BOT项目中非系统性风险对特许经营权期的影响研究
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摘要
由于我国交通基础工程建设需求大、投资高、周期长,国家投资有限,不能满足我国基础建设发展需要。为了快速发展我国经济,扩大我国基础设施建设的投资来源,丰富其投资主体,BOT作为一种新型的项目融资模式在我国交通基础设施建设领域的应用越来越广泛。但BOT项目在实际操作过程中仍有许多的问题有待研究。
特许权期限的确定是特许权协议中最关键的内容之一,能否合理的确定特许权期限是保证投资者与政府双方利益的关键。根据传统项目融资理论,项目的收益主要取决于与项目有关的一系列不确定因素,对特定的工程项目产生的影响是可以避免的,通常情况下风险投资在进行投资决策时更关心非系统风险对特许权期限确定的影响,因此,本文研究BOT项目的非系统性风险对特许权期的影响更具有理论与现实意义。
本文针对BOT项目非系统性风险对特许权期类型选择和参数确定进行了分析研究,构建了考虑非系统风险影响下的特许期计算公式,并以实例进行了验证,得出的特许权期长度很好的符合了实际工程情况。
The limited state investment can not meet China's infrastructure development needs in the infrastructure construction area because of huge requirements, high investment and long construction cycle. In order to rapidly develop China's economy, expand the infrastructure investment sources and enrich its investors, BOT projects, as a new financing model, have more extensive application in China's infrastructure projects construction. However, there are still many issues to be considered in the practical operation of BOT projects.
The concession period determination is one of most important contents in the concession agreement, the determination of a reasonable concession period is the key to ensure the interests of both investors and the government. According to the traditional theory of project financing, the proceeds profits of the project depends primarily on a series of uncertainties, the impact on the entire industry's economic situation and political factors and other factors could be avoided in some projects. Under normal circumstances, investors are more concerned about non-system risk effect on concession period when venture capital investment decisions are made, so the research of non-system risk effect on concession period in BOT projects have practical meanings in this paper.
In this paper, we have quite thorough research of Non-system risk effect on the concession period limited. At the same time quantitative analyses are made to the impact of the risk and consideration to build a non-systemic risk factor of the concession period under the formula. the theory and methods are applied in the case analysis, the calculated length of the concession period matches well with that in the real situation.
特许权期限的确定是特许权协议中最关键的内容之一,能否合理的确定特许权期限是保证投资者与政府双方利益的关键。根据传统项目融资理论,项目的收益主要取决于与项目有关的一系列不确定因素,对特定的工程项目产生的影响是可以避免的,通常情况下风险投资在进行投资决策时更关心非系统风险对特许权期限确定的影响,因此,本文研究BOT项目的非系统性风险对特许权期的影响更具有理论与现实意义。
本文针对BOT项目非系统性风险对特许权期类型选择和参数确定进行了分析研究,构建了考虑非系统风险影响下的特许期计算公式,并以实例进行了验证,得出的特许权期长度很好的符合了实际工程情况。
The limited state investment can not meet China's infrastructure development needs in the infrastructure construction area because of huge requirements, high investment and long construction cycle. In order to rapidly develop China's economy, expand the infrastructure investment sources and enrich its investors, BOT projects, as a new financing model, have more extensive application in China's infrastructure projects construction. However, there are still many issues to be considered in the practical operation of BOT projects.
The concession period determination is one of most important contents in the concession agreement, the determination of a reasonable concession period is the key to ensure the interests of both investors and the government. According to the traditional theory of project financing, the proceeds profits of the project depends primarily on a series of uncertainties, the impact on the entire industry's economic situation and political factors and other factors could be avoided in some projects. Under normal circumstances, investors are more concerned about non-system risk effect on concession period when venture capital investment decisions are made, so the research of non-system risk effect on concession period in BOT projects have practical meanings in this paper.
In this paper, we have quite thorough research of Non-system risk effect on the concession period limited. At the same time quantitative analyses are made to the impact of the risk and consideration to build a non-systemic risk factor of the concession period under the formula. the theory and methods are applied in the case analysis, the calculated length of the concession period matches well with that in the real situation.
