顾客资产变化的监测模型研究
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摘要
随着技术、信息的进一步快速发展,以市场为导向的竞争战略已经不能够适应企业生存的需要,企业间的竞争已经开始转向以“顾客为中心”了。从营销理论自身的发展来看,从追求顾客满意到以顾客忠诚为目标的品牌和关系营销,再到顾客价值理论的出现,无不把顾客放到了至高无上的位置,企业致力于实现的就是顾客资产的最大化,而这一目标需要通过对顾客资产的管理来实现,而经营顾客资产的效果,也需要从具体方案实施后顾客价值的变化来评判。因此,论文关于顾客资产变化的监测方法的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。
论文梳理了国内外有关顾客资产理论的相关研究成果,并以此为基础对顾客资产变化的监测方法进行了深入研究。论文详细阐述了顾客资产的基本理论,明确了顾客资产的概念和特征及构成,并以Rust等人关于顾客资产驱动要素的相关研究为基础,分析了顾客资产变化的构成及影响因素。
论文建立了顾客资产变化的监测模型,模型最终得到了顾客资产指数以反映顾客资产的变化情况。在建模过程中,全面分析了监测顾客资产变化的指标,按照一定的原则选取了监测顾客资产变化的指标,用企业实际经营中真实存在的、可以计算或者通过专业调查机构获得的指标,取代了其它计量顾客资产价值的模型中那些操作性不强的、不易获得的指标;然后,研究了确定权重常用的四种方法,即层次分析法、德尔菲法、熵值法和模糊聚类法,对四种方法的优缺点进行了说明和比较,并给了各种方法的使用情况的建议,企业应该根据实际情况采取不同的权重确定方法。而在使用说明中,论文结合企业实际情况,运用了基于专家动态权重的群组AHP权重确定方法,解决了群组确定层次分析法矩阵时最终结果如何确定的问题。最后,本文以HS公司为例对企业如何运用本模型进行了详尽的说明,并针对应用的结果给HS公司的顾客资产管理提供了合理的建议。
论文还指出了模型的主要功能,并指出了企业应如何改进其信息系统以改进和扩大模型的功能。
With the rapid development of technology and information, the market-oriented competitive strategy has been not able to adapt to the needs of enterprises. The competition among enterprises has begun to shift to the "customer-centered." Let’s see the development of the marketing theory itself. From the pursuit of customer satisfaction to customer loyalty which is the goal of the brand and relationship marketing, and to the emergence of the“Customer Value”theory, they all put the customers in the supreme position, and the enterprise is committed to achieving the maximum customer equity. This objective needs to be achieved through the Customer Equity Management. The effects of Customer Equity Management should be evaluated from the changes in customer equity after the implementation of specific programmes. Thus, this paper is of great theoretical and practical significance with the research on monitoring model of the changes in customer equity.
This paper has combed the domestic and foreign concerned customer equity theory and has carried on a thorough analysis to the monitoring model of the changes in customer equity. The paper elaborates on the basic theory of customer equity and defines the concept, characteristics and composition of customer equity. Then based on the relevant research on customer-driven elements of Rust et all, this paper analyses the impact elements of changes in customer equity.
The paper established a model monitoring changes in customer equity,and the model has given us the customer equity index to reflect changes in customer equity. In the modeling process, this paper takes a comprehensive analysis of monitoring indicators of changes in customer equity. In accordance with some certain principles of selection, some indicators have been selected to monitor changes in customer equity. These indicators are easily gained in the real enterprises operating, or can be calculated by a professional survey Institutions, replacing the indicators of other measuring model of customer equity which are not easy accessed and operated. Then the paper describes four commonly used methods(AHP, the Delphi method, Entropy Value method and Fuzzy Clustering) on how to determine the weight of the indicators briefly, explains the advantages and disadvantages of the four methods and proposes the use of the four methods. Enterprises should choose the proper methods in accordance with the real situation. In the instructions of using the model(Part 4 of the paper),considering the situation of the HS company, the paper chooses the method of the group AHP based on dynamic weights of experts to determine the weight of the indicators. This method tells how to determine the final outcome when the different experts of the group give the different AHP matrixes. Finally, taking the HS Company for example, this paper gives detailed descriptions of how to use the model and gives reasonable suggestions on customer equity management due to the result of the model.
