战略性新兴产业发展与演进研究
|
摘要
尽管我国经济总量已列世界前茅,但生产力水平总体上还不高,产业结构不合理,城乡、区域发展不平衡,长期形成的结构性矛盾和粗放型增长方式尚未根本改变,工业化、城镇化快速发展同能源资源和生态环境的矛盾也日益突出。我国科技自主创新能力还不够强,总体上经济发展技术含量不高,很多关键技术和核心技术受制于人,先导性战略高技术领域科技力量薄弱,重要产业对外技术依赖程度仍然较高。金融危机后,世界各国尤其是主要大国纷纷把发展新能源、新材料、信息网络、生物医药、节能环保、低碳技术、绿色经济等作为新一轮产业发展的重点。因此,通过发展战略性新兴产业来培育新的经济增长点、抢占国际经济科技制高点也就成为世界发展大趋势,对于我国来说加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业更是势在必行,意义重大。
《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》,确定了战略性新兴产业将成为国民经济的先导产业和支柱产业,主要包括节能环保、新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料和新能源汽车七个战略性新兴产业,其目的就是要推进产业结构升级、加快经济发展方式转变,构建国际竞争新优势、掌握发展的主动权。
本文根据我国加快经济发展方式转变与大力培育和发展战略性新兴产业的需要,将研究发展趋势、破解发展难题、设计实现机制、提出政策建议作为研究的基础和主线。本文首先从战略性新兴产业的界定入手,在对文献进行综述后,对战略性新兴产业的定义及风险、特点等进行了概述,并构建了发展战略性新兴产业的微观、宏观模型和技术周期模型。其次,分析了战略性新兴产业的国内外动因、发展现状,并用投入产出模型对其与主导产业之间的关系、用技术周期模型对战略性新兴产业的发展阶段进行了研究和探讨。论文的后半部分主要就战略性新兴产业的产业链、区域空间布局和金融支持进行了分析,最后得出战略性新兴产业发展的一般规律和政策建议。文章综合运用理论模型构建、产业竞争的“五因素分析法”、产业发展阶段的技术周期和技术泡沫模型、主导产业间轮换的投入产出模型,以及产业链延仲、产业空间布局等多种研究方法,以期对战略性新兴产业有一个直观而全面的分析。
Although China's economic aggregate has the highest in the world, but the productivity level is not high on the whole, irrational industrial structure, urban and rural, regional development imbalances, long-term structural problems and the extensive mode of growth has not fundamentally changed, industrialization, urban the rapid development of energy resources and the ecological environment with the contradictions are becoming increasingly prominent. China's independent innovation capability is not strong enough, as a whole the economic development technique content is not high, the key technologies and the core technologies are under the control of others, the precursive strategic high-tech domain science and technology strength is weak, the important industrial foreign technology level of dependency was still high. After the financial crisis, the world, especially the major powers have the development of new energy, new materials, information networks, biomedicine, energy saving, low-carbon technology, green economy, as the focus of a new round of industrial development. Therefore, through the development of strategic new industries to nurture new economic growth point, to seize the high ground of international economic and technological development has become the world's trend of accelerating the development of our country and for the development of new industries is a strategic imperative of great significance.
"The State Council About Speeds Up Cultivates And Develops Strategic Emergent industry Decision", had determined the strategic emergent industry will become the leading national industries and pillar industries, includingenergy saving and environmental protection、new generation of information technology、biology、high-end equipment manufacturing、new energy、new material、new energy vehicles。Its purpose is to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, accelerate the economic development mode, building a new international competitive advantage, grasp the initiative in development.
According to China's accelerated economic development patterns and to cultivate and develop the strategic needs of new industries, This article research the development trends, solve the problem of development, design and implementation mechanisms, make policy recommendations as a basis for research and the main line. Firstly, this article definit the strategic emerging industries in the review of the literature, summary the definition of strategic emerging industry risks and characteristics, and built the micro, the macro model and the technology cycle model of strategic emerging industries development. Secondly, analyzes the strategic new industry at home and abroad, and motivations and development status of the output model with the relationship between of dominant industry, with technology cycle model for strategic emerging industry development phase was studied and discussed. The latter part of the paper, mainly analyzed on the strategic new industry chain, regional spatial layout and financial support, finally obtains the strategic emergent industry development the general rule and the policy suggestion. The article synthesis utilization theoretical model construction, the industrial competition "five factor analytic methods", the industrial development stage's technical cycle and the technical froth model, the leading industry take turns to put into production model, as well as the industrial chain extends, the industry spatial arrangement and so on many kinds of research techniques, hoped that can have the direct-viewing and the comprehensive analysis.
《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》,确定了战略性新兴产业将成为国民经济的先导产业和支柱产业,主要包括节能环保、新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料和新能源汽车七个战略性新兴产业,其目的就是要推进产业结构升级、加快经济发展方式转变,构建国际竞争新优势、掌握发展的主动权。
本文根据我国加快经济发展方式转变与大力培育和发展战略性新兴产业的需要,将研究发展趋势、破解发展难题、设计实现机制、提出政策建议作为研究的基础和主线。本文首先从战略性新兴产业的界定入手,在对文献进行综述后,对战略性新兴产业的定义及风险、特点等进行了概述,并构建了发展战略性新兴产业的微观、宏观模型和技术周期模型。其次,分析了战略性新兴产业的国内外动因、发展现状,并用投入产出模型对其与主导产业之间的关系、用技术周期模型对战略性新兴产业的发展阶段进行了研究和探讨。论文的后半部分主要就战略性新兴产业的产业链、区域空间布局和金融支持进行了分析,最后得出战略性新兴产业发展的一般规律和政策建议。文章综合运用理论模型构建、产业竞争的“五因素分析法”、产业发展阶段的技术周期和技术泡沫模型、主导产业间轮换的投入产出模型,以及产业链延仲、产业空间布局等多种研究方法,以期对战略性新兴产业有一个直观而全面的分析。
Although China's economic aggregate has the highest in the world, but the productivity level is not high on the whole, irrational industrial structure, urban and rural, regional development imbalances, long-term structural problems and the extensive mode of growth has not fundamentally changed, industrialization, urban the rapid development of energy resources and the ecological environment with the contradictions are becoming increasingly prominent. China's independent innovation capability is not strong enough, as a whole the economic development technique content is not high, the key technologies and the core technologies are under the control of others, the precursive strategic high-tech domain science and technology strength is weak, the important industrial foreign technology level of dependency was still high. After the financial crisis, the world, especially the major powers have the development of new energy, new materials, information networks, biomedicine, energy saving, low-carbon technology, green economy, as the focus of a new round of industrial development. Therefore, through the development of strategic new industries to nurture new economic growth point, to seize the high ground of international economic and technological development has become the world's trend of accelerating the development of our country and for the development of new industries is a strategic imperative of great significance.
"The State Council About Speeds Up Cultivates And Develops Strategic Emergent industry Decision", had determined the strategic emergent industry will become the leading national industries and pillar industries, includingenergy saving and environmental protection、new generation of information technology、biology、high-end equipment manufacturing、new energy、new material、new energy vehicles。Its purpose is to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, accelerate the economic development mode, building a new international competitive advantage, grasp the initiative in development.
According to China's accelerated economic development patterns and to cultivate and develop the strategic needs of new industries, This article research the development trends, solve the problem of development, design and implementation mechanisms, make policy recommendations as a basis for research and the main line. Firstly, this article definit the strategic emerging industries in the review of the literature, summary the definition of strategic emerging industry risks and characteristics, and built the micro, the macro model and the technology cycle model of strategic emerging industries development. Secondly, analyzes the strategic new industry at home and abroad, and motivations and development status of the output model with the relationship between of dominant industry, with technology cycle model for strategic emerging industry development phase was studied and discussed. The latter part of the paper, mainly analyzed on the strategic new industry chain, regional spatial layout and financial support, finally obtains the strategic emergent industry development the general rule and the policy suggestion. The article synthesis utilization theoretical model construction, the industrial competition "five factor analytic methods", the industrial development stage's technical cycle and the technical froth model, the leading industry take turns to put into production model, as well as the industrial chain extends, the industry spatial arrangement and so on many kinds of research techniques, hoped that can have the direct-viewing and the comprehensive analysis.
