岳阳市产业结构优化研究
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摘要
本文主要基于产业结构理论，研究了岳阳市主导产业选择问题。首先，本文依据产业结构变动趋势理论、产业结构调整理论以及产业结构优化理论这一理论发展历史轨迹，对自配第、克拉克以来的产业结构理论进行了较为全面的理论综述，并且简要介绍、评价了国内产业结构问题的研究现状。其次，本文分析了岳阳市产业结构现状以及岳阳市产业结构今后发展所面临的国内、国际环境。通过将岳阳市产业结构现状与全国、湖南省及沿海发达省份(江苏及浙江)、城市(上海及天津)的产业状况进行比较分析，本文指出了岳阳市产业结构现存的主要问题。本文同时也将岳阳市产业现状与处于同一发展水平历史时期的发达国家(美国、日本以及韩国)产业结构进行比较分析，指出岳阳市产业结构的相对差距所在。在此基础上本文综合已有研究，并结合岳阳市实际经济背景构建了一个包括9项指标的主导产业选择模型，并且采用岳阳市经济数据对岳阳市19个行业进行了实际测算。主成份分析法的测算结果表明制造业、零售贸易业等行业具有成为岳阳市主导产业的发展潜力。最后，以模型测算结果与依据，同时结合岳阳市经济总体发展规划，本文对如何选取岳阳市主导产业、岳阳市产业结构优化等问题提出了系列政策建议。
Based on the theory of industrial structure, this dissertation aims at the choosing of leading industry for Yueyang city. To start with, a theoretical generalization on the theories of industrial structure since Petty and Clark is carried out, in line with the historical development of theory of industrial structure changing trends, industrial structure adjustment and industrial structure optimization. A simple summary of domestically current research is also introduced in this dissertation. Secondly, this dissertation analyzes the current situation of Yueyang's industrial structure, and also the whole economic environment domestically and at abroad. By comparing the current situation of Yueyang's industry with that of the whole nation, Hunan province and also coastal developed provinces (Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province) and developed cities (Shanghai and Tianjin), the author points out the main problems existing in Yueyang's current industrial situation. This dissertation also compares Yueyang's curr
ent industrial situation with that of developed countries (the United States, Japan and South Korea) while they are historically in the period of the same development level, so that demonstrate the weakness of Yueyang's industrial structure. Furthermore, combining the existent research outcome and the economic background of Yueyang, this dissertation establishes a model for choosing the leading industry, while contains nine indicators. By using the Factor Analysis Method, the author also evaluates 19 industries of Yueyang city, with the result that some industries, such as manufacturing and retails, have the potential of being leading industries. Finally, based on the calculating results and also the general development plan of Yueyang city, this dissertation presents a series of policy suggestions on how to pick up the leading industries and optimize Yueyang's industrial structure.
Based on the theory of industrial structure, this dissertation aims at the choosing of leading industry for Yueyang city. To start with, a theoretical generalization on the theories of industrial structure since Petty and Clark is carried out, in line with the historical development of theory of industrial structure changing trends, industrial structure adjustment and industrial structure optimization. A simple summary of domestically current research is also introduced in this dissertation. Secondly, this dissertation analyzes the current situation of Yueyang's industrial structure, and also the whole economic environment domestically and at abroad. By comparing the current situation of Yueyang's industry with that of the whole nation, Hunan province and also coastal developed provinces (Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province) and developed cities (Shanghai and Tianjin), the author points out the main problems existing in Yueyang's current industrial situation. This dissertation also compares Yueyang's curr
ent industrial situation with that of developed countries (the United States, Japan and South Korea) while they are historically in the period of the same development level, so that demonstrate the weakness of Yueyang's industrial structure. Furthermore, combining the existent research outcome and the economic background of Yueyang, this dissertation establishes a model for choosing the leading industry, while contains nine indicators. By using the Factor Analysis Method, the author also evaluates 19 industries of Yueyang city, with the result that some industries, such as manufacturing and retails, have the potential of being leading industries. Finally, based on the calculating results and also the general development plan of Yueyang city, this dissertation presents a series of policy suggestions on how to pick up the leading industries and optimize Yueyang's industrial structure.