This paper also points out the main function of the model, and notes how to improve the information system of the enterprises to improve and expand the function of the model.
论文梳理了国内外有关顾客资产理论的相关研究成果,并以此为基础对顾客资产变化的监测方法进行了深入研究。论文详细阐述了顾客资产的基本理论,明确了顾客资产的概念和特征及构成,并以Rust等人关于顾客资产驱动要素的相关研究为基础,分析了顾客资产变化的构成及影响因素。
论文建立了顾客资产变化的监测模型,模型最终得到了顾客资产指数以反映顾客资产的变化情况。在建模过程中,全面分析了监测顾客资产变化的指标,按照一定的原则选取了监测顾客资产变化的指标,用企业实际经营中真实存在的、可以计算或者通过专业调查机构获得的指标,取代了其它计量顾客资产价值的模型中那些操作性不强的、不易获得的指标;然后,研究了确定权重常用的四种方法,即层次分析法、德尔菲法、熵值法和模糊聚类法,对四种方法的优缺点进行了说明和比较,并给了各种方法的使用情况的建议,企业应该根据实际情况采取不同的权重确定方法。而在使用说明中,论文结合企业实际情况,运用了基于专家动态权重的群组AHP权重确定方法,解决了群组确定层次分析法矩阵时最终结果如何确定的问题。最后,本文以HS公司为例对企业如何运用本模型进行了详尽的说明,并针对应用的结果给HS公司的顾客资产管理提供了合理的建议。
论文还指出了模型的主要功能,并指出了企业应如何改进其信息系统以改进和扩大模型的功能。
With the rapid development of technology and information, the market-oriented competitive strategy has been not able to adapt to the needs of enterprises. The competition among enterprises has begun to shift to the "customer-centered." Let’s see the development of the marketing theory itself. From the pursuit of customer satisfaction to customer loyalty which is the goal of the brand and relationship marketing, and to the emergence of the“Customer Value”theory, they all put the customers in the supreme position, and the enterprise is committed to achieving the maximum customer equity. This objective needs to be achieved through the Customer Equity Management. The effects of Customer Equity Management should be evaluated from the changes in customer equity after the implementation of specific programmes. Thus, this paper is of great theoretical and practical significance with the research on monitoring model of the changes in customer equity.
This paper has combed the domestic and foreign concerned customer equity theory and has carried on a thorough analysis to the monitoring model of the changes in customer equity. The paper elaborates on the basic theory of customer equity and defines the concept, characteristics and composition of customer equity. Then based on the relevant research on customer-driven elements of Rust et all, this paper analyses the impact elements of changes in customer equity.
The paper established a model monitoring changes in customer equity,and the model has given us the customer equity index to reflect changes in customer equity. In the modeling process, this paper takes a comprehensive analysis of monitoring indicators of changes in customer equity. In accordance with some certain principles of selection, some indicators have been selected to monitor changes in customer equity. These indicators are easily gained in the real enterprises operating, or can be calculated by a professional survey Institutions, replacing the indicators of other measuring model of customer equity which are not easy accessed and operated. Then the paper describes four commonly used methods(AHP, the Delphi method, Entropy Value method and Fuzzy Clustering) on how to determine the weight of the indicators briefly, explains the advantages and disadvantages of the four methods and proposes the use of the four methods. Enterprises should choose the proper methods in accordance with the real situation. In the instructions of using the model(Part 4 of the paper),considering the situation of the HS company, the paper chooses the method of the group AHP based on dynamic weights of experts to determine the weight of the indicators. This method tells how to determine the final outcome when the different experts of the group give the different AHP matrixes. Finally, taking the HS Company for example, this paper gives detailed descriptions of how to use the model and gives reasonable suggestions on customer equity management due to the result of the model.
This paper also points out the main function of the model, and notes how to improve the information system of the enterprises to improve and expand the function of the model.
