十年经济发展对环境空气和地表水体质量的影响
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摘要
改革开放以来我国经济经历了一个持续的高速增长阶段。然而,快速的经济增长不可避免地加剧了对资源消耗、环境保护的压力,生态环境恶化与经济发展之间的两难冲突已经日益受到关注。山东作为一个人口大省,伴随着国民经济的快速增长,带来的环境污染问题也日益突出。研究环境与经济增长之间的相互关系,实现经济与环境的协调发展已迫在眉睫。
本文首先对西方环境经济学关于环境资源的稀缺性理论发展过程和国内外关于环境质量与经济增长之间的关系以及环境污染损失核算的研究状态进行了综述,并对山东省十年来经济发展和环境质量变迁进行了系统地阐述。在评述的基础之上,运用计量经济学的分析方法,探讨了经济增长与环境质量变化之间的曲线关系;与此同时,运用环境经济学的方法,对经济发展带来的环境污染损失进行了核算。最后结合上述分析结果,根据山东省的实际情况,提出了实现山东省可持续发展的政策建议。本文的主要研究内容及结论包括:
首先,对山东省经济发展状况与污染物排放及环境质量的变化趋势研究表明:十年来国民经济实现持续平稳的较快增长,产业结构调整明显。但是,经济增长方式仍然较为粗放,经济的快速增长主要是以能源资源的大量使用为代价换来的效益。污染物排放总量总体呈下降的趋势,从1997年到1999年呈急剧下降趋势,从2002年开始下降趋势变得平缓。与此同时,运用GIS技术直观地表明了环境质量与地理位置和城市的经济发展水平呈较强的相关性。城市空气与地表水体质量随城市的经济发展与污染治理投资水平的差异,呈现出不同的发展趋势。
其次,经济增长与环境质量变化的计量研究结果表明:选取的环境污染度量指标与人均GDP之间多数呈U型和N型曲线关系。就目前全省经济发展水平而言,虽然多数指标正处于下降通道,但是随着经济进一步的发展、人均GDP水平的进一步上升,环境恶化趋势又会出现。着重指出工业二氧化硫排放量与城市空气中二氧化硫浓度两项指标今后几年内随着GDP的增长将继续升高,急需加大对二氧化硫排放的控制力度。产业结构的变化、工业占GDP所占比重的下降产生的“结构效应”以及环保投资的增加产生的“技术效应”和政府政策效应能够降低环境污染的排放量,改善环境质量。环境质量评价指标与污染排放评价指标的估计结果存在一致性,说明当前加强工业污染源的排放控制能够有效改善环境质量。
第三,环境污染损失核算的结果表明:2000年至2005年,全省基于损害的大气污染损失分别为96.7、108.96、127.38、148.63、168.58和187.03亿元,水污染损失分别为50.72、70.93、84.64、131.72、233.11和356.98亿元,两者增长幅度均较快。基于治理成本的污染损失近几年增长幅度均不大,基本保持在同一水平状态,这表明污染物排放量变化幅度较小,污染排放控制尤其是工业污染排放控制措施较为得力。值得关注的是,2001～2005年环境污染损失的增长速度明显高于GDP的增长速度,而且2005年环境损失占GDP的比例已接近3%。
最后,对环境政策与污染物排放之间进行相关研究,指出了政府官员环境保护考核机制的建立,不仅与环境保护投资的增加存在时间上的一致性,而且在污染物排放量的下降与环境质量的改善上均得到了响应。在环境政策分析的基础之上,从产业结构的优化升级、完善领导干部的环保绩效考核机制、加强环境与经济的综合决策机制、加大环境投入与鼓励发展环保产业、健全环境管理的法制管理体系以及加强环境宣传教育等方面提出了实现经济与环境可持续性发展的政策建议。
Since the reform and openness, Chinese economy has been kept the continuous and rapid growth status. However, with the rapid economic growth, the pressure on exhausted resource and environmental pollution problems have inevitedly become more serious, and the conflict between ecological deterioration and economic growth has been become a hot issue. In Shandong province, as a populous region, the environmental pollution problems also become more serious with its rapid economic growth. It is become a crucial issue to study the relationship between environment and economy, as well as how to coordinate the development of economy and environment.
