金融政策与经济发展相关性研究
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摘要
金融很重要，是现代经济的核心，金融搞好了，一着棋活，全盘皆活。金融能否搞好，取决于金融政策。金融政策关乎金融安全和经济安全，不当的金融政策不仅会阻碍经济发展，甚至会给一国、地区甚至整个世界经济带来灾难。从1929～1933年间的华尔街风暴到1994年墨西哥金融危机，从1997年亚洲金融危机到2007年开始的美国次贷危机或全球金融危机，尽管这些危机呈现出不同的形成机制与演化特点，但都存在一个共同特征，即：金融政策失误。金融政策选择是任何国家、地区都要面临的棘手问题，金融政策如何促进和推动经济发展是理论界亟待解决的重大课题。
本文以经济发展理论、金融发展理论以及金融政策理论为研究基础，运用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法，系统研究了金融政策与经济发展之间的关系问题，探索了以金融促发展的路径和对策。全文共分七章，第一章导论，提出了本文的研究背景，界定了金融政策、经济增长、经济发展等重要概念，设计了研究思路和框架。第二章相关理论，系统介绍了经济发展理论、金融发展理论和金融政策理论，为后续研究提供理论支撑。第三章金融政策与经济发展作用机制，分析了金融政策、金融发展与经济发展之间的传导机制、内生作用机制，并通过数学模型剖析它们之间的内在联系。第四章金融政策与经济发展的国际考察，以美国、日本为例，考察了西方国家不同经济背景下的金融政策及其对经济发展的影响，总结了美日金融政策的经验和教训。第五章金融政策与经济发展相关性实证研究，回顾了我国不同经济发展时期的金融政策及效应；运用相关分析、回归分析、协整检验、VAR模型与Granger因果检验等定量研究了金融政策和经济发展的相关性。第六章我国金融政策的现实选择，运用大量数据资料对我国宏观经济形势作出判断，分析我国经济滞涨的原因，提出我国金融政策的选择方向。第七章为结论与展望。
本研究主要结论为：
1.金融政策取向不同，选择的金融政策工具有所区别，但主要都是通过货币市场与资本市场将储蓄转化为投资，促进经济增长、调整经济结构、提高经济效率、改善居民生活，最终实现经济发展。经济发展，一方面通过收入增加、储蓄增加，为金融市场的发展提供了可能性；另一方面，经济发展要求金融产品不断创新、金融工具不断开发、金融市场不断繁荣，这为金融发展提供了必要性。
2.无论是美国、日本还是我国，历次经济波动或危机都是央行金融政策不当所造成的；能否尽快从危机中走出，也取决于央行的应对措施。本次由美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融海啸，之所以越演越烈，主要是各国应对不当。
3.经济发展不同于经济增长，改革开放以来，我国经济虽然实现了快速增长，无论是GDP还是人均GDP均保持高水平的增长态势，并且不同的国际国内环境都没有对我国经济增长产生较大影响。但站在经济发展角度，还很不乐观。恩格尔系数、基尼系数较高，贫富差距严重，居民的幸福指数较低。经济快速的增长并没有带来经济结构的优化和经济的良性发展，金融政策的运用和选择仍有待商榷。
4.实证结果表明：第一，金融政策与经济发展之间存在显著的相关关系，地区经济发展差异可以从各地区金融发展程度差异进行解释；第二，金融政策与经济发展之间存在单向因果关系，即金融政策引致经济发展，属于供给推动型经济发展，同时金融资产结构对经济发展贡献程度高于金融资产规模；第三，金融政策与经济发展之间存在长期均衡的协整关系，这要求金融发展的规模需要与经济增长规模保持合意的比例。
本研究的主要创新性工作主要有：
1．系统研究了金融政策与内生经济增长之间关系，认为：金融发展与经济增长之间存在复杂关系，两者之间可能存在互为因果关系；金融发展与经济增长互为因果关系并非普遍存在，往往依据不同国家体制、不同经济环境、不同发展阶段等，表现出不同的特征。
2．系统研究了金融发展与经济可持续发展之间关系，认为：金融政策主要通过直接影响与间接影响两种方式影响经济可持续发展；两种影响方式互为补充，实现资源有效配置，达到我国经济短期增长与长期可持续发展的平衡。
3．深入研究了金融政策对经济发展的作用机理、金融发展与经济发展的关联关系、金融政策对经济发展的传导机制等。特别针对我国实际，研究了我国金融政策传导机制问题，具体给出了货币政策传导机制、利率政策传导机制与汇率政策传导机制等研究结果。
4．利用协整分析、Granger因果检验和VAR模型等计量模型与方法，从定量角度分析了金融发展与经济之间的长期均衡关系、互动影响机制、因素贡献大小等，澄清了已有文献的一些模糊认识。
As the core of modern economy, finance is very important. Handling financial affairs well is thekey to success in this sphere. Whether finance runs well or not depends on financial policy. Financialpolicy relates to financial security and economic security as unsuitable financial policy can hamperthe development of economy,or even can bring disasters to the economy of a country, region and thewhole world. From the1929～1933Wall Street Storm to the1994Mexico financial crisis, from Asiafinancial crisis in1997to American subprime mortgage crisis or global financial crisis which beginsat2007, although all these crises present various forming mechanisms and evolutional characteristics,they have a common feature that called financial policy mistakes. The choice of financial policy is ahot potato that any countries or regions can’t avoid it. How financial policy promotes and facilitateseconomic development is a significant issue to be solved urgently for the theoretical domain.
The research in this paper based on the theory of economic development, financial developmentand financial policy, using the method of combining standardized research and empirical research,investigates the relationship between financial policy and economic development systematically, andexplores the path and countermeasure that finance promotes development. The thesis is divided intoseven chapters. The first chapter is Introduction which puts forward the study background,definesthe important conception of financial policy, economic growth and economic development, anddesigns the research thought and framework. Then