公路建设投资统计信息化管理理论与方法
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摘要
近几年来,随着我国综合国力的不断提升,公路建设得以迅猛发展,投资日益加大,但与国外先进国家和地区相比,尚存在较大差距,集中表现在公路投资过程中的信息化、智能化管理与应用水平低下,因此改善公路投资环境、实现公路建设投资的数据信息化管理,提升公路建设投资成效,具有重要意义。
公路建设投资管理信息化依托数字化信息采集、处理和网络通信技术,综合运用GIS(地理信息系统)、通信、网络、多媒体及计算机等技术,对公路投资过程中所涉及的的信息采集、存储与发布及计划调整等进行网络化、一体化管理,实现公路建设资金的使用过程监测和优化配置。
本文依托陕西省交通厅科技项目“陕西省公路交通建设投资统计分析方法研究”,探讨了公路建设投资的特性,就支持公路建设投资统计的关键技术进行了探讨,提出了公路建设投资的统计指标体系、统计数据库与数据处理技术、风险预警体系结构框架及管理信息化水平综合评价方法,旨在通过对公路投资管理信息化理论与方法的研究与探索,为公路建设投资提供一定的借鉴和参考依据。
从分析国内外对公路建设投资统计指标的分析入手,构建公路建设投资统计指标体系,涵盖基本统计指标、建设投资统计指标及投资绩效分析指标3个层次、58个单项统计指标,所选指标具有可测、可比、代表性突出及独立性较强的特点。同时,针对每个单项统计指标的特点,探讨了其数据获取的方式与途径。
依托GIS平台,提出了公路建设投资管理信息化数据库的框架结构,该数据库属于事务型与主题型数据库,包含公路属性、道路空间、背景矢量空间与背景栅格空间四类数据,在数据库中开发了数据质量控制、数据集成、数据融合、数据挖掘等存储过程,为投资管理与分析提供了一个智能化平台和工具。
从公路投资的现状分析、发展规划与绩效评价三个层次入手,提出了公路投资风险预警的指标体系,包括3个目标层和12项指标层；构建基于AHP的多层次模糊综合评价法,对公路建设投资风险预警的等级及预警信号进行评判。通过将事故预警划分为监测、识别、诊断与评价四个阶段,构建公路建设投资风险预警的系统总体框架,从数据采集与查询、数据分析与处理到报警与调度等阶段设计预警系统的子系统,并应用陕西省公路建设投资统计数据进行了案例分析。
利用层次分析法和模糊数学理论,建立了公路投资管理信息化水平二级综合评价模型,涵盖投资管理信息化组织建设、投资管理信息化应用、投资管理效率、投资管理信息系统及基础设施信息化管理5个评价领域,共计16个评价参数；采用单准则AHP构权法确定了评价指标的权重,建立了各个评价指标的隶属函数,并提出了根据应用目的不同确定评价结果的方法。以陕西省公路投资管理信息化水平为研究对象,运用本文所提出的综合评价方法对其进行判别,得到目前陕西省公路投资建设信息化管理水平为Ⅲ级,存在诸多有待进一步改进之处。
本文以面向我国公路投资信息化管理理论与方法研究为突破点,强调理论分析与实践应用的有机结合,在指标选择及体系构建方面有所创新：①构建了公路建设投资统计指标体系；②提出了公路投资管理信息化水平模糊综合评价方法；③建立了公路投资风险预警的结构框架体系。鉴于本文研究的不完善之处,完善公路投资信息化管理理论模型与方法、开发公路投资信息化管理系统、建设成果应用示范工程等均为后续研究的主攻方向和工作重点。
Recently years, with the increasing investment the highway construction has a rapid development as the improve of China's comprehensive national strength, but there is a wide gap compared with foreign advanced countries and regions,focuses on the low level of the management and application of information in the process of highway investment, therefore it has important theoretical significance and practical value to improve highway investment environment and realize the highway construction investment data information management.
Highway construction investment management information rely on digital information acquisition, processing and network communication technology, the integrated use of GIS (geographic information system), communication, network, multimedia and computer technology to highway investment process involved information acquisition, storage and release and plan adjustment on network, such as integrated management, realize highway the use of construction funds, process monitoring and optimize configuration.
This paper based on shaanxi province torch-plan projects on "Highway construction investment management system research", discusses the characteristics of highway construction investment and the key technology supporting of statistics; proposes statistic index system,statistical database,data processing technology, risk pre-warning system structure frame and management informationization level comprehensive evaluation method of highway construction investment. It aims to provide certain reference and basis for highway construction investment in China from the research and exploration of highway investment management information theory and method.
It begins from the analysis of highway construction investment statistical indicators both at home and abroad, conducting highway construction investment statistic index system, which covers3levels,60single statistical indicators, the basic statistical index, construction investment statistical index and investment performance analysis indicators, the selected indexes have strong characteristic of measurable, comparable, representative outstanding and independence. Meanwhile, the article discusses the means for obtaining data, aiming at the characteristics of every single statistic index.
