基于现代物流条件的运输规划方案研究
摘要
通过对物流条件下运输规划包括运输需求预测、系统规划、配套设施规划以及综合评价在内全过程的研究,较全面、细致地分析和阐述了现代物流发展对运输规划方法的影响,并将其应用于规划过程。通过对现代物流业与运输业的关系、物流条件下运输与传统运输的关系、物流条件下运输规划与传统运输规划关系以及物流条件下运输网络规划与综合运输网规划关系的比较,进一步明确了物流条件下运输规划的地位和作用。
利用系统分析及建立模型的方法,较全面地分析研究了物流对运输需求及运输规划方法的影响。结合物流条件下运输自身的特点,提出物流条件下运输需求的计算方法和物流条件下运输量常用的预测模型,并综合考虑各限制因素对物流条件下运输量的影响,得到综合限制模型。作为物流条件下主要的运输基础设施,重点研究了物流条件下运输系统中有着特殊地位作用的枢纽型物流中心的规划方法,枢纽型物流中心是物流条件下运输系统中兼有运输枢纽和物流服务双重功能的综合体,其规模大小与城市的规模和地位密切相关。枢纽型物流中心的规划方法采用重要度法及动态聚类法。重要度法是通过综合量度区域内各结点相对重要性,来排定结点顺序,从而选择结点。
而将动态聚类法应用于区域物流中心规划的基本思路是:先将规划区域中的所有结点视为聚类分析的样本;再按一定的标准将样本分为不同类,每一类具有典型的特征,最后根据需要按重要程度逐类选择结点。在此基础上进行了运输网络的规划,并给出通行能力下限模型,通过社会物流系统成本最低的限制及运输要素有效配合,实现物流条件下运输合理化。
本文还就物流对运输配套设施规划的影响以及电子商务与物流、运输系统的相互影响进行了简单的探讨。通过分析物流对运输系统效益综合评价的影响,给出物流条件下运输系统效益的综合评价方法,使规划方案具有可行性和可信度。
论文以山西铁路物流系统为例,作了一些应用方面的尝试。
本文研究的理论及实际意义在于一方面适应现代物流的发展,明确了物流对运输规划方法的影响;另一方面,对我国物流条件下运输设施的发展规划提出理论与实际的方法参考。
This paper studies the influence of logistics on transportation planning from the point of the social economy system, including demand forecasting, system planning, supporting facilities and overall evaluation downright, roundly and finely, and putting into practice. The status and action of transportation planning on logistics is affirmed through comparing logistics condition with traditional transportation condition, including transportation mode, system planning, network planning and so on.Using systems analysis and model formation, the influence of logistics on transportation demand and system planning is analyzed and studied; calculation method and common forecasting models are also provided, combining with its specialty. What's more, considering the influence of limited factors, the compositive limited mode is provided. The layout planning of distribution centers of hinge type are put emphasis on, which are main transportation fundamental facilities on logistics condition and playing a special role in it. As the syntheses of transportation junction and distribution center, the scale of distribution centers of hinge type have close relationship to the city. The planning methods are the Weightiness Method and Dynamic Clustering Method.Weightiness Method is, ordering the crunodes through comparing the weightiness of the crunodes. The main idea of Dynamic Clustering Method is as follow: firstly, regard all the crunodes of planning region as clustering analytic swatches; Secondly, classify different kinds of crunodes according to certain criterion, which must have typical traits; Finally, sort the crunodes by type. On this basis, the transportation network on logistics condition is planned and Traffic Capability Lower Limit Model is provided. The cost of logistics system is limited and transportation factors are tied in so as to rationalize the transportation process.The influence of logistics on the planning of transportation supporting facilities is provided simply, the influence is discussed among the Electronic Commence, logistics and transportation system either. Through the overall evaluation method, the planning scheme is ensured feasible and reliable.On the one hand, the influence of logistics on transportation planning is made definite; On the other hand, the theoretic and practical methods of development planning of transportation facilities on logistics condition are provided.