related theories of the second chapter introducesthe theory of economic development, financial development and financial policy systematically,which provides theoretical support for the following study. The third chapter is something aboutaction mechanism of financial policy and economic development which analyzes the transmissionmechanism and endogenous action mechanism among financial policy, financial development andeconomic development, and dissects their relationship by mathematical models. In chapter four, ainternational review of financial policy and economic development, by taking America and Japanesefor example,investigates financial policy and its influence on economic development of westerncountries under different economic background,and summarizes the experience and lessons offinancial policy of America and Japanese. In chapter five, correlation empirical research of financialpolicy and economic development,reviews the financial policy and effect of our country duringvarious economic development periods and quantitatively studies the correlation of financial policyand economic development by using correlation analysis,regression analysis,cointegration test, VARmodeling and Granger Causality estimation. Then in the chapter six, the real choice of financialpolicy of our country, uses a large number of data to judge the macroscopic economic state of ourcountry and analyze the reasons for our countries’ economic sluggishness, then comes up with thechoice direction of financial policy of our country. The last chapter is conclusion and outlook.
The main conclusions of this research are as follows:
1. Different financial policy orientation, different financial policy tools are selected. However,by combining monetary market and capital market is the main way to tranform savings intoinvestments, with the features of promoting economic growth, adjustment of economicstructure,boosting economic efficiency, improving living standard and eventually achievingeconomic development. Economic development, on the one hand,it provides the probability for thedevelopment of financial market by increasing income and savings, on the other hand, it provides thenecessity for financial development while economic development requires a constant innovation forfinancial products, a constant development for financial tools and a constant prosperity for financialmarkets.
2. The all previous economic fluctuations or crises were caused by the central bank’s inappropriate financial policy whether they were in United Sates, Japan or China. Whether they walkout from the crisis as soon as possible, it also depends on the responses of the central bank. Thisglobal financial tsunami which has been triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is gettingworser, and the main reason is the inappropriate strategies of every country.
3. The economic development is different from economic growth. Since the reform and openingup, China’s economy has achieved rapid growth, and GDP or GDP per capita is to all maintain ahigh level of growth as well as different international and domestic environment are not in a greatimpact on the economic growth in China, but it is far from optimistic standing in the economicdevelopment point of view. The Engle coefficient and the Gini coefficient are relatively high. Thereis a serious gap between rich and poor and residents of lower happiness index. The rapid growth ofeconomy has not brought about the optimization of economic structure and the sound developmentof economy. The application and selection of financial policies remain to be identified.
