 23rd, 2008, in order to make full use of the telecommunication resource, and to encourage the health competition in telecommunication markets, it was declared that the six operators were merged into three operators. They were given three 3G`s (the third generation technologies) license respectively, which was predicted to increase the degree of competition within China’s telecommunications industry substantially. So, it is necessary to study how they competed in 3G telecoms era. Before that, the complex dynamic process of the duopoly games in Chinese telecoms market was studied firstly. In this paper, a series of price game models are proposed by introducing the chaotic dynamic theory into the telecommunications market. The main content of this dissertation is as follows:
1. Recently, many works of Cournot model with bounded rationality have been done, which have shown that Cournot model has very abundant dynamical behaviors such as cyclic, bifurcation and chaos. However, the study about the dynamical behaviors of Bertrand model is much less, which is popular in practice. This paper gives the models of the duoboly game and the triopoly game in Chinese 2G and 3G markets respectively, and shows some natural characteristics in this complex process. Various numerical results are presented including strange attractors, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimension, sensitivity dependence on initial conditions.
2. This paper studies the N-stage game of intercommunication in Chinese telecommunications market and its complexity. At first, the intercommunication game between two oligopolistic competitors without government controlling, which is a Clever Pig Game, is studied. Then the intercommunication game between two oligopolistic competitors with government controlling is studied. Finally, the thesis studies the repeated price game after intercommunication and its complexity.
3. A chaos control method is successfully applied to the dynamic repeated game models in 3G oligopolistic market. The stability control of the period-doubling bifurcation and unstable periodic orbits in the nonlinear discrete dynamic systems is realized. The numerical simulation results show that these control methods are effective. In order to make the theory to guide practice, the paper makes mathematical transformation for the chaos control model, and finds that the changes between the chaos control model and the original model reflectes in the reduction of the marginal cost, the reduction of the price sensitivity to demand and the reduction of the replacement rate. That is to say we can control the chaos through the reduction of these parameters.
The findings of this research can help Chinese telecommunications develop 3G market well, and make the 3G market be a health and effective market. Meantime, the paper gives the development strategy of Chinese 3G market based on international experience. It provides a theoretical basis for government making policy and operators making strategic planning.
引文
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