引文
首都经济贸易大学博士学位论文 《战略性新兴产业发展与演化研究》2战略性新兴产业发展文献综述
2.1 关于战略性新兴产业的文献综述战略性新兴产业是近来我国提出的一个新概念,也是理论界和实际部门共同关注
①李晓华,吕铁.战略性新兴产业的特征与政策导向研究[J].宏观经济研究,2010(9)
②冯赫.关于战略性新兴产业的发展的若干思考[J].经济研究参考,2010(3)
③刘志阳,程海狮.战略性新兴产业的集群培育与网络特征[J].改革,2010(5)
④黄幸婷,杨煜.后危机时代战略性新兴产业发展研究——基于核心技术联盟知识创造过程的视角[J].中国科技论坛,2010(5)
⑤姜大鹏,顾新.我国战略性新兴产业的现状分析[J].科技进步与对策,2010(17)
⑥肖兴志.发展战略、产业升级与战略性新兴产业选择[J].财经问题研究,2010(8)
⑦姜江世界战略性新兴产业的发展动态与趋势[J].中国科技产业,2010(7)
⑧(美)迈克尔·波特,李明轩,邱如美(译).国家竞争优势[M].华夏出版礼,2002,02.
⑨Gereffi G.International Trade and Industrial Upgrading in the Apparel Commodity Chain[J], Journal of Intern ational Economics,1999(48), pp.37-70.
⑩Tichy G.Clusters:Less Dispensable and MoreRisky than Ever Clusters and Regional Specialisation[M].Publis hed by Pion Limited,207 Brondesbury Park, London,1998.
11 Philip Cooke.Regional innovation system:general findings and some new evidence from biotechnology cluster s[J].Journal of Technology Transfer,2002(27),:133-145.
12 Humphrey, J. Industrial reorganization in developing countries:From models to trajectories[J]. World Devel opment.1995,231:149-162.
13 Porter Michael E.Location, Competion and Economic Development:Location Clusters in a Global Econom y[M], Economic Development Quarterly, vol.14,2000, P15-20
14姜泽华.十一五时期我国产业结构升级目标的新突破[J].商业时代,2007(29)
15陈佳贵等.宏观调控目标的“十一五”分析与“十二五”展望[J].经济研究,2010(2)
16江小涓.中国开放三十年的回顾与展望[J].中国社会科学,2008(8)
17金凤君.“东北振兴”以来东北地区区域政策评价研究[J].经济地理,2010(8)
24 Romer, Paul. Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94, No.5, 1986, pp.1002-37.
25 Romer, Paul M.Endogenous Technological Change[J], Journal of Political Economy,1990, P:71-102, 26 Lucas, Robert E. On the Mechanism of Economic Development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol.22. no.1, March 1988, P:3-42
27 Caselli, Francesco and Wilbur John Coleman II.The world Technology Frontier[M].NBER Working Paper No. 7904,2000.
28 Basu, Susanto, Weil, David N. Appropriate Technology and Growth [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol.113, NO.4, November 1998, pp:1025-1054.
29 Daron Acemoglu, Fabrizio Zilibotti. Information Accumulation in Development[J].Journal of Economic Growth,4, March 1999, pp:5-38.
30林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.比较优势与发展战略——对“东亚奇迹”的再解释[J].中国社会科学,1999(5)
31林毅夫.后发优势与后发劣势——与杨小凯教授商榷[J]纤济学(季刊),2003(3)
32林毅夫,董先安.殷韦.技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛[J].财经问题研究,2004(6)
33任保平,洪银兴.新型工业化中经济效益提高的途径：种产业链视角的分析[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2005(1),pp47-54.
34蒋国俊.产业链理论及其稳定机制研究[J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1),pp36-38.
35郑学益.构筑产业链,形成核心竞争力[J].福建改革,2000(8),pp14-15.
36盛宇华,潘持存.供应链管理及虚拟产业链[M].科学出版社,2004-10,pp139-140
37魏农建.产业链整合与中小企业经营策略[J].青海师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003(2),pp6-9
38曹芳.王凯.农业产业链管理理论与实践研究综述[J],农业技术研究,2004(1)
39冯炳英.企业要重视产业链整合[J].经济论坛,2004(13)
40朱毅华,王凯.农业产业链整合实证研究—以南京市为例[J],南京社会科学,2004(7)
41熊义杰,郝思羽.产业集群发展与区域产业结构演进[J].财经论坛.2007(3)：128-129
42徐传谌,谢地.产业经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2007
43张秀生.中国区域产业结构演进与优化[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2005.
44 Hirsch, F. The Bagehot problem[J]. Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies,1977(45). pp241-57.
45熊彼特,叶华(译).经济周期循环论[M].长安出版社,2009-08.
46 Kashyap, A. K., Stein, J. C. and Wilcox, D. W., Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions:Evidence from the Composition of External Finance, The American Economic Review,1993,83(1),78-98.
47夏斌.中小企业融资政策的制度创新思考[J].中国金融,2003(18)
48刘涛.中国经济波动的信贷解释：增长与调控[J].世界经济,2003(12)
49付亚斌,李成,黄顺绪.我国银行信贷对经济增长的贡献测度[J].统计与决策,2007(8)
50李成,袁静文,黄顺绪.银行信贷对经济增长贡献度的地区差异研究[J].统计与决策,2007(16)
51郭明,等.我国银行信贷对三次产业增长贡献度的差异研究[J].产业经济研究,2009(1)
52王忠宏,石光.战略性新兴产业的选择应遵循六大准则[N].新华日报,2010-01-12
53何维达.新兴产业要突进不要冒进[N].人民日报海外版,2010-03-29
55 Lin, Justin Yifu.Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Convergence[M].the Inaugural D. Gale Johnson Lecture, presented at the University of Chicago on May 14,2001.
56 Shaohua Chen and Yan Wang, China's Growth and Poverty Reduction:Recent Trends between 1990and 1999[Z].The World Bank, working paper, July 18.2001.
57徐高.比较优势发展战略,最优产业结构及自生能力[Z].北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿,2005
58或者分别是中低级技术产业和高技术产业,以及农业和工业等。当产业数大于2时,本文结论不变。
59张东刚.消费需求变动与近代中国经济增长[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(3)
62朱彬.产业规模与比较优势发展战略：一个理论框架[J].当代经济科学,2005(6)
64哈里·S·登特.下一个大泡泡：历史上最大的牛市[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2009.10
66卡萝塔·佩蕾丝,田方萌等译.技术革命与金融资本(泡沫与黄金时代的动力学)[M].北京：中国人民大学,2007.10
67 Kentaro Katayama.Why Does Japan's Saving Rate Decline So Rapidly?[R].Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 2006.1.http://www.eaber.org/intranet/documents/23/1109/PRI_Katayama_2006.pdf
68李克强.关于调整经济结构促进持续发展的几个问题[J].求是,2010(11)
69牛立超,祝尔娟.后经济危机时代战略性新兴产业发展的国际比较[C].2010年度京津冀区域协作论坛论文集,2010-07
75国家信息中心.战略性新兴产业助力经济振兴[N].中国证券报,2010-08-18
76国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部课题组.中国产业振兴与转型升级(国务院发展研究中心研究丛书)[M].中国发展出版社,2010-09-01
77国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定国发[2010]32号[OL]中国政府网http://www.gov.cn /zwgk/2010-10/18/content_1724848.htm
78日本.通商产业省通商产业政策史编纂委员会,中国.日本通商产业政策史编译委员会.日本通商产业政策史[M].北京：中国青年出版社,1997.1
79王琥生,赵军山.战后日本经济社会统计：1950-1986[M].北京：航空工业出版社,1988.12
80都重留人.现代日本经济[M].北京：北京出版社,1980.2
84皓然.战略新兴：故事刚刚开始[N].证券导刊,2010-12-13
85张君.新兴产业中极具投资机会的15个子行业[J].山西能源与节能,2010(12)
86文言.新能源汽车正在崛起的新兴产业龙头[N].中国有色金属报,2010-12-23
87五年规划搭建“黄金犀”新兴产业谁是“颜如玉”[N].中国证券报,2011-01-04
88WWF.能源报告[R].2011.2.http://www.wwfchina.org/wwfpress/presscenter/pressdetail.shtm?id=1161
97本部分参考祝尔娟教授主持的北京市教委“科研基地-科技创新平台”项目《京津冀都市圈产业升级路径研究—从战略性新兴产业与重化工业互动的视角》的研究成果,在此深表感谢。
98《天津经济》课题组：仲成春,赵立华,张莎莎,燕中州,邴兴国,孟力,虞冬青,张丽恒.做好低碳经济方显大天津本色[J].天津经济,2010(3)
100牛立超,祝尔娟.首都圈城市间的合作与治理机制——以京津为例的‘个讨论[C].奥运后首都国际化进程的新趋势与新挑战——2008城市国际化论坛论文集,2008-10
101《财务成本管理》编委会.财务成本管理[M].清华大学出版社,2009-10
102编委会.最新银行贷款审查、审批、发放操作规范与企业信用评级标准参数对照实用全书[M].中国知识出版社,2008-10
107牛立超,祝尔娟.后经济危机时代战略性新兴产业发展的国际比较[C].2010年度京津冀区域协作论坛论文集,201007
108时杰.战略性新兴产业发展中的政府角色[IJ].理论参考,2010(11)
109郎咸平.产业链阴谋[M].东方出版社,2010-04
[1]. Achanga, P., Shehab, E., Roy, R.,& Nelder, G.. Criticalsuccess factors for lean implementa tion within SMEs[J]. Journalof Manufacturing Technology Management,2006,17(4),460-47 1.