4. The empirical results show as following. Firstly, there is a significant correlation betweenfinancial policy and economic development. The regional economic development differences can beexplained from the difference of the degree of the regional financial development. Secondly, there isthe one-way casual relation between financial policy and economic development,namely financialpolicy leads to economic development which is belong to supply-driven economic development. Atthe same time the contribution of the financial asset structure to economic development is higherthan the financial asset scale. Thirdly, there is the long-run equilibrium cointegration relationshipbetween financial policy and economic development. It requires that they maintain a desired ratiobetween the needs of the scale of financial development and the scale of economic growth. The maininnovative work of the study is as follows:
1. The relationship has been researched systematically between financial policy and endogenouseconomic growth. There is a complex relationship which may be a mutual causal relationshipbetween financial policy and economic growth. It is not widespread. The causal relationship showsdifferent characteristics, which is often based on the system of different countries, differenteconomic environments, different stages of development and so on.
2. The relationship has been researched systematically between financial development andsustainable economic development. Financial policies affect the economy of sustainabledevelopment primarily by two ways of directing impact and indirecting impact which arecomplement. They relize efficient allocation of resources and achieve China’s economic balance ofshort-term and long-term sustainable development.
3. The mechanism and the transmission mechanism of the financial policy for economicdevelopment and the relationship of them have been researched deeply. Particuarly to our country’sactual situation, the question of China’s financial policy transmission mechanism has been studied.Some study results are concretely given about the transmission mechnism of monetary policy,interest rate policy and exchange rate policy and so on.
4. The long-run equilibrium relationship, the interaction effect mechanism and the extent offactors contribution between financial development and economy have been analyzed from aquantitative point of view by using model and method of the cointegration analysis, Grangercausality test and VAR model ect. And some vague understandings in existing literatures have beenmade clearly.
本文以经济发展理论、金融发展理论以及金融政策理论为研究基础，运用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法，系统研究了金融政策与经济发展之间的关系问题，探索了以金融促发展的路径和对策。全文共分七章，第一章导论，提出了本文的研究背景，界定了金融政策、经济增长、经济发展等重要概念，设计了研究思路和框架。第二章相关理论，系统介绍了经济发展理论、金融发展理论和金融政策理论，为后续研究提供理论支撑。第三章金融政策与经济发展作用机制，分析了金融政策、金融发展与经济发展之间的传导机制、内生作用机制，并通过数学模型剖析它们之间的内在联系。第四章金融政策与经济发展的国际考察，以美国、日本为例，考察了西方国家不同经济背景下的金融政策及其对经济发展的影响，总结了美日金融政策的经验和教训。第五章金融政策与经济发展相关性实证研究，回顾了我国不同经济发展时期的金融政策及效应；运用相关分析、回归分析、协整检验、VAR模型与Granger因果检验等定量研究了金融政策和经济发展的相关性。第六章我国金融政策的现实选择，运用大量数据资料对我国宏观经济形势作出判断，分析我国经济滞涨的原因，提出我国金融政策的选择方向。第七章为结论与展望。
本研究主要结论为：
1.金融政策取向不同，选择的金融政策工具有所区别，但主要都是通过货币市场与资本市场将储蓄转化为投资，促进经济增长、调整经济结构、提高经济效率、改善居民生活，最终实现经济发展。经济发展，一方面通过收入增加、储蓄增加，为金融市场的发展提供了可能性；另一方面，经济发展要求金融产品不断创新、金融工具不断开发、金融市场不断繁荣，这为金融发展提供了必要性。
2.无论是美国、日本还是我国，历次经济波动或危机都是央行金融政策不当所造成的；能否尽快从危机中走出，也取决于央行的应对措施。本次由美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融海啸，之所以越演越烈，主要是各国应对不当。
3.经济发展不同于经济增长，改革开放以来，我国经济虽然实现了快速增长，无论是GDP还是人均GDP均保持高水平的增长态势，并且不同的国际国内环境都没有对我国经济增长产生较大影响。但站在经济发展角度，还很不乐观。恩格尔系数、基尼系数较高，贫富差距严重，居民的幸福指数较低。经济快速的增长并没有带来经济结构的优化和经济的良性发展，金融政策的运用和选择仍有待商榷。
4.实证结果表明：第一，金融政策与经济发展之间存在显著的相关关系，地区经济发展差异可以从各地区金融发展程度差异进行解释；第二，金融政策与经济发展之间存在单向因果关系，即金融政策引致经济发展，属于供给推动型经济发展，同时金融资产结构对经济发展贡献程度高于金融资产规模；第三，金融政策与经济发展之间存在长期均衡的协整关系，这要求金融发展的规模需要与经济增长规模保持合意的比例。