In this paper, the development of the environmental resource shortage theory is firstly described. The research status on the relationship between economic growth with environmental quality, and pollution loss accounting are also been eluted. Then, the economic growth and environmental quality change of Shandong provice from 1995 to 2005 have been systemly explained. Based on the previous results, the econometric method has been used on the empirical study of EKC. And at the same time, the environmental pollution loss has also been accounted. The policy suggestion on realizing sustainable economic development in Shandong province has been eventually pointed out. The main study issue and conclusions of this paper are listed below:
At first, the study results of economic development status, pollutants emission and environmental quality trends in Shandong province have showed: from 1995 to 2005, the national economy has kept continuous, steady and rapid growth. The economic structure has evidently been changed. However, the main reason for the economic growth is the tremendous energy resources consumption. The pollutants emission showed downward trends, and mostly occoured on 1997 to 1999, then the downwoard trends become more slowly. At the same time, environmental quality took on strong relativity with geological situation by using GIS technical methods. Following the different levels of economic growth and pollution control investment, urban air and surface water quality showed variable trends in 17 cities.
Secondly, the econometric study results of the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality have showed: most relationship curves between environmental pollution factors and GDP per capita are U-shaped and N-shaped. At present levels of GDP per capita, most pollution factors tends to decerate, but accelerate again at high levels of e GDP per capita. The industrial sulfur dioxides and sulfur dioxides concentration in urban air will be increased in several years, which.means more control measure should be take on sulfur dioxides emission The scale and composition effects, which produced by the economic structure change and the industry ratio decrease, have showed positive effects on environmental quality. The pollution control investment and government policy can also decrease the pollutant emission. It will be effective channel to promote environmental quality by enhancing the industrial pollution source control, which can be reduced from the consistency between pollutant emission factors and environmental quality factors.
Thirdly, the sudy results of the environmental pollution loss accounting showed: from 2000 to 2005, based on the damage loss accounting, air pollution loss were 9.67, 10.89, 12.74, 14.86, 16.86 and 18.70 billion RMB, respectively; Water pollution loss were 5.07, 7.09, 8.46, 13.17, 23.31 and 35.70 billion RMB, respectively. The damage loss has increased rapidly in the study years. While, the cost loss on pollution control has kept a level, which means pollutants emission has been controlled well and emission level has not tremendously been increased. The growh rate of the enviromental pollution loss is evidently higher than the GDP growth rate, and the enyiromental pollution loss ratio in GDP is almost 3%. It should be pay more attention by the goverment.
Finally, the correlation analysis between environmental policy and pollutants emission showed: establishing the merit system on envriomental quality for the government officer has greatly increased the environmental protection investment and promoted the environmental quality. Based on these analyses, the policy suggestions on setting up the sustainable economic development in Shandong province have also been brought forward.
本文首先对西方环境经济学关于环境资源的稀缺性理论发展过程和国内外关于环境质量与经济增长之间的关系以及环境污染损失核算的研究状态进行了综述,并对山东省十年来经济发展和环境质量变迁进行了系统地阐述。在评述的基础之上,运用计量经济学的分析方法,探讨了经济增长与环境质量变化之间的曲线关系;与此同时,运用环境经济学的方法,对经济发展带来的环境污染损失进行了核算。最后结合上述分析结果,根据山东省的实际情况,提出了实现山东省可持续发展的政策建议。本文的主要研究内容及结论包括:
首先,对山东省经济发展状况与污染物排放及环境质量的变化趋势研究表明:十年来国民经济实现持续平稳的较快增长,产业结构调整明显。但是,经济增长方式仍然较为粗放,经济的快速增长主要是以能源资源的大量使用为代价换来的效益。污染物排放总量总体呈下降的趋势,从1997年到1999年呈急剧下降趋势,从2002年开始下降趋势变得平缓。与此同时,运用GIS技术直观地表明了环境质量与地理位置和城市的经济发展水平呈较强的相关性。城市空气与地表水体质量随城市的经济发展与污染治理投资水平的差异,呈现出不同的发展趋势。
其次,经济增长与环境质量变化的计量研究结果表明:选取的环境污染度量指标与人均GDP之间多数呈U型和N型曲线关系。就目前全省经济发展水平而言,虽然多数指标正处于下降通道,但是随着经济进一步的发展、人均GDP水平的进一步上升,环境恶化趋势又会出现。着重指出工业二氧化硫排放量与城市空气中二氧化硫浓度两项指标今后几年内随着GDP的增长将继续升高,急需加大对二氧化硫排放的控制力度。产业结构的变化、工业占GDP所占比重的下降产生的“结构效应”以及环保投资的增加产生的“技术效应”和政府政策效应能够降低环境污染的排放量,改善环境质量。环境质量评价指标与污染排放评价指标的估计结果存在一致性,说明当前加强工业污染源的排放控制能够有效改善环境质量。
第三,环境污染损失核算的结果表明:2000年至2005年,全省基于损害的大气污染损失分别为96.7、108.96、127.38、148.63、168.58和187.03亿元,水污染损失分别为50.72、70.93、84.64、131.72、233.11和356.98亿元,两者增长幅度均较快。基于治理成本的污染损失近几年增长幅度均不大,基本保持在同一水平状态,这表明污染物排放量变化幅度较小,污染排放控制尤其是工业污染排放控制措施较为得力。值得关注的是,2001～2005年环境污染损失的增长速度明显高于GDP的增长速度,而且2005年环境损失占GDP的比例已接近3%。
