BOT项目的风险识别与应对
摘要
本人在论文《BOT项目的风险识别与应对》中，主要从当前为了拓宽我国基础设施项目的融资渠道，采用了BOT这种项目融资方式，而BOT项目融资在实施过程中，存在着很大的风险，因而需要引起人们的重视。对每个BOT项目当事人来说，都有若干可能发生的风险，而且BOT项目的风险远远超过一般投资项目的风险。因而对项目风险的有效识别和合理采取应对措施，是对BOT项目各方提高效益的关键。
本论文对BOT项目融资的结构、利益相关者进行了较系统的分析。分析BOT项目融资的利益相关者的基础之上，进一步运用核对表法研究BOT项目融资风险的识别，运用综合评价法对BOT项目风险进行评价，构成对BOT项目融资风险的分析，结合案例及专家的观点来提出BOT项目融资风险的应对措施。
本论文采用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法，运用大连某污水处理厂的实际案例，对BOT项目的利益相关者分析、风险的识别与应对给与验证，进一步加深对风险管理的认识。
The BOT finance model has very important significance in soloving the capital problem of national infrastructure and promoting the development of national economy speedily. We pay our attention to BOT, because there are very many risks in the course of implention of BOT finance model. To every party of BOT project, risks probably take place and risks of BOT project are tremendous than ordinary those of investment project. Therefor parties of BOT project should identify efficiently and adopt measures in reasons to risks of project. Moreover it is a key to manage project, cut down costing and advance benefits in BOT.
In paper, I analysis systemly structure of BOT project and relativity of benefit. On the base of analyses of BOT relativity, I research risk identify according to cheaking methods and appraise risks of BOT project in colligating estimatation. I bring forward many counter measures to risks of BOT project in view of cases and experts.
Lastly, combing normative analysis with positive analysis method, I use the case of some sewage factory in Dalian to verify methods of BOT project and accelerate understandings to risks of BOT project.
本论文对BOT项目融资的结构、利益相关者进行了较系统的分析。分析BOT项目融资的利益相关者的基础之上，进一步运用核对表法研究BOT项目融资风险的识别，运用综合评价法对BOT项目风险进行评价，构成对BOT项目融资风险的分析，结合案例及专家的观点来提出BOT项目融资风险的应对措施。
本论文采用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法，运用大连某污水处理厂的实际案例，对BOT项目的利益相关者分析、风险的识别与应对给与验证，进一步加深对风险管理的认识。
The BOT finance model has very important significance in soloving the capital problem of national infrastructure and promoting the development of national economy speedily. We pay our attention to BOT, because there are very many risks in the course of implention of BOT finance model. To every party of BOT project, risks probably take place and risks of BOT project are tremendous than ordinary those of investment project. Therefor parties of BOT project should identify efficiently and adopt measures in reasons to risks of project. Moreover it is a key to manage project, cut down costing and advance benefits in BOT.
In paper, I analysis systemly structure of BOT project and relativity of benefit. On the base of analyses of BOT relativity, I research risk identify according to cheaking methods and appraise risks of BOT project in colligating estimatation. I bring forward many counter measures to risks of BOT project in view of cases and experts.
Lastly, combing normative analysis with positive analysis method, I use the case of some sewage factory in Dalian to verify methods of BOT project and accelerate understandings to risks of BOT project.
引文
[1] Kwak, Young Hoon;Ibbs. c. william. Berkeley Project Management Process Maturity Model: Measuring the value of project management. IEEE International Engineering Management Conference Aug 13-Aug 15 2000, (3): 20-23
[2] Smit, Izak. Teaching project management skills using project management - a true hands-on experience. ASEE Annual Conference Proceedings Jun 28-Jul 1 1998, 1:33-36
[3] Bryde, David J. Establishing a project organization and a project-management process for telecommunications project management. International Journal of Project Management 13 1 Feb 1995 Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd. 1995, (3): 20-25
[4] Cheng, Jao-Hong. A view of public and private sectors for Taiwan's BOT transportation project financing using fuzzy multi-criteria methods. International Conference on Fuzzy Systems v 1 Dec 2-5 2001, (5): 24-26
[5] Chang, L.-M.,Chen, P.H. BOW financial model: Taiwan high speed rail case. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management v 127 n 3 May/June.2001, (5): 34-37
[6] Zhang, X.-Q.; Rumaraswamy. Hong Kong experience in managing BOT projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management v 127 n 2 March/April 2001, 4:22-25
[7] Wang, Shou Qing; Tiong, Robert L.K.; Ting, S.K.; Ashley, D. Evaluation and management of political risks in China's BOT projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 126 3 2000 ASCE. 1993, (3): 27-28
[8] Yeo, K.T.; Tiong, Robert L.K. Positive management of differences for risk reduction in BOT projects. International Journal of Project Management 18 4 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2000, 4:11-14
[9] Clifford chance: 《PROJECT FINANCE》,IFR. Publish Ltd, 1991, (3): 13-15
[10] Peter K. Nevitt. Frank. Fabozzi 《PROJECT FINANCE》.Euromoney Publication PLC, 1995,4: 10-20
[11] R.G. uinfield, S.J. Curry: 《Success In Investment》. John Murray Ltd. 1987.3:34-36
[12] Ming Lu and AboutRisk S M. Simplified CPM/PERT Simulation Model, J. contr. Engrg. And Mgmt. ,ASCE, 2000,126(3):219-226
[13] Mohammad A Mustafa ,Jam al FAI- Bahar. Project risk assessment using the analytic hierarchy process [J].IEEETransactionson Engineering Management. 1991,38(1):46-52.
