投影寻踪理论在房地产投资决策中的应用研究
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摘要
随着中国当前国民经济持续健康发展、城市化进程加快,房地产业己成为我国经济增长的引擎和支柱产业。而投资决策是进行房地产项目开发的重要环节,它直接影响着项目开发的风险程度及投资收益的大小。房地产投资具有高风险和高不确定性的显著特征。房地产投资决策的成败对企业自身的生存和发展将产生重大影响,因此,提高房地产企业投资决策的科学性十分必要。
投影寻踪理论是一种新兴的、极有价值的高新技术,是统计学、应用数学和计算机技术的交叉学科,属于当今前沿领域,己在诸多领域得到广泛应用并取得了颇有价值的研究成果。本文将投影寻踪理论引入房地产项目投资决策过程中,建立相应的投影寻踪分类模型进行分析和研究,旨在为理论界和实业界提供一套可行的房地产项目投资决策模型和算法。主要工作如下:
(1)系统介绍了房地产投资决策的特点、主要内容及常用方法,并阐述了决策过程中面临的风险特点和类型;
(2)将投影寻踪分类模型应用到房地产投资决策评价中来,并用实例验证其合理性和优越性;
(3)利用投影值散布图来直观地反映出每个投资方案的优劣;
(4)通过实例分析,与其他综合评价方法对比,说明该方法的优越性。
With China's sustained and rapid development of the national economy as well as process of urbanization, real estate has become the engine of China's economic growth and pillar industries. The real estate investment decision-making is an important part of project development, which directly affects the degree of risk in project development, and the size of investment income. Real estate investment has the salient features of high risks and high uncertainty. Success or failure of the real estate investment decision-making on the enterprise's own survival and development will have a significant impact; therefore, it is necessary to improve the real estate enterprises to invest in scientific decision-making.
Projection Pursuit theory is a king of new and extremely valuable high-tech, It is cross-discipline contain the statistics, applied mathematics and computer technology, it also belongs to the area of today's cutting-edge, which has been widely used in many fields and have made a valuable research results. This article will introduce Projection Pursuit principle into real estate investment decision-making process, the establishment of the corresponding projection pursuit classification model analysis and research is designed to provide a theoretical circles and the business community a viable real estate investment decision-making models and algorithms. Main tasks are as follows:
(1) Systematically introduce the characteristics of real estate investment decision-making, main contents and common methods, which describes the types of risks and characteristics faced by decision-making process;
(2) The projection pursuit cluster model is applied to the evaluation of the real estate investment decision-making, and use examples verify its rationality and superiority;
(3) The pros and cons of each investment program will be reflected visually by the Projection value scatter plot;
(4) Through a case study, compared with the other comprehensive evaluation method shows the superiority of this method.
投影寻踪理论是一种新兴的、极有价值的高新技术,是统计学、应用数学和计算机技术的交叉学科,属于当今前沿领域,己在诸多领域得到广泛应用并取得了颇有价值的研究成果。本文将投影寻踪理论引入房地产项目投资决策过程中,建立相应的投影寻踪分类模型进行分析和研究,旨在为理论界和实业界提供一套可行的房地产项目投资决策模型和算法。主要工作如下:
(1)系统介绍了房地产投资决策的特点、主要内容及常用方法,并阐述了决策过程中面临的风险特点和类型;
(2)将投影寻踪分类模型应用到房地产投资决策评价中来,并用实例验证其合理性和优越性;
(3)利用投影值散布图来直观地反映出每个投资方案的优劣;
(4)通过实例分析,与其他综合评价方法对比,说明该方法的优越性。
With China's sustained and rapid development of the national economy as well as process of urbanization, real estate has become the engine of China's economic growth and pillar industries. The real estate investment decision-making is an important part of project development, which directly affects the degree of risk in project development, and the size of investment income. Real estate investment has the salient features of high risks and high uncertainty. Success or failure of the real estate investment decision-making on the enterprise's own survival and development will have a significant impact; therefore, it is necessary to improve the real estate enterprises to invest in scientific decision-making.