最后,对环境政策与污染物排放之间进行相关研究,指出了政府官员环境保护考核机制的建立,不仅与环境保护投资的增加存在时间上的一致性,而且在污染物排放量的下降与环境质量的改善上均得到了响应。在环境政策分析的基础之上,从产业结构的优化升级、完善领导干部的环保绩效考核机制、加强环境与经济的综合决策机制、加大环境投入与鼓励发展环保产业、健全环境管理的法制管理体系以及加强环境宣传教育等方面提出了实现经济与环境可持续性发展的政策建议。
Since the reform and openness, Chinese economy has been kept the continuous and rapid growth status. However, with the rapid economic growth, the pressure on exhausted resource and environmental pollution problems have inevitedly become more serious, and the conflict between ecological deterioration and economic growth has been become a hot issue. In Shandong province, as a populous region, the environmental pollution problems also become more serious with its rapid economic growth. It is become a crucial issue to study the relationship between environment and economy, as well as how to coordinate the development of economy and environment.
In this paper, the development of the environmental resource shortage theory is firstly described. The research status on the relationship between economic growth with environmental quality, and pollution loss accounting are also been eluted. Then, the economic growth and environmental quality change of Shandong provice from 1995 to 2005 have been systemly explained. Based on the previous results, the econometric method has been used on the empirical study of EKC. And at the same time, the environmental pollution loss has also been accounted. The policy suggestion on realizing sustainable economic development in Shandong province has been eventually pointed out. The main study issue and conclusions of this paper are listed below:
At first, the study results of economic development status, pollutants emission and environmental quality trends in Shandong province have showed: from 1995 to 2005, the national economy has kept continuous, steady and rapid growth. The economic structure has evidently been changed. However, the main reason for the economic growth is the tremendous energy resources consumption. The pollutants emission showed downward trends, and mostly occoured on 1997 to 1999, then the downwoard trends become more slowly. At the same time, environmental quality took on strong relativity with geological situation by using GIS technical methods. Following the different levels of economic growth and pollution control investment, urban air and surface water quality showed variable trends in 17 cities.
Secondly, the econometric study results of the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality have showed: most relationship curves between environmental pollution factors and GDP per capita are U-shaped and N-shaped. At present levels of GDP per capita, most pollution factors tends to decerate, but accelerate again at high levels of e GDP per capita. The industrial sulfur dioxides and sulfur dioxides concentration in urban air will be increased in several years, which.means more control measure should be take on sulfur dioxides emission The scale and composition effects, which produced by the economic structure change and the industry ratio decrease, have showed positive effects on environmental quality. The pollution control investment and government policy can also decrease the pollutant emission. It will be effective channel to promote environmental quality by enhancing the industrial pollution source control, which can be reduced from the consistency between pollutant emission factors and environmental quality factors.
Thirdly, the sudy results of the environmental pollution loss accounting showed: from 2000 to 2005, based on the damage loss accounting, air pollution loss were 9.67, 10.89, 12.74, 14.86, 16.86 and 18.70 billion RMB, respectively; Water pollution loss were 5.07, 7.09, 8.46, 13.17, 23.31 and 35.70 billion RMB, respectively. The damage loss has increased rapidly in the study years. While, the cost loss on pollution control has kept a level, which means pollutants emission has been controlled well and emission level has not tremendously been increased. The growh rate of the enviromental pollution loss is evidently higher than the GDP growth rate, and the enyiromental pollution loss ratio in GDP is almost 3%. It should be pay more attention by the goverment.
Finally, the correlation analysis between environmental policy and pollutants emission showed: establishing the merit system on envriomental quality for the government officer has greatly increased the environmental protection investment and promoted the environmental quality. Based on these analyses, the policy suggestions on setting up the sustainable economic development in Shandong province have also been brought forward.
引文
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