[2]. Bair, J.. Global capitalism and commodity chains:looking back, going forward[M]. Compet ition and Change,2005,9(2),153-180.
[3]. Beckmann,M.J.The Analysis of Spatial Diffusion Processes[J].Papers of Regional Science As socation,1970(25):109-117
[4]. Boudeville,J.R.Problems of Regional Economic Planning[M].Edinburgh University Press,196 6.
[5]. Christaller,W.. English Translation:The Central Places of Southern Germany[M].Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs NJ,1966.
[6]. Dixit,A.K. and Stiglitz,J.E.Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity[J]. Am erican Economic Review,1977(67):297-308
[7]. Gereffi, G.. International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain[J]. Journal of International Economics,1999,48(1),37-70.
[8]. Hamid, L., Stern, N. and Taylor, C.'Reflections on the Stern Review (2) A Growing Inter national Opportunity to Move Strongly on Climate Change' [J]. World Economics,2007,8 (1),169.
[9]. Howard Geller. The Experience with Energy Efficiency Policies and Programs in IEA Coun tries:Learning from the Critics[J],Paris:International Energy Agency,2005(5),35.
[10].Humphrey, J.,& Schmitz, H. How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading i n industrial clusters? [J]. Regional Studies,36(9),2002,1017-1027
[11].Hotellng,H.Stability in Competition[J].Economic Journal,1929(3):41-57
[12].Harris,C.D.The Market as a Factor in the Localisation of Production[J].Annals of the Assoc iation of American Geographers,1954(44):315-348
[13].Fujita,M.and Krugman,P.The New Economic Geography:Past.Present and the Future[J].Papers in Regional Science,2004(83):139-164
[14].Kahn, Z., Bali, R.K, and Wickramasinghe, N. (2007). Developing an BPI framework and P AM for SMEs. Industrial Management+Data Systems,107(3),345-362.
[15].Krugman,P.Space:the final frontier[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1998a(12):161-174
[16].Krugman,P.Development,Geography and Economic Theory[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1 995.
[17].Kitching, J.'A burden on business? Reviewing the evidence base on regulation and small-business performance'[J]. Environment and Planning C:Government and Policy,2006,24,79 9-814.
[18].Keith Bradsher. China's Green Energy Gap[M], New York Times,2007-11-24.
[19].Sternad, S., Bobek, S., Dezelak, Z., and Lampret, A. Critical success factors for enterprise resource planning solution implementation in SMEs:What does matter for business integrati on. International[J]. Journal of Enterprise Information Systems,2009,5(3),27-47.
[20].Welker, G.A., van der Vaart, T., and Pieter van Donk, D.The influence of business conditio ns on supply chain information-sharing mechanisms:A study among supply chain links of SMEs[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2008,113(2),206-720.
[21].John Rumsey, Jonathan Wheatley. Poor Practices Taint Brazil's Ehanol Exports[J], Financial Times,2008-5-20.
[22].McKinsey Global Institute, Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth:The Energy Productivi ty Opportunity[M], San Francisco,2007(5).173.
[23].Shah, R.,& Ward, P. T. Defining and developing measuresof lean production[J]. Journal of Operations Management,2007,25(4),785-805.
[24].Technopak.. Strategies for textile and apparel manufacturers in the post-quota era:prospect s to 2015[M]. Textile Outlook International,2007,July-August,152-167.
[25]. Porter,M.E.Clusters and the New Economics of Competition[J].Harvard Business Review,19 98(Nov.-Dec.):77-90
[26].Von Thunen J.H.English Translation:Wartenberg,C.M. Von Thunen's Isolated State[M].Perga mon Press,Oxford,1966.
[27].Losch,A. English Translation:The Economics of Location[M].Yale University Press,New Hav en CT,1954.
[28].Perroux,F.Economic Space:Theory and Application[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1950(6 4):89-104
[29].Perroux,F.Note sur la notion de 'pole de croissance'[J].Economique Appliquee,1955(8):307-3 20(Translated in I.Livingstone(ed.),Economic Policy for Development,Baltimore,MD:Penguin,1 971,pp.278-289)
[30].lsard,W.Location and the Space Economy[M]. Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1956.
[31].Pred,A.The Spatial Dynamics of US Urban-Industrial Growth,1800-1914[M]. Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,1966.
[32].Starrett,D.Market Allocations of Location Choice in a Model with Free Mobility[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1978(17):21-37
[33].Brander,J.and Krugman,P.R.A "Reciprocal Dumping"Model of International Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1983(15):313-321
[34].Krugman,P.R.Increasing Returns and Economic Geography [J].Journal of Political Economy,19 91a(99):483-499
[35].Krugman,P.R.The Self-Organizing Economy[M].Blackwell,Cambridge MA,1996.
[36].Gersbach,H.and Schmutzler,A. External Spillovers,Internal Spillovers and the Geography of Production and Innovation[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1999(99):679-696
[37]. Venables,A.J.Equilibrium Locations of Vertically linked Industries[J].International Economic Review,1996(37):341-359
[38].Venables, A.J.and N.limao.Geographical Disadvantage:A Heckscher-Ohlin-Von Thunen Model of International Specialisation[C].World Bank Policy Research Paper, NO.2256,1999.
[39].Lanaspa,L.F.and Sanz,F.Multiple equilibria,stability,and asymmetries in Krugman's Core-Perip hery Model[J]. Papers in Regional Science,2001(80):425-438
[40].Matsushima,N.and Matsumura,T.Mixed Oligopoly and Spatial Agglomeration[J].Canadian Jour nal of Economics(Vol.36,No.1):62-87
[41].Bertola,A.Models of Economic Integration and Localised Growth[A].1993,pp.159-192 in F.To rres and F.Giavazzi,eds.,Adjustment and Growth in the European Union(Cambridge,England: CEPR and Cambridge University Press,1993
[42].Englmann,F.C. and Walz.U.Indusrial Centres and Regional Growth in the Presence of Local Inputs[J].Journal of Regional Science,1995(35):3-27
[43].Walz,U.Transport Cost,Intermediate Goods, and Localized Growth[J].Regional Science and U rban Economics,1996(26):671-695
[44].Baldwin,R.E.Agglomeration and Endogenous Capital[J].European Economic Review,1999(Vol. 43,No.2):253-280
[45].Martin,P.and Ottaviano,G.I.P.Growing Locations:Industry Location in a Model of Endogenous Growth[C].CEPR Discussion Paper Series,No.1523,1997(European Economic Review,1999(4 3):281-302).