Relying on GIS platform, puts forward highway construction investment management information database of frame structure, this database non-business and theme type database belong to, including highway attribute, road space vector space and background, background, four types of raster spatial data in the database development data quality control, data integration, data integration, data mining, such as investment management stored procedure with analysis provides a intelligent platform and tools.
This paper proposes the highway investment risk pre-warning index system including3target hierarchy and12indicators hierarchy from the status analyzing development planning and performance evaluation of the investment in highway; conducts multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the AHP, evaluate risk level and warning signal on highway construction investment. Through accident warning is divided into four stages of monitor, identify, diagnosis and evaluation, constructing highway construction investment risk early-warning system framework, from data acquisition and inquiry, data analysis and processing to alarm and scheduling stage design early warning systems and application subsystems, gives a analysis case based on the statistical data of highway construction investment in shaanxi province.
Using the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory, it establishes a highway investment management informationization2nd level comprehensive evaluation model, covers investment management information organization construction, investment management informatization, investment management efficiency, investment management information system and infrastructure informatization management five evaluation area, with16evaluation parameters; Using single criterion AHP constitutive weight method identified the weights of evaluation indexes, established the membership function of each evaluating index, and put forward according to the purpose of applying the evaluation results of different methods. With shaanxi province highway investment management informationization level for the study, using the suggested integrated evaluation method to its judging, get current investment in roads of shaanxi province construction information management level, there are many III level for further improvements.
Based on the research of investment information management theories and methods in highway construction, emphasize the organic combination of theoretical analysis and practical application, with somewhat innovation in the index selection and system construction:(1) constructs highway construction investment statistic index system;(2) proposes comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method of highway investment informationization management;(3) establishes a structural frame system of highway investment risk pre-warning. In view of the imperfections in this paper, the follow-up studies would be focus on improving the highway investment information management theoretical models and methods, developingt highway investment information management system, showing the perfect application inhighway projects.
公路建设投资管理信息化依托数字化信息采集、处理和网络通信技术,综合运用GIS(地理信息系统)、通信、网络、多媒体及计算机等技术,对公路投资过程中所涉及的的信息采集、存储与发布及计划调整等进行网络化、一体化管理,实现公路建设资金的使用过程监测和优化配置。
本文依托陕西省交通厅科技项目“陕西省公路交通建设投资统计分析方法研究”,探讨了公路建设投资的特性,就支持公路建设投资统计的关键技术进行了探讨,提出了公路建设投资的统计指标体系、统计数据库与数据处理技术、风险预警体系结构框架及管理信息化水平综合评价方法,旨在通过对公路投资管理信息化理论与方法的研究与探索,为公路建设投资提供一定的借鉴和参考依据。
从分析国内外对公路建设投资统计指标的分析入手,构建公路建设投资统计指标体系,涵盖基本统计指标、建设投资统计指标及投资绩效分析指标3个层次、58个单项统计指标,所选指标具有可测、可比、代表性突出及独立性较强的特点。同时,针对每个单项统计指标的特点,探讨了其数据获取的方式与途径。
依托GIS平台,提出了公路建设投资管理信息化数据库的框架结构,该数据库属于事务型与主题型数据库,包含公路属性、道路空间、背景矢量空间与背景栅格空间四类数据,在数据库中开发了数据质量控制、数据集成、数据融合、数据挖掘等存储过程,为投资管理与分析提供了一个智能化平台和工具。
从公路投资的现状分析、发展规划与绩效评价三个层次入手,提出了公路投资风险预警的指标体系,包括3个目标层和12项指标层；构建基于AHP的多层次模糊综合评价法,对公路建设投资风险预警的等级及预警信号进行评判。通过将事故预警划分为监测、识别、诊断与评价四个阶段,构建公路建设投资风险预警的系统总体框架,从数据采集与查询、数据分析与处理到报警与调度等阶段设计预警系统的子系统,并应用陕西省公路建设投资统计数据进行了案例分析。
利用层次分析法和模糊数学理论,建立了公路投资管理信息化水平二级综合评价模型,涵盖投资管理信息化组织建设、投资管理信息化应用、投资管理效率、投资管理信息系统及基础设施信息化管理5个评价领域,共计16个评价参数；采用单准则AHP构权法确定了评价指标的权重,建立了各个评价指标的隶属函数,并提出了根据应用目的不同确定评价结果的方法。以陕西省公路投资管理信息化水平为研究对象,运用本文所提出的综合评价方法对其进行判别,得到目前陕西省公路投资建设信息化管理水平为Ⅲ级,存在诸多有待进一步改进之处。
本文以面向我国公路投资信息化管理理论与方法研究为突破点,强调理论分析与实践应用的有机结合,在指标选择及体系构建方面有所创新：①构建了公路建设投资统计指标体系；②提出了公路投资管理信息化水平模糊综合评价方法；③建立了公路投资风险预警的结构框架体系。鉴于本文研究的不完善之处,完善公路投资信息化管理理论模型与方法、开发公路投资信息化管理系统、建设成果应用示范工程等均为后续研究的主攻方向和工作重点。
Recently years, with the increasing investment the highway construction has a rapid development as the improve of China's comprehensive national strength, but there is a wide gap compared with foreign advanced countries and regions,focuses on the low level of the management and application of information in the process of highway investment, therefore it has important theoretical significance and practical value to improve highway investment environment and realize the highway construction investment data information management.
