我国农业发展的空间结构演化及其影响因素研究
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摘要
农业的合理空间布局是我国农业结构战略性调整的重要内容。改革开放以来,我国先后四次对农业结构进行了调整,其中1998年中央明确提出将区域结构优化作为农业结构战略性调整的重要内容之一,通过农业区域专业化发展,优化农业资源配置,实现我国由农业大国向强国转变的战略目标。经过十余年的实践,我国农业的区域结构变化情况究竟如何?我国农业区域结构优化的重点政策选择和着力点应该是什么?上述两个现实问题激发了本人对我国农业的空间结构演变规律进行探索的兴趣和冲动。本研究针对“我国农业的空间结构演化的基本规律”这一核心命题,紧紧围绕以下三个具体问题开展：①我国农业空间结构演变趋势是什么?②影响农业空间结构演变的主要因素有哪些?③这些因素又是如何影响农业空间结构演变的?
本研究利用“重量”、“地理重心”和“差异系数”等概念的内涵,在界定“农业空间结构”等相关概念的基础上,提出用“区域重量”、“区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”作为描述农业空间结构的三个理论参数。构建评判农业空间结构演变类型的指标体系,建立了识别农业空间结构参数变化程度的标准和依据,并以此实证分析了我国不同区域层次、不同产业部门和部分主要农产品大类农业空间结构的演变趋势。运用空间计量模型对我国农业的空间结构演变的影响因素进行了实证考察,根据实证结果对我国农业的空间结构演化机理进行了理论剖析,并提出我国农业的空间结构优化调整的原则性政策建议。
一、研究内容与方法
1.回顾我国农业发展历程,提出本研究所用的阶段划分和区域层次选择；运用“农业区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”等工具,基于2009年的农业经济统计数据对全国农业、农业四部门和主要农产品的空间结构状态进行了统计分析,从现实状态评判我国农业发展的区域差异性是否存在。
2.运用“区域重量”、“区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”等工具,首先构建了空间结构变化的评判参数和标准,对1978-1984年、1984-1992年、1992-1998年、1999-2002年、2002-2009年五个时段的全国农业、农业四部门、代表性农产品空间结构和七大区域农业空间结构的演变过程和趋势进行了实证评判分析。
3.在对农业发展的可能的影响因素定性分析的基础上,构建出空间面板计量模型,采用最大似然法(ML),使用Matlab2009软件按两阶段(1978-1992年、1992-2008年)和全时段(1978-2008年)进行空间计量分析,找出影响我国农业发展的主要因素；通过对正影响因素与农业的空间结构变化对比分析其一致性,找出影响农业空间结构变化的关键因素。
4.根据前文的研究结果,就相关影响因素对我国农业空间结构演化作用的路径和机理进行了理论剖析。
二、研究的主要结论
(一)我国农业在空间上存在差异性
(1)通过按全国县级区域农业及四部门人均产值系数进行空间聚类判断,认为我国农业区域可分为东北、华北、华东、华中、华南、西南、西北七个大区域,其中种植业、林业、牧业在七大区域都有优势区县分布,渔业主要分布在东北、华北、华东、华中和华南等五个中心区域。
(2)从全国、四大区域、七大区域、各省区不同区域层次内农业四部门的区域重心相对其农业区域重心的偏离程度看,各区域层次中均存有偏离,总体上林业和渔业的区域重心偏离程度比较大。
(3)从区域匀质系数分析,除东北地区的牧业区域差异弱外,全国、四大区域、七大区域、各省区等不同区域层次内农业及其四部门的区域间差异均在中等强度以上,其中全国林业和渔业的区域差异程度最高。
(二)我国农业空间结构的演变趋势与特征
(1)我国农业空间结构变化趋势为“空间重量持续增加,区域重心多向曲折移动、总体移向西北,省区间的差异有所变化但不很明显”
(2)全国农业空间结构的演变具有历史阶段差异性。
①“区域重量”持续增加。全国农业区域重量变化均为“增重型”,各时期的增重幅度有差异,其中变化较大的时期按大小顺序分别为1992-1998年、1978-1984年、2002-2009年、1984-1992年。
②全国农业区域重心呈多向移动,总体向西北移动；不同时期农业区域重心的移动距离差异较大,其中移动距离较大的时期按大小顺序分别为2002-2009年、1984-1992年、1992-1998年(后两个时期移动方向相反)
③全国农业匀质系数均介于0.1和1之间,属于中等强度的区域差异,全国的区域匀质系数变化不明显,其中变化较大的时期按大小顺序分别为1992-1998年(增大)、2002-2009年(减小)、1978-1984年(增大)
④根据对不同历史阶段比较分析,我国农业空间结构在每个时期都有变化,其中变化最大的时期是1978-1984年、1992-1998年、2002-2009年三个时期,也与我国农业经营制度改革、经济体制改革和农业财政政策变化较大的时期相对应。本人认为农业结构调整政策对农业空间结构变化有影响,经济体制、农业经营制度和农业财政政策对空间结构变化都有较大影响。
(3)我国农业空间结构演变具有区域层次差异性
各大区域的农业空间结构变化过程中,空间重量均为持续增重,但增长速度各不相同；七大区域的农业区域重心移动除了华中、西北部地区有持续稳定的方向外,其他区域的移动方向不稳定；次区域差异化变动趋势各不相同。用全国与七大区域的农业空间结构变化趋势相比较,差异明显。所以认为我国农业空间结构演变是多中心的。
(4)我国农业空间结构演变具有产业层级差异性
农业四部门之间、部分农产品之间的空间结构演变趋势各不相同,差异较大。说明我国农业的区域结构变化主要表现在部门和产品层次。
(三)我国农业空间结构演变的影响因素.