引文
1 M. J. Dorsch, L. Carlson. A Transaction Approach to Understanding and Managing Customer Equity. Journal of Business Research.1996, (35):253~264
2 R. Blattberg, J. Deighton. Manage Marketing by the Customer Equity Test.Harvard Business Review. 1996, (8-10): 136~144
3 Rust, V. A. Zeithaml, K. N. Lemon. Driving Customer Equity: How Customer Lifetime Value Is Reshaping Corporate Strategy. The Free Press.2000: 14, 112~120, 121~128, 209
4 F. Leyland, T. Michael and B. Pierre. Turning Compefifive Advantage into Customer Equity. Business Horizons. 2000, (9-10): 11~18
5 Blattberg, G. Getz, S. T. Jacquelyn. Customer Equity: Building and Managing Relationships as Valuable Assets. Harvard Business School Press. 2001:134~150, 128~142
6 B.Tomas, G.Jens, B.Hans.Customer Equity Marketing:Touching the Intangible. European Management Journal. 2002, 20(3): 213~222
7 D. Taeschler. Metrical Approaches to Customer Equity through CRM. Gráfica.e CRM Corp. 2002, (2): 1~18
8 R. T. Rust, K. N. Lemon, V. A. Zeithaml. Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Jounal of Marketing. 2004, (1):109~127
9汪涛,徐岚.顾客资产与竞争优势.中国软科学. 2002, (1): 52~56
10汪涛,徐岚.顾客资产的构成与测量.经济管理. 2002, (24): 48~52
11徐伟青.论现代企业顾客满意观和顾客资产观.商业研究. 2003,(6):96~99
12于坤章,谢峰.顾客资产的实质与特性.湖南大学学报(社会科学版).2005, (1): 53~57
13吴勇毅,王金宝.从品牌资产转向顾客资产.品牌战略. 2002, (10): 42~43
14 K. N. Lemon, R. T. Rust, and V. Zeithaml. What Drives Customer Equity: A Company’s Current Customers Provide the Most Reliable Source of Future Revenues and Profits. Marketing Management. 2001, 10(1): 20~25
15 R. N. Bolton, K. N. Lemon and P. C. Verhoef. The Theoretical Underpinnings of Customer Asset Management: A Framework and Propositions for Future Research. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. 2004, 32(3): 271~292
16卫海英,王贵明.品牌资产构成的关键因素及其类型探讨.预测. 2003,22(3):39~43
17周镭.顾客资产的研究现状及存在问题.经济师. 2004, (1): 11~12
18 C. Gurau, A.Ranchhod. How to Calculate the Value of a Customer——Measuring customer satisfaction: A Platform for Calculating, Predicting and Increasing Customer Profitability. Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing. 2002, (3): 203~219
19 H. Lu, J. C. Lin. Predicting Customer Behavior in the Marketspace a Study of Rayport and Sviokle’s Framework. Information and Management. 2002,40(1): 1~10
20 G. Boyce. Valuing Customers and Loyalty: the Rhetoric of Customer Focus versus the Reality of Alienation and Exclusion of (Devalued) Customers.Critical Perspectives on Accounting. 2000, 11(6): 649~689
21 R. T. Rust, K. N. Lemon, V. A. Zeithaml. Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Jounal of Marketing. 2004, (1):109~12
22 P. D. Berger, B. Weinberg and R. C. Hanna. Customer Lifetime Value Determination and Strategic Implications for a Cruiseship Company.Database Marketing and Customer Strategy Management. 2003, (1): 40~52
23 P. D. Berger, N. I. Nasr. Customer Lifetime Value: Marketing Models and Applications. Journal of Interactive Marketing. 1998, (12): 17~30
24 R.Blattberg, J.Deighton. Manage Marketing by the Customer Equity Test.Harvard Business Review. 1996, (8-10): 136~144