本研究的主要创新性工作主要有：
1．系统研究了金融政策与内生经济增长之间关系，认为：金融发展与经济增长之间存在复杂关系，两者之间可能存在互为因果关系；金融发展与经济增长互为因果关系并非普遍存在，往往依据不同国家体制、不同经济环境、不同发展阶段等，表现出不同的特征。
2．系统研究了金融发展与经济可持续发展之间关系，认为：金融政策主要通过直接影响与间接影响两种方式影响经济可持续发展；两种影响方式互为补充，实现资源有效配置，达到我国经济短期增长与长期可持续发展的平衡。
3．深入研究了金融政策对经济发展的作用机理、金融发展与经济发展的关联关系、金融政策对经济发展的传导机制等。特别针对我国实际，研究了我国金融政策传导机制问题，具体给出了货币政策传导机制、利率政策传导机制与汇率政策传导机制等研究结果。
4．利用协整分析、Granger因果检验和VAR模型等计量模型与方法，从定量角度分析了金融发展与经济之间的长期均衡关系、互动影响机制、因素贡献大小等，澄清了已有文献的一些模糊认识。
As the core of modern economy, finance is very important. Handling financial affairs well is thekey to success in this sphere. Whether finance runs well or not depends on financial policy. Financialpolicy relates to financial security and economic security as unsuitable financial policy can hamperthe development of economy,or even can bring disasters to the economy of a country, region and thewhole world. From the1929～1933Wall Street Storm to the1994Mexico financial crisis, from Asiafinancial crisis in1997to American subprime mortgage crisis or global financial crisis which beginsat2007, although all these crises present various forming mechanisms and evolutional characteristics,they have a common feature that called financial policy mistakes. The choice of financial policy is ahot potato that any countries or regions can’t avoid it. How financial policy promotes and facilitateseconomic development is a significant issue to be solved urgently for the theoretical domain.
The research in this paper based on the theory of economic development, financial developmentand financial policy, using the method of combining standardized research and empirical research,investigates the relationship between financial policy and economic development systematically, andexplores the path and countermeasure that finance promotes development. The thesis is divided intoseven chapters. The first chapter is Introduction which puts forward the study background,definesthe important conception of financial policy, economic growth and economic development, anddesigns the research thought and framework. Then related theories of the second chapter introducesthe theory of economic development, financial development and financial policy systematically,which provides theoretical support for the following study. The third chapter is something aboutaction mechanism of financial policy and economic development which analyzes the transmissionmechanism and endogenous action mechanism among financial policy, financial development andeconomic development, and dissects their relationship by mathematical models. In chapter four, ainternational review of financial policy and economic development, by taking America and Japanesefor example,investigates financial policy and its influence on economic development of westerncountries under different economic background,and summarizes the experience and lessons offinancial policy of America and Japanese. In chapter five, correlation empirical research of financialpolicy and economic development,reviews the financial policy and effect of our country duringvarious economic development periods and quantitatively studies the correlation of financial policyand economic development by using correlation analysis,regression analysis,cointegration test, VARmodeling and Granger Causality estimation. Then in the chapter six, the real choice of financialpolicy of our country, uses a large number of data to judge the macroscopic economic state of ourcountry and analyze the reasons for our countries’ economic sluggishness, then comes up with thechoice direction of financial policy of our country. The last chapter is conclusion and outlook.