(1)我国农业发展的关键因素分析
①不同时间段划分得出的结果相似,每个因素不同时间对我国农业发展的作用方向相同,只是作用大小有差异。
②农林牧渔业从业人员数量、耕地面积、非农产值比重、人均GDP、公路密度等5个因素对我国农业经济发展为明显负作用；人口总数、农业机械总动力、财政支农经费、农业劳动者人均农业总产值等4个因素对我国农业发展为明显正作用,是影响我国农业发展的主要因素。
③全国农业及各次区域的农业发展受到人口总数、农业机械总动力、财政支农经费、农业劳动者人均农业总产值等4个关键因素的影响。
(2)通过全国4个关键因素与全国农业产值的区域重量、区域重心、区域匀质性进行比较分析,具有相对的一致性,其中财政支农具有高度的一致性。说明是这四个因素的区域差异性也是影响全国农业空间结构的关键因素,只是影响程度和重点不同。
(四)农业的空间结构演化机理
(1)本研究认为我国空间结构演化是多因素共同作用的结果,是各次区域农业发展的空间表现效果,由于各个次区域农业的差异化发展,最终导致大区域农业空间结构的变化。
(2)众多影响因素是通过两条路径发生作用：一是影响农业经营者的决策行为；二是影响农业生产力水平。
(五)总体结论和政策建议
基于理论分析和实证考察,本研究的总体结论有：(1)我国的农业空间结构变化是多中心的,中心区域可大致分为华东、东北、华北、华中、西北、华南、西南七个区域；(2)我国农业区域化发展不在总量层面,是发生在农业部门甚至农业产品层面,不同产业层次有不同的演变趋势,种植业、林业、牧业的区域差异程度呈扩大趋势,但程度不同,而渔业的区域差异化在缩小。其中种植业的代表产品粮食和牧业相伴集聚,在空间上表现为同样的区域分异趋势,林业和渔业则表现为独立的演化趋势,主要农产品生产的空间结构变化程度最为明显；(3)影响我国农业空间结构的变化的主要因素包括体制和制度因素、科技因素、政策因素、人口因素和农业生产力水平。我国农业发展在相邻区域间存在相互影响。(4)影响因素主要是通过影响农业生产经营者决策行为和农业生产力水平两个层面作用于次区域农业发展,区域间相互影响,最终导致全国农业空间结构的变化。
基于全文研究分析,结合相关文献,提出了在市场经济条件下,促进我国农业空间结构优化调整的政策建议。(1)农业空间结构调整优化应坚持如下五条原则：一是因地制宜原则：二是市场导向原则；三是区域差别原则；四是安全战略原则；五是重抓关键原则。(2)本人认为农业区域结构优化调整的政策着力点有四：一是制定农业产业发展优势农产品区域布局规划,区域差别化政策的制定提供依据；二是重视农业科技的作用,提高农业生产力水平；三是引导农业经营者和生产者的经营决策行为,实现农业次产业的区域差别化发展；四是营造有利的信息、市场、交通、非农产业等农业发展外部环境,保证农业生产与市场需求的有效对接,化解农业区域化发展过程中产生的农业劳动力过剩、区域产业空心化等矛盾和问题。(3)从支持农业产业发展、改善农业发展外部环境两个方面提出了几点具体建议。
三、论文主要创新点
本研究在如下四方面的有所创新：
一是有关概念创新。本文借用区域经济学中区域空间结构理论的方法,将传统的农业生产布局问题转化为空间结构问题,首次尝试着对“农业空间结构”的概念作了界定。借用了“重量”、“地理重心”和“差异系数”概念,提出了“农业区域重量”“农业区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”概念。
二是研究视角创新。运用区域经济学的空间结构理论,以农业及其各子产业为对象,将“我国农业”视为一个“空间实体”,从整体化的视角研究其区域分布状态及状态演化规律,从研究视角上有所创新。
三是研究方法有新意。本研究应用系统分析方法,将农业层级与区域层次进行复合,构建了农业空间结构的层次体系,利用区域重量、区域地理重心和区域匀质系数分析农业的空间结构演化有一定新意。应用空间面板计量分析方法进行因素分析比传统的一般面板计量分析更具科学性。
四是通过研究得出了一些有用的结论。我国农业空间结构演化具有历史阶段性、区域层次性和产业层级性；众多因素中农业政策对农业发展及其区域结构的变化影响大；提出了相应的原则性政策建议。
Reasonable spatial distribution of agriculture is an important part in the strategic restr ucturing of China's agriculture. Since the reform and opening up, China has adjusted the agricultural structure for four times, among which in1998, the central government put up clearly that the regional structural optimization as an important part of Strategic adjustment of agricultural structure and through the professional development of the agricultural region and optimizing agricultural resource allocation to achieve strategic goals that the shift of China from a major agricultural country to a powerful one, After more than10years of practice, what is the change of spatial structure of agriculture in China? What are the key policy choices and focuses of the agricultural regional restructuring?