25 R. F. Dwyer. Customer Lifetime Valuation to Support Marketing Decision Making. Journal of Direct Marketing. 1997, 11(4): 6~13
26 P. E. Pfeifer, R. L. Carraway. Modeling Customer Relationships as Markov Chains. Journal of Interactive Marketing. 2000, 14(2): 43~55
27 D.C.Schmittlein, D.G. Morrison and R. Colombo. Counting Your Customers:Who Are They and What Will They Do Next? Management Science. 1987,33(1): 1~24
28 Reinartz, V. Kumar. On the Profitability of Long Lifetime Customers: An Empirical Investigation and Implications for Marketing. Journal of Marketing. 2000a, 64(10): 17~35
29 D. C.Schmittlein, R. A. Peterson. Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application.Marketing Science. 1994, 13(1): 41~67
30 R.C.Blattberg, J.S.Thomas.Valuing, Analyzing and Managing the MarketingFunction Using Customer Equity Principles. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University, Evanston. 2000: 135~138
31 R. C. Blattberg, J. S. Thomas. Dynamic Pricing Strategies to Maximize Customer Equity. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. 1997
32汪纯孝,韩小芸,田金梅.顾客资产管理.商业经济文荟. 2002, (2):33~35
33范德成,贾爱梅.企业顾客资产的综合评价体系研究.商业研究. 2004,(8): 105~107
34马杰,温小霓.顾客资产价值综合评价.价值工程. 2004, (2): 31~34
35刘向阳.顾客资产价值预测模型及其在营销决策中的应用.数量经济技术经济研究. 2003, (10): 158~161
36韩选利.顾客价值管理探析.中外企业家. 2004, (7): 64~66
37李正权.把潜在顾客变为现实顾客.世界标准化与质量管理.2001,(7):22~24
38罗兰T.拉斯特,弗莱丽A.齐森尔,凯瑟琳N.勒门.驾驭顾客资产.企业管理出版社. 2001: 2, 35~8, 82~85, 12, 251
39王靖,张金锁.综合评价中确定权重向量的几种方法比较.河北工业大学学报.2001, 30 (2):53~57
40张学志,陈功玉. AHP与Delphi法相结合确定供应商评价指标权重.物流技术.2005,(9):72
41邵景波.顾客资产测量与提升研究.哈尔滨工业大学博士论文.2007:100~101
42刘鹏,张园林,晏湘涛,匡兴华.基于专家动态权重的群组AHP交互式决策方法.数学的实践与认识.2007,37(13):85~88
2 R. Blattberg, J. Deighton. Manage Marketing by the Customer Equity Test.Harvard Business Review. 1996, (8-10): 136~144
3 Rust, V. A. Zeithaml, K. N. Lemon. Driving Customer Equity: How Customer Lifetime Value Is Reshaping Corporate Strategy. The Free Press.2000: 14, 112~120, 121~128, 209
4 F. Leyland, T. Michael and B. Pierre. Turning Compefifive Advantage into Customer Equity. Business Horizons. 2000, (9-10): 11~18
5 Blattberg, G. Getz, S. T. Jacquelyn. Customer Equity: Building and Managing Relationships as Valuable Assets. Harvard Business School Press. 2001:134~150, 128~142
6 B.Tomas, G.Jens, B.Hans.Customer Equity Marketing:Touching the Intangible. European Management Journal. 2002, 20(3): 213~222
7 D. Taeschler. Metrical Approaches to Customer Equity through CRM. Gráfica.e CRM Corp. 2002, (2): 1~18
8 R. T. Rust, K. N. Lemon, V. A. Zeithaml. Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Jounal of Marketing. 2004, (1):109~127
9汪涛,徐岚.顾客资产与竞争优势.中国软科学. 2002, (1): 52~56
10汪涛,徐岚.顾客资产的构成与测量.经济管理. 2002, (24): 48~52
11徐伟青.论现代企业顾客满意观和顾客资产观.商业研究. 2003,(6):96~99
12于坤章,谢峰.顾客资产的实质与特性.湖南大学学报(社会科学版).2005, (1): 53~57
13吴勇毅,王金宝.从品牌资产转向顾客资产.品牌战略. 2002, (10): 42~43
14 K. N. Lemon, R. T. Rust, and V. Zeithaml. What Drives Customer Equity: A Company’s Current Customers Provide the Most Reliable Source of Future Revenues and Profits. Marketing Management. 2001, 10(1): 20~25
