中国金融自由化进程及其对实体经济影响效应研究
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摘要
金融体系是现代经济发展的重要支撑。发展中国家以及转轨国家大都通过金融自由化促进经济的快速发展。本文立足于中国金融自由化改革实践历程,以其对实体经济影响效应为主题展开研究,力图为进一步深化金融改革提供有价值的研究成果。
本文通过对国内外金融自由化实践的回顾与反思,深入讨论金融自由化与实体经济的关联机制。主要研究工作表现在以下三个方面:一是采用主成分分析方法构建了中国的金融自由化指数;二是基于中国的金融自由化指数进行中国金融自由化效应的实证分析;三是通过自回归分布滞后模型对中国的利率效应进行了实证检验。经过研究发现,中国的金融自由化能够通过影响投资产生对实体经济的影响,并且发现实际利率的变化已经产生了对于实体经济的影响。而且商业银行在金融改革的过程中也已体现出对于实际利率变化的敏感性。
基于上述的研究,提出了我国金融发展的政策导向:一方面要继续推进金融自由化,一方面更要加快监管体系的建设。
So many developing countries looked forward that the theory of Financial Liberalization could prompt economy development in the 1970’s. Had investigated the actual condition of developing countries, McKinnon and Shaw advocated financial liberalization for developing countries. They argued that the liberalized financial sector could effectively convert the saving to credit; then the real economy could get advantage from this measure. The purpose of Financial Liberalization is reconstructing a harmonious financial system without the redundant intervene from the government. The final goal is to harmonize the relationship between the financial system and the real economy.
Through the reform of Chinese financial system, financial liberalization strived to achieve the change from central planned economy to market economy and from the closely financial system to openly financial system. But the present theory and practice experience shows that: the interest rate marketization, the change of exchange rate system, and the financial system adjustment are the most difficult problem in economy development. Financial repression seems more conducive to economic stability, but it may reduce the allocation efficiency of financial resources. And the purpose of the implementation of financial liberalization is to solve low efficiency of the conversion from saving to investment in financial system. By reducing the government intervention, let the market to allocate financial resource, and ensure the efficiency of resource allocation.
The paper is divided into five chapters; the structure arrangement is as follows:
The first chapter the development orientation of financial liberalization practice: review and compare. This chapter reviews the reform policies of financial liberalization in different countries, and compares the impact. Then combined with the actual situation in China, we discussed the common and controversy of financial liberalization practice.
The second chapter related theory and literature review. This chapter analyzes and summarizes the related theory correlation of financial liberalization and real economy. The core of channels was saving and investment, that financial liberalization influence to the real economy. Although theories research shows that the impact of financial liberalization savings with uncertainty,it can promote transformation efficiency and capital allocation efficiency.
The third chapter financial liberalization index constructing and analysis. This chapter combined the concrete practice of the Chinese financial liberalization reform, according to the importance of the event assignment, using the principal component analysis method of Chinese financial liberalization index, the principal component analysis method is applied to construct Chinese financial liberalization index. Combination of Chinese financial liberalization index , empirical this chapter empirical analyzed the saving, investment,and their efficiency in Chinese financial liberalization process.
The fourth chapter Empirical test of interest rate effect of financial liberalization. This chapter use quarterly and monthly data from 1992 to 2007.ARDL method is applied to empirical test McKinnon - Shaw hypothesis and the sensitivity of the actual interest rate to Chinese commercial bank loans actions. From the macro and micro levels, this chapter studies the impact of the actual interest rate and real economic, thus looks for empirical evidence of the impact Chinese economic and financial liberalization.
The fifth chapter the Judgment of Chinese financial liberalization process and proposals to financial deepening reform. In view of the current financial crisis of international environment, this chapter discusses the development direction of Chinese financial reform. The reform of Chinese financial liberalization is different from western markets’, because we do Market mechanism imperfect was the major problem in Chinese finance; therefore we should promote financial liberalizations, especially, interest rate liberalization reform, and perfect the price mechanism of the financial and real economic.