Those questions caused my interest and inspired me research on the rules of evolution of the spatial structure of agriculture in China. Focusing on the research questions of "the basic rules of spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China", there are three sub questions:(1) What is the trend of spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China?(2) What are the main factors of spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China?(3) How do these factors affect the spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China?
Part1Goals and Way of the Research
There are three objectives in this study. The first, grasp the rules and trends of evolution of China's agricultural spatial structure. The seconds, reveal the decisive factors of influence on the evolution of China's agricultural spatial structure. The third, clarify the evolution rules of spatial structure of Chinese Agriculture.
The way of research of this paper is:First, using the connotation of the concepts of" weight", the"geographical center of gravity" and the "difference factor", and on the basis of defined spatial structure of the agriculture and other related concepts, the paper proposes to use the concepts of the "regional weight","regional center of gravity "and "regional coefficient of uniformity" as a framework of theoretical analysis of the three theoretical parameters to describe the structure of agricultural space. Then, based on the theoretic analysis framework of agricultural spatial structure, it builds the index system of evaluation of agricultural spatial structure and the criteria of identifying the degree of change of the structural parameters of agricultural spatial structure. Based on them, it makes empirical analysis of the evolution trends of different level of China's different regions,different industrial sectors and some of the major agricultural products. Finally, it uses spatial models of the spatial structure of China's agricultural evolution to make the empirical investigation, and makes a theoretical analysis based on the empirical result and makes some suggestions on the principle policy of optimizing adjustment of China's agricultural structure.
Part2the Content and Basic Conclusions
(A) The statistical analysis of the spatial structure of China's agricultural present situation and characteristics with the use of the regional center of gravity of the agriculture and regional uniform coefficient and other tools, and the statistical quantitati ve analysis based on the2009agricultural economic statistics on agriculture in the four departments and the spatial structure of the major agricultural state, we obtains the following basic conclusions:
(1) Through the coefficient clustering analysis of the county-level regional agricultur e and the four departments GDP per capita, we know that the agricultural areas in China can be divided into seven major areas of northeast, north, east, central, south, southwest, northwest, in which the farming,forestry,animal husbandry has an advantage in the seven regional distribution of counties, and the fishery is mainly distributed in northeast ern, northern, eastern,central and southern of China as five main regions.
(2) From the extent of the regional center of gravity relative to the center of gravity of the agricultural areas regional levels within the agricultural sector of the whole country, four regions, seven regions, all the provinces, there is deviation from the various regional levels. There is a deviation from the overall forestry and the focus o f the fisheries area the level of deviation is relatively large.
(3) Based on the regional analysis of uniformity coefficients, besides the weakness of the regional differences in Northeast Livestock,the inter-regional difference of agriculture and its four departments within the hierarchy of different regions of the whole country, four regions, seven regions, all the provinces is in the middle strength, of which the regional differences is in the highest degree in the national forestry and fisheries. The overall conclusionis that the development of China's agricultural regionalization is multi-centeredand the regional differences in the four departments of agriculture are quite different. In other words, it is clear that the regional structure is quite different.
(B) The empirical analysis of the evolution of the spatial structure of China's agricultural trends.
Using the "area weight", the "regional center of gravity" and "regional uniform coefficient" as index, the paper firstly builds the spatial structure of the evaluation para meters and criteria. Then, it analyzes and evaluates empirically towards the five periods of national agriculture,agricultural sectors, the representatively spatial structure of agricultural products and the evolution process and trends of the spatial structures of the seven regional agriculture in1978-1984,1984-1992,1992-1998,1999-2003,2003-2009. It draws the following basic conclusions.
(1) Trend of China's agricultural spatial structure is that"the space weight continues to increase, the regional center of gravity twists and moves to multiple directors, the overall movement is to the northwest and there are the differences of provincial changes but they are not very obvious.
(2) Differences of historical stage of national agricultural spatial structure evolution
①From the analysis of changes in the area weight, except the only decreasing change of area weight in national food regions in1998-2002,the national food regional changes of area weight of the various stages of the country, the industry level, regional level are increasing. There are differences of the increasing weight, among which the ranks of changes are the periods of1992-1998,1978-1984,2002-2009,1984-1992.
②The regional center of gravity of national agriculture moves in multi-directions and the overall move is to the northwest. Weight shift of seven regional agricultural regions have not a steady direction in addition to the central and northwest regions. There is a big difference of distance of moving among different agricultural areas. The rank of the moving distance is2002-2009,1984-1992,1992-1998(the latter two periods move in the opposite directions).
③From the analysis of changes in agriculture uniformity coefficient,the uniformity coefficient of the whole country and seven regional agriculture is between0.1and1, which is a moderate-intensity regional difference.The country's regional uniform coefficient did not change significantly, among which the ranks of move are the period1992-1998(increase),2002-2009(decrease),1978-1984(increase).