引文
[1] 杨治．产业经济学导论．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1985
[2] Chenery and Watanabe. International Comparison of the structure of production. Econometrica, 1958,(3): 45-67
[3] Clark J. Toward a concept of workable competition. American Economic Review, 1940, (3):
[4] 杨公仆，夏大慰．产业经济学．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1998
[5] 周振华．产业结构优化论．上海：上海人民出版社，1992
[6] 方甲．产业结构问题研究．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1997
[7] Fogel R. Catching up with economy. American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (1): 102-115
[8] 郭克莎，王延中．中国产业结构变动趋势及政策研究．北京：经济管理出版社，1999
[9] 周振华．现代经济增长中的结构效应．上海：上海三联书店，1995
[10] 郭克莎．改革中的经济增长与结构变动．上海：上海三联书店，1996
[11] 潘强恩，马传景．经济结构与经济增长．北京：经济科学出版社，1998
[12] 刘伟．工业化进程中的产业结构研究．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1995
[13] 周振华．结构调整．上海：上海人民出版社，1999
[14] 江小涓．世纪之交的工业结构升级．上海：上海远东出版社，1996
[15] 黄继忠．对产业结构优化理论中一个新命题的论证．经济管理·新管理，2002，(4)：12-16
[16] Harrison B. Industrial districts: old wine in new bottles. Regional Studies, 26(5):56-62
[17] Audretsch and Feldman. R&D spillovers,the geography of innovation and production. American Economic Review, 1986, (3): 45-67
[18] Hill Edwards. A methodology for identifying the drives of industrial clusters. Economic Development Quarterly, 1998,14 (1): 23-28
[19] Keller Warner. Absorptive Capacity: On the Creation and Acquisition of Technology in Development. Journal of Development Economics, 1996, (49): 199-227
[20] 胡积健．对我国工业结构调整的思考．山东经济，1997，(4)：6-9
[21] 徐崇恩．主导产业的选择及城市发展战略．财经问题研究，1991，(5)：12-18
[22] 陈捷．论区域主导产业的选择．财经科学，1993，(1)：8—11
[23] Lee King. Modeling economic growth in the UK: An econometric case for disaggregated sectoral analysis. Economic Modelling, 1995, (6): 256-267
[24] 贺灿飞等．区域主导产业的选择．开发研究，1994，(4)：8—15
[25] 于立东．主导产业形成优势．中外科技政策与管理，1995，(11)：9—14
[26] 王后虎．就业弹性与主导产业的选择．中国工业经济，1992，(7)：12—14
[27] 张光华．论产业结构演进的一般规律．经济纵横，1998，(2)：34—36
[28] 钟阳胜．正确选择和建设主导产业的若干问题．管理世界，1996，(4)：23—25
[29] 葛乃旭．2000年我国主导产业的选择．吉林大学社会科学学报，1996，(6)：1—5
[30] 赵新良，李向平．我国工业结构现状及调整．中国工业经济，1996，(1)：5—8
[31] 刘键初，谢有才．主导产业研究．宁波大学学报，1997，(1)：7—9
[32] Porter Michael. Clusters and the new economy of competition. Harvard Business Review, 1994, (3): 341-461
[33] Cohen, Williams and Levinthal. Innovation and learning: The two faces of R&D. Economic Journal, 1989, (9) :569-596
[34] 沈常娥．区域经济发展中的主导产业选择．兰州商学院学报，1996，(12)：7—9
[35] 胡树华．主导产业选择模型及应用．系统工程理论与实践，1992，(3)：11—16
[36] Porter Micheal. On competition. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998
[37] 方创琳．工业主导产业优选的指标体系与发展研究．西北师范大学学报，1994，(4)：7—9
[38] 朱欣民．论主导产业选择标准．区域经济研究，1997，(3)：15—19
[39] 王艳．科技进步同经济结构调整的相互影响．科技进步与对策，1997，(6)：15—19
[40] 隋映辉．21世纪中国主导产业科技发展战略．东岳论丛，1997，(4)：25—29
[41] Kaneko York. An empirical study on non-survey forecasting of the input coefficient matrix in a Leontief model. Economic Modelling, 1998, (1): 132-145
[42] 王国梁，李旭红论区域开发主导产业选择．科技情报开发经济，1997，(4)：59—61
[43] Barro Robert and Sala-i-Martin. Economic Growth. New York: McGraw Hill, 1995
[44] Blomstrom, Marceline and Kokko. Multinational Corporations and Spillovers. Journal of Economic Surveys, 1998, (12): 247-248
[45] 张福宝．主成份分析在确定主导产业时的应用．财经问题研究，1990，(8)：12—14
[46] 姜国升．沿海发达城市产业结构调整的战略定位与基本取向．财经问题研究，1997，(7)：25-26
[47] Kokko Agars. Technology, Market Characteristics, and Spillovers. Journal of Development Economics, 1994(43): 279-293
[48] 何景明．主导产业选择基准的探讨．西南师范大学学报，1998，(1)：18-2l