引文
[1]赵华等.工程项目融资.人民交通出版社.2004,1
[2]国家发展与改革委员会.2005中国投资报告[M].中国计划出版社,2005,16
[3]宋翔. 公路建设发展中BO丁模式及特许经营问题与政府职能分析.硕士学位论文.2005,5
[4]戴大双.项目融资[M].机械工业出版社.2004,10
[5]邵瑞庆.水运交通基础设施建设项目融资方式.交通运输工程学报.2003,3
[6]郑垂勇.水利基本建设项目融资方式研究(上).水利经济.2002,9
[7]于志英.BT工程建设方式浅析.水利科技与经济.2004,8
[8]肖春华.上海市轨道交通建设BT模式初探.隧道建设.2002,6
[9]陈有安、王学军等.《项目融资与风险管理》.中国计划出版社2000年10月
[10]孙卫东.项目融资在水电工程项目中的适用性分析[J].企业经济.2001(5):13-16
[11]王卓甫.工程项目管理模式及其创新.水利水电出版社.2006
[12] 刘省平.BOT项目融资与实务.西安交通大学出版社.2002,9
[13]Twila-Mae Logan. Optimal Debt Capacity for BOT Projects in Emerging Economies [J]. The Journal of Structured and Project Finance.2003(8):26-28
[14]王卓甫.工程项目管理风险及其应对.水利水电出版社.2006
[15] Patrick T Lam. A Sect Oral Review of Risks Associated with Major Infrastructure Projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management. 1999 (17):77一87
[16]张新民.BOT项目特许权期限研究.河海大学硕士学位论文.2006,6
[17]CM.Tam. Build-operate-transfer model for infrastructure developments Asia: reasons for successes and failures[J].international Journal of project Management Vol.17,No.6,pp.377-382,1999.
[18]S.Ye,R.K.L.Tiong. Government Support and Risk-Return Trade-off in China's BOT PowerProject[J].Engineering Construction and Architectural Management. 2000,7 (4):412-422
[19]Robert L.K.Tiong.Sudong Ye. The Effect of Concession Period Design on Completion Risk Management of BOT Projects[J].Construction Managementand Economecs.2003 (21):471 -482
[20] L. Y. Shen,Y. Z. Wu.Risk Concession Model for Build Operate Transfer Contract Projects[J].the Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2005,2(2): 131
[21]Engle, E.M.R.A., Fischer, R.D. Least-Present-Value of Revenue Auctions and highway franchising. Working Paper 6689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge,USA
[22]于国安.基础设施特许权合约设计的经济分析[J]河海大学博士学位论文.2004
[23]李启明,申立银.基础设施BOT项目特许权期的决策模型[J].管理工程学报.2000,14 (1):43-47
[24]项阳. BOT方式的特许权及相关问题分析[J]. 决策借鉴.2001,14(6):9-10
[25]张极井.项目融资[M].北京中信出版社.1999,5
[26]Ka Chi Lam, Wing Sing Chow. The Significance of Financial Risks in BOT Procurement [J],Building Research and Information.1999 (27):84-95
[27] Patrick T I Lam. A sectoral review of risks associated with major infrastructure projects[J].International Journal of Project Manageanent.1999(2):77-87
[28]高丽峰,王询,BOT项目融资理论与实践.东北大学出版社,2004
[29]K. T. Yeoa, Robert L. K. Tiongb. Positive management of di. Erences for risk reduction in BOT projects [J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2000(18): 257-265
[30]孙博虎.基于风险分担的BOT项目特许期研究.大连理工大学硕士学位论文.2004,6
[31]张旭明.项目融资理论与实务.经济出版社.1999
[32]王辉,何伯森.BOT模式项目融资的风险研究[J].中国软科学.1999(5),113-117
[33]刘德学,樊治平,工欣荣. 风险投资项目非系统风险的分析与评价[J]. 系统工程理论方法应用.2002,9(3):198-206
[34]http://www.cqvip.com.当心项目融资风险:印度大博电厂.