[46].Baldwin,R.and Forslid,R.Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth[J].Journal of Internatio nal Economics,2000(Vol.50, No.2):497-517
[47].Baldwin, R.and Forslid, R.The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth[J].Economic a,2000(67):307-324
[48].Martin,P.and Ottaviano,G.l.P.Growth and Agglomeration[J].International Economic Review,200 1(Vol.42,No.4):947-968
[49].Crafts,N. and Venables, A.J.Globalization in History:A Geographical Perspective[C].CEPR Di scussion Papers 3079,2001.
[50].Beaudry,C.and Swann,P.Growth in Industrial Cluster:A Birds Eye View of the United Kingd om,SIEPR[C].Discussion Paper,No.00-38,2001.
[51].Leo,V.D.B.,Braun,E.and Winden,W.V.Growth Clusters in European Cities:an Integral Approac h[J].Urban Studies,2001(Vol.38,No.1):185-205
[52].Fan,C.C. and Scott,A.J.Industrial Agglomeration and Development:A Survey of Spatial Econ omic Issues in East Asia and a Statistical Analysis of Chinese Regions[J].Economic Geogra phy,2003(Vol.79,No.3):295-319
[53].Barro,R.J. and Sala-I-Martin,X.Convergence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,(100):223-2 51
[54].Agrawal V, Kothare M, Rao RKS, Wadhwa P. Bid-ask spreads, informed investors, and the firm's financial condition. Q. Rev. Econ. Financ.,2004,44(1):58-76.
[55].Erdogmus S, Koc E. Multi-criteria selection for a wind observation station location using a nalytic hierarchy process[J]. Renewab. Energy,1997,29:1383-1392.
[56].Belton V. Stewart TJ. Multiple criteria decision analysis:An integrated approach[M]. Bosto n:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2002
[57].Byun DH. The AHP approach for selecting an automobile purchase model[M]. Info. Manag e.,2001,38(5):289-297.
[58].Chang CW, Wu CR, Lin CT, Lin HL. Evaluating the digital video recorder systems evalua ting digital video recorder systems using analytic hierarchy and analytic network pro cesses[M]. Info. Sci.,2007,177(6):3383-3396.
[59].Chang SW, Lin MC. Design and implementation of a case-based reasoning system for mar keting plans[M]. Expert Syst. Appl.,2005,28:43-53.
[60].Delbecq AL, Van de Ven AH, Gustafson DH. Group techniques for program planning:A g uide to nominal group and Delphi process[M]. New Jersey:Scott, Forestman and Company. 1975
[61].Dell'Ariccia G, Marquez R. Information and bank credit allocation[M]. J. Financ. Econ.,20 04,72(1):185-214.
[62]. Ferrari P. A method for choosing from among alternative transportation projects[M]. Eur. J. Oper. Res.2003,150(1):194-203.
[63].Forgionne GA, Kohli R. A multi-criteria assessment of decision technology system and jour nal quality[M]. Info. Manage.,2001,38(7):421-435.
[64]. Hwang HS. Web-based multi-attribute analysis model for engineering project evaluation[C]. Comput. Ind. Eng.,2004,46:669-678.
[65].Jose LS, Ines H. An AHP-based methodology to rank critical success factors of executive i nformation systems[M]. Comput. Standards Interfaces.,2005,28:1-12.
[66].Khalil MIA. Selecting the appropriate project delivery method using AHP[J]. Int. J. Projec t Manage.,2002,20:469-474.
[67].Kima SS, Yang IO, Yeo MS, Kim KW. Development of a housing performance evaluatio n model for multi-family residential buildings in Korea[J]. Build. Environ.,2005,40:1103-11 16.
[68].Lopez JA, Saidenberg MR. Evaluating credit risk models[J]. J. Bank. Financ.,2000,24(1-2), 151-165.
[69]. Love I, Preve LA, Sarria-Allende V. Trade credit and bank credit:Evidence from recent fi nancial crises[J]. J. Financ. Econ.,83(2):453-469.
[70].Meade LM, Presley A. R and D project selection using the analytic network process[J]. IE EE Transact. Eng. Manage.,2002,49(1):59-66. Meade LM, Sarkis J. Analyzing organizational project alternatives for agile manufacturing processes-An analytical network approach[J]. International J. Prod. Res.,1999,37(2):241-261.
[71].Mollaghasemi M, Pet-Edwards J. Making multiple-objective decisions[J]. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.1997
[72].Murry JW, Hammons JO. Delphi:A versatile methodology for conducting qualitative resear ch[M]. Rev. Higher Educ.,1995,18(4),423-436.
[73].Ngai, E. W. T.Selection of web sites for online advertising using AHP[J]. Info. Manage.,2 003,40(4):233-242.
[74].Niinimaki, J. P. Evergreening in banking[M]. Financ. Stability,2007.3(4):368-393.
[75]. Ravi V, Shankar R, Tiwari MK. Analyzing alternatives in reverse logistics for end-of-life c omputers:ANP and balanced scorecard approach[M]. Comput. Ind. Eng.,2005,48:327-356.
[76].Saaty TL. Decision making with dependence and feedback:The analytic network process [M]. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh.1996
[77]. Tam MCY, Tummala VMR. An application of the AHP in vendor selection of a telecomm unications system[M]. Omega,2001,29(2):171-182.
[78].Tolgaa E,Demircana ML, Kahraman, C.Operating system selecion using fuzzy replacement a nalysis and analytic hierarchy process[J]. Int. J. Prod. Econ.,2005,97:89-117.
[79].Wagner W, Marsh IW. Credit risk transfer and financial sector stability[J]. J. Financ. Stabili ty,2006,2(2):173-193.
[80]. Wu CR, Chang CW, Lin HL. An organizational performance measurement model based on AHP sensitivity analysis[J]. Int. J. Bus. Perform. Manage.,2007,9(1):77-91.
[81].Wu CR, Chin-Tsai L, Tsai PH. Analysing alternative in financial services for wealth manag ement banks:The analytic network process and the balanced scorecard approach[J]. IMA J. Manage. Math,2009,20(3):303-321.
[82]. Wu CR, Lin CT, Tsai PH.Evaluating business performance of wealth management banks[J]. Eur. J. Oper. Res.,2010,207(2):971-979.
[83].Yurdakul M,. Measuring long-term performance of a manufacturing firm using the analytic network process (ANP) approach[J]. Int. J. Prod. Res.,2003,41(11):2501-2529.
[84].Dempsey, S., and Griffin, J.Integrated Information Systems:Choosing the Best System for Your Organization[J]. Accountancy Ireland,2007,39(6),64-67
[85].贺正楚,张训,周震虹.战略性新兴产业的选择与评价及实证分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,(12).
[86].胡海峰,孙飞.我国战略性新兴产业培育中的金融支持体系研究[J].新视野,2010,(06).
[87].何祚庥.占领战略性新兴产业“制高点”,首先必须打好“理论仗”[J].科技导报,2010,(24).
[88].钟清流.战略性新兴产业的推进策略[J].经济研究导刊,2010,(23).
[89].朱李鸣.加快培育战略性新兴产业：“十二五”优化产业结构重中之“重”[J].浙江社会科学,2010,(12).
[90].工忠文.战略性新兴产业与天津经济发展[J].天津经济,2010,(08).
[91].朱瑞博.推进上海战略性新兴产业发展对策研究[J].科学发展,2010,(12).
[92].欧雅捷,林迎星.战略性新兴产业创新系统构建的基础探讨[J].技术经济,2010,(12).
[93].黄先海.浙江发展战略性新兴产业的基本思路与对策建议[J].浙江社会科学,2010,(12)
[94].方荣贵,银路,王敏.新兴技术向战略性新兴产业演化中政府政策分析[J].技术经济,2010,(12).
[95].赵刚.“战略新兴产业赵刚大讲堂”系列战略性新兴产业要重点关注商业模式创新[J].中国科技财富,2010,(23).