利用系统分析及建立模型的方法,较全面地分析研究了物流对运输需求及运输规划方法的影响。结合物流条件下运输自身的特点,提出物流条件下运输需求的计算方法和物流条件下运输量常用的预测模型,并综合考虑各限制因素对物流条件下运输量的影响,得到综合限制模型。作为物流条件下主要的运输基础设施,重点研究了物流条件下运输系统中有着特殊地位作用的枢纽型物流中心的规划方法,枢纽型物流中心是物流条件下运输系统中兼有运输枢纽和物流服务双重功能的综合体,其规模大小与城市的规模和地位密切相关。枢纽型物流中心的规划方法采用重要度法及动态聚类法。重要度法是通过综合量度区域内各结点相对重要性,来排定结点顺序,从而选择结点。
而将动态聚类法应用于区域物流中心规划的基本思路是:先将规划区域中的所有结点视为聚类分析的样本;再按一定的标准将样本分为不同类,每一类具有典型的特征,最后根据需要按重要程度逐类选择结点。在此基础上进行了运输网络的规划,并给出通行能力下限模型,通过社会物流系统成本最低的限制及运输要素有效配合,实现物流条件下运输合理化。
本文还就物流对运输配套设施规划的影响以及电子商务与物流、运输系统的相互影响进行了简单的探讨。通过分析物流对运输系统效益综合评价的影响,给出物流条件下运输系统效益的综合评价方法,使规划方案具有可行性和可信度。
论文以山西铁路物流系统为例,作了一些应用方面的尝试。
本文研究的理论及实际意义在于一方面适应现代物流的发展,明确了物流对运输规划方法的影响;另一方面,对我国物流条件下运输设施的发展规划提出理论与实际的方法参考。
This paper studies the influence of logistics on transportation planning from the point of the social economy system, including demand forecasting, system planning, supporting facilities and overall evaluation downright, roundly and finely, and putting into practice. The status and action of transportation planning on logistics is affirmed through comparing logistics condition with traditional transportation condition, including transportation mode, system planning, network planning and so on.Using systems analysis and model formation, the influence of logistics on transportation demand and system planning is analyzed and studied; calculation method and common forecasting models are also provided, combining with its specialty. What's more, considering the influence of limited factors, the compositive limited mode is provided. The layout planning of distribution centers of hinge type are put emphasis on, which are main transportation fundamental facilities on logistics condition and playing a special role in it. As the syntheses of transportation junction and distribution center, the scale of distribution centers of hinge type have close relationship to the city. The planning methods are the Weightiness Method and Dynamic Clustering Method.Weightiness Method is, ordering the crunodes through comparing the weightiness of the crunodes. The main idea of Dynamic Clustering Method is as follow: firstly, regard all the crunodes of planning region as clustering analytic swatches; Secondly, classify different kinds of crunodes according to certain criterion, which must have typical traits; Finally, sort the crunodes by type. On this basis, the transportation network on logistics condition is planned and Traffic Capability Lower Limit Model is provided. The cost of logistics system is limited and transportation factors are tied in so as to rationalize the transportation process.The influence of logistics on the planning of transportation supporting facilities is provided simply, the influence is discussed among the Electronic Commence, logistics and transportation system either. Through the overall evaluation method, the planning scheme is ensured feasible and reliable.On the one hand, the influence of logistics on transportation planning is made definite; On the other hand, the theoretic and practical methods of development planning of transportation facilities on logistics condition are provided.
引文
[1] 中华人民共和国国家标准——物流术语(Logistics Terms)》,2001
[2] 蔡继东,蒋明青,朱小锋.《现代物流中交通运输系统结构化分析技术研究》.铁道经济研究,2004第4期.