[35]卢家仪,卢有杰.项目融资[M].清华大学出版社.1998
[36]C M TAM. Features of power industries in SoutheastAsia,study of BOT power projeetsinehina[J].International Journal of project Management.1995,13(5):303-311
[37] Sergio Hinojosa. Broad Roads in a Thin Country. The World Bank.2000
[38]张宏. 陕西省公路建设项目采用TOT-BOT项目融资方式的风险研究.硕士学位论文.2003
[39]Sudong Ye, Robert L.K. Tiong. The Effect of Concession Period Design on Completion Risk Management of BOT Projects[J].Construction Management and Economics.2003 (27):471-482
[40]lrem Dikmen Ozdoganm,M.TalatBirgonul.A decision support frame work for project of BOT projects[J].Construetion Management and Economies.2000(18): 343-353
[41]富宁. 初探BOT融资方式运用在我国公路建设中的风险识别.2006(3):58-59
[42]Tarek M. Zayed,S.M.ASCE, Luh-Maan Chang M. ASCE. Prototype model for BOT projects[J].Journal of Management in Engineering,2002(1):7-11
[43]屈哲.项目融资风险评估——引入动态分析的定量评估[J].辽宁师范大学学报(自然科学版). 2003, (3): 97-99
[44]《投资项目可行性研究指南》编写组编.投资项目可行性研究指南[M].中国电力出版社.2002,1
[45]邓向荣.投资经济学[M].天津大学出版社.2001
[46]Darrin Grimsey,Mervyn K.Lewis. Evaluating the risk of public private vartner- ships for infrastrueture project[J].International Journal of Projeet Management,2002,20:107-118
[47]国家计划委员会、建设部发布《.建设项目经济评价方法与参数》(第二版)[M].中国计划出版社,1995:114一119
[48]党立艳,胡征宇.关于确立建设项目财务基准收益率的研究与探讨[J],中国工程咨询.2003(10):43
[49]王燕,康锋.基准收益率的影响困素及确定方法[J].工业技术经济.2003,130(6):65-67
[50]戴大双.BOT项目风险量化方法与应用[J].科技管理研究.2005(2):98-101
[51]王守清,刘申亮.项目融资的一种方式—BOT[J].项目管理技术.2003(6):1-4
[2]国家发展与改革委员会.2005中国投资报告[M].中国计划出版社,2005,16
[3]宋翔. 公路建设发展中BO丁模式及特许经营问题与政府职能分析.硕士学位论文.2005,5
[4]戴大双.项目融资[M].机械工业出版社.2004,10
[5]邵瑞庆.水运交通基础设施建设项目融资方式.交通运输工程学报.2003,3
[6]郑垂勇.水利基本建设项目融资方式研究(上).水利经济.2002,9
[7]于志英.BT工程建设方式浅析.水利科技与经济.2004,8
[8]肖春华.上海市轨道交通建设BT模式初探.隧道建设.2002,6
[9]陈有安、王学军等.《项目融资与风险管理》.中国计划出版社2000年10月
[10]孙卫东.项目融资在水电工程项目中的适用性分析[J].企业经济.2001(5):13-16
[11]王卓甫.工程项目管理模式及其创新.水利水电出版社.2006
[12] 刘省平.BOT项目融资与实务.西安交通大学出版社.2002,9
[13]Twila-Mae Logan. Optimal Debt Capacity for BOT Projects in Emerging Economies [J]. The Journal of Structured and Project Finance.2003(8):26-28
[14]王卓甫.工程项目管理风险及其应对.水利水电出版社.2006
[15] Patrick T Lam. A Sect Oral Review of Risks Associated with Major Infrastructure Projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management. 1999 (17):77一87
[16]张新民.BOT项目特许权期限研究.河海大学硕士学位论文.2006,6
[17]CM.Tam. Build-operate-transfer model for infrastructure developments Asia: reasons for successes and failures[J].international Journal of project Management Vol.17,No.6,pp.377-382,1999.