For any country, the financial are indispensable modern economic development of key factors. For developing countries and transition countries, through financial development, improve savings, increase the conversion from saving to investment, and better quality and quantity of economic development has become a consensus. According to China's financial liberalization process and economic entity, combining the characteristics of China's economic development, in comparison to other countries and summarizes the experience of financial liberalization, on the basis of using the econometric methods for empirical research, the following conclusions:
(1) The core channel of financial liberalization influence to the real economy is savings and investment. Through financial function of each study found that changes in investment and financing channels, the financial structure, and so development of the securities market of the real economy have an impact on savings and investment. In general, although theoretical studies have shown the financial impact of liberalization on savings uncertainty, the financial liberalization can indeed conversion efficiency savings and improve capital allocation efficiency role to play, therefore, there is a positive correlation between financial liberalization and economic development entities.
(2) Through the preparation index of financial liberalization of China's financial liberalization historical development, found that progressive and repeatability existed, especially in the late 1980s to the early 1990s, financial liberalization reforms appear a certain degree of repeated. But since 1992, the index of financial liberalization has an obvious upward trend, thus verify that financial liberalization in China began in 1992.
(3) This chapter uses this financial liberalization index, and establishes cointegration equation of savings and investment, as well as the different sources of fixed assets investment in real economy. Then it measures the impact of financial liberalization process and real economic. The empirical results show that financial liberalizations have an influence on the scale and quality of investment, and promote the economy development.
(4) This chapter uses quarterly and monthly data from 1992 to 2007, ARDL method is applied to empirical test the impact on real interest rates for savings and investment in fixed assets. The empirical results show, in the long term, the actual interest rate for the savings of change is not clear. And the impact of the actual interest rate for investment in fixed assets is statistical significance, and in the same direction. It shows that the relationship between the actual interest rate and investment, accords with McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis.
(5) Empirical results between commercial bank savings and loan show that China's commercial banks lending behavior of investment in fixed assets have a very significant positive effects, commercial bank loans and fixed assets investment and the actual lending rates of change in the same direction, and showing a certain degree of sensitivity, but in the same direction between the two relationships in China that may exist McKinnon - Shaw said the investment to raise interest rates to increase the interest rate effect of financial liberalization.
本文通过对国内外金融自由化实践的回顾与反思,深入讨论金融自由化与实体经济的关联机制。主要研究工作表现在以下三个方面:一是采用主成分分析方法构建了中国的金融自由化指数;二是基于中国的金融自由化指数进行中国金融自由化效应的实证分析;三是通过自回归分布滞后模型对中国的利率效应进行了实证检验。经过研究发现,中国的金融自由化能够通过影响投资产生对实体经济的影响,并且发现实际利率的变化已经产生了对于实体经济的影响。而且商业银行在金融改革的过程中也已体现出对于实际利率变化的敏感性。
基于上述的研究,提出了我国金融发展的政策导向:一方面要继续推进金融自由化,一方面更要加快监管体系的建设。
So many developing countries looked forward that the theory of Financial Liberalization could prompt economy development in the 1970’s. Had investigated the actual condition of developing countries, McKinnon and Shaw advocated financial liberalization for developing countries. They argued that the liberalized financial sector could effectively convert the saving to credit; then the real economy could get advantage from this measure. The purpose of Financial Liberalization is reconstructing a harmonious financial system without the redundant intervene from the government. The final goal is to harmonize the relationship between the financial system and the real economy.
Through the reform of Chinese financial system, financial liberalization strived to achieve the change from central planned economy to market economy and from the closely financial system to openly financial system. But the present theory and practice experience shows that: the interest rate marketization, the change of exchange rate system, and the financial system adjustment are the most difficult problem in economy development. Financial repression seems more conducive to economic stability, but it may reduce the allocation efficiency of financial resources. And the purpose of the implementation of financial liberalization is to solve low efficiency of the conversion from saving to investment in financial system. By reducing the government intervention, let the market to allocate financial resource, and ensure the efficiency of resource allocation.
The paper is divided into five chapters; the structure arrangement is as follows:
The first chapter the development orientation of financial liberalization practice: review and compare. This chapter reviews the reform policies of financial liberalization in different countries, and compares the impact. Then combined with the actual situation in China, we discussed the common and controversy of financial liberalization practice.
The second chapter related theory and literature review. This chapter analyzes and summarizes the related theory correlation of financial liberalization and real economy. The core of channels was saving and investment, that financial liberalization influence to the real economy. Although theories research shows that the impact of financial liberalization savings with uncertainty,it can promote transformation efficiency and capital allocation efficiency.