[96].李邃,江可申,郑兵云.新兴产业与中国产业结构优化升级有序度研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,(12).
[97].欧阳峣,生延超.战略性新兴产业研究述评[J]湖南社会科学,2010,(05).
[98].于淑娥,张炳君.培育战略性新兴产业,构筑青岛产业竞争新优势[J].环渤海经济瞭望,2010,(08).
[99]. 欧阳峣.我国转型期发展战略性新兴产业的思考[J].湖南商学院学报,2010,(04).
[100]邹德文,姜涛.基于战略性新兴产业的经济发展方式转变研究[J].理论月刊,2011,(01).
[101]刘川.珠三角发展战略性新兴产业研究[J].商业文化(学术版),2010,(08).
[102]童汝根.支持战略性新兴产业人力资本投入的财税政策[J].税务研究,2010,(08)
[103]温太璞.发达国家战略性产业政策和贸易政策的理论思考和启示[J].商业研究,2001,(10).
[104]张晔.新兴战略性产业的进入管制与管制绩效——以我国手机“牌照制度”的实践为例[J].产业经济研究,2009,(()1).
[105]上益民,宋琰纹.全球牛产网络效庆、集群封闭性及其“升级悖论”——基于大陆台商笔记本电脑产业集群的分析[J].中国工业经济,2007,(04).
[106]夏杰长,刘奕,顾乃华.制造业的服务化和服务业的知识化[J].国外社会科学,2007,(04).
[107]来有为.“制造企业服务化”的发展路径和典型模式[J].中国发展观察,2009,(03).
[108]毛艳华.珠三角增长模式：特征、影响与转型[J].广东社会科学,2009,(05).
[109]张若雪.人力资本、技术采用与产业结构升级[J].财经科学,2010,(02).
[110]裴长洪,郑文.发展新兴战略性产业：制造业与服务业并重[J].当代财经,2010,(01).
[111]龙永图.发展中国家发展高端产业的经验及启示[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2009,(01).
[112]陈莞,谢富纪.大都市圈空间结构研究评述：区域经济发展与知识创造[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,(12).
[113]吴贵生,谢伟.“破坏性创新”与组织响应[J].科学学研究,1997,(04).
[114]陈莞,谢富纪.基于大都市圈创新体系视角的知识密集型服务业创新功能研究[J].技术经济,2009,(08).
[115]柳卸林.区域创新体系成立的条件和建设的关键因素[J].中国科技论坛,2003,(01).
[116]彭纪生,仲为国,孙文祥.政策测量、政策协同演变与经济绩效：基于创新政策的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008,(09).
[117]程跃,银路.基于企业动态能力的新兴技术演化模型及案例研究[J].管理学报,2010,(01).
[118]张鹏.我国高科技产业创业政策体系研究[J].科学管理研究,2003,(04).
[119]黄培伦,尚航标,王三木,李海峰.企业能力：静态能力与动态能力理论界定及关系辨析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,(07).
[120]王敏,银路.技术推动型与市场拉动型新兴技术演化模式对比研究——基于动态战略管理的视角[J].科学学研究,2008,(S1).
[121]张钢,彭学兵.创业政策对技术创业影响的实证研究[J].科研管理,2008,(03).
[122]宋丽敏,陈阳.新兴技术商业化的制约因素分析及其发展对策[J].经济研究导刊,2009,(18)
[123]工敏,银路.新兴技术演化模式研究及其管理启示[J].技术经济,2009,(11).
[124]王敏,银路.新兴技术演化的整体性分析框架：“三要素多层次”共生演化机理研究[J].技术经济,2010,(02).
[125]聂祖荣.高校成果转化模式[J].中国高校科技与产业化,2002,(11).
[126]董书礼.新兴技术商业化与政府作用[J].中国科技论坛,2008,(05).
[127]朱雪祎,方存好,孟硕.区域技术创新体系中的市场失灵与政府政策选择的研究[J].中国软科学,2007,(05).
[128]程跃,银路,李天柱.企业能力与新兴技术的共生演化——基于锐捷网络公司的案例研究[J].研究与发展管理,2009,(06).
[129]高峻峰.政府政策对新兴技术演化的影响——以我国TD-SCDMA移动通讯技术的演化为例[J].中国软科学,2010,(02).
2.1 关于战略性新兴产业的文献综述战略性新兴产业是近来我国提出的一个新概念,也是理论界和实际部门共同关注
①李晓华,吕铁.战略性新兴产业的特征与政策导向研究[J].宏观经济研究,2010(9)
②冯赫.关于战略性新兴产业的发展的若干思考[J].经济研究参考,2010(3)
③刘志阳,程海狮.战略性新兴产业的集群培育与网络特征[J].改革,2010(5)
④黄幸婷,杨煜.后危机时代战略性新兴产业发展研究——基于核心技术联盟知识创造过程的视角[J].中国科技论坛,2010(5)
⑤姜大鹏,顾新.我国战略性新兴产业的现状分析[J].科技进步与对策,2010(17)
⑥肖兴志.发展战略、产业升级与战略性新兴产业选择[J].财经问题研究,2010(8)
⑦姜江世界战略性新兴产业的发展动态与趋势[J].中国科技产业,2010(7)
⑧(美)迈克尔·波特,李明轩,邱如美(译).国家竞争优势[M].华夏出版礼,2002,02.
⑨Gereffi G.International Trade and Industrial Upgrading in the Apparel Commodity Chain[J], Journal of Intern ational Economics,1999(48), pp.37-70.
⑩Tichy G.Clusters:Less Dispensable and MoreRisky than Ever Clusters and Regional Specialisation[M].Publis hed by Pion Limited,207 Brondesbury Park, London,1998.
11 Philip Cooke.Regional innovation system:general findings and some new evidence from biotechnology cluster s[J].Journal of Technology Transfer,2002(27),:133-145.
12 Humphrey, J. Industrial reorganization in developing countries:From models to trajectories[J]. World Devel opment.1995,231:149-162.
13 Porter Michael E.Location, Competion and Economic Development:Location Clusters in a Global Econom y[M], Economic Development Quarterly, vol.14,2000, P15-20
14姜泽华.十一五时期我国产业结构升级目标的新突破[J].商业时代,2007(29)
15陈佳贵等.宏观调控目标的“十一五”分析与“十二五”展望[J].经济研究,2010(2)
16江小涓.中国开放三十年的回顾与展望[J].中国社会科学,2008(8)
17金凤君.“东北振兴”以来东北地区区域政策评价研究[J].经济地理,2010(8)
24 Romer, Paul. Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94, No.5, 1986, pp.1002-37.
25 Romer, Paul M.Endogenous Technological Change[J], Journal of Political Economy,1990, P:71-102, 26 Lucas, Robert E. On the Mechanism of Economic Development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol.22. no.1, March 1988, P:3-42
27 Caselli, Francesco and Wilbur John Coleman II.The world Technology Frontier[M].NBER Working Paper No. 7904,2000.
28 Basu, Susanto, Weil, David N. Appropriate Technology and Growth [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol.113, NO.4, November 1998, pp:1025-1054.
29 Daron Acemoglu, Fabrizio Zilibotti. Information Accumulation in Development[J].Journal of Economic Growth,4, March 1999, pp:5-38.
30林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.比较优势与发展战略——对“东亚奇迹”的再解释[J].中国社会科学,1999(5)
31林毅夫.后发优势与后发劣势——与杨小凯教授商榷[J]纤济学(季刊),2003(3)
32林毅夫,董先安.殷韦.技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛[J].财经问题研究,2004(6)
33任保平,洪银兴.新型工业化中经济效益提高的途径：种产业链视角的分析[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2005(1),pp47-54.
34蒋国俊.产业链理论及其稳定机制研究[J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1),pp36-38.
35郑学益.构筑产业链,形成核心竞争力[J].福建改革,2000(8),pp14-15.