Based on the comparative analysis of different historical periods, the spatial structure of China's agriculture has changed in each period. The greatest change is in the3period of years:1978-1984,1992-1998,2002-2009. But it also corresponds with the huge differences of China's agricultural reform, economic reform and agricultural fiscal policy. I think that the agriculture spatial structural changes affect the agricultural structural adjustment and the economic system, the system of agricultural operations and agricultural fiscal policy have a great impact on spatial structure.
(3) Differences of the regional level of agricultural spatial structure evolution.
Major regions of the agricultural process of spatial structure, spatial weight are continuing to gain weight, but the growth rate varies; sub-regional changes in the differentiation are not the same. Comparing the spatial structure of national and seven regional agricultural trends, the difference is obvious. Therefore, the evolution of China's agricultural spatial structure is multi-centered.
(4) Differences of industry-level of agricultural spatial structure evolution
Through the comparative analysis of evolution trend of structural changes in national agricultural four departments of agriculture and the evolution trend of spatial structure of some agricultural products,the evolutionary trend of China's agricultural spatial structure is mainly affected by the spatial structure evolution of farming and animal husbandry.
(C) The empirical investigation of the factors of influence of spatial structure of China's agricultural evolution.
(1)The analysis of key factors in China's agricultural development on the basis of qualitative analysis of possible influencing factors on the agricultural developm ent, the paper builds a spatial panel econometric model,adopts the maximum likelihood (ML) and Matlab2009software in two stages (1978-1992,1992-2008) and full period (1978-2008) to analyze the spatial econometric. The results show that.
a. Results of different time division are similar. Each factor plays the same direction of role in China's agricultural development, but the affect of role are different.
b.Five factors of the number of employees of the forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, arable land, the proportion of non-agricultural output value,the per capita GDP, and road density have significantly negative effect on the development of China's agricultural economy;while the4factors of the total population, the total power of agricultural machinery, funding for financial support for agriculture, agricultural labor p er total agricultural output value have obviously positive effect of China's agricultural development.
c.The development of national agricultural and sub-regional agricultural development are affected by4key factors including the total population, the total power of agricultural machinery, funding for financial support for agriculture, and agricultural laborers per capita agricultural output value.
(2) Through the comparative analysis of the4key factors of regional center of gravity, regional differences and regional focus of the national agricultural output, the result is consistent. It shows that the4factors are key factors, which affect the reginal center of gravity and regional differences of national agricultural spatial structure.
(D) The theoretical analysis of the evolution mechanism of the spatial structure of China's agriculture.
According to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper analyze theoretically on the related factors on the path and mechanism of agricultural spatial structure evolution.
(1)I think the evolution of spatial structure in China is the result of many factors workingtogetherand is the performance effects of sub-regional agricultural development space.It will eventually lead to changes in the structure of regional agricultural space due to the various sub-regional differences in agriculture development.
(2) A number of influencing factors occurs through two paths:First is the impact of the agricultural operator's decision-making behavior. The second is the effect the level of agricultural productivity.
(3) The paper describes in details on the different roles of the path of influencing factors of influcing the mechanism of agricultural spatial structure.
Part3the Overall Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical investigation, the overall conclusions of this study are:
(1) China's agricultural spatial structure is multi-centered. The center area can be divided into seven regions of the East, Northeast, North China, Central China, Northwest, South, Southwest;
(2) The development of China's agricultural regionalization is not the total level but the agricultural sector and even the level of agricultural products. There are different trends of evaluation on the different levels of industries. The degree of differences of fanning, forestry, and animal husbandry expands. But the degree of differences of fisheries shrinks. Food, on behalf of the product for farming, and animal husbandry gather with the same regional differentiation trend in space. Forestry and fisheries show independent evolutionary trend. The degree of change of the spatial structure of agricultural production is the most obvious;
(3)The main factors affecting the spatial changes in the structure of China's agricultural system and institutional factors are technological factors, policy factors, demographic factors, and agricultural productivity levels. China's agricultural development is interactively affected between the adjacent regions.(4) The main influencing factors affect the agricultural production business on decision-making behavior and the level of agricultural productivity at two levels. They play the role of agricultural development in the sub-regional, inter-regional interaction. It eventually leads to changes in the structure of national agricultural space.
Based on the full-text research and analysis, related literature, it proposes recommendations of the optimal adjustment policy to promote the agricultural spatial structure under the conditions of market economy.(1) Structural adjustment of agricultural space optimization should adhere to the following five principles:local conditions principles; market-oriented principles;the principle of regional differences; the principle of security strategy; focus on the key principles.(2) I think the focus of agricultural areas on structure adjustment of policy are a. to make regional distribution planning of the development of agricultural industry development of competitive agricultural products and provide the basis for policy formulation of regional differentiation;b. emphasis on the role of agricultural science and technology and to improve agricultural productivity; c. to guide agricultural operators and producers' decision-making behavior to realize the development of the regional differentiation of agricultural industry; d. to create a favorable external environment of the agricultural development of the information, market, transport, and non-agricultural industries to ensure that agricultural production and market demand effectively dock and to resolve the contradictions and problems of the surplus of agricultural labor, regional industrial hollowing in the process of agricultural regional development.(3) Put forward some concrete proposals to improve two aspects of the agricultural development of the external environment from the support of agricultural industry development.