The third chapter financial liberalization index constructing and analysis. This chapter combined the concrete practice of the Chinese financial liberalization reform, according to the importance of the event assignment, using the principal component analysis method of Chinese financial liberalization index, the principal component analysis method is applied to construct Chinese financial liberalization index. Combination of Chinese financial liberalization index , empirical this chapter empirical analyzed the saving, investment,and their efficiency in Chinese financial liberalization process.
The fourth chapter Empirical test of interest rate effect of financial liberalization. This chapter use quarterly and monthly data from 1992 to 2007.ARDL method is applied to empirical test McKinnon - Shaw hypothesis and the sensitivity of the actual interest rate to Chinese commercial bank loans actions. From the macro and micro levels, this chapter studies the impact of the actual interest rate and real economic, thus looks for empirical evidence of the impact Chinese economic and financial liberalization.
The fifth chapter the Judgment of Chinese financial liberalization process and proposals to financial deepening reform. In view of the current financial crisis of international environment, this chapter discusses the development direction of Chinese financial reform. The reform of Chinese financial liberalization is different from western markets’, because we do Market mechanism imperfect was the major problem in Chinese finance; therefore we should promote financial liberalizations, especially, interest rate liberalization reform, and perfect the price mechanism of the financial and real economic.
For any country, the financial are indispensable modern economic development of key factors. For developing countries and transition countries, through financial development, improve savings, increase the conversion from saving to investment, and better quality and quantity of economic development has become a consensus. According to China's financial liberalization process and economic entity, combining the characteristics of China's economic development, in comparison to other countries and summarizes the experience of financial liberalization, on the basis of using the econometric methods for empirical research, the following conclusions:
(1) The core channel of financial liberalization influence to the real economy is savings and investment. Through financial function of each study found that changes in investment and financing channels, the financial structure, and so development of the securities market of the real economy have an impact on savings and investment. In general, although theoretical studies have shown the financial impact of liberalization on savings uncertainty, the financial liberalization can indeed conversion efficiency savings and improve capital allocation efficiency role to play, therefore, there is a positive correlation between financial liberalization and economic development entities.
(2) Through the preparation index of financial liberalization of China's financial liberalization historical development, found that progressive and repeatability existed, especially in the late 1980s to the early 1990s, financial liberalization reforms appear a certain degree of repeated. But since 1992, the index of financial liberalization has an obvious upward trend, thus verify that financial liberalization in China began in 1992.
(3) This chapter uses this financial liberalization index, and establishes cointegration equation of savings and investment, as well as the different sources of fixed assets investment in real economy. Then it measures the impact of financial liberalization process and real economic. The empirical results show that financial liberalizations have an influence on the scale and quality of investment, and promote the economy development.
(4) This chapter uses quarterly and monthly data from 1992 to 2007, ARDL method is applied to empirical test the impact on real interest rates for savings and investment in fixed assets. The empirical results show, in the long term, the actual interest rate for the savings of change is not clear. And the impact of the actual interest rate for investment in fixed assets is statistical significance, and in the same direction. It shows that the relationship between the actual interest rate and investment, accords with McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis.
(5) Empirical results between commercial bank savings and loan show that China's commercial banks lending behavior of investment in fixed assets have a very significant positive effects, commercial bank loans and fixed assets investment and the actual lending rates of change in the same direction, and showing a certain degree of sensitivity, but in the same direction between the two relationships in China that may exist McKinnon - Shaw said the investment to raise interest rates to increase the interest rate effect of financial liberalization.
引文
①马胜杰:《从国际经验看中国的利率市场化改革》,《世界经济》,2001年第5期。
①John P. Bonin, Iftekhar Hasan, c and Paul Wachtel,“Privatization matters: Bank efficiency in transition countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 29, Issues8-9, 2005, Pages 2155-2178.