36盛宇华,潘持存.供应链管理及虚拟产业链[M].科学出版社,2004-10,pp139-140
37魏农建.产业链整合与中小企业经营策略[J].青海师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003(2),pp6-9
38曹芳.王凯.农业产业链管理理论与实践研究综述[J],农业技术研究,2004(1)
39冯炳英.企业要重视产业链整合[J].经济论坛,2004(13)
40朱毅华,王凯.农业产业链整合实证研究—以南京市为例[J],南京社会科学,2004(7)
41熊义杰,郝思羽.产业集群发展与区域产业结构演进[J].财经论坛.2007(3)：128-129
42徐传谌,谢地.产业经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2007
43张秀生.中国区域产业结构演进与优化[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2005.
44 Hirsch, F. The Bagehot problem[J]. Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies,1977(45). pp241-57.
45熊彼特,叶华(译).经济周期循环论[M].长安出版社,2009-08.
46 Kashyap, A. K., Stein, J. C. and Wilcox, D. W., Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions:Evidence from the Composition of External Finance, The American Economic Review,1993,83(1),78-98.
47夏斌.中小企业融资政策的制度创新思考[J].中国金融,2003(18)
48刘涛.中国经济波动的信贷解释：增长与调控[J].世界经济,2003(12)
49付亚斌,李成,黄顺绪.我国银行信贷对经济增长的贡献测度[J].统计与决策,2007(8)
50李成,袁静文,黄顺绪.银行信贷对经济增长贡献度的地区差异研究[J].统计与决策,2007(16)
51郭明,等.我国银行信贷对三次产业增长贡献度的差异研究[J].产业经济研究,2009(1)
52王忠宏,石光.战略性新兴产业的选择应遵循六大准则[N].新华日报,2010-01-12
53何维达.新兴产业要突进不要冒进[N].人民日报海外版,2010-03-29
55 Lin, Justin Yifu.Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Convergence[M].the Inaugural D. Gale Johnson Lecture, presented at the University of Chicago on May 14,2001.
56 Shaohua Chen and Yan Wang, China's Growth and Poverty Reduction:Recent Trends between 1990and 1999[Z].The World Bank, working paper, July 18.2001.
57徐高.比较优势发展战略,最优产业结构及自生能力[Z].北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿,2005
58或者分别是中低级技术产业和高技术产业,以及农业和工业等。当产业数大于2时,本文结论不变。
59张东刚.消费需求变动与近代中国经济增长[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(3)
62朱彬.产业规模与比较优势发展战略：一个理论框架[J].当代经济科学,2005(6)
64哈里·S·登特.下一个大泡泡：历史上最大的牛市[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2009.10
66卡萝塔·佩蕾丝,田方萌等译.技术革命与金融资本(泡沫与黄金时代的动力学)[M].北京：中国人民大学,2007.10
67 Kentaro Katayama.Why Does Japan's Saving Rate Decline So Rapidly?[R].Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 2006.1.http://www.eaber.org/intranet/documents/23/1109/PRI_Katayama_2006.pdf
68李克强.关于调整经济结构促进持续发展的几个问题[J].求是,2010(11)
69牛立超,祝尔娟.后经济危机时代战略性新兴产业发展的国际比较[C].2010年度京津冀区域协作论坛论文集,2010-07
75国家信息中心.战略性新兴产业助力经济振兴[N].中国证券报,2010-08-18
76国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部课题组.中国产业振兴与转型升级(国务院发展研究中心研究丛书)[M].中国发展出版社,2010-09-01
77国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定国发[2010]32号[OL]中国政府网http://www.gov.cn /zwgk/2010-10/18/content_1724848.htm
78日本.通商产业省通商产业政策史编纂委员会,中国.日本通商产业政策史编译委员会.日本通商产业政策史[M].北京：中国青年出版社,1997.1
79王琥生,赵军山.战后日本经济社会统计：1950-1986[M].北京：航空工业出版社,1988.12
80都重留人.现代日本经济[M].北京：北京出版社,1980.2
84皓然.战略新兴：故事刚刚开始[N].证券导刊,2010-12-13
85张君.新兴产业中极具投资机会的15个子行业[J].山西能源与节能,2010(12)
86文言.新能源汽车正在崛起的新兴产业龙头[N].中国有色金属报,2010-12-23
87五年规划搭建“黄金犀”新兴产业谁是“颜如玉”[N].中国证券报,2011-01-04
88WWF.能源报告[R].2011.2.http://www.wwfchina.org/wwfpress/presscenter/pressdetail.shtm?id=1161
97本部分参考祝尔娟教授主持的北京市教委“科研基地-科技创新平台”项目《京津冀都市圈产业升级路径研究—从战略性新兴产业与重化工业互动的视角》的研究成果,在此深表感谢。
98《天津经济》课题组：仲成春,赵立华,张莎莎,燕中州,邴兴国,孟力,虞冬青,张丽恒.做好低碳经济方显大天津本色[J].天津经济,2010(3)
100牛立超,祝尔娟.首都圈城市间的合作与治理机制——以京津为例的‘个讨论[C].奥运后首都国际化进程的新趋势与新挑战——2008城市国际化论坛论文集,2008-10
101《财务成本管理》编委会.财务成本管理[M].清华大学出版社,2009-10
102编委会.最新银行贷款审查、审批、发放操作规范与企业信用评级标准参数对照实用全书[M].中国知识出版社,2008-10
107牛立超,祝尔娟.后经济危机时代战略性新兴产业发展的国际比较[C].2010年度京津冀区域协作论坛论文集,201007
108时杰.战略性新兴产业发展中的政府角色[IJ].理论参考,2010(11)
109郎咸平.产业链阴谋[M].东方出版社,2010-04
[1]. Achanga, P., Shehab, E., Roy, R.,& Nelder, G.. Criticalsuccess factors for lean implementa tion within SMEs[J]. Journalof Manufacturing Technology Management,2006,17(4),460-47 1.
[2]. Bair, J.. Global capitalism and commodity chains:looking back, going forward[M]. Compet ition and Change,2005,9(2),153-180.
[3]. Beckmann,M.J.The Analysis of Spatial Diffusion Processes[J].Papers of Regional Science As socation,1970(25):109-117
[4]. Boudeville,J.R.Problems of Regional Economic Planning[M].Edinburgh University Press,196 6.
[5]. Christaller,W.. English Translation:The Central Places of Southern Germany[M].Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs NJ,1966.
[6]. Dixit,A.K. and Stiglitz,J.E.Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity[J]. Am erican Economic Review,1977(67):297-308
[7]. Gereffi, G.. International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain[J]. Journal of International Economics,1999,48(1),37-70.
[8]. Hamid, L., Stern, N. and Taylor, C.'Reflections on the Stern Review (2) A Growing Inter national Opportunity to Move Strongly on Climate Change' [J]. World Economics,2007,8 (1),169.
[9]. Howard Geller. The Experience with Energy Efficiency Policies and Programs in IEA Coun tries:Learning from the Critics[J],Paris:International Energy Agency,2005(5),35.
[10].Humphrey, J.,& Schmitz, H. How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading i n industrial clusters? [J]. Regional Studies,36(9),2002,1017-1027
[11].Hotellng,H.Stability in Competition[J].Economic Journal,1929(3):41-57
[12].Harris,C.D.The Market as a Factor in the Localisation of Production[J].Annals of the Assoc iation of American Geographers,1954(44):315-348
[13].Fujita,M.and Krugman,P.The New Economic Geography:Past.Present and the Future[J].Papers in Regional Science,2004(83):139-164
[14].Kahn, Z., Bali, R.K, and Wickramasinghe, N. (2007). Developing an BPI framework and P AM for SMEs. Industrial Management+Data Systems,107(3),345-362.
[15].Krugman,P.Space:the final frontier[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1998a(12):161-174
[16].Krugman,P.Development,Geography and Economic Theory[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1 995.
[17].Kitching, J.'A burden on business? Reviewing the evidence base on regulation and small-business performance'[J]. Environment and Planning C:Government and Policy,2006,24,79 9-814.
[18].Keith Bradsher. China's Green Energy Gap[M], New York Times,2007-11-24.
[19].Sternad, S., Bobek, S., Dezelak, Z., and Lampret, A. Critical success factors for enterprise resource planning solution implementation in SMEs:What does matter for business integrati on. International[J]. Journal of Enterprise Information Systems,2009,5(3),27-47.