Highway construction investment management information rely on digital information acquisition, processing and network communication technology, the integrated use of GIS (geographic information system), communication, network, multimedia and computer technology to highway investment process involved information acquisition, storage and release and plan adjustment on network, such as integrated management, realize highway the use of construction funds, process monitoring and optimize configuration.
This paper based on shaanxi province torch-plan projects on "Highway construction investment management system research", discusses the characteristics of highway construction investment and the key technology supporting of statistics; proposes statistic index system,statistical database,data processing technology, risk pre-warning system structure frame and management informationization level comprehensive evaluation method of highway construction investment. It aims to provide certain reference and basis for highway construction investment in China from the research and exploration of highway investment management information theory and method.
It begins from the analysis of highway construction investment statistical indicators both at home and abroad, conducting highway construction investment statistic index system, which covers3levels,60single statistical indicators, the basic statistical index, construction investment statistical index and investment performance analysis indicators, the selected indexes have strong characteristic of measurable, comparable, representative outstanding and independence. Meanwhile, the article discusses the means for obtaining data, aiming at the characteristics of every single statistic index.
Relying on GIS platform, puts forward highway construction investment management information database of frame structure, this database non-business and theme type database belong to, including highway attribute, road space vector space and background, background, four types of raster spatial data in the database development data quality control, data integration, data integration, data mining, such as investment management stored procedure with analysis provides a intelligent platform and tools.
This paper proposes the highway investment risk pre-warning index system including3target hierarchy and12indicators hierarchy from the status analyzing development planning and performance evaluation of the investment in highway; conducts multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the AHP, evaluate risk level and warning signal on highway construction investment. Through accident warning is divided into four stages of monitor, identify, diagnosis and evaluation, constructing highway construction investment risk early-warning system framework, from data acquisition and inquiry, data analysis and processing to alarm and scheduling stage design early warning systems and application subsystems, gives a analysis case based on the statistical data of highway construction investment in shaanxi province.
Using the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory, it establishes a highway investment management informationization2nd level comprehensive evaluation model, covers investment management information organization construction, investment management informatization, investment management efficiency, investment management information system and infrastructure informatization management five evaluation area, with16evaluation parameters; Using single criterion AHP constitutive weight method identified the weights of evaluation indexes, established the membership function of each evaluating index, and put forward according to the purpose of applying the evaluation results of different methods. With shaanxi province highway investment management informationization level for the study, using the suggested integrated evaluation method to its judging, get current investment in roads of shaanxi province construction information management level, there are many III level for further improvements.
Based on the research of investment information management theories and methods in highway construction, emphasize the organic combination of theoretical analysis and practical application, with somewhat innovation in the index selection and system construction:(1) constructs highway construction investment statistic index system;(2) proposes comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method of highway investment informationization management;(3) establishes a structural frame system of highway investment risk pre-warning. In view of the imperfections in this paper, the follow-up studies would be focus on improving the highway investment information management theoretical models and methods, developingt highway investment information management system, showing the perfect application inhighway projects.
引文
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62.王宁,邹志云.贝叶斯矩法在交通事故预警中的应用.城市道桥与防洪.2006(5)：191-193.
63.易正俊,张业亭,黄华.基于粗糙集的道路交通事故预警算法研究.西华大学学报.自然科学版,2007,26(5)：26-28.
64.宇仁德,田启华,祁素升.基于GIS的城市交通安全预警系统.交通与计算机,2006,24(6)：95-98.
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69. McCourt, R.S.,2006. Oregon's transportation planning rule goes into the shop for repairs. Transp. Res. Rec.,1981,56-59.
70. Mitchell, G.,1996. Problems and fundamentals of sustainable development indicators. Sustain. Dev.,4(1),1-11.
71. Ravanbakht, C.; Akan, G.; Hanshaw, S.; et al.,2006. Linking planning and operations to improve regional mobility and safety in Hampton roads, Virginia. Transp. Res. Rec.,1978,184-192.
72. Easa, S. M.; Strauss, T. R.; Hassan, Y.; et al.,2002. Three-dimensional transportation analysis:Planning and design. J. Transp. Eng.,128(3), 250-258.