[3] John Nofsinger.《美国物料搬运和物流业的发展趋势》.《机械制造》,2004年第19期
[4] 秦明森编著.《物流作业优化方法》.北京:中国物资出版社,2003
[5] 彭彦平,王晓敏主编,彭彦平[等]编写.《物流与包装技术》.北京:中国轻工业出版社,2004
[6] 范振宇.《建设物流基地,发展现代物流产业》.《国外公路》,2001年第2期
[7] 刘兴景、戴禾、杨东援.《物流共用信息平台系统分析》.《交通与计算机》,2001年第1期
[8] 肖秋生、徐慰慈编.《城市交通规划》.人民交通出版社,1990年
[9] 宋华、胡左浩.《现代物流与供应链管理》.经济管理出版社,2000年
[10] 欧阳文霞主编.《物流信息技术》.北京:人民交通出版社,2002
[11] Ginzberg, M.J. and E.A.Stohr, Decision Support Systems: Issues and erspectives, in: J.Ginzberg, W. Reitman and E.A.Stohr (eds.), Decision Support Systems, North Holland, 1982
[12] The application of the concept of generalized transport costs to freight, in: Smith, H.G. (ed.), Proceedings of the European Transport Colloquium, European Transport Colloquium Foundation, Delft, Goss(1991)
[13] McGinnis, M.A. A comparative evaluation of freight transportation choice models, Transportation Journal, Winter, 1989
[14] Patton, C.V. and D.S. Sawicki, Basic methods of policy analysis and planning, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1986
[15] Quandt, R.W, W.J.Baumol (1966). The demand for abstract transport modes, Journal of Regional Science 22
[16] 王之泰主编.《现代物流学》.中国物资出版社,1999年
[17] 吴清一主编.《物流学》.中国建材工业出版社,2000年
[18] 王莉主编.《物流学导论》.中国铁道出版社,1999年
[19] 杨兆升主编、何显慈主审.《交通运输系统规划一有关理论与方法》.人民交通出版社,1998年
[20] 高家驹主编.《综合运输概论》.中国铁道出版社,1993年
[21] 丁立信、张铎主编.《国际物流学》.清华大学出版社,2000年
[22] 马士华、陈志祥著《供应链管理》.机械工业出版社,2000年
[23] 葛新权.《一种包含周期变动的回归预测模型》.《预测》,1998年第1期
[24] 李正龙.《季节变动序列的一种简捷预测法》.《预测》,1998年第1期
[25] 朱新生、王永森.《结构比例时间序列的拟合与预测方法》.《预测》,1999年第6期
[26] 刘秉镰主编.《现代经济增长与交通运输产业发展研究》.中国经济出版社,1998年
[27] 杨涛主编、肖秋生主审.《公路网规划》.人民交通出版社,1998年
[28] 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第一十个五年计划的建议》.人民出版社,2000年
[29] 陈贻龙、邵振一主编.《运输经济学》.人民交通出版社,1999年
[30] 《国家二类公路主枢纽布局规划》.交通部规划研究院,2001年
[31] 何公定、袁强.《信息化物流系统引发的运输革命》.《中国公路·交通信息产业》,2001年第11期
[32] 张国伍.《交通运输系统分析》.西南交通大学出版社,1991年
[33] 周商吾.《交通工程》.同济大学出版社,1987年
[34] Vieira. The value of service in freight transportation. Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, Mass. L.F.M., 1992
[35] Freight Planning, The Role of Transportation in Logistics, U. S. Department of Transportation of Federal Highway Administration, 2003
[36] The application of the concept of generalized transport costs to freight, in: Smith, H.G. (ed.), Proceedings of the European Transport Colloquium. European Transport Colloquium Foundation, Delft. Goss (1991)
[37] Added-value logistics service to be offered in developing countries. Report of United Nation Conference on Trade and Development Secretariat, 2003
[38] 杨东援等.《构筑交通枢纽城市现代物流系统的基础环境》.同济大学网站,2001年
[39] 李业编.《预测学》.华南理工大学出版社,1986年
[40] 李守林.《配送中心的功能与设计要点》.《物流技术与应用》,2001年第5期
[41] 郑为中、陆化普、张光杰.《温州市综合交通枢纽客货运输智能化管理系统》.《中国公路·交通信息产业》,2001年第12期
[42] 包健民.《物流现代化》.上海交通大学出版社,1997年
[43] Tavasszy, L.A., Characteristics and capabilities of the Dutch freight transport system models, RAND, Santa Monica, 1994
[44] Taylor, A.D. and J.C. Weaver, Decision support for people who don't make decisions, in: Sol, H.G, J.Vecseny, Environments for supporting decision processes, Elsevier, North-Holland, 1999
[45] Timmermans, H., A. Borgers, Spatial choice models: fundamentals, trends and prospects, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, 1985
[2] 蔡继东,蒋明青,朱小锋.《现代物流中交通运输系统结构化分析技术研究》.铁道经济研究,2004第4期.
