政府融资平台贷款项目风险管理
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摘要
随着中国投融资体制改革的深化,政府职能发生了根本转变。分税制的推进,导致财政收入向中央政府高度集中,加激了各级地方政府旺盛的投资需求与有限的可支配财力之间的矛盾。为了规避现行法律的限制,通过融资平台借贷资金,使用于非经营性、准经营性项目,依靠财政未来收入还本付息成为地方政府间接负债的新形式。近年急剧增长的政府融资平台类贷款潜在很大风险,对中国财政体系、金融体系的安全与稳定形成新的挑战。本文梳理了中国政府投融资体制改革的进程,分析了分税制的影响,确定了政府融资平台贷款项目的范畴,并结合具体的项目实例,运用项目风险管理的方法,从法律风险、行政审批风险、市场风险、建设风险、信用风险等方面进行了定性分析,详细分析了各风险因素的成因、对项目实施的影响程度,再通过专家评价,运用模糊综合评价模型进行定量分析,得出了明确的贷款决策建议。最后有针对性地提出了风险应对规划,即采用BT模式运作;设立合法有效的抵押和质押担保;将完成行政审批和落实资本金作为合同签订的必要条件;敦促上报调整水价等措施。通过研究,为政府融资平台贷款项目的风险管理提供了具有参考意义的范式。
The function of government has radically altered along with the deepen revolution of the investment financial system. Moreover, the system of dividing taxes has been widely promoted, as a result of that it has lead the state revenue to highly concentrate to central government and has provoked the contradiction of the active investment demands from local government at several levels and the limit collective financial resources. In order to getting around the law, a new mode which is to build a financing platform for local government to float loans has emerged. The local government utilizes the future fiscal revenue to repay the interests and principle and accept loans for those Non-operational projects as well as pre-operational projects. However, in recent years, the government financing platform has grown too fast as to accumulate huge risks. These risks have now become a new challenge for the security and stable of the Chinese fiscal system and the financial system.
This paper demonstrates the procedure of the revolution of the investment financial system; it analyzes the influence of the dividing taxes system, and defines the projects for the government financing platform. A detailed project case has been raised as the example. This paper utilize the project risk management methodology and proceed both qualitative and quantitative analysis on different aspects including law risk、risk of government admission、market risk、construction risk and credit risk, etc. It also analyzes the various types of risks and points out how they influence the implementation of the projects. The deterred final loan terms might be given through expert appraisal and vague model analysis. In the end, it has figured out the proposal for releasing the particular types of risks, by using "BT" operation mode, setting effectual mortgage and impawn, setting the government approval and the capital as the initial condition for signing the contract and other methods. This paper has set a considerable model for the government financing system to manage the risk exposed from projects.
The function of government has radically altered along with the deepen revolution of the investment financial system. Moreover, the system of dividing taxes has been widely promoted, as a result of that it has lead the state revenue to highly concentrate to central government and has provoked the contradiction of the active investment demands from local government at several levels and the limit collective financial resources. In order to getting around the law, a new mode which is to build a financing platform for local government to float loans has emerged. The local government utilizes the future fiscal revenue to repay the interests and principle and accept loans for those Non-operational projects as well as pre-operational projects. However, in recent years, the government financing platform has grown too fast as to accumulate huge risks. These risks have now become a new challenge for the security and stable of the Chinese fiscal system and the financial system.
This paper demonstrates the procedure of the revolution of the investment financial system; it analyzes the influence of the dividing taxes system, and defines the projects for the government financing platform. A detailed project case has been raised as the example. This paper utilize the project risk management methodology and proceed both qualitative and quantitative analysis on different aspects including law risk、risk of government admission、market risk、construction risk and credit risk, etc. It also analyzes the various types of risks and points out how they influence the implementation of the projects. The deterred final loan terms might be given through expert appraisal and vague model analysis. In the end, it has figured out the proposal for releasing the particular types of risks, by using "BT" operation mode, setting effectual mortgage and impawn, setting the government approval and the capital as the initial condition for signing the contract and other methods. This paper has set a considerable model for the government financing system to manage the risk exposed from projects.