①数据来源:MSCI,2006。转引自Stock Market Capitalization in Developing Countries,[EB/OL],2006年7月19日,http://www.singularity2050.com/2006/07/stock_market_ca.html。
①1997-1998亚洲金融危机对韩国经济造成了巨大影响,并导致了其后的储蓄增长水平下降,这一点在图中有所反映。
②美洲开发银行集团(Inter-American Development Bank) 2005年度报告对此进行了详细论述,具体可参考其报告《Unlocking Credit: The Quest for Deep and Stable Bank Lending》,2005。
③江春、刘春华:《发展中国家的利率市场化:理论、经验及启示》,《国际金融研究》,2007年第10期。
①Ross Levine, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 688-726;也可参考本文第二章内容。
①不同国有商业银行的股份制改革历程可以参见新华网在线资料:《国有商业银行股份制改革之路》(记者刘琳、任芳),http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2009-01/16/content_10669990.htm,2009年1月16日。
①可参考王曙光:《金融自由化与经济发展》,北京:北京大学出版社,2004年。
②Merton, R., and Z. Bodie. A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing the Financial Environment. in: David Crane et al. (eds.): the Global Financial System: A Functional Perspective. 1995, Harvard Bussiness School Press. pp.3-31.;Robert C. Merton, A Functional Perspective of Financial Intermediation, Financial Management, Vol. 24, No. 2, Silver Anniversary Commemoration (Summer, 1995), pp. 23-41.
③Ross Levine, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 688-726
①详细推导过程可参考徐爽、李宏瑾:《一个利率市场化的模型》,《世界经济》,2006年第6期。
①Vicente Galbis (1977), Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Less-Developed Countries: A Theoretical Approach, Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 13, 58-72
①文远华,2005,《中国经济转型时期信贷配给问题研究》上海三联书店,2005年3月,P.4
①,①高洪民,《中国转轨经济中的信贷配给与货币政策的信用传导》,上海世纪出版集团,2007年8月,第82页。
①参见中国人民银行网站《利率市场化介绍》,http://www.pbc.gov.cn。
①宋则,2009:《重大措施更需要体制机制保障》,《中国党政干部论坛》,2009年第1期,第37-39页。
①易纲,2009:《中国改革开放三十年的利率市场化进程》,《金融研究》,2009年第1期,第1-14页。
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①John P. Bonin, Iftekhar Hasan, c and Paul Wachtel,“Privatization matters: Bank efficiency in transition countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 29, Issues8-9, 2005, Pages 2155-2178.
①数据来源:MSCI,2006。转引自Stock Market Capitalization in Developing Countries,[EB/OL],2006年7月19日,http://www.singularity2050.com/2006/07/stock_market_ca.html。
①1997-1998亚洲金融危机对韩国经济造成了巨大影响,并导致了其后的储蓄增长水平下降,这一点在图中有所反映。
②美洲开发银行集团(Inter-American Development Bank) 2005年度报告对此进行了详细论述,具体可参考其报告《Unlocking Credit: The Quest for Deep and Stable Bank Lending》,2005。
③江春、刘春华:《发展中国家的利率市场化:理论、经验及启示》,《国际金融研究》,2007年第10期。
①Ross Levine, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 688-726;也可参考本文第二章内容。
①不同国有商业银行的股份制改革历程可以参见新华网在线资料:《国有商业银行股份制改革之路》(记者刘琳、任芳),http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2009-01/16/content_10669990.htm,2009年1月16日。
①可参考王曙光:《金融自由化与经济发展》,北京:北京大学出版社,2004年。
②Merton, R., and Z. Bodie. A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing the Financial Environment. in: David Crane et al. (eds.): the Global Financial System: A Functional Perspective. 1995, Harvard Bussiness School Press. pp.3-31.;Robert C. Merton, A Functional Perspective of Financial Intermediation, Financial Management, Vol. 24, No. 2, Silver Anniversary Commemoration (Summer, 1995), pp. 23-41.
③Ross Levine, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 688-726
①详细推导过程可参考徐爽、李宏瑾:《一个利率市场化的模型》,《世界经济》,2006年第6期。
①Vicente Galbis (1977), Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Less-Developed Countries: A Theoretical Approach, Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 13, 58-72
①文远华,2005,《中国经济转型时期信贷配给问题研究》上海三联书店,2005年3月,P.4
①,①高洪民,《中国转轨经济中的信贷配给与货币政策的信用传导》,上海世纪出版集团,2007年8月,第82页。
①参见中国人民银行网站《利率市场化介绍》,http://www.pbc.gov.cn。
①宋则,2009:《重大措施更需要体制机制保障》,《中国党政干部论坛》,2009年第1期,第37-39页。
①易纲,2009:《中国改革开放三十年的利率市场化进程》,《金融研究》,2009年第1期,第1-14页。
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