Projection Pursuit theory is a king of new and extremely valuable high-tech, It is cross-discipline contain the statistics, applied mathematics and computer technology, it also belongs to the area of today's cutting-edge, which has been widely used in many fields and have made a valuable research results. This article will introduce Projection Pursuit principle into real estate investment decision-making process, the establishment of the corresponding projection pursuit classification model analysis and research is designed to provide a theoretical circles and the business community a viable real estate investment decision-making models and algorithms. Main tasks are as follows:
(1) Systematically introduce the characteristics of real estate investment decision-making, main contents and common methods, which describes the types of risks and characteristics faced by decision-making process;
(2) The projection pursuit cluster model is applied to the evaluation of the real estate investment decision-making, and use examples verify its rationality and superiority;
(3) The pros and cons of each investment program will be reflected visually by the Projection value scatter plot;
(4) Through a case study, compared with the other comprehensive evaluation method shows the superiority of this method.
引文
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[3] JohnR. Canada, John A. White, Capital Investment Decision Analysis For Management and Engineerin, London: Prentice-Hall, Inc, 1980, 247~373
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[9]张晓阳等,城市房地产开发规模的优化决策方法[J],郑州工业大学学报,1999(3):73~75
[10]李颖等,综合运用GAHP法和FCE法进行房地产投资决策,决策和决策支持系统[J],1997(2): 92~96
[11]王红,房地产投资决策方法研究:[硕士学位论文],武汉:武汉大学,2004(2): 22~23
[12]何苗苗,房地产开发项目的投资决策研究:[硕士学位论文],天津:天津大学,2004(1): 44~47
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[18]郑祖国,杨力行等.森林类型遥感分类的投影寻踪细密回归(PPDR)识别模型.99海峡两岸空间资讯与防灾科技研讨会论文集,1999,15(1): 8~11
[19]王春峰,李文华.商业银行信用风险评估:投影寻踪判别分析模型[J].管理工程学报,2000,14(2):43~46
[20]杜一平,王文明,张彦芳.用投影寻踪方法建立准确的定量构性关系模型[J].山东工程学院学报,2002, 16(2):25~27
[21]金菊良,汪淑娟,魏一鸣.动态多指标决策问题的投影寻踪模型[J].中国管理科学,2004, 12(1) :64~67
[22]张玲玲,王宗志,顾敏.房地产风险评价的投影寻踪模型研究[J].水利经济,2005,23(1): 20~22
[23]赵小勇.投影寻踪模型及其在水土资源中的应用.东北农业大学工学硕士论文,2006,14 (2):25~28
[24]巫世峰.房地产可行性研究的评价指标体系研究.国外建材科技,2006(5):83~85
[25]石海均.房地产投资分析[M].大连:大连大连理工大学出版社,1998.40~48
[26]雷生强主编.国际工程风险管理与保险.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1996(3): 17~19
[27]何苗苗.房地产开发项目的投资决策研究,天津大学管理学院,2007,3:8~12
[28]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用[J].西安建筑科技大学学报,2005(1):67~70
[29]杨晓华,沈珍瑶.智能算法及其在资源环境系统建模中的应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2005(1):75~80
[30]付强,赵小勇.投影寻踪原理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2006(1): 47~55
[31] Holland, J H. Genetic algorithms and the optional allocations of trials. SIAM journal of Computing,1973,2:88~105
[32] Holland, J H. Genetic algorithms. Scientific American,1992,(4):44~50
[33]金菊良,丁晶.遗传算法及其在水科学中的应用.成都:四川大学出版社,2000:42~45
[34]付强,梁川.节水灌溉系统建模与优化技术.成都:四川科学技术出版社,2002:129~131
[35]丁晶,金菊良,杨晓华等.基因算法在水科学中的应用.人民长江,1999(8):13~15
[36]周激流.遗传算法理论及其在水问题中的应用研究.博士论文.成都:四川大学,2000:93~95
[37]陈国良,王熙法等.遗传算法及其应用[M],北京:人民邮电出版社,1996(12): 35~41
[38]付强,赵小勇.投影寻踪原理[M],北京:机械工业出版社,2006(1): 47~55
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