引文
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[2][美]安东尼·桑德斯著,刘宇飞译:《信用风险度量》,北京:机械工业出版社,2002
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[4]李志辉:《现代信用风险量化度量管理研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2001
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[6]杨凯生:《银行风险防范和危机化解比较国际研究》,上海:上海国际出版社,2001
[7][美]项目管理协会著,卢有杰、王勇译:《项目管理知识体系指南》(第三版),北京,电子工业出版社,2005
[8]任志华,王俊涛:《金融信用风险的表现及管理模型分析》,《南开经济研究》,2003年第4期
[9]张晓松:《西方商业银行贷款风险管理及其借鉴》,《财经研究》,2000第11期
[10][美]詹姆斯·格里森:《财务风险管理》,中文版,北京,中华工商联合出版社,2000
[11]周延鲸:《银行信贷风险量化研究》,《系统工程》1997年第5期
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[14]王春峰:《金融市场风险管理》,天津,天津大学出版社,2001
[15]姜青舫,陈方正:《风险度量原理》,上海,同济大学出版社,2000
[16][美]高盛,瑞银华宝:《风险管理事务》(中文版),北京,中国金融出版社,2000
[17]王英军:《工程项目管理》,北京,中国石化出版社,1996
[18]洪锡熙:《风险管理》,广州,暨南大学出版社,1999
[19]王玲玲,强茂山:《固定资产贷款项目评估及风险评价体系分析与对比》,《工程经济》。2006年第8期
[20]章彰:《商业银行信用风险管理--兼论巴塞尔协议》,北京,中国人民大学出版 社,2002
[21]王卓甫:《工程项目风险管理:理论、防范与运用》,北京,中国水利水电出版社,2003
[22]蒋先玲:《项目融资》,北京,中国金融出版社,2001
[23]陈志华:《代建制的风险分析与控制措施》,《经济问题》,2006年第4期
[24]徐大鹏等:《项目融资的风险控制技术》,《投资研究》,1999年第4期
[25]张极井:《项目融资》,北京,中信出版社,2003
[26]简德兰:《投资项目评估》,上海,上海财经大学出版社,1999
[27]屈哲:《项目融资风险及其规避》,《财经问题研究》2005年第5期
[28]叶金强:《担保法原理》,北京,科学出版社,2003
[29]向强,杜蕾:《代建制的风险与防范措施》,《建筑经济》,2005年第4期
[30]冯锋,张瑞青:《公用事业项目融资及其路径选择》,《软科学》,2005年第6期
[31]王鹤松:《项目融资财务分析》,北京,中国金融出版社,2005
[32]沈建明:《项目风险管理》,北京,机械工业出版社,2004
[33]陈戈止:《技术经济学》,成都,西南财经大学出版社,2002
[34]袁铁象:《项目投资策划与评估》,北京,中国社会出版社,1997
[35][美]菲利普.科特勒著,梅清豪译:《营销管理》(第11版),上海,上海人民出版社,2006
[36]乌云娜,牛东晓:《政府投资建设项目代建制理论与实务》,北京,电子工业出版社,2007
[37][美]斯蒂芬·D.威廉森著,郭庆旺等译:《宏观经济学》,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2007
[38]朱玲:《转轨时期中央与地方之间财政关系的调整》,《国际经济评论》,1997年第1期
[39]财政部预算司:《中国政府间财政关系》,北京,中国财政经济出版社,2003
[40]宋兴义:《分税制改革后我国中央和地方政府间财政分配关系走向分析》,《内蒙古社会科学》,2005年第3期
[41]程丹:《政府间财政分权关系之探讨》,《暨南学报(人文科学与社会科学版)》。2004年第4期
[42]项怀诚:《分税制改革的回顾与展望》,《武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》,2004 年第1期