[18]S.Ye,R.K.L.Tiong. Government Support and Risk-Return Trade-off in China's BOT PowerProject[J].Engineering Construction and Architectural Management. 2000,7 (4):412-422
[19]Robert L.K.Tiong.Sudong Ye. The Effect of Concession Period Design on Completion Risk Management of BOT Projects[J].Construction Managementand Economecs.2003 (21):471 -482
[20] L. Y. Shen,Y. Z. Wu.Risk Concession Model for Build Operate Transfer Contract Projects[J].the Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2005,2(2): 131
[21]Engle, E.M.R.A., Fischer, R.D. Least-Present-Value of Revenue Auctions and highway franchising. Working Paper 6689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge,USA
[22]于国安.基础设施特许权合约设计的经济分析[J]河海大学博士学位论文.2004
[23]李启明,申立银.基础设施BOT项目特许权期的决策模型[J].管理工程学报.2000,14 (1):43-47
[24]项阳. BOT方式的特许权及相关问题分析[J]. 决策借鉴.2001,14(6):9-10
[25]张极井.项目融资[M].北京中信出版社.1999,5
[26]Ka Chi Lam, Wing Sing Chow. The Significance of Financial Risks in BOT Procurement [J],Building Research and Information.1999 (27):84-95
[27] Patrick T I Lam. A sectoral review of risks associated with major infrastructure projects[J].International Journal of Project Manageanent.1999(2):77-87
[28]高丽峰,王询,BOT项目融资理论与实践.东北大学出版社,2004
[29]K. T. Yeoa, Robert L. K. Tiongb. Positive management of di. Erences for risk reduction in BOT projects [J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2000(18): 257-265
[30]孙博虎.基于风险分担的BOT项目特许期研究.大连理工大学硕士学位论文.2004,6
[31]张旭明.项目融资理论与实务.经济出版社.1999
[32]王辉,何伯森.BOT模式项目融资的风险研究[J].中国软科学.1999(5),113-117
[33]刘德学,樊治平,工欣荣. 风险投资项目非系统风险的分析与评价[J]. 系统工程理论方法应用.2002,9(3):198-206
[34]http://www.cqvip.com.当心项目融资风险:印度大博电厂.
[35]卢家仪,卢有杰.项目融资[M].清华大学出版社.1998
[36]C M TAM. Features of power industries in SoutheastAsia,study of BOT power projeetsinehina[J].International Journal of project Management.1995,13(5):303-311
[37] Sergio Hinojosa. Broad Roads in a Thin Country. The World Bank.2000
[38]张宏. 陕西省公路建设项目采用TOT-BOT项目融资方式的风险研究.硕士学位论文.2003
[39]Sudong Ye, Robert L.K. Tiong. The Effect of Concession Period Design on Completion Risk Management of BOT Projects[J].Construction Management and Economics.2003 (27):471-482
[40]lrem Dikmen Ozdoganm,M.TalatBirgonul.A decision support frame work for project of BOT projects[J].Construetion Management and Economies.2000(18): 343-353
[41]富宁. 初探BOT融资方式运用在我国公路建设中的风险识别.2006(3):58-59
[42]Tarek M. Zayed,S.M.ASCE, Luh-Maan Chang M. ASCE. Prototype model for BOT projects[J].Journal of Management in Engineering,2002(1):7-11
[43]屈哲.项目融资风险评估——引入动态分析的定量评估[J].辽宁师范大学学报(自然科学版). 2003, (3): 97-99
[44]《投资项目可行性研究指南》编写组编.投资项目可行性研究指南[M].中国电力出版社.2002,1
[45]邓向荣.投资经济学[M].天津大学出版社.2001
[46]Darrin Grimsey,Mervyn K.Lewis. Evaluating the risk of public private vartner- ships for infrastrueture project[J].International Journal of Projeet Management,2002,20:107-118
[47]国家计划委员会、建设部发布《.建设项目经济评价方法与参数》(第二版)[M].中国计划出版社,1995:114一119
[48]党立艳,胡征宇.关于确立建设项目财务基准收益率的研究与探讨[J],中国工程咨询.2003(10):43
[49]王燕,康锋.基准收益率的影响困素及确定方法[J].工业技术经济.2003,130(6):65-67
[50]戴大双.BOT项目风险量化方法与应用[J].科技管理研究.2005(2):98-101
[51]王守清,刘申亮.项目融资的一种方式—BOT[J].项目管理技术.2003(6):1-4