上市公司财务绩效评价方法研究
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摘要
随着我国市场经济体制的建立和不断完善,股份公司制已成为现代企业的基本组织形式,股票市场为企业的发展壮大提供了重要的融资场所。据统计,截至2008年8月我国境内上市公司己达1863家(A、B股)。这些上市公司成为我国经济运行的重要微观主体,因而对其绩效状况进行综合评价分析成为业界和学术界研究的热门课题。
对于我国上市公司财务的绩效评价研究,各机构和研究者提出了不同的研究思路和评价方法,有待于对各方法进行比较研究。本文希望通过对各方法进行比较研究,探讨多种评价方法组合运用的新思路。
本文分为以下五个部分:
第一部分,前言。介绍了绩效评价问题的起源、在国内外的发展状况、本文的研究角度与相关定义以及研究的意义。
第二部分,对目前常用的国有资金绩效评价体系、沃尔评价指标体系、EVA评价体系、“证星—若山风向标”上市公司财务评测系统以及清华大学与《中国证券报》联合推出的上市公司财务绩效排序体系进行了评析,并指出了这5种指标评价体系存在的不足之处。
第三部分,上市公司财务绩效评价指标体系的设置。首先提出了设置财务绩效评价指标体系应遵循的原则,然后建立了上市公司财务绩效综合评价指标体系。
第四部分是全文的核心部分,探讨了上市公司财务绩效综合评价的方法。首先,介绍了上市公司绩效评价由单指标的会计评价到多指标的综合数理评价的发展过程。其次,详细阐述了多指标财务绩效综合评价方法的两个核心内容:第一,原始数据的预处理,包括了剔除行业的不可比影响、指标的同向化处理、指标的无量纲化处理;第二,指标权重的确定方法,包括了主观赋权与客观赋权,并详细介绍了这两种赋权中较为流行的几种方法,其中主观赋权有德尔菲法、成对比较法、连环比率法、层次分析法,客观赋权有主成分分析法、因子分析法、熵值法、变异系数法。接下来,针对使用一种评价方法存在的局限性探讨了多种评价方法的组合运用,其中介绍了序号总和及众数理论,并在此基础上提出了区间数综合决策模型,然后进一步给出了多种评价方法优劣判断的思路。
第五部分,以传统钢铁行业36家上市公司的财务数据为例进行了实证分析。在实证中,首先选取了本文所介绍的三种客观赋权法:主成分分析法、因子分析法、变异系数法对36家上市公司进行评价排序,并分析了三种方法的评价差异性,然后对三种评价方法进行组合运用并得到了组合排序结果,最后以组合排序结果为参照系对三种客观赋权法作了优劣判断,得出因子分析方法优于其他两种方法的结论。
本文的创新在于提出了多种评价方法组合运用的新思路,本文并不局限于以往文献追求对某一种具体评价方法的改进,事实上,方法不论怎样改进,仅使用一种方法进行评价是片面的,因此本文提出的组合运用思路具有重要的现实意义。需要指出的是虽然本文在实证中选用的是客观赋权法,但评价方法的组合运用具有普遍的适用性。
论文在研究过程中运用了理论与实际相结合,定性与定量分析相结合的方法,并以定量分析为主。在实证分析中主要运用SPSS、SAS、EXCEL等软件作为分析工具进行分析。
由于自身学识和水平有限,文中述及问题难免存在疏漏和不足,敬请各位评审老师和答辩老师批评、指正,学生必将谨记各位老师的谆谆教诲,在今后的工作中坚持不懈的学习,对该问题作进一步的研究。
Along with the establishment and improvement of market economy of China, the stock company has become the modern enterprise's primary tissue form. The stock market for development and growth of enterprises has provided an important financing place. According to statistics, to August 2008, listed companies have reached 1863 (A and B shares) in China. These listed companies are becoming the major-micro-part of China's economy which makes the comprehensive evaluation and analysis of its profit-making state become popular projects.
What about the study of the financial performance evaluation of listed companies, researchers put forward the idea of different research and evaluation methods which were to be compared and researched. This article hopes for a comparative study of various ways to explore a variety of evaluation methods to use combinations of new ideas.
This article is divided into five parts:
Part one is a foreword. It introduced the origin of performance evaluation, the domestic and foreign developmental condition, the angle of research and the related definition as well as the significance of research.
Part two has analyzed the five performance evaluation system of the commonly used and pointed out the defects which exist in these evaluation systems.
Part three establishes the comprehensive evaluation financial index system which is based on the financial state of the listed companies of traditional industries.