[42]文英:《转型时期的税收理论与制度创新》,四川,西南财经大学出版社,2001
[2][美]安东尼·桑德斯著,刘宇飞译:《信用风险度量》,北京:机械工业出版社,2002
[3]胡冰星:《商业银行信贷风险管理》,上海,上海三联出版社,1995
[4]李志辉:《现代信用风险量化度量管理研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2001
[5]王松江,李昕:《创造未来--项目规划与决策管理》,云南:云南科技出版社,2001
[6]杨凯生:《银行风险防范和危机化解比较国际研究》,上海:上海国际出版社,2001
[7][美]项目管理协会著,卢有杰、王勇译:《项目管理知识体系指南》(第三版),北京,电子工业出版社,2005
[8]任志华,王俊涛:《金融信用风险的表现及管理模型分析》,《南开经济研究》,2003年第4期
[9]张晓松:《西方商业银行贷款风险管理及其借鉴》,《财经研究》,2000第11期
[10][美]詹姆斯·格里森:《财务风险管理》,中文版,北京,中华工商联合出版社,2000
[11]周延鲸:《银行信贷风险量化研究》,《系统工程》1997年第5期
[12]陈学安、王学军,尉维斌等,《项目融资与风险管理》,北京,中国建筑工业出版社,1996
[13]于九如:《投资项目风险分析》,北京,机械工业出版社,1999
[14]王春峰:《金融市场风险管理》,天津,天津大学出版社,2001
[15]姜青舫,陈方正:《风险度量原理》,上海,同济大学出版社,2000
[16][美]高盛,瑞银华宝:《风险管理事务》(中文版),北京,中国金融出版社,2000
[17]王英军:《工程项目管理》,北京,中国石化出版社,1996
[18]洪锡熙:《风险管理》,广州,暨南大学出版社,1999
[19]王玲玲,强茂山:《固定资产贷款项目评估及风险评价体系分析与对比》,《工程经济》。2006年第8期
[20]章彰:《商业银行信用风险管理--兼论巴塞尔协议》,北京,中国人民大学出版 社,2002
[21]王卓甫:《工程项目风险管理:理论、防范与运用》,北京,中国水利水电出版社,2003
[22]蒋先玲:《项目融资》,北京,中国金融出版社,2001
[23]陈志华:《代建制的风险分析与控制措施》,《经济问题》,2006年第4期
[24]徐大鹏等:《项目融资的风险控制技术》,《投资研究》,1999年第4期
[25]张极井:《项目融资》,北京,中信出版社,2003
[26]简德兰:《投资项目评估》,上海,上海财经大学出版社,1999
[27]屈哲:《项目融资风险及其规避》,《财经问题研究》2005年第5期
[28]叶金强:《担保法原理》,北京,科学出版社,2003
[29]向强,杜蕾:《代建制的风险与防范措施》,《建筑经济》,2005年第4期
[30]冯锋,张瑞青:《公用事业项目融资及其路径选择》,《软科学》,2005年第6期
[31]王鹤松:《项目融资财务分析》,北京,中国金融出版社,2005
[32]沈建明:《项目风险管理》,北京,机械工业出版社,2004
[33]陈戈止:《技术经济学》,成都,西南财经大学出版社,2002
[34]袁铁象:《项目投资策划与评估》,北京,中国社会出版社,1997
[35][美]菲利普.科特勒著,梅清豪译:《营销管理》(第11版),上海,上海人民出版社,2006
[36]乌云娜,牛东晓:《政府投资建设项目代建制理论与实务》,北京,电子工业出版社,2007
[37][美]斯蒂芬·D.威廉森著,郭庆旺等译:《宏观经济学》,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2007
[38]朱玲:《转轨时期中央与地方之间财政关系的调整》,《国际经济评论》,1997年第1期
[39]财政部预算司:《中国政府间财政关系》,北京,中国财政经济出版社,2003
[40]宋兴义:《分税制改革后我国中央和地方政府间财政分配关系走向分析》,《内蒙古社会科学》,2005年第3期
[41]程丹:《政府间财政分权关系之探讨》,《暨南学报(人文科学与社会科学版)》。2004年第4期
[42]项怀诚:《分税制改革的回顾与展望》,《武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》,2004 年第1期
[42]文英:《转型时期的税收理论与制度创新》,四川,西南财经大学出版社,2001