[14] [英]clifford chance．法律公司著，龚辉宏译，《项目融资》．华夏出版社．1997．
[15]余健明．积极运用BOT投资方式，中国投资与建设．1997，8：74-136
[16]李友申．项目融资——值得研究和利用的外资引进方式，世界经济．1996，6．
[17]杨惠馨．基础设施建设中的BOT融资，中国工业经济．1995．
[18]简德三，投资项目评估，上海财经大学 1999
[19]王维才，戴淑芬．投资项目可行性分析与项目管理，冶金工业出版社 2000
[20]杨建基，国际工程项目管理，中国水利水电出版社 1999：166-183
[21]白思俊，现代项目管理，机械工业出版社 2002，4：125-176
[22]张极井．项目融资，中信出版社．1997，5：180-189
[23]闫小言，王中华．新编国际融资方式，首都经济贸易大学出版社．1999，5．
[24]马秀岩，卢洪升。《项目融资》，东北财经大学出版社。2002，4：166-176
[25][美]詹姆斯《模拟与风险分析》，上海人民出版社，2001，3：10-11
[26]赵大友．经济研究．《经济师》．2003，7：82-83
[27]姚亮，周晶．BOT项目风险及来源分析．东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版)．2002．(10)：8-12
[28]屈哲．项目融资的风险及其规避．财经问题研究．2002，5(222)：32-35
[29]王辉，何伯森．BOT模式项目融资的风险研究．中国软科学．1999，5：113-121
[30]张帆．BOT方式中项目投资者的风险管理．基建优化．2002，10(5)：29-32
[31]薛桦．项目融资的风险及其规避和控制．湖南大学学报(社会科学版)．2001．12(4)：63-66
[2] Smit, Izak. Teaching project management skills using project management - a true hands-on experience. ASEE Annual Conference Proceedings Jun 28-Jul 1 1998, 1:33-36
[3] Bryde, David J. Establishing a project organization and a project-management process for telecommunications project management. International Journal of Project Management 13 1 Feb 1995 Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd. 1995, (3): 20-25
[4] Cheng, Jao-Hong. A view of public and private sectors for Taiwan's BOT transportation project financing using fuzzy multi-criteria methods. International Conference on Fuzzy Systems v 1 Dec 2-5 2001, (5): 24-26
[5] Chang, L.-M.,Chen, P.H. BOW financial model: Taiwan high speed rail case. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management v 127 n 3 May/June.2001, (5): 34-37
[6] Zhang, X.-Q.; Rumaraswamy. Hong Kong experience in managing BOT projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management v 127 n 2 March/April 2001, 4:22-25
[7] Wang, Shou Qing; Tiong, Robert L.K.; Ting, S.K.; Ashley, D. Evaluation and management of political risks in China's BOT projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 126 3 2000 ASCE. 1993, (3): 27-28
[8] Yeo, K.T.; Tiong, Robert L.K. Positive management of differences for risk reduction in BOT projects. International Journal of Project Management 18 4 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. 2000, 4:11-14
[9] Clifford chance: 《PROJECT FINANCE》,IFR. Publish Ltd, 1991, (3): 13-15
[10] Peter K. Nevitt. Frank. Fabozzi 《PROJECT FINANCE》.Euromoney Publication PLC, 1995,4: 10-20
[11] R.G. uinfield, S.J. Curry: 《Success In Investment》. John Murray Ltd. 1987.3:34-36
[12] Ming Lu and AboutRisk S M. Simplified CPM/PERT Simulation Model, J. contr. Engrg. And Mgmt. ,ASCE, 2000,126(3):219-226
[13] Mohammad A Mustafa ,Jam al FAI- Bahar. Project risk assessment using the analytic hierarchy process [J].IEEETransactionson Engineering Management. 1991,38(1):46-52.
[14] [英]clifford chance．法律公司著，龚辉宏译，《项目融资》．华夏出版社．1997．
[15]余健明．积极运用BOT投资方式，中国投资与建设．1997，8：74-136
[16]李友申．项目融资——值得研究和利用的外资引进方式，世界经济．1996，6．
[17]杨惠馨．基础设施建设中的BOT融资，中国工业经济．1995．
[18]简德三，投资项目评估，上海财经大学 1999
[19]王维才，戴淑芬．投资项目可行性分析与项目管理，冶金工业出版社 2000
[20]杨建基，国际工程项目管理，中国水利水电出版社 1999：166-183
[21]白思俊，现代项目管理，机械工业出版社 2002，4：125-176
[22]张极井．项目融资，中信出版社．1997，5：180-189
[23]闫小言，王中华．新编国际融资方式，首都经济贸易大学出版社．1999，5．
[24]马秀岩，卢洪升。《项目融资》，东北财经大学出版社。2002，4：166-176
[25][美]詹姆斯《模拟与风险分析》，上海人民出版社，2001，3：10-11
[26]赵大友．经济研究．《经济师》．2003，7：82-83
[27]姚亮，周晶．BOT项目风险及来源分析．东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版)．2002．(10)：8-12
[28]屈哲．项目融资的风险及其规避．财经问题研究．2002，5(222)：32-35
[29]王辉，何伯森．BOT模式项目融资的风险研究．中国软科学．1999，5：113-121
[30]张帆．BOT方式中项目投资者的风险管理．基建优化．2002，10(5)：29-32
[31]薛桦．项目融资的风险及其规避和控制．湖南大学学报(社会科学版)．2001．12(4)：63-66