中国农村居民消费与经济增长的实证研究
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摘要
消费是人类赖以生存和发展的基础,消费需求是人类社会不断进步的基本动力。随着经济社会的不断发展,消费的内容、结构、方式和影响消费的因素都发生了极大的变化,消费对社会经济的影响也越来越大。国内外经济发展的经验表明：一国经济发展的快慢,在相当程度上取决于消费需求的大小,特别是在经济经过最初发展阶段而进入到中级或更高级的发展阶段后,这一特征体现得尤为突出。
中国作为发展中的农业大国,在改革开放过程中,根深蒂固的传统“节俭观”左右了人们对拉动经济增长“三驾马车”中的消费要素的认识,数十年来一直更多地依靠出口和投资拉动经济增长,忽略了消费要素对经济增长的巨大贡献和消费需求对经济发展的巨大推动,以致中国经济结构畸形、经济发展对投资和国外市场的过度依赖。在中国社会经济进入全面转型的时期,各种不确定性因素进一步压抑了国民消费,国际金融危机的爆发更带来了出口的严重萎缩,现实经济生活中,对于经济增长的维系,投资已是独木难支。如何合理、有效地启动占中国人口绝大多数的农村消费市场,对于中国经济保持持续、快速、稳定增长具有非常重要的现实意义。
本研究致力于以西方现代消费行为理论为基础,运用现代计量经济学方法,结合中国农村消费实际状况,从消费结构、消费函数两个方面着手,对农村居民消费行为的变动规律、影响因素以及与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,以期有助于解释经济转型时期中国农村居民消费需求不足的根本原因,为启动农村消费市场,促进经济发展,提供理论支持和政策依据。
论文首先对新古典经济理论关于消费者行为理论的种种假定进行梳理,并以此为参照系,分阶段对中国农村居民消费行为特征进行分析,归纳出了影响现阶段农村居民消费行为的制约因素,建立动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel Data Model),考察了收入水平、不确定性、社会保障水平以及消费习惯对农村居民消费结构的影响效应,从而揭示中国农村居民消费行为特征及变动规律。研究表明：收入仍然是影响农村居民消费行为的主要因素,但随着经济的快速发展,不确定性以及社会保障水平对农村居民消费结构的影响程度更加明显,长期形成的消费习惯对消费需求的影响也不容忽视。然后,在此基础上,借鉴预防性储蓄理论,从理论上推导了农村居民谨慎性消费动机的形成机理,并构建一个农村居民消费函数误差修正模型(Error-correcting Model, ECM),采用省级面板数据,对农村居民谨慎性消费动机进行了验证,结果表明：在转型过程中,制度变迁增强了农村居民的风险预期,以及信贷约束限制没得到及时、有效地松动,使得农村居民存在着较为强烈的谨慎性消费动机。依据实证分析结果,提出了强化农村公共产品供给,减少农村居民消费预期等政策建议。为更好地探讨农村居民消费与经济增长的关系,运用计量经济学非结构方法,建立向量自回归模型(Vector Auto-regression, VAR),对农村居民消费结构的变化与产业结构发展之间的关系进行了计量检验,结果显示：农村居民消费结构的变化对产业结构的发展具有诱导效应,然而产业结构发展对农村居民消费结构变化的影响在统计上不甚显著。在实证分析结果的基础上,就农村居民消费结构优化与产业结构合理调整提出了相应的政策建议。
总的来说,本论文在研究中国农村居民消费以及与经济增长的关系方面提出了一些新的视角和方法,对于如何启动农村消费市场、实现农村居民有效需求,促进国民经济协调发展有着借鉴和指导意义。
Consumption is the basis for human survival and development, and consumption needs is the original dynamic for the development of society. With the development of economy, the content, structure, style and factors of consumption have changed significantly; meanwhile, consumption has growing impact on social economy. The experience of internal and external economic development shows that to some extent, the speed of economic development depends on the amount of consumption needs, especially in the time economy comes into intermediate or more advanced periods from initial period.
China is a developing agricultural country and in the process of reform and opening-up, its deeply-rooted "Thrifty Concept" has affected our realization about consumption factors called "three-horse-drawn vehicle" boosting economic growth. For decades China has rely more on exports and investment to promote economic growth, ignoring the enormous contribution of consumption factors to economic growth and a huge boost of consumption needs to economic development, resulting in abnormal structure of the Chinese economy and over-dependence of economic development on investment and foreign markets. While Chinese economy has entered a full transitional period, various uncertainties further depressed the national consumption, and the international financial crisis has brought the outbreak of a more serious decline in exports. Thus in reality, investment itself can not maintain economic growth. So how to launch the rural consumption market which takes up a majority of Chinese population is of great significance for the sustained, rapid and stable economic growth of China.