[20].Welker, G.A., van der Vaart, T., and Pieter van Donk, D.The influence of business conditio ns on supply chain information-sharing mechanisms:A study among supply chain links of SMEs[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2008,113(2),206-720.
[21].John Rumsey, Jonathan Wheatley. Poor Practices Taint Brazil's Ehanol Exports[J], Financial Times,2008-5-20.
[22].McKinsey Global Institute, Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth:The Energy Productivi ty Opportunity[M], San Francisco,2007(5).173.
[23].Shah, R.,& Ward, P. T. Defining and developing measuresof lean production[J]. Journal of Operations Management,2007,25(4),785-805.
[24].Technopak.. Strategies for textile and apparel manufacturers in the post-quota era:prospect s to 2015[M]. Textile Outlook International,2007,July-August,152-167.
[25]. Porter,M.E.Clusters and the New Economics of Competition[J].Harvard Business Review,19 98(Nov.-Dec.):77-90
[26].Von Thunen J.H.English Translation:Wartenberg,C.M. Von Thunen's Isolated State[M].Perga mon Press,Oxford,1966.
[27].Losch,A. English Translation:The Economics of Location[M].Yale University Press,New Hav en CT,1954.
[28].Perroux,F.Economic Space:Theory and Application[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1950(6 4):89-104
[29].Perroux,F.Note sur la notion de 'pole de croissance'[J].Economique Appliquee,1955(8):307-3 20(Translated in I.Livingstone(ed.),Economic Policy for Development,Baltimore,MD:Penguin,1 971,pp.278-289)
[30].lsard,W.Location and the Space Economy[M]. Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1956.
[31].Pred,A.The Spatial Dynamics of US Urban-Industrial Growth,1800-1914[M]. Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,1966.
[32].Starrett,D.Market Allocations of Location Choice in a Model with Free Mobility[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1978(17):21-37
[33].Brander,J.and Krugman,P.R.A "Reciprocal Dumping"Model of International Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1983(15):313-321
[34].Krugman,P.R.Increasing Returns and Economic Geography [J].Journal of Political Economy,19 91a(99):483-499
[35].Krugman,P.R.The Self-Organizing Economy[M].Blackwell,Cambridge MA,1996.
[36].Gersbach,H.and Schmutzler,A. External Spillovers,Internal Spillovers and the Geography of Production and Innovation[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1999(99):679-696
[37]. Venables,A.J.Equilibrium Locations of Vertically linked Industries[J].International Economic Review,1996(37):341-359
[38].Venables, A.J.and N.limao.Geographical Disadvantage:A Heckscher-Ohlin-Von Thunen Model of International Specialisation[C].World Bank Policy Research Paper, NO.2256,1999.
[39].Lanaspa,L.F.and Sanz,F.Multiple equilibria,stability,and asymmetries in Krugman's Core-Perip hery Model[J]. Papers in Regional Science,2001(80):425-438
[40].Matsushima,N.and Matsumura,T.Mixed Oligopoly and Spatial Agglomeration[J].Canadian Jour nal of Economics(Vol.36,No.1):62-87
[41].Bertola,A.Models of Economic Integration and Localised Growth[A].1993,pp.159-192 in F.To rres and F.Giavazzi,eds.,Adjustment and Growth in the European Union(Cambridge,England: CEPR and Cambridge University Press,1993
[42].Englmann,F.C. and Walz.U.Indusrial Centres and Regional Growth in the Presence of Local Inputs[J].Journal of Regional Science,1995(35):3-27
[43].Walz,U.Transport Cost,Intermediate Goods, and Localized Growth[J].Regional Science and U rban Economics,1996(26):671-695
[44].Baldwin,R.E.Agglomeration and Endogenous Capital[J].European Economic Review,1999(Vol. 43,No.2):253-280
[45].Martin,P.and Ottaviano,G.I.P.Growing Locations:Industry Location in a Model of Endogenous Growth[C].CEPR Discussion Paper Series,No.1523,1997(European Economic Review,1999(4 3):281-302).
[46].Baldwin,R.and Forslid,R.Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth[J].Journal of Internatio nal Economics,2000(Vol.50, No.2):497-517
[47].Baldwin, R.and Forslid, R.The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth[J].Economic a,2000(67):307-324
[48].Martin,P.and Ottaviano,G.l.P.Growth and Agglomeration[J].International Economic Review,200 1(Vol.42,No.4):947-968
[49].Crafts,N. and Venables, A.J.Globalization in History:A Geographical Perspective[C].CEPR Di scussion Papers 3079,2001.
[50].Beaudry,C.and Swann,P.Growth in Industrial Cluster:A Birds Eye View of the United Kingd om,SIEPR[C].Discussion Paper,No.00-38,2001.
[51].Leo,V.D.B.,Braun,E.and Winden,W.V.Growth Clusters in European Cities:an Integral Approac h[J].Urban Studies,2001(Vol.38,No.1):185-205
[52].Fan,C.C. and Scott,A.J.Industrial Agglomeration and Development:A Survey of Spatial Econ omic Issues in East Asia and a Statistical Analysis of Chinese Regions[J].Economic Geogra phy,2003(Vol.79,No.3):295-319
[53].Barro,R.J. and Sala-I-Martin,X.Convergence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,(100):223-2 51
[54].Agrawal V, Kothare M, Rao RKS, Wadhwa P. Bid-ask spreads, informed investors, and the firm's financial condition. Q. Rev. Econ. Financ.,2004,44(1):58-76.
[55].Erdogmus S, Koc E. Multi-criteria selection for a wind observation station location using a nalytic hierarchy process[J]. Renewab. Energy,1997,29:1383-1392.
[56].Belton V. Stewart TJ. Multiple criteria decision analysis:An integrated approach[M]. Bosto n:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2002
[57].Byun DH. The AHP approach for selecting an automobile purchase model[M]. Info. Manag e.,2001,38(5):289-297.
[58].Chang CW, Wu CR, Lin CT, Lin HL. Evaluating the digital video recorder systems evalua ting digital video recorder systems using analytic hierarchy and analytic network pro cesses[M]. Info. Sci.,2007,177(6):3383-3396.
[59].Chang SW, Lin MC. Design and implementation of a case-based reasoning system for mar keting plans[M]. Expert Syst. Appl.,2005,28:43-53.
[60].Delbecq AL, Van de Ven AH, Gustafson DH. Group techniques for program planning:A g uide to nominal group and Delphi process[M]. New Jersey:Scott, Forestman and Company. 1975
[61].Dell'Ariccia G, Marquez R. Information and bank credit allocation[M]. J. Financ. Econ.,20 04,72(1):185-214.
[62]. Ferrari P. A method for choosing from among alternative transportation projects[M]. Eur. J. Oper. Res.2003,150(1):194-203.
[63].Forgionne GA, Kohli R. A multi-criteria assessment of decision technology system and jour nal quality[M]. Info. Manage.,2001,38(7):421-435.
[64]. Hwang HS. Web-based multi-attribute analysis model for engineering project evaluation[C]. Comput. Ind. Eng.,2004,46:669-678.
[65].Jose LS, Ines H. An AHP-based methodology to rank critical success factors of executive i nformation systems[M]. Comput. Standards Interfaces.,2005,28:1-12.
[66].Khalil MIA. Selecting the appropriate project delivery method using AHP[J]. Int. J. Projec t Manage.,2002,20:469-474.
[67].Kima SS, Yang IO, Yeo MS, Kim KW. Development of a housing performance evaluatio n model for multi-family residential buildings in Korea[J]. Build. Environ.,2005,40:1103-11 16.
[68].Lopez JA, Saidenberg MR. Evaluating credit risk models[J]. J. Bank. Financ.,2000,24(1-2), 151-165.
[69]. Love I, Preve LA, Sarria-Allende V. Trade credit and bank credit:Evidence from recent fi nancial crises[J]. J. Financ. Econ.,83(2):453-469.