Part four is a key part of the full text, explores listed companies financial performance to the general evaluation method. Firstly, this chapter introduces the developmental process of the performance evaluation of listed companies. Secondly, it details the core content about the method which is financial performance evaluation of comprehensive index: pre-processing of raw data and weight determination of index. Finally, it discusses combination and use of various evaluation methods and gives the thinking of the judgment of the good and bad of these evaluation ways.
Part five, the stocks of thirty-six listed steel industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks markets have been analyzed as the real mode. In empirical analysis, it selected the first principal component analysis, factor analysis, coefficient of variation on thirty-six listed companies to evaluate sorting and analyzed of evaluation of the difference of the three methods. Then through the use of combinations of these methods of evaluation, the result of the combinative sorting was obtained. Finally, by the judgment of the good or bad of evaluation ways, I have reached the conclusion that factor analysis is superior to other methods.
The new idea put forward in the paper is combination of many kinds of methods.
This article combines theory with practice and combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis. In the article, the authors used SPSS, SAS and EXCEL software for analysis.
Seeing that my knowledge and level are limited, statement of the questions are unavoidably imperfect and insufficient in the article, it is appreciated that teachers offer criticize, make a comment. I will remember every teacher's earnest teachings, unremitting study in future work and do further research on this problem.
对于我国上市公司财务的绩效评价研究,各机构和研究者提出了不同的研究思路和评价方法,有待于对各方法进行比较研究。本文希望通过对各方法进行比较研究,探讨多种评价方法组合运用的新思路。
本文分为以下五个部分:
第一部分,前言。介绍了绩效评价问题的起源、在国内外的发展状况、本文的研究角度与相关定义以及研究的意义。
第二部分,对目前常用的国有资金绩效评价体系、沃尔评价指标体系、EVA评价体系、“证星—若山风向标”上市公司财务评测系统以及清华大学与《中国证券报》联合推出的上市公司财务绩效排序体系进行了评析,并指出了这5种指标评价体系存在的不足之处。
第三部分,上市公司财务绩效评价指标体系的设置。首先提出了设置财务绩效评价指标体系应遵循的原则,然后建立了上市公司财务绩效综合评价指标体系。
第四部分是全文的核心部分,探讨了上市公司财务绩效综合评价的方法。首先,介绍了上市公司绩效评价由单指标的会计评价到多指标的综合数理评价的发展过程。其次,详细阐述了多指标财务绩效综合评价方法的两个核心内容:第一,原始数据的预处理,包括了剔除行业的不可比影响、指标的同向化处理、指标的无量纲化处理;第二,指标权重的确定方法,包括了主观赋权与客观赋权,并详细介绍了这两种赋权中较为流行的几种方法,其中主观赋权有德尔菲法、成对比较法、连环比率法、层次分析法,客观赋权有主成分分析法、因子分析法、熵值法、变异系数法。接下来,针对使用一种评价方法存在的局限性探讨了多种评价方法的组合运用,其中介绍了序号总和及众数理论,并在此基础上提出了区间数综合决策模型,然后进一步给出了多种评价方法优劣判断的思路。
第五部分,以传统钢铁行业36家上市公司的财务数据为例进行了实证分析。在实证中,首先选取了本文所介绍的三种客观赋权法:主成分分析法、因子分析法、变异系数法对36家上市公司进行评价排序,并分析了三种方法的评价差异性,然后对三种评价方法进行组合运用并得到了组合排序结果,最后以组合排序结果为参照系对三种客观赋权法作了优劣判断,得出因子分析方法优于其他两种方法的结论。
本文的创新在于提出了多种评价方法组合运用的新思路,本文并不局限于以往文献追求对某一种具体评价方法的改进,事实上,方法不论怎样改进,仅使用一种方法进行评价是片面的,因此本文提出的组合运用思路具有重要的现实意义。需要指出的是虽然本文在实证中选用的是客观赋权法,但评价方法的组合运用具有普遍的适用性。
论文在研究过程中运用了理论与实际相结合,定性与定量分析相结合的方法,并以定量分析为主。在实证分析中主要运用SPSS、SAS、EXCEL等软件作为分析工具进行分析。
由于自身学识和水平有限,文中述及问题难免存在疏漏和不足,敬请各位评审老师和答辩老师批评、指正,学生必将谨记各位老师的谆谆教诲,在今后的工作中坚持不懈的学习,对该问题作进一步的研究。
Along with the establishment and improvement of market economy of China, the stock company has become the modern enterprise's primary tissue form. The stock market for development and growth of enterprises has provided an important financing place. According to statistics, to August 2008, listed companies have reached 1863 (A and B shares) in China. These listed companies are becoming the major-micro-part of China's economy which makes the comprehensive evaluation and analysis of its profit-making state become popular projects.
What about the study of the financial performance evaluation of listed companies, researchers put forward the idea of different research and evaluation methods which were to be compared and researched. This article hopes for a comparative study of various ways to explore a variety of evaluation methods to use combinations of new ideas.