[3] John Nofsinger.《美国物料搬运和物流业的发展趋势》.《机械制造》,2004年第19期
[4] 秦明森编著.《物流作业优化方法》.北京:中国物资出版社,2003
[5] 彭彦平,王晓敏主编,彭彦平[等]编写.《物流与包装技术》.北京:中国轻工业出版社,2004
[6] 范振宇.《建设物流基地,发展现代物流产业》.《国外公路》,2001年第2期
[7] 刘兴景、戴禾、杨东援.《物流共用信息平台系统分析》.《交通与计算机》,2001年第1期
[8] 肖秋生、徐慰慈编.《城市交通规划》.人民交通出版社,1990年
[9] 宋华、胡左浩.《现代物流与供应链管理》.经济管理出版社,2000年
[10] 欧阳文霞主编.《物流信息技术》.北京:人民交通出版社,2002
[11] Ginzberg, M.J. and E.A.Stohr, Decision Support Systems: Issues and erspectives, in: J.Ginzberg, W. Reitman and E.A.Stohr (eds.), Decision Support Systems, North Holland, 1982
[12] The application of the concept of generalized transport costs to freight, in: Smith, H.G. (ed.), Proceedings of the European Transport Colloquium, European Transport Colloquium Foundation, Delft, Goss(1991)
[13] McGinnis, M.A. A comparative evaluation of freight transportation choice models, Transportation Journal, Winter, 1989
[14] Patton, C.V. and D.S. Sawicki, Basic methods of policy analysis and planning, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1986
[15] Quandt, R.W, W.J.Baumol (1966). The demand for abstract transport modes, Journal of Regional Science 22
[16] 王之泰主编.《现代物流学》.中国物资出版社,1999年
[17] 吴清一主编.《物流学》.中国建材工业出版社,2000年
[18] 王莉主编.《物流学导论》.中国铁道出版社,1999年
[19] 杨兆升主编、何显慈主审.《交通运输系统规划一有关理论与方法》.人民交通出版社,1998年
[20] 高家驹主编.《综合运输概论》.中国铁道出版社,1993年
[21] 丁立信、张铎主编.《国际物流学》.清华大学出版社,2000年
[22] 马士华、陈志祥著《供应链管理》.机械工业出版社,2000年
[23] 葛新权.《一种包含周期变动的回归预测模型》.《预测》,1998年第1期
[24] 李正龙.《季节变动序列的一种简捷预测法》.《预测》,1998年第1期
[25] 朱新生、王永森.《结构比例时间序列的拟合与预测方法》.《预测》,1999年第6期
[26] 刘秉镰主编.《现代经济增长与交通运输产业发展研究》.中国经济出版社,1998年
[27] 杨涛主编、肖秋生主审.《公路网规划》.人民交通出版社,1998年
[28] 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第一十个五年计划的建议》.人民出版社,2000年
[29] 陈贻龙、邵振一主编.《运输经济学》.人民交通出版社,1999年
[30] 《国家二类公路主枢纽布局规划》.交通部规划研究院,2001年
[31] 何公定、袁强.《信息化物流系统引发的运输革命》.《中国公路·交通信息产业》,2001年第11期
[32] 张国伍.《交通运输系统分析》.西南交通大学出版社,1991年
[33] 周商吾.《交通工程》.同济大学出版社,1987年
[34] Vieira. The value of service in freight transportation. Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, Mass. L.F.M., 1992
[35] Freight Planning, The Role of Transportation in Logistics, U. S. Department of Transportation of Federal Highway Administration, 2003
[36] The application of the concept of generalized transport costs to freight, in: Smith, H.G. (ed.), Proceedings of the European Transport Colloquium. European Transport Colloquium Foundation, Delft. Goss (1991)
[37] Added-value logistics service to be offered in developing countries. Report of United Nation Conference on Trade and Development Secretariat, 2003
[38] 杨东援等.《构筑交通枢纽城市现代物流系统的基础环境》.同济大学网站,2001年
[39] 李业编.《预测学》.华南理工大学出版社,1986年
[40] 李守林.《配送中心的功能与设计要点》.《物流技术与应用》,2001年第5期
[41] 郑为中、陆化普、张光杰.《温州市综合交通枢纽客货运输智能化管理系统》.《中国公路·交通信息产业》,2001年第12期
[42] 包健民.《物流现代化》.上海交通大学出版社,1997年
[43] Tavasszy, L.A., Characteristics and capabilities of the Dutch freight transport system models, RAND, Santa Monica, 1994
[44] Taylor, A.D. and J.C. Weaver, Decision support for people who don't make decisions, in: Sol, H.G, J.Vecseny, Environments for supporting decision processes, Elsevier, North-Holland, 1999
[45] Timmermans, H., A. Borgers, Spatial choice models: fundamentals, trends and prospects, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, 1985