本研究利用“重量”、“地理重心”和“差异系数”等概念的内涵,在界定“农业空间结构”等相关概念的基础上,提出用“区域重量”、“区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”作为描述农业空间结构的三个理论参数。构建评判农业空间结构演变类型的指标体系,建立了识别农业空间结构参数变化程度的标准和依据,并以此实证分析了我国不同区域层次、不同产业部门和部分主要农产品大类农业空间结构的演变趋势。运用空间计量模型对我国农业的空间结构演变的影响因素进行了实证考察,根据实证结果对我国农业的空间结构演化机理进行了理论剖析,并提出我国农业的空间结构优化调整的原则性政策建议。
一、研究内容与方法
1.回顾我国农业发展历程,提出本研究所用的阶段划分和区域层次选择；运用“农业区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”等工具,基于2009年的农业经济统计数据对全国农业、农业四部门和主要农产品的空间结构状态进行了统计分析,从现实状态评判我国农业发展的区域差异性是否存在。
2.运用“区域重量”、“区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”等工具,首先构建了空间结构变化的评判参数和标准,对1978-1984年、1984-1992年、1992-1998年、1999-2002年、2002-2009年五个时段的全国农业、农业四部门、代表性农产品空间结构和七大区域农业空间结构的演变过程和趋势进行了实证评判分析。
3.在对农业发展的可能的影响因素定性分析的基础上,构建出空间面板计量模型,采用最大似然法(ML),使用Matlab2009软件按两阶段(1978-1992年、1992-2008年)和全时段(1978-2008年)进行空间计量分析,找出影响我国农业发展的主要因素；通过对正影响因素与农业的空间结构变化对比分析其一致性,找出影响农业空间结构变化的关键因素。
4.根据前文的研究结果,就相关影响因素对我国农业空间结构演化作用的路径和机理进行了理论剖析。
二、研究的主要结论
(一)我国农业在空间上存在差异性
(1)通过按全国县级区域农业及四部门人均产值系数进行空间聚类判断,认为我国农业区域可分为东北、华北、华东、华中、华南、西南、西北七个大区域,其中种植业、林业、牧业在七大区域都有优势区县分布,渔业主要分布在东北、华北、华东、华中和华南等五个中心区域。
(2)从全国、四大区域、七大区域、各省区不同区域层次内农业四部门的区域重心相对其农业区域重心的偏离程度看,各区域层次中均存有偏离,总体上林业和渔业的区域重心偏离程度比较大。
(3)从区域匀质系数分析,除东北地区的牧业区域差异弱外,全国、四大区域、七大区域、各省区等不同区域层次内农业及其四部门的区域间差异均在中等强度以上,其中全国林业和渔业的区域差异程度最高。
(二)我国农业空间结构的演变趋势与特征
(1)我国农业空间结构变化趋势为“空间重量持续增加,区域重心多向曲折移动、总体移向西北,省区间的差异有所变化但不很明显”
(2)全国农业空间结构的演变具有历史阶段差异性。
①“区域重量”持续增加。全国农业区域重量变化均为“增重型”,各时期的增重幅度有差异,其中变化较大的时期按大小顺序分别为1992-1998年、1978-1984年、2002-2009年、1984-1992年。
②全国农业区域重心呈多向移动,总体向西北移动；不同时期农业区域重心的移动距离差异较大,其中移动距离较大的时期按大小顺序分别为2002-2009年、1984-1992年、1992-1998年(后两个时期移动方向相反)
③全国农业匀质系数均介于0.1和1之间,属于中等强度的区域差异,全国的区域匀质系数变化不明显,其中变化较大的时期按大小顺序分别为1992-1998年(增大)、2002-2009年(减小)、1978-1984年(增大)
④根据对不同历史阶段比较分析,我国农业空间结构在每个时期都有变化,其中变化最大的时期是1978-1984年、1992-1998年、2002-2009年三个时期,也与我国农业经营制度改革、经济体制改革和农业财政政策变化较大的时期相对应。本人认为农业结构调整政策对农业空间结构变化有影响,经济体制、农业经营制度和农业财政政策对空间结构变化都有较大影响。
(3)我国农业空间结构演变具有区域层次差异性
各大区域的农业空间结构变化过程中,空间重量均为持续增重,但增长速度各不相同；七大区域的农业区域重心移动除了华中、西北部地区有持续稳定的方向外,其他区域的移动方向不稳定；次区域差异化变动趋势各不相同。用全国与七大区域的农业空间结构变化趋势相比较,差异明显。所以认为我国农业空间结构演变是多中心的。
(4)我国农业空间结构演变具有产业层级差异性
农业四部门之间、部分农产品之间的空间结构演变趋势各不相同,差异较大。说明我国农业的区域结构变化主要表现在部门和产品层次。
(三)我国农业空间结构演变的影响因素.