This article is divided into five parts:
Part one is a foreword. It introduced the origin of performance evaluation, the domestic and foreign developmental condition, the angle of research and the related definition as well as the significance of research.
Part two has analyzed the five performance evaluation system of the commonly used and pointed out the defects which exist in these evaluation systems.
Part three establishes the comprehensive evaluation financial index system which is based on the financial state of the listed companies of traditional industries.
Part four is a key part of the full text, explores listed companies financial performance to the general evaluation method. Firstly, this chapter introduces the developmental process of the performance evaluation of listed companies. Secondly, it details the core content about the method which is financial performance evaluation of comprehensive index: pre-processing of raw data and weight determination of index. Finally, it discusses combination and use of various evaluation methods and gives the thinking of the judgment of the good and bad of these evaluation ways.
Part five, the stocks of thirty-six listed steel industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks markets have been analyzed as the real mode. In empirical analysis, it selected the first principal component analysis, factor analysis, coefficient of variation on thirty-six listed companies to evaluate sorting and analyzed of evaluation of the difference of the three methods. Then through the use of combinations of these methods of evaluation, the result of the combinative sorting was obtained. Finally, by the judgment of the good or bad of evaluation ways, I have reached the conclusion that factor analysis is superior to other methods.
The new idea put forward in the paper is combination of many kinds of methods.
This article combines theory with practice and combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis. In the article, the authors used SPSS, SAS and EXCEL software for analysis.
Seeing that my knowledge and level are limited, statement of the questions are unavoidably imperfect and insufficient in the article, it is appreciated that teachers offer criticize, make a comment. I will remember every teacher's earnest teachings, unremitting study in future work and do further research on this problem.
引文
[1] (美)保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯著,经济学[M]第十八版,人民邮电出版社,2008,1.
[2] (美)斯蒂芬·P·罗宾斯,管理学[M]第七版,中国人民大学出版社,2004,1.
[3] (美)罗伯特·卡普兰、安东尼·A·阿特金森,高级管理会计[M]第三版,东北财经大学出版社,2007,5.
[4]财政部注册会计师考试委员会办公室,财务成本管理[M],经济科学出版社,2001.
[5] Chaganti.R、F.Damanpour,Institutional Ownership,Capital Structure and Firm Performance,Strategic Management Journal,1991.
[6] Peter F.Drunker , Harvard Business Review On Measuring Corporate Performance,Harvard Business Review Paperback,1998.
[7]张蕊,企业经营业绩评价理论与方法的变革,会计研究[J],2001,12.
[8] Kaplan.R.S、Norton.D.P,The Balanced Scorecard-Measures that Drive Performance,Harvard Business Review,1992,1.
[9] Kaplan.R.S、Norton.D.P,Putting the Balanced Scored to work,Harvard Business Review,1993,4.
[10] Kaplan.R.S、Norton.D.P,Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System,Harvard Business Review,1996,1.
[11]徐国祥、檀向球、胡穗华,上市公司经营业绩综合评价及其实证研究,统计研究[J],2000,9.
[12]张蕊,企业战略经营业绩评价指标体系研究[M],中国财政出版社,2002.
[13]王化成、刘俊勇、孙薇,企业业绩评价[M],中国人民大学出版社,2004,3.
[14]黄铁苗,综观经济效益论[M],人民出版社,2001,10.
[15] Jam Copeland,Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies,John Wiley & sons,1995.
[16]王睿,基于EVA业绩分析优劣势比较,合作经济与科技[J],2007,7.
[17]吴小平,“证星—若山风向标”上市公司财务评测系统使用指南,http://finance.stockstar.com/finaceres/help1.asp
[18]李鹏,上市公司2007年度绩效排序,中国证券报[N],05/23/2008.
[19]李璟雯,EVA理论在业绩评价体系中的应用研究,南京财经大学学报[J],2008,1.
[20]曹时礼,中国证券市场内幕交易研究,生产力研究[J],2007,19.
[21]陆正飞、施瑜,从财务评价体系看上市公司价值决定—“双高”企业与传统企业的比较,会计研究[J],2002,5.
[22]郭亚军,综合评价理论与方法[M],科学出版社,2002.
[23]刘国灿,企业综合评价的层次分析法,数学理论与应用[J],2008,6.
[24]马宏伟、何祖银,电力类上市公司复合财务系数的综合算法,中国制造业信息化[J],2008,7.
[25]钟庆华,基于主成分分析的企业经营绩效评价研究,天府新论[J],2008,6.
[26]崔梦婷,因子分析钢铁板块及前景预测,科技信息[J],2007,29.
