面向项目型组织的项目管理决策技术及其支持系统研究
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摘要
作为一种新兴的整合各类专业智力资源和项目管理专业知识的组织结构,项目型组织受到越来越多的关注。然而在当今复杂的商业生态系统中,如何有效、快速做出项目管理决策是项目型组织面临的重要挑战。本文从项目层次、项目管理过程以及管理决策技术三个维度,系统研究了项目型组织项目管理决策问题。针对不同的项目管理过程以及相应的项目层次,提出了有效的管理决策技术或方法。
针对项目选择决策过程中的信息不确定特征,对传统多属性决策方法TOPSIS进行扩展,分别提出了模糊TOPSIS和灰色TOPSIS的项目选择决策方法以帮助决策者进行项目选择与优化。另外,针对项目组织结构选择决策问题,建立了包括项目属性、项目运行与控制、组织环境等三方面内容的评价指标体系,然后将模糊多指标的评价方法与神经网络理论相结合,提出了项目组织结构选择的BP神经网络模型,弥补了目前项目组织结构选择定量化研究的不足。
在项目进度计划方面,本文首先提出了一种具有LR型模糊系数的线性规划模型,并以此为依据解决项目网络计划的时间参数估计和关键路径识别问题。该方法与现有文献方法相比较还有计算简单,操作方便的优点,另外,LR型模糊数是一类应用广泛的模糊数,且大部分模糊数都可以用它来表示,体现了该方法的通用性。随着研究的深入,考虑到项目型组织资源的竞争性环境,将约束集理论应用于项目进度计划管理过程中,并针对项目或者任务完成时间具有外延确定而内涵不确定的特点,在灰色系统思想的基础上,提出了基于灰色关键链的项目进度管理方法。接着将其应用于多项目环境,以缩短项目周期、降低项目成本、优化组织资源配置,从而整体上提高组织项目进度计划水平。
在项目绩效监控与预测方面,本文系统分析了基于挣值技术的项目监控流程、列出了实施挣值技术监控的具体操作程序,并对传统的偏差分析进行了改进。考虑成本EVT在项目进度预测方面的根本缺陷,本文提出的基于时间EVT在整个项目生命周期内都能真实反映项目进度绩效,取得良好的进度预测效果。然后将挣值管理系统的概念应用于项目型组织多项目绩效监测与控制中,并分析了挣值管理成熟度模型。
在以上研究的基础上,提出了项目管理决策支持系统的总体构想,并对项目管理决策支持系统的数据库系统、模型库系统以及人机交互系统进行深入研究。将面向对象的思想应用于项目管理决策模型的抽象处理,实现了模型的复合、扩充和重用。并借助原型开发方法,以中信某网络科技公司为背景研制了一套项目管理决策支持系统的原型系统。
PBOs (project-based organizations) have received increasing attention in recent years as an emerging organizational form to integrate diverse and specialized intellectual resources and expertise. However, how to make effective and agile decisions in a complicated business environment has become a great challenge to PBOs. From the perspective of project levels, project management process and managerial decision technology, this dissertation discusses the general project management issue for PBOs. Some effective technologies or methods for managerial decision are proposed according to different project management process and project levels.
Due to uncertain information during project selection process, this dissertation extends the MCDM TOPSIS to fuzzy TOPSIS and gray TOPSIS to help the decision makers choose optimal project. In addition, an evaluation index system is proposed involving project attributes, project execution and control, organizational environment. Furthermore, this dissertation presents an artificial neural network model for project organization selection through combining fuzzy multiple index and ANN theory. The proposed model tries to enrich the research on project organizational selection problem quantitatively.
In project scheduling, a linear programming method with LR type fuzzy numbers is proposed so as to estimate of activity duration and identify critical path. Compared to existing methods, this one is easy to operate. Additional, LR type fuzzy numbers are well applied and can be used to express most of fuzzy numbers. With in-depth study, this dissertation applies the theory of constraint to project scheduling with the consideration of competitive resource in PBOs. According to Grey system theory, the time of project or task completion can be considered as the object that extension is definite but intension is uncertain, which is coincident with the character of the project management. Then, a Grey Critical Chain scheduling approach is proposed based on the idea of Grey System. Finally, the proposed method is used to solve the resource-constrained multi-project scheduling problem.
In project performance monitoring and forecasting, this dissertation analyses the process, operational procedures in a systematic way and improves the traditional variance analysis. With the limitation of EVT based on cost for scheduling forecasting, this dissertation develops a new method called EVT based on time. The proposed method can reflect believable scheduling performance in whole project life cycle. Furthermore, earned value management system is introduced to monitor and control multiple projects for PBOs. Earned value maturity model is analyzed at the end of this part.