(1)我国农业发展的关键因素分析
①不同时间段划分得出的结果相似,每个因素不同时间对我国农业发展的作用方向相同,只是作用大小有差异。
②农林牧渔业从业人员数量、耕地面积、非农产值比重、人均GDP、公路密度等5个因素对我国农业经济发展为明显负作用；人口总数、农业机械总动力、财政支农经费、农业劳动者人均农业总产值等4个因素对我国农业发展为明显正作用,是影响我国农业发展的主要因素。
③全国农业及各次区域的农业发展受到人口总数、农业机械总动力、财政支农经费、农业劳动者人均农业总产值等4个关键因素的影响。
(2)通过全国4个关键因素与全国农业产值的区域重量、区域重心、区域匀质性进行比较分析,具有相对的一致性,其中财政支农具有高度的一致性。说明是这四个因素的区域差异性也是影响全国农业空间结构的关键因素,只是影响程度和重点不同。
(四)农业的空间结构演化机理
(1)本研究认为我国空间结构演化是多因素共同作用的结果,是各次区域农业发展的空间表现效果,由于各个次区域农业的差异化发展,最终导致大区域农业空间结构的变化。
(2)众多影响因素是通过两条路径发生作用：一是影响农业经营者的决策行为；二是影响农业生产力水平。
(五)总体结论和政策建议
基于理论分析和实证考察,本研究的总体结论有：(1)我国的农业空间结构变化是多中心的,中心区域可大致分为华东、东北、华北、华中、西北、华南、西南七个区域；(2)我国农业区域化发展不在总量层面,是发生在农业部门甚至农业产品层面,不同产业层次有不同的演变趋势,种植业、林业、牧业的区域差异程度呈扩大趋势,但程度不同,而渔业的区域差异化在缩小。其中种植业的代表产品粮食和牧业相伴集聚,在空间上表现为同样的区域分异趋势,林业和渔业则表现为独立的演化趋势,主要农产品生产的空间结构变化程度最为明显；(3)影响我国农业空间结构的变化的主要因素包括体制和制度因素、科技因素、政策因素、人口因素和农业生产力水平。我国农业发展在相邻区域间存在相互影响。(4)影响因素主要是通过影响农业生产经营者决策行为和农业生产力水平两个层面作用于次区域农业发展,区域间相互影响,最终导致全国农业空间结构的变化。
基于全文研究分析,结合相关文献,提出了在市场经济条件下,促进我国农业空间结构优化调整的政策建议。(1)农业空间结构调整优化应坚持如下五条原则：一是因地制宜原则：二是市场导向原则；三是区域差别原则；四是安全战略原则；五是重抓关键原则。(2)本人认为农业区域结构优化调整的政策着力点有四：一是制定农业产业发展优势农产品区域布局规划,区域差别化政策的制定提供依据；二是重视农业科技的作用,提高农业生产力水平；三是引导农业经营者和生产者的经营决策行为,实现农业次产业的区域差别化发展；四是营造有利的信息、市场、交通、非农产业等农业发展外部环境,保证农业生产与市场需求的有效对接,化解农业区域化发展过程中产生的农业劳动力过剩、区域产业空心化等矛盾和问题。(3)从支持农业产业发展、改善农业发展外部环境两个方面提出了几点具体建议。
三、论文主要创新点
本研究在如下四方面的有所创新：
一是有关概念创新。本文借用区域经济学中区域空间结构理论的方法,将传统的农业生产布局问题转化为空间结构问题,首次尝试着对“农业空间结构”的概念作了界定。借用了“重量”、“地理重心”和“差异系数”概念,提出了“农业区域重量”“农业区域重心”和“区域匀质系数”概念。
二是研究视角创新。运用区域经济学的空间结构理论,以农业及其各子产业为对象,将“我国农业”视为一个“空间实体”,从整体化的视角研究其区域分布状态及状态演化规律,从研究视角上有所创新。
三是研究方法有新意。本研究应用系统分析方法,将农业层级与区域层次进行复合,构建了农业空间结构的层次体系,利用区域重量、区域地理重心和区域匀质系数分析农业的空间结构演化有一定新意。应用空间面板计量分析方法进行因素分析比传统的一般面板计量分析更具科学性。
四是通过研究得出了一些有用的结论。我国农业空间结构演化具有历史阶段性、区域层次性和产业层级性；众多因素中农业政策对农业发展及其区域结构的变化影响大；提出了相应的原则性政策建议。
Reasonable spatial distribution of agriculture is an important part in the strategic restr ucturing of China's agriculture. Since the reform and opening up, China has adjusted the agricultural structure for four times, among which in1998, the central government put up clearly that the regional structural optimization as an important part of Strategic adjustment of agricultural structure and through the professional development of the agricultural region and optimizing agricultural resource allocation to achieve strategic goals that the shift of China from a major agricultural country to a powerful one, After more than10years of practice, what is the change of spatial structure of agriculture in China? What are the key policy choices and focuses of the agricultural regional restructuring?
Those questions caused my interest and inspired me research on the rules of evolution of the spatial structure of agriculture in China. Focusing on the research questions of "the basic rules of spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China", there are three sub questions:(1) What is the trend of spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China?(2) What are the main factors of spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China?(3) How do these factors affect the spatial structural evolution of agriculture in China?