Based on the modern consuming behavior theory of the west, combined with the actual situation in China's rural consumption, using modern econometric methods, and beginning with the consumption structure and the consumption function, this study is committed to carrying an empirical research on the law of the changes of consuming behaviors of rural residents, factors affecting the changes and its relationship with economic growth. The study aims to help explain the root causes of insufficient consuming needs of Chinese rural residents in the economic transition and to supply theoretical support and policy basis to launch the rural consuming market and to promote economic growth.
This paper first reviews and inspects various hypothesis of consumer behavior theory of neo-classical economic theory. Then taking it as reference, it analyses the consuming behaviors of Chinese rural residents in different periods and summarizes the constraints influencing consuming behaviors of Chinese rural residents at the present stage. Furthermore, with dynamic panel data model, it inspects how the income level, the uncertainty, the level of social security and consumption habits affect the consumption structure of Chinese rural residents and thus reveal the behavioral characteristics of Chinese rural residents'consumption and the law of its changes. It is shown that income is still a major factor in rural residents consuming behavior, but with the rapid economic development, consumption prices and social security level have influenced the consumption structure of rural residents more obviously, and moreover, the effects of the long-established consumption habits on consumption needs can not be ignored.
Above these, referring to precautionary saving theory, it derives the mechanism of cautious motives in rural residents'consumption, builds Error-correcting Model of rural residents'consumption and adopts provincial level panel data to verify cautious motives of rural residents'consumption. The result shows that in the transitional period, the institutional changes enhance the risk expectation of the rural residents while credit constraint has not been abated timely and effectively, which arouses stronger cautious motives in rural residents'consumption. Based on the results of empirical analysis, it puts forward some policies recommendations such as strengthening the supply of public goods in rural areas, assuring consumption anticipation of rural residents, etc. In order to deeply explore the relationship between the rural residents'consumption and economic growth, Vector Auto-regression is built to verify the relationship between changes in consumption structure of rural residents and the industrial structure development by using the non-structural approach of econometrics. The results shows that changes in consumption structure of rural residents have induced the industrial structure development, but changes in industrial structure have less obvious effects on the consumption structure of rural residents statistically. With the results of empirical analysis, it recommends corresponding policies about optimization of the consumption structure of rural residents and about a reasonable adjustment of industrial structure.
Overall, the paper puts forward a number of new perspectives and approaches concerning the relationship between Chinese rural residents'consumption and economic growth, which provides a reference and guide on how to start the rural consumer market, to achieve effective demand for rural residents and to promote the coordinated development of the national economy.
中国作为发展中的农业大国,在改革开放过程中,根深蒂固的传统“节俭观”左右了人们对拉动经济增长“三驾马车”中的消费要素的认识,数十年来一直更多地依靠出口和投资拉动经济增长,忽略了消费要素对经济增长的巨大贡献和消费需求对经济发展的巨大推动,以致中国经济结构畸形、经济发展对投资和国外市场的过度依赖。在中国社会经济进入全面转型的时期,各种不确定性因素进一步压抑了国民消费,国际金融危机的爆发更带来了出口的严重萎缩,现实经济生活中,对于经济增长的维系,投资已是独木难支。如何合理、有效地启动占中国人口绝大多数的农村消费市场,对于中国经济保持持续、快速、稳定增长具有非常重要的现实意义。
本研究致力于以西方现代消费行为理论为基础,运用现代计量经济学方法,结合中国农村消费实际状况,从消费结构、消费函数两个方面着手,对农村居民消费行为的变动规律、影响因素以及与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,以期有助于解释经济转型时期中国农村居民消费需求不足的根本原因,为启动农村消费市场,促进经济发展,提供理论支持和政策依据。
论文首先对新古典经济理论关于消费者行为理论的种种假定进行梳理,并以此为参照系,分阶段对中国农村居民消费行为特征进行分析,归纳出了影响现阶段农村居民消费行为的制约因素,建立动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel Data Model),考察了收入水平、不确定性、社会保障水平以及消费习惯对农村居民消费结构的影响效应,从而揭示中国农村居民消费行为特征及变动规律。研究表明：收入仍然是影响农村居民消费行为的主要因素,但随着经济的快速发展,不确定性以及社会保障水平对农村居民消费结构的影响程度更加明显,长期形成的消费习惯对消费需求的影响也不容忽视。然后,在此基础上,借鉴预防性储蓄理论,从理论上推导了农村居民谨慎性消费动机的形成机理,并构建一个农村居民消费函数误差修正模型(Error-correcting Model, ECM),采用省级面板数据,对农村居民谨慎性消费动机进行了验证,结果表明：在转型过程中,制度变迁增强了农村居民的风险预期,以及信贷约束限制没得到及时、有效地松动,使得农村居民存在着较为强烈的谨慎性消费动机。依据实证分析结果,提出了强化农村公共产品供给,减少农村居民消费预期等政策建议。为更好地探讨农村居民消费与经济增长的关系,运用计量经济学非结构方法,建立向量自回归模型(Vector Auto-regression, VAR),对农村居民消费结构的变化与产业结构发展之间的关系进行了计量检验,结果显示：农村居民消费结构的变化对产业结构的发展具有诱导效应,然而产业结构发展对农村居民消费结构变化的影响在统计上不甚显著。在实证分析结果的基础上,就农村居民消费结构优化与产业结构合理调整提出了相应的政策建议。
总的来说,本论文在研究中国农村居民消费以及与经济增长的关系方面提出了一些新的视角和方法,对于如何启动农村消费市场、实现农村居民有效需求,促进国民经济协调发展有着借鉴和指导意义。
Consumption is the basis for human survival and development, and consumption needs is the original dynamic for the development of society. With the development of economy, the content, structure, style and factors of consumption have changed significantly; meanwhile, consumption has growing impact on social economy. The experience of internal and external economic development shows that to some extent, the speed of economic development depends on the amount of consumption needs, especially in the time economy comes into intermediate or more advanced periods from initial period.