The main conclusions of this research are as follows:
1. Different financial policy orientation, different financial policy tools are selected. However,by combining monetary market and capital market is the main way to tranform savings intoinvestments, with the features of promoting economic growth, adjustment of economicstructure,boosting economic efficiency, improving living standard and eventually achievingeconomic development. Economic development, on the one hand,it provides the probability for thedevelopment of financial market by increasing income and savings, on the other hand, it provides thenecessity for financial development while economic development requires a constant innovation forfinancial products, a constant development for financial tools and a constant prosperity for financialmarkets.
2. The all previous economic fluctuations or crises were caused by the central bank’s inappropriate financial policy whether they were in United Sates, Japan or China. Whether they walkout from the crisis as soon as possible, it also depends on the responses of the central bank. Thisglobal financial tsunami which has been triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is gettingworser, and the main reason is the inappropriate strategies of every country.
3. The economic development is different from economic growth. Since the reform and openingup, China’s economy has achieved rapid growth, and GDP or GDP per capita is to all maintain ahigh level of growth as well as different international and domestic environment are not in a greatimpact on the economic growth in China, but it is far from optimistic standing in the economicdevelopment point of view. The Engle coefficient and the Gini coefficient are relatively high. Thereis a serious gap between rich and poor and residents of lower happiness index. The rapid growth ofeconomy has not brought about the optimization of economic structure and the sound developmentof economy. The application and selection of financial policies remain to be identified.
4. The empirical results show as following. Firstly, there is a significant correlation betweenfinancial policy and economic development. The regional economic development differences can beexplained from the difference of the degree of the regional financial development. Secondly, there isthe one-way casual relation between financial policy and economic development,namely financialpolicy leads to economic development which is belong to supply-driven economic development. Atthe same time the contribution of the financial asset structure to economic development is higherthan the financial asset scale. Thirdly, there is the long-run equilibrium cointegration relationshipbetween financial policy and economic development. It requires that they maintain a desired ratiobetween the needs of the scale of financial development and the scale of economic growth. The maininnovative work of the study is as follows:
1. The relationship has been researched systematically between financial policy and endogenouseconomic growth. There is a complex relationship which may be a mutual causal relationshipbetween financial policy and economic growth. It is not widespread. The causal relationship showsdifferent characteristics, which is often based on the system of different countries, differenteconomic environments, different stages of development and so on.
2. The relationship has been researched systematically between financial development andsustainable economic development. Financial policies affect the economy of sustainabledevelopment primarily by two ways of directing impact and indirecting impact which arecomplement. They relize efficient allocation of resources and achieve China’s economic balance ofshort-term and long-term sustainable development.
3. The mechanism and the transmission mechanism of the financial policy for economicdevelopment and the relationship of them have been researched deeply. Particuarly to our country’sactual situation, the question of China’s financial policy transmission mechanism has been studied.Some study results are concretely given about the transmission mechnism of monetary policy,interest rate policy and exchange rate policy and so on.
4. The long-run equilibrium relationship, the interaction effect mechanism and the extent offactors contribution between financial development and economy have been analyzed from aquantitative point of view by using model and method of the cointegration analysis, Grangercausality test and VAR model ect. And some vague understandings in existing literatures have beenmade clearly.
引文
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[50]世行调低全球经济增速预期我国增速9.3%，http://www.people.com.cn/h/2011/0609/c25408-1516481328.html.
[51]IMF大幅下调美国今明两年经济增速［DB/OL］，http://www.cs.com.cn/hw/04_1/201109/t20110921_3064015.html.
[52]人大财经委副主任称我国经济进入滞涨期［DB/OL］，http://news.163.com/10/1213/03/6NOL0BSM00014AED.html.
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[26]巴曙松.中国货币政策有效性的经济学分析[M].北京：经济科学出版社.2000.
[27]崔建军.货币中性非中性:理论述评[J].河南金融管理干部学院学报,2006(3):12-17.
[28]张红伟.我国金融发展与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究[J].财政研究,2008(12):58-60.
[29]吴晶妹.评货币政策的中介目标——货币供应量[J].经济评论,2002(3):78-80.
[30]洪正华.对我国通货紧缩背景下财政政策效应偏低的结构性解释[J].经济评论,2002(5):51-54.