73. Paine S. C., Kramer J., Beardall H., et al. Learning to Drive the Transportation System:Study of Training Needs of Metropolitan Planning Organization Participants in Florida. Transportation Research Record. 2006,1981:12-17
74. Falcocchio, J. C.,2004. Performance measures for evaluating transportation systems:stakeholder perspective. Transp. Res. Rec.,1895, 220-227.
75. T.J. Lomax, S.M. Turner, G.A. Shunk. Quantifying Congestion:Final Report. NCHRP Report 398, TRB, Washington, D.C.,1997
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80. Turner S. M. Using ITS Data for Transportation System Performance Measurement. Conference on Traffic Congestion and Traffic Safety in the 21st Century,1997, Chicago:340-346
81. Pezzoli, K.,1997. Sustainable development:a transdisciplinary overview of the literature. J. Environ. Plann. Manag.,40(5),549-574.
82. Li Z.Z., Sinha K. C. Application of Shackle's model and system optimization for highway investment decision making under uncertainty. Journal of Transportation Engineering,2009,135(3):129-139.
83. Wang Yong-gang, Chen Kuan-min, Pei Yu-long, Wang Ying. Integrating before and after crash features into measuring the effectiveness of intersection safety improvement project in Harbin. TRANSPORT,2011, 26(1):111-120 doi:10.3846/16484142.2011.565599
84. Hens, L., De Wit, J.,2003. The development of indicators and core indicators for sustainable development:a state of the art review. Int. J. Sustain. Dev.,6(4),436-459.
85. Litman, T.; Burwell, D.,2006. Issues in sustainable transportation. Int. J. Global Environ. Issues,6(4),331-347.
86. Fleet, C.; Goodman, C.,1993. Implications of ISTEA and CAAA'90 for transportation planning data needs. In proc. Natl. Conf. Transp. Plann. Air. Qual., May 24-26, Danvers, MA, USA,76-94.
87. Amekudzi, A. A.; Jotin Khisty, C.; Khayesi, M.,2009. Using the sustainability footprint model to assess development impacts of transportation systems. Transp. Res. A,43(4),339-348.
88. Narasimhan, S.; Shah, S. L.,2008. Model identification and error covariance matrix estimation from noisy data using PCA. Contr. Eng. Pract.,16(1),146-155.
89. Campos, V. B. G.; Ramos, R. A. R.; Correia, D. M. S.,2009. Multi-criteria analysis procedure for sustainable mobility evaluation in urban areas. J. Adv. Transport.,43(4),371-390.
90. Cho, H. S.; Sung, S. H.; Kwon, D.; et al.,2005. New method for bounding the maximum differential probability for SPNs and ARIA. Lect. Notes Comput. Sci.,3506,21-32.
91. Fu, H.; Mayhew, R.; Bailey, L.; et al.,2007. Innovative coordination between states, metropolitan planning organizations, and tribes in transportation planning. Transp. Res. Rec.,1997,41-47.
92.刘清,佘廉.高速公路预警管理系统研究.科技进步与对策.2002(3)：167-168.
93. Tsou, C. M.; Huang, D. Y,2010. On some methods for performance ranking and correspondence analysis in the DEA context. Eur. J. Oper. Res.,203(3),771-783.
94. Castillo, H.; Pitfield, D. E.,2010. ELASTIC-A methodological framework for identifying and selecting sustainable transport indicators. Transp. Res. D,15(4),179-188.
95.杨伟杰,裴玉龙,徐秋实.模糊数学在城市交通政策评价中的应用.公路.2003.4,No.5：103～106
96.姜艳,裴玉龙,邢恩辉.基于MATLAB的城市停车规划模糊综合评价研究.交通运输工程学报.2004.9 Vol.2 No.3 P 35-41
97. Gass, S. T.; Rapcsak, T.,2004. Singular value decomposition in AHP. Eur. J. Oper. Res.,154(3),573-584.
98. Saaty.T.L.,1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York.
99. Waddell, P.; Ulfarsson, G. F.; Franklin, J. P.; et al.,2007. Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning. Transp. Res. A,41(5), 382-410.
100. Gayle, S. B.,2009. Performance-based planning:a practitioner's view of transportation planning in the 21st century. ITE J.,79(9),48-50.
101. Hatzopoulou, M.; Miller, E. J.,2009. Transport policy evaluation in metropolitan areas:The role of modelling in decision-making. Transp. Res. A,43(4),323-338.
102. Handy S.,2008. Regional transportation planning in the US:an examination of changes in technical aspects of the planning process in response to changing goals. Transport Pol.,15(2),113-126.
103. Venigalla, M.; Ali, A.,2005. Deriving performance measures for transportation planning using ITS archived data. Civ. Eng. Environ. Syst., 22(3),171-188.