[70].Meade LM, Presley A. R and D project selection using the analytic network process[J]. IE EE Transact. Eng. Manage.,2002,49(1):59-66. Meade LM, Sarkis J. Analyzing organizational project alternatives for agile manufacturing processes-An analytical network approach[J]. International J. Prod. Res.,1999,37(2):241-261.
[71].Mollaghasemi M, Pet-Edwards J. Making multiple-objective decisions[J]. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.1997
[72].Murry JW, Hammons JO. Delphi:A versatile methodology for conducting qualitative resear ch[M]. Rev. Higher Educ.,1995,18(4),423-436.
[73].Ngai, E. W. T.Selection of web sites for online advertising using AHP[J]. Info. Manage.,2 003,40(4):233-242.
[74].Niinimaki, J. P. Evergreening in banking[M]. Financ. Stability,2007.3(4):368-393.
[75]. Ravi V, Shankar R, Tiwari MK. Analyzing alternatives in reverse logistics for end-of-life c omputers:ANP and balanced scorecard approach[M]. Comput. Ind. Eng.,2005,48:327-356.
[76].Saaty TL. Decision making with dependence and feedback:The analytic network process [M]. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh.1996
[77]. Tam MCY, Tummala VMR. An application of the AHP in vendor selection of a telecomm unications system[M]. Omega,2001,29(2):171-182.
[78].Tolgaa E,Demircana ML, Kahraman, C.Operating system selecion using fuzzy replacement a nalysis and analytic hierarchy process[J]. Int. J. Prod. Econ.,2005,97:89-117.
[79].Wagner W, Marsh IW. Credit risk transfer and financial sector stability[J]. J. Financ. Stabili ty,2006,2(2):173-193.
[80]. Wu CR, Chang CW, Lin HL. An organizational performance measurement model based on AHP sensitivity analysis[J]. Int. J. Bus. Perform. Manage.,2007,9(1):77-91.
[81].Wu CR, Chin-Tsai L, Tsai PH. Analysing alternative in financial services for wealth manag ement banks:The analytic network process and the balanced scorecard approach[J]. IMA J. Manage. Math,2009,20(3):303-321.
[82]. Wu CR, Lin CT, Tsai PH.Evaluating business performance of wealth management banks[J]. Eur. J. Oper. Res.,2010,207(2):971-979.
[83].Yurdakul M,. Measuring long-term performance of a manufacturing firm using the analytic network process (ANP) approach[J]. Int. J. Prod. Res.,2003,41(11):2501-2529.
[84].Dempsey, S., and Griffin, J.Integrated Information Systems:Choosing the Best System for Your Organization[J]. Accountancy Ireland,2007,39(6),64-67
[85].贺正楚,张训,周震虹.战略性新兴产业的选择与评价及实证分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,(12).
[86].胡海峰,孙飞.我国战略性新兴产业培育中的金融支持体系研究[J].新视野,2010,(06).
[87].何祚庥.占领战略性新兴产业“制高点”,首先必须打好“理论仗”[J].科技导报,2010,(24).
[88].钟清流.战略性新兴产业的推进策略[J].经济研究导刊,2010,(23).
[89].朱李鸣.加快培育战略性新兴产业：“十二五”优化产业结构重中之“重”[J].浙江社会科学,2010,(12).
[90].工忠文.战略性新兴产业与天津经济发展[J].天津经济,2010,(08).
[91].朱瑞博.推进上海战略性新兴产业发展对策研究[J].科学发展,2010,(12).
[92].欧雅捷,林迎星.战略性新兴产业创新系统构建的基础探讨[J].技术经济,2010,(12).
[93].黄先海.浙江发展战略性新兴产业的基本思路与对策建议[J].浙江社会科学,2010,(12)
[94].方荣贵,银路,王敏.新兴技术向战略性新兴产业演化中政府政策分析[J].技术经济,2010,(12).
[95].赵刚.“战略新兴产业赵刚大讲堂”系列战略性新兴产业要重点关注商业模式创新[J].中国科技财富,2010,(23).
[96].李邃,江可申,郑兵云.新兴产业与中国产业结构优化升级有序度研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,(12).
[97].欧阳峣,生延超.战略性新兴产业研究述评[J]湖南社会科学,2010,(05).
[98].于淑娥,张炳君.培育战略性新兴产业,构筑青岛产业竞争新优势[J].环渤海经济瞭望,2010,(08).
[99]. 欧阳峣.我国转型期发展战略性新兴产业的思考[J].湖南商学院学报,2010,(04).
[100]邹德文,姜涛.基于战略性新兴产业的经济发展方式转变研究[J].理论月刊,2011,(01).
[101]刘川.珠三角发展战略性新兴产业研究[J].商业文化(学术版),2010,(08).
[102]童汝根.支持战略性新兴产业人力资本投入的财税政策[J].税务研究,2010,(08)
[103]温太璞.发达国家战略性产业政策和贸易政策的理论思考和启示[J].商业研究,2001,(10).
[104]张晔.新兴战略性产业的进入管制与管制绩效——以我国手机“牌照制度”的实践为例[J].产业经济研究,2009,(()1).
[105]上益民,宋琰纹.全球牛产网络效庆、集群封闭性及其“升级悖论”——基于大陆台商笔记本电脑产业集群的分析[J].中国工业经济,2007,(04).
[106]夏杰长,刘奕,顾乃华.制造业的服务化和服务业的知识化[J].国外社会科学,2007,(04).
[107]来有为.“制造企业服务化”的发展路径和典型模式[J].中国发展观察,2009,(03).
[108]毛艳华.珠三角增长模式：特征、影响与转型[J].广东社会科学,2009,(05).
[109]张若雪.人力资本、技术采用与产业结构升级[J].财经科学,2010,(02).
[110]裴长洪,郑文.发展新兴战略性产业：制造业与服务业并重[J].当代财经,2010,(01).
[111]龙永图.发展中国家发展高端产业的经验及启示[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2009,(01).
[112]陈莞,谢富纪.大都市圈空间结构研究评述：区域经济发展与知识创造[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,(12).
[113]吴贵生,谢伟.“破坏性创新”与组织响应[J].科学学研究,1997,(04).
[114]陈莞,谢富纪.基于大都市圈创新体系视角的知识密集型服务业创新功能研究[J].技术经济,2009,(08).
[115]柳卸林.区域创新体系成立的条件和建设的关键因素[J].中国科技论坛,2003,(01).
[116]彭纪生,仲为国,孙文祥.政策测量、政策协同演变与经济绩效：基于创新政策的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008,(09).
[117]程跃,银路.基于企业动态能力的新兴技术演化模型及案例研究[J].管理学报,2010,(01).
[118]张鹏.我国高科技产业创业政策体系研究[J].科学管理研究,2003,(04).
[119]黄培伦,尚航标,王三木,李海峰.企业能力：静态能力与动态能力理论界定及关系辨析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,(07).
[120]王敏,银路.技术推动型与市场拉动型新兴技术演化模式对比研究——基于动态战略管理的视角[J].科学学研究,2008,(S1).
[121]张钢,彭学兵.创业政策对技术创业影响的实证研究[J].科研管理,2008,(03).
[122]宋丽敏,陈阳.新兴技术商业化的制约因素分析及其发展对策[J].经济研究导刊,2009,(18)
[123]工敏,银路.新兴技术演化模式研究及其管理启示[J].技术经济,2009,(11).
[124]王敏,银路.新兴技术演化的整体性分析框架：“三要素多层次”共生演化机理研究[J].技术经济,2010,(02).
[125]聂祖荣.高校成果转化模式[J].中国高校科技与产业化,2002,(11).
[126]董书礼.新兴技术商业化与政府作用[J].中国科技论坛,2008,(05).
[127]朱雪祎,方存好,孟硕.区域技术创新体系中的市场失灵与政府政策选择的研究[J].中国软科学,2007,(05).
[128]程跃,银路,李天柱.企业能力与新兴技术的共生演化——基于锐捷网络公司的案例研究[J].研究与发展管理,2009,(06).
[129]高峻峰.政府政策对新兴技术演化的影响——以我国TD-SCDMA移动通讯技术的演化为例[J].中国软科学,2010,(02).