15 R. N. Bolton, K. N. Lemon and P. C. Verhoef. The Theoretical Underpinnings of Customer Asset Management: A Framework and Propositions for Future Research. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. 2004, 32(3): 271~292
16卫海英,王贵明.品牌资产构成的关键因素及其类型探讨.预测. 2003,22(3):39~43
17周镭.顾客资产的研究现状及存在问题.经济师. 2004, (1): 11~12
18 C. Gurau, A.Ranchhod. How to Calculate the Value of a Customer——Measuring customer satisfaction: A Platform for Calculating, Predicting and Increasing Customer Profitability. Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing. 2002, (3): 203~219
19 H. Lu, J. C. Lin. Predicting Customer Behavior in the Marketspace a Study of Rayport and Sviokle’s Framework. Information and Management. 2002,40(1): 1~10
20 G. Boyce. Valuing Customers and Loyalty: the Rhetoric of Customer Focus versus the Reality of Alienation and Exclusion of (Devalued) Customers.Critical Perspectives on Accounting. 2000, 11(6): 649~689
21 R. T. Rust, K. N. Lemon, V. A. Zeithaml. Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Jounal of Marketing. 2004, (1):109~12
22 P. D. Berger, B. Weinberg and R. C. Hanna. Customer Lifetime Value Determination and Strategic Implications for a Cruiseship Company.Database Marketing and Customer Strategy Management. 2003, (1): 40~52
23 P. D. Berger, N. I. Nasr. Customer Lifetime Value: Marketing Models and Applications. Journal of Interactive Marketing. 1998, (12): 17~30
24 R.Blattberg, J.Deighton. Manage Marketing by the Customer Equity Test.Harvard Business Review. 1996, (8-10): 136~144
25 R. F. Dwyer. Customer Lifetime Valuation to Support Marketing Decision Making. Journal of Direct Marketing. 1997, 11(4): 6~13
26 P. E. Pfeifer, R. L. Carraway. Modeling Customer Relationships as Markov Chains. Journal of Interactive Marketing. 2000, 14(2): 43~55
27 D.C.Schmittlein, D.G. Morrison and R. Colombo. Counting Your Customers:Who Are They and What Will They Do Next? Management Science. 1987,33(1): 1~24
28 Reinartz, V. Kumar. On the Profitability of Long Lifetime Customers: An Empirical Investigation and Implications for Marketing. Journal of Marketing. 2000a, 64(10): 17~35
29 D. C.Schmittlein, R. A. Peterson. Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application.Marketing Science. 1994, 13(1): 41~67
30 R.C.Blattberg, J.S.Thomas.Valuing, Analyzing and Managing the MarketingFunction Using Customer Equity Principles. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University, Evanston. 2000: 135~138
31 R. C. Blattberg, J. S. Thomas. Dynamic Pricing Strategies to Maximize Customer Equity. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. 1997
32汪纯孝,韩小芸,田金梅.顾客资产管理.商业经济文荟. 2002, (2):33~35
33范德成,贾爱梅.企业顾客资产的综合评价体系研究.商业研究. 2004,(8): 105~107
34马杰,温小霓.顾客资产价值综合评价.价值工程. 2004, (2): 31~34
35刘向阳.顾客资产价值预测模型及其在营销决策中的应用.数量经济技术经济研究. 2003, (10): 158~161
36韩选利.顾客价值管理探析.中外企业家. 2004, (7): 64~66
37李正权.把潜在顾客变为现实顾客.世界标准化与质量管理.2001,(7):22~24
38罗兰T.拉斯特,弗莱丽A.齐森尔,凯瑟琳N.勒门.驾驭顾客资产.企业管理出版社. 2001: 2, 35~8, 82~85, 12, 251
39王靖,张金锁.综合评价中确定权重向量的几种方法比较.河北工业大学学报.2001, 30 (2):53~57
40张学志,陈功玉. AHP与Delphi法相结合确定供应商评价指标权重.物流技术.2005,(9):72
41邵景波.顾客资产测量与提升研究.哈尔滨工业大学博士论文.2007:100~101
42刘鹏,张园林,晏湘涛,匡兴华.基于专家动态权重的群组AHP交互式决策方法.数学的实践与认识.2007,37(13):85~88