[27]苏洁、沈文成,改进熵值法问题的初探,现代商业[J],2007,26.
[28]张淑静、付晶,基于人工神经网络的财务危机预警,现代商业[J],2007,24.
[29]陈孝新,几种综合评价方法的实证比较,江西财经大学学报,2004,3.
[30]吴诗辉、郭乃林,层次分析法关于一致性检验的改进方法,弹箭与制导学报[J],2006,S9.
[31]陈小军、梁方,企业财务绩效评价方法研究,连云港职业技术学院学报[J],2007,6.
[32]白雪梅、赵松山,多种综合评价方法的优劣判断研究,统计研究[J],2000,7.
[33]闫威、陈燕、陈林波,基于集值统计的动态联盟知识产权风险评价,科学与科学技术管理[J],2008,6.
[34]黎东英、王应明,基于粗集理论的一种数据泛化方法,微机发展[J],2005,7.
[35]闫凤茹、申玉兰,略论综合评价方法,山西统计[J],2003,1.
[36]聂馥霖,浅谈统计综合评价中主成分分析法的应用,陕西综合经济[J],2007,5.
[37]梁莱歆、马如飞、王文芝,基于模糊综合评价的R&D项目财务风险计量,山西财经大学学报[J],2008,5.
[38]赵红梅、詹俊琼,基于EVA的上市公司经营绩效评价方法的研究,价值工程[J],2008,8.
[39]王达明、余军,企业业绩评价方法改进探讨,合作经济与科技[J],2008,5.
[2] (美)斯蒂芬·P·罗宾斯,管理学[M]第七版,中国人民大学出版社,2004,1.
[3] (美)罗伯特·卡普兰、安东尼·A·阿特金森,高级管理会计[M]第三版,东北财经大学出版社,2007,5.
[4]财政部注册会计师考试委员会办公室,财务成本管理[M],经济科学出版社,2001.
[5] Chaganti.R、F.Damanpour,Institutional Ownership,Capital Structure and Firm Performance,Strategic Management Journal,1991.
[6] Peter F.Drunker , Harvard Business Review On Measuring Corporate Performance,Harvard Business Review Paperback,1998.
[7]张蕊,企业经营业绩评价理论与方法的变革,会计研究[J],2001,12.
[8] Kaplan.R.S、Norton.D.P,The Balanced Scorecard-Measures that Drive Performance,Harvard Business Review,1992,1.
[9] Kaplan.R.S、Norton.D.P,Putting the Balanced Scored to work,Harvard Business Review,1993,4.
[10] Kaplan.R.S、Norton.D.P,Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System,Harvard Business Review,1996,1.
[11]徐国祥、檀向球、胡穗华,上市公司经营业绩综合评价及其实证研究,统计研究[J],2000,9.
[12]张蕊,企业战略经营业绩评价指标体系研究[M],中国财政出版社,2002.
[13]王化成、刘俊勇、孙薇,企业业绩评价[M],中国人民大学出版社,2004,3.
[14]黄铁苗,综观经济效益论[M],人民出版社,2001,10.
[15] Jam Copeland,Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies,John Wiley & sons,1995.
[16]王睿,基于EVA业绩分析优劣势比较,合作经济与科技[J],2007,7.
[17]吴小平,“证星—若山风向标”上市公司财务评测系统使用指南,http://finance.stockstar.com/finaceres/help1.asp
[18]李鹏,上市公司2007年度绩效排序,中国证券报[N],05/23/2008.
[19]李璟雯,EVA理论在业绩评价体系中的应用研究,南京财经大学学报[J],2008,1.
[20]曹时礼,中国证券市场内幕交易研究,生产力研究[J],2007,19.
[21]陆正飞、施瑜,从财务评价体系看上市公司价值决定—“双高”企业与传统企业的比较,会计研究[J],2002,5.
[22]郭亚军,综合评价理论与方法[M],科学出版社,2002.
[23]刘国灿,企业综合评价的层次分析法,数学理论与应用[J],2008,6.
[24]马宏伟、何祖银,电力类上市公司复合财务系数的综合算法,中国制造业信息化[J],2008,7.
[25]钟庆华,基于主成分分析的企业经营绩效评价研究,天府新论[J],2008,6.
[26]崔梦婷,因子分析钢铁板块及前景预测,科技信息[J],2007,29.
[27]苏洁、沈文成,改进熵值法问题的初探,现代商业[J],2007,26.
[28]张淑静、付晶,基于人工神经网络的财务危机预警,现代商业[J],2007,24.
[29]陈孝新,几种综合评价方法的实证比较,江西财经大学学报,2004,3.
[30]吴诗辉、郭乃林,层次分析法关于一致性检验的改进方法,弹箭与制导学报[J],2006,S9.
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