[31]奚君羊,刘卫江.通货膨胀目标制的理论思考--论我国货币政策中介目标的重新界定[J].财贸经济,2002(4):3-8.
[32]卢宝梅.通货膨胀目标制、资产价格膨胀和货币政策反应[J].经济学动态,2008(3):20-27.
[33]欧阳志刚,王世杰.我国货币政策对通货膨胀与产出的非对称反应[J].经济研究,2009(9):27-38.
[34]徐丹丹,孟潇.我国适度宽松货币政策走向分析--基于货币政策对货币供给量、GDP以及物价水平影响的判断[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(4):46-52.
[35]周立,王子明.中国各地区金融发展与经济增长实证分析:1978-2000[J].金融研究.2002(10):1-13.
[36]曹啸,吴军．我国金融发展与经济增长关系的格兰杰检验和特征分析[J]．财贸经济.2002(5):40-43.
[37]冉茂盛,张宗益,冯军.中国金融发展与经济增长的因果关系检验[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版)2002(03):123-129.
[38]陈凡,王丽华.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究（1996-2005）[J].东北财经大学学报.2007(6):8-10.
[39]陈利平.通货膨胀目标制并不能解决我国货币政策低效率问题—一个基于政策时滞和扰动冲击的研究[J].经济学(季刊).2004(4):1115-1126.
[40]Romer，P．Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J]．Journal of Political Economy，1986，V01．94(5)
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[43]RI MacKinnon, ES Shaw. Financial Deepening in Economic Development[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1973.
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[45]白钦先.金融可持续发展研究导论[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2001.
[46]美国政府应对危机的非常规政策［DB/OL］，http://news.xinhuanet.com/theory/2009-07/07/content_11662144.htm.
[47]殷立春,陈治国.金融自由化与金融监管体制改革——以日本为实例的分析[J].现代日本经济.2004(3):6-10.
[48]刘瑞.全球金融危机下的日本经济及金融政策[N].我国社会科学院报.2009-6-18
[49]卢铮.美债问题后遗症贻害无穷，QE3渐行渐近［DB/OL］，http://finance.qq.com/a/20110806/000396.htm.
[50]世行调低全球经济增速预期我国增速9.3%，http://www.people.com.cn/h/2011/0609/c25408-1516481328.html.
[51]IMF大幅下调美国今明两年经济增速［DB/OL］，http://www.cs.com.cn/hw/04_1/201109/t20110921_3064015.html.
[52]人大财经委副主任称我国经济进入滞涨期［DB/OL］，http://news.163.com/10/1213/03/6NOL0BSM00014AED.html.
[53]宋洪生.金融危机的应对与经济发展视角的抉择[J].安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版),2009(5).
[54]我国贫富差距正在逼近社会容忍“红线”［DB/OL］，http://news.sohu.com/20100510/n272019859.shtml.
[55]厉以宁.我国经济第一次遭遇成本推进型通货膨胀［DB/OL］，http://www.china.com.cn/news/2011-01/15/content_21745525.html.
[56]从货币供应量看当前通胀的严重性［DB/OL］，http://finance.ifeng.com/opinion/mssd/20110428/3948230.shtml.
[57]大宗商品价格集体飙升,资源板块将风起云涌［DB/OL］，http://stock.stockstar.com/SS2011041100001280_2.shtml.
[58]夏斌,廖强.货币供应量已不宜作为当前我国货币政策的中介目标.经济研究.2001(8):33-43.
[59]范从来.论货币政策中间目标的选择[J].金融研究,2004(6):123-129.
[60]钱小安.金融开放条件下货币政策与金融监管的分工与协作(上)[J].金融研究,2002,(1):46-54.
[61]刘尚希.财政货币政策没有必要扩张,也不宜紧缩［DB/OL］，http://bond.stockstar.com/JL2010113000001867.shtml.
[62]华民.我国此次通货膨胀的真正原因［DB/OL］，http://finance.sina.com.cn/hy/20101220/17079134832.shtml.
[63]央行副行长.涉农金融机构改革仍需深化［DB/OL］，http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20110801/102210238548.shtml.
[64]张曙光，张旭.国际金融危机下的我国经济运行和政策选择［DB/OL］.china.com.cn,2008-10-24.