Part1Goals and Way of the Research
There are three objectives in this study. The first, grasp the rules and trends of evolution of China's agricultural spatial structure. The seconds, reveal the decisive factors of influence on the evolution of China's agricultural spatial structure. The third, clarify the evolution rules of spatial structure of Chinese Agriculture.
The way of research of this paper is:First, using the connotation of the concepts of" weight", the"geographical center of gravity" and the "difference factor", and on the basis of defined spatial structure of the agriculture and other related concepts, the paper proposes to use the concepts of the "regional weight","regional center of gravity "and "regional coefficient of uniformity" as a framework of theoretical analysis of the three theoretical parameters to describe the structure of agricultural space. Then, based on the theoretic analysis framework of agricultural spatial structure, it builds the index system of evaluation of agricultural spatial structure and the criteria of identifying the degree of change of the structural parameters of agricultural spatial structure. Based on them, it makes empirical analysis of the evolution trends of different level of China's different regions,different industrial sectors and some of the major agricultural products. Finally, it uses spatial models of the spatial structure of China's agricultural evolution to make the empirical investigation, and makes a theoretical analysis based on the empirical result and makes some suggestions on the principle policy of optimizing adjustment of China's agricultural structure.
Part2the Content and Basic Conclusions
(A) The statistical analysis of the spatial structure of China's agricultural present situation and characteristics with the use of the regional center of gravity of the agriculture and regional uniform coefficient and other tools, and the statistical quantitati ve analysis based on the2009agricultural economic statistics on agriculture in the four departments and the spatial structure of the major agricultural state, we obtains the following basic conclusions:
(1) Through the coefficient clustering analysis of the county-level regional agricultur e and the four departments GDP per capita, we know that the agricultural areas in China can be divided into seven major areas of northeast, north, east, central, south, southwest, northwest, in which the farming,forestry,animal husbandry has an advantage in the seven regional distribution of counties, and the fishery is mainly distributed in northeast ern, northern, eastern,central and southern of China as five main regions.
(2) From the extent of the regional center of gravity relative to the center of gravity of the agricultural areas regional levels within the agricultural sector of the whole country, four regions, seven regions, all the provinces, there is deviation from the various regional levels. There is a deviation from the overall forestry and the focus o f the fisheries area the level of deviation is relatively large.
(3) Based on the regional analysis of uniformity coefficients, besides the weakness of the regional differences in Northeast Livestock,the inter-regional difference of agriculture and its four departments within the hierarchy of different regions of the whole country, four regions, seven regions, all the provinces is in the middle strength, of which the regional differences is in the highest degree in the national forestry and fisheries. The overall conclusionis that the development of China's agricultural regionalization is multi-centeredand the regional differences in the four departments of agriculture are quite different. In other words, it is clear that the regional structure is quite different.
(B) The empirical analysis of the evolution of the spatial structure of China's agricultural trends.
Using the "area weight", the "regional center of gravity" and "regional uniform coefficient" as index, the paper firstly builds the spatial structure of the evaluation para meters and criteria. Then, it analyzes and evaluates empirically towards the five periods of national agriculture,agricultural sectors, the representatively spatial structure of agricultural products and the evolution process and trends of the spatial structures of the seven regional agriculture in1978-1984,1984-1992,1992-1998,1999-2003,2003-2009. It draws the following basic conclusions.
(1) Trend of China's agricultural spatial structure is that"the space weight continues to increase, the regional center of gravity twists and moves to multiple directors, the overall movement is to the northwest and there are the differences of provincial changes but they are not very obvious.
(2) Differences of historical stage of national agricultural spatial structure evolution
①From the analysis of changes in the area weight, except the only decreasing change of area weight in national food regions in1998-2002,the national food regional changes of area weight of the various stages of the country, the industry level, regional level are increasing. There are differences of the increasing weight, among which the ranks of changes are the periods of1992-1998,1978-1984,2002-2009,1984-1992.
②The regional center of gravity of national agriculture moves in multi-directions and the overall move is to the northwest. Weight shift of seven regional agricultural regions have not a steady direction in addition to the central and northwest regions. There is a big difference of distance of moving among different agricultural areas. The rank of the moving distance is2002-2009,1984-1992,1992-1998(the latter two periods move in the opposite directions).
③From the analysis of changes in agriculture uniformity coefficient,the uniformity coefficient of the whole country and seven regional agriculture is between0.1and1, which is a moderate-intensity regional difference.The country's regional uniform coefficient did not change significantly, among which the ranks of move are the period1992-1998(increase),2002-2009(decrease),1978-1984(increase).
Based on the comparative analysis of different historical periods, the spatial structure of China's agriculture has changed in each period. The greatest change is in the3period of years:1978-1984,1992-1998,2002-2009. But it also corresponds with the huge differences of China's agricultural reform, economic reform and agricultural fiscal policy. I think that the agriculture spatial structural changes affect the agricultural structural adjustment and the economic system, the system of agricultural operations and agricultural fiscal policy have a great impact on spatial structure.
(3) Differences of the regional level of agricultural spatial structure evolution.
Major regions of the agricultural process of spatial structure, spatial weight are continuing to gain weight, but the growth rate varies; sub-regional changes in the differentiation are not the same. Comparing the spatial structure of national and seven regional agricultural trends, the difference is obvious. Therefore, the evolution of China's agricultural spatial structure is multi-centered.