China is a developing agricultural country and in the process of reform and opening-up, its deeply-rooted "Thrifty Concept" has affected our realization about consumption factors called "three-horse-drawn vehicle" boosting economic growth. For decades China has rely more on exports and investment to promote economic growth, ignoring the enormous contribution of consumption factors to economic growth and a huge boost of consumption needs to economic development, resulting in abnormal structure of the Chinese economy and over-dependence of economic development on investment and foreign markets. While Chinese economy has entered a full transitional period, various uncertainties further depressed the national consumption, and the international financial crisis has brought the outbreak of a more serious decline in exports. Thus in reality, investment itself can not maintain economic growth. So how to launch the rural consumption market which takes up a majority of Chinese population is of great significance for the sustained, rapid and stable economic growth of China.
Based on the modern consuming behavior theory of the west, combined with the actual situation in China's rural consumption, using modern econometric methods, and beginning with the consumption structure and the consumption function, this study is committed to carrying an empirical research on the law of the changes of consuming behaviors of rural residents, factors affecting the changes and its relationship with economic growth. The study aims to help explain the root causes of insufficient consuming needs of Chinese rural residents in the economic transition and to supply theoretical support and policy basis to launch the rural consuming market and to promote economic growth.
This paper first reviews and inspects various hypothesis of consumer behavior theory of neo-classical economic theory. Then taking it as reference, it analyses the consuming behaviors of Chinese rural residents in different periods and summarizes the constraints influencing consuming behaviors of Chinese rural residents at the present stage. Furthermore, with dynamic panel data model, it inspects how the income level, the uncertainty, the level of social security and consumption habits affect the consumption structure of Chinese rural residents and thus reveal the behavioral characteristics of Chinese rural residents'consumption and the law of its changes. It is shown that income is still a major factor in rural residents consuming behavior, but with the rapid economic development, consumption prices and social security level have influenced the consumption structure of rural residents more obviously, and moreover, the effects of the long-established consumption habits on consumption needs can not be ignored.
Above these, referring to precautionary saving theory, it derives the mechanism of cautious motives in rural residents'consumption, builds Error-correcting Model of rural residents'consumption and adopts provincial level panel data to verify cautious motives of rural residents'consumption. The result shows that in the transitional period, the institutional changes enhance the risk expectation of the rural residents while credit constraint has not been abated timely and effectively, which arouses stronger cautious motives in rural residents'consumption. Based on the results of empirical analysis, it puts forward some policies recommendations such as strengthening the supply of public goods in rural areas, assuring consumption anticipation of rural residents, etc. In order to deeply explore the relationship between the rural residents'consumption and economic growth, Vector Auto-regression is built to verify the relationship between changes in consumption structure of rural residents and the industrial structure development by using the non-structural approach of econometrics. The results shows that changes in consumption structure of rural residents have induced the industrial structure development, but changes in industrial structure have less obvious effects on the consumption structure of rural residents statistically. With the results of empirical analysis, it recommends corresponding policies about optimization of the consumption structure of rural residents and about a reasonable adjustment of industrial structure.
Overall, the paper puts forward a number of new perspectives and approaches concerning the relationship between Chinese rural residents'consumption and economic growth, which provides a reference and guide on how to start the rural consumer market, to achieve effective demand for rural residents and to promote the coordinated development of the national economy.
引文
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