[49] 肖林，曹金喜．面向21世纪的上海产业发展趋势和关键技术．上海综合经济，1998，(1)：2-9
[2] Chenery and Watanabe. International Comparison of the structure of production. Econometrica, 1958,(3): 45-67
[3] Clark J. Toward a concept of workable competition. American Economic Review, 1940, (3):
[4] 杨公仆，夏大慰．产业经济学．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1998
[5] 周振华．产业结构优化论．上海：上海人民出版社，1992
[6] 方甲．产业结构问题研究．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1997
[7] Fogel R. Catching up with economy. American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (1): 102-115
[8] 郭克莎，王延中．中国产业结构变动趋势及政策研究．北京：经济管理出版社，1999
[9] 周振华．现代经济增长中的结构效应．上海：上海三联书店，1995
[10] 郭克莎．改革中的经济增长与结构变动．上海：上海三联书店，1996
[11] 潘强恩，马传景．经济结构与经济增长．北京：经济科学出版社，1998
[12] 刘伟．工业化进程中的产业结构研究．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1995
[13] 周振华．结构调整．上海：上海人民出版社，1999
[14] 江小涓．世纪之交的工业结构升级．上海：上海远东出版社，1996
[15] 黄继忠．对产业结构优化理论中一个新命题的论证．经济管理·新管理，2002，(4)：12-16
[16] Harrison B. Industrial districts: old wine in new bottles. Regional Studies, 26(5):56-62
[17] Audretsch and Feldman. R&D spillovers,the geography of innovation and production. American Economic Review, 1986, (3): 45-67
[18] Hill Edwards. A methodology for identifying the drives of industrial clusters. Economic Development Quarterly, 1998,14 (1): 23-28
[19] Keller Warner. Absorptive Capacity: On the Creation and Acquisition of Technology in Development. Journal of Development Economics, 1996, (49): 199-227
[20] 胡积健．对我国工业结构调整的思考．山东经济，1997，(4)：6-9
[21] 徐崇恩．主导产业的选择及城市发展战略．财经问题研究，1991，(5)：12-18
[22] 陈捷．论区域主导产业的选择．财经科学，1993，(1)：8—11
[23] Lee King. Modeling economic growth in the UK: An econometric case for disaggregated sectoral analysis. Economic Modelling, 1995, (6): 256-267
[24] 贺灿飞等．区域主导产业的选择．开发研究，1994，(4)：8—15
[25] 于立东．主导产业形成优势．中外科技政策与管理，1995，(11)：9—14
[26] 王后虎．就业弹性与主导产业的选择．中国工业经济，1992，(7)：12—14
[27] 张光华．论产业结构演进的一般规律．经济纵横，1998，(2)：34—36
[28] 钟阳胜．正确选择和建设主导产业的若干问题．管理世界，1996，(4)：23—25
[29] 葛乃旭．2000年我国主导产业的选择．吉林大学社会科学学报，1996，(6)：1—5
[30] 赵新良，李向平．我国工业结构现状及调整．中国工业经济，1996，(1)：5—8
[31] 刘键初，谢有才．主导产业研究．宁波大学学报，1997，(1)：7—9
[32] Porter Michael. Clusters and the new economy of competition. Harvard Business Review, 1994, (3): 341-461
[33] Cohen, Williams and Levinthal. Innovation and learning: The two faces of R&D. Economic Journal, 1989, (9) :569-596
[34] 沈常娥．区域经济发展中的主导产业选择．兰州商学院学报，1996，(12)：7—9
[35] 胡树华．主导产业选择模型及应用．系统工程理论与实践，1992，(3)：11—16
[36] Porter Micheal. On competition. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998
[37] 方创琳．工业主导产业优选的指标体系与发展研究．西北师范大学学报，1994，(4)：7—9
[38] 朱欣民．论主导产业选择标准．区域经济研究，1997，(3)：15—19
[39] 王艳．科技进步同经济结构调整的相互影响．科技进步与对策，1997，(6)：15—19
[40] 隋映辉．21世纪中国主导产业科技发展战略．东岳论丛，1997，(4)：25—29
[41] Kaneko York. An empirical study on non-survey forecasting of the input coefficient matrix in a Leontief model. Economic Modelling, 1998, (1): 132-145
[42] 王国梁，李旭红论区域开发主导产业选择．科技情报开发经济，1997，(4)：59—61
[43] Barro Robert and Sala-i-Martin. Economic Growth. New York: McGraw Hill, 1995
[44] Blomstrom, Marceline and Kokko. Multinational Corporations and Spillovers. Journal of Economic Surveys, 1998, (12): 247-248
[45] 张福宝．主成份分析在确定主导产业时的应用．财经问题研究，1990，(8)：12—14
[46] 姜国升．沿海发达城市产业结构调整的战略定位与基本取向．财经问题研究，1997，(7)：25-26
[47] Kokko Agars. Technology, Market Characteristics, and Spillovers. Journal of Development Economics, 1994(43): 279-293
[48] 何景明．主导产业选择基准的探讨．西南师范大学学报，1998，(1)：18-2l
[49] 肖林，曹金喜．面向21世纪的上海产业发展趋势和关键技术．上海综合经济，1998，(1)：2-9