(4) Differences of industry-level of agricultural spatial structure evolution
Through the comparative analysis of evolution trend of structural changes in national agricultural four departments of agriculture and the evolution trend of spatial structure of some agricultural products,the evolutionary trend of China's agricultural spatial structure is mainly affected by the spatial structure evolution of farming and animal husbandry.
(C) The empirical investigation of the factors of influence of spatial structure of China's agricultural evolution.
(1)The analysis of key factors in China's agricultural development on the basis of qualitative analysis of possible influencing factors on the agricultural developm ent, the paper builds a spatial panel econometric model,adopts the maximum likelihood (ML) and Matlab2009software in two stages (1978-1992,1992-2008) and full period (1978-2008) to analyze the spatial econometric. The results show that.
a. Results of different time division are similar. Each factor plays the same direction of role in China's agricultural development, but the affect of role are different.
b.Five factors of the number of employees of the forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, arable land, the proportion of non-agricultural output value,the per capita GDP, and road density have significantly negative effect on the development of China's agricultural economy;while the4factors of the total population, the total power of agricultural machinery, funding for financial support for agriculture, agricultural labor p er total agricultural output value have obviously positive effect of China's agricultural development.
c.The development of national agricultural and sub-regional agricultural development are affected by4key factors including the total population, the total power of agricultural machinery, funding for financial support for agriculture, and agricultural laborers per capita agricultural output value.
(2) Through the comparative analysis of the4key factors of regional center of gravity, regional differences and regional focus of the national agricultural output, the result is consistent. It shows that the4factors are key factors, which affect the reginal center of gravity and regional differences of national agricultural spatial structure.
(D) The theoretical analysis of the evolution mechanism of the spatial structure of China's agriculture.
According to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper analyze theoretically on the related factors on the path and mechanism of agricultural spatial structure evolution.
(1)I think the evolution of spatial structure in China is the result of many factors workingtogetherand is the performance effects of sub-regional agricultural development space.It will eventually lead to changes in the structure of regional agricultural space due to the various sub-regional differences in agriculture development.
(2) A number of influencing factors occurs through two paths:First is the impact of the agricultural operator's decision-making behavior. The second is the effect the level of agricultural productivity.
(3) The paper describes in details on the different roles of the path of influencing factors of influcing the mechanism of agricultural spatial structure.
Part3the Overall Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical investigation, the overall conclusions of this study are:
(1) China's agricultural spatial structure is multi-centered. The center area can be divided into seven regions of the East, Northeast, North China, Central China, Northwest, South, Southwest;
(2) The development of China's agricultural regionalization is not the total level but the agricultural sector and even the level of agricultural products. There are different trends of evaluation on the different levels of industries. The degree of differences of fanning, forestry, and animal husbandry expands. But the degree of differences of fisheries shrinks. Food, on behalf of the product for farming, and animal husbandry gather with the same regional differentiation trend in space. Forestry and fisheries show independent evolutionary trend. The degree of change of the spatial structure of agricultural production is the most obvious;
(3)The main factors affecting the spatial changes in the structure of China's agricultural system and institutional factors are technological factors, policy factors, demographic factors, and agricultural productivity levels. China's agricultural development is interactively affected between the adjacent regions.(4) The main influencing factors affect the agricultural production business on decision-making behavior and the level of agricultural productivity at two levels. They play the role of agricultural development in the sub-regional, inter-regional interaction. It eventually leads to changes in the structure of national agricultural space.
Based on the full-text research and analysis, related literature, it proposes recommendations of the optimal adjustment policy to promote the agricultural spatial structure under the conditions of market economy.(1) Structural adjustment of agricultural space optimization should adhere to the following five principles:local conditions principles; market-oriented principles;the principle of regional differences; the principle of security strategy; focus on the key principles.(2) I think the focus of agricultural areas on structure adjustment of policy are a. to make regional distribution planning of the development of agricultural industry development of competitive agricultural products and provide the basis for policy formulation of regional differentiation;b. emphasis on the role of agricultural science and technology and to improve agricultural productivity; c. to guide agricultural operators and producers' decision-making behavior to realize the development of the regional differentiation of agricultural industry; d. to create a favorable external environment of the agricultural development of the information, market, transport, and non-agricultural industries to ensure that agricultural production and market demand effectively dock and to resolve the contradictions and problems of the surplus of agricultural labor, regional industrial hollowing in the process of agricultural regional development.(3) Put forward some concrete proposals to improve two aspects of the agricultural development of the external environment from the support of agricultural industry development.
引文
1刘斌,张兆刚等,中国三农问题报告,北京,中国发展出版社,2004.4,29-35
1姜春云.中国农业实践与发展研究[M].北京：中国农业出版社出版,2001.286
2张晓群,陈宝峰,加入WTO与我国农业结构调整对策,中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2002,01
1《中国三农问题报告》P31
2刘斌,张兆刚等,《中国三农问题报告》中国发展出版社,2004,P32
1任景明等：中国农业政策环境影响初步分析,中国农学通报,2009,25(15)：223-229
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