On the basis of the above research, a universal decision support frame for project management is proposed. This dissertation makes an in-depth study on database system, model system and human-computer interaction system. As to compound, extend and reuse models, the ideal of object oriented is used to present models. Finally, a prototype of project management decision support system is developed for a CITIC network company.
针对项目选择决策过程中的信息不确定特征,对传统多属性决策方法TOPSIS进行扩展,分别提出了模糊TOPSIS和灰色TOPSIS的项目选择决策方法以帮助决策者进行项目选择与优化。另外,针对项目组织结构选择决策问题,建立了包括项目属性、项目运行与控制、组织环境等三方面内容的评价指标体系,然后将模糊多指标的评价方法与神经网络理论相结合,提出了项目组织结构选择的BP神经网络模型,弥补了目前项目组织结构选择定量化研究的不足。
在项目进度计划方面,本文首先提出了一种具有LR型模糊系数的线性规划模型,并以此为依据解决项目网络计划的时间参数估计和关键路径识别问题。该方法与现有文献方法相比较还有计算简单,操作方便的优点,另外,LR型模糊数是一类应用广泛的模糊数,且大部分模糊数都可以用它来表示,体现了该方法的通用性。随着研究的深入,考虑到项目型组织资源的竞争性环境,将约束集理论应用于项目进度计划管理过程中,并针对项目或者任务完成时间具有外延确定而内涵不确定的特点,在灰色系统思想的基础上,提出了基于灰色关键链的项目进度管理方法。接着将其应用于多项目环境,以缩短项目周期、降低项目成本、优化组织资源配置,从而整体上提高组织项目进度计划水平。
在项目绩效监控与预测方面,本文系统分析了基于挣值技术的项目监控流程、列出了实施挣值技术监控的具体操作程序,并对传统的偏差分析进行了改进。考虑成本EVT在项目进度预测方面的根本缺陷,本文提出的基于时间EVT在整个项目生命周期内都能真实反映项目进度绩效,取得良好的进度预测效果。然后将挣值管理系统的概念应用于项目型组织多项目绩效监测与控制中,并分析了挣值管理成熟度模型。
在以上研究的基础上,提出了项目管理决策支持系统的总体构想,并对项目管理决策支持系统的数据库系统、模型库系统以及人机交互系统进行深入研究。将面向对象的思想应用于项目管理决策模型的抽象处理,实现了模型的复合、扩充和重用。并借助原型开发方法,以中信某网络科技公司为背景研制了一套项目管理决策支持系统的原型系统。
PBOs (project-based organizations) have received increasing attention in recent years as an emerging organizational form to integrate diverse and specialized intellectual resources and expertise. However, how to make effective and agile decisions in a complicated business environment has become a great challenge to PBOs. From the perspective of project levels, project management process and managerial decision technology, this dissertation discusses the general project management issue for PBOs. Some effective technologies or methods for managerial decision are proposed according to different project management process and project levels.
Due to uncertain information during project selection process, this dissertation extends the MCDM TOPSIS to fuzzy TOPSIS and gray TOPSIS to help the decision makers choose optimal project. In addition, an evaluation index system is proposed involving project attributes, project execution and control, organizational environment. Furthermore, this dissertation presents an artificial neural network model for project organization selection through combining fuzzy multiple index and ANN theory. The proposed model tries to enrich the research on project organizational selection problem quantitatively.
In project scheduling, a linear programming method with LR type fuzzy numbers is proposed so as to estimate of activity duration and identify critical path. Compared to existing methods, this one is easy to operate. Additional, LR type fuzzy numbers are well applied and can be used to express most of fuzzy numbers. With in-depth study, this dissertation applies the theory of constraint to project scheduling with the consideration of competitive resource in PBOs. According to Grey system theory, the time of project or task completion can be considered as the object that extension is definite but intension is uncertain, which is coincident with the character of the project management. Then, a Grey Critical Chain scheduling approach is proposed based on the idea of Grey System. Finally, the proposed method is used to solve the resource-constrained multi-project scheduling problem.
In project performance monitoring and forecasting, this dissertation analyses the process, operational procedures in a systematic way and improves the traditional variance analysis. With the limitation of EVT based on cost for scheduling forecasting, this dissertation develops a new method called EVT based on time. The proposed method can reflect believable scheduling performance in whole project life cycle. Furthermore, earned value management system is introduced to monitor and control multiple projects for PBOs. Earned value maturity model is analyzed at the end of this part.
On the basis of the above research, a universal decision support frame for project management is proposed. This dissertation makes an in-depth study on database system, model system and human-computer interaction system. As to compound, extend and reuse models, the ideal of object oriented is used to present models. Finally, a prototype of project management decision support system is developed for a CITIC network company.
引文
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