地区电力系统负荷特性分析与需求侧管理研究
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摘要
随着经济的高速发展,地区电力系统最大负荷持续较快增长,峰谷差逐步增大,电力供需矛盾也趋于增加,负荷高峰时期电力缺口非常明显,给系统安全稳定运行带来很大威胁,也给电力负荷分析预测和电力营销分析带来了许多困难,因此,对负荷特性进行分析,同时分析总结影响负荷特性的主要因素,把握地区电力系统负荷特性的变化规律,在此基础上开展有针对性的需求侧管理研究,进而实施有效的电力负荷调控措施,对提高用电效率,深入推进低碳经济,具有十分重要的意义。
为了合理描述电力系统负荷随时间变化的特性,常常采用一些特定的负荷特性曲线及指标参数来衡量,本文论述了常用的负荷特性指标。以东莞电力负荷实测数据为例,采用指标法、曲线法和比较法,分析了年、月、典型日的负荷特性,进而深入探讨了东莞地区典型行业的负荷特性,得到了有意义的结论。
总结了影响负荷特性指标的主要因素,包括经济发展水平及经济结构调整、收入水平及生活水平的提高、电价变化、重大节假日、电力供应、需求侧管理措施、气象条件等七个方面,并对负荷与气温的相关性进行分析,定量分析了气温对地区电网负荷特性的影响,分析结果对掌握地区电力系统负荷变化规律和发展趋势具有一定的指导意义。
根据地区电力系统的负荷特性,研究了可中断负荷管理、绿色照明和蓄冷技术的应用等需求侧管理措施,以改善负荷特性,实现调节负荷的目标。以东莞的行业用电情况为例,探讨了造纸及纸制品业和电子行业这两个重点耗能行业提高电能利用率的途径,以其移峰填谷,减少用电峰谷差,降低电力最大负荷,提高电能利用率,改善电力系统安全性和经济性。
With the fast development of economics, the peak load in a regional power system has been keeping at a quick growing trend, while the gap between the peak and valley loads is becoming larger as well. The imbalance between the supply and demand has steadily become significant, and this has resulted in negative impacts on the security and stability of the power system concerned, and at the same time, the analysis and prediction of the maximum power load and the marketing of the energy are becoming more diffcicult. Given this background, analyzing the load characteristics while summarizing the factors that have impacts on the characteristics, grasping the pattern of the load characteristics of the regional power system and on this basis carrying out researches on the demand side management to effectively regulate system load, are all vital for improving the efficiency and eventually ensuring the security and economics of the regional power system.
In this thesis, some specified load indicators and related index parameters are clarified in order to accurately represent the time-varying characteristics of the system load. Based on the actual data of Dongguan regional power system, the index method, curve method and comparative method are employed to elaborate the features of the annual, monthly and daily power loads in Dongguan. Some useful conclusions are finally obtained.
Some major factors involved in the index system of the load characteristics include the economic development and regulation, the improved income and living quality, fluctuations of loads, holiday effects, power supply and demand, demand side management as well as weather. Studies on the relationship between the load and climate, and the quantitative analysis of the influence of the climate on the system load are instrumental to form a reasonable understanding of the regular pattern and trend of the regional power system.
Studies on the interruptible load management, green lightening and cooling storage technology, which are on the basis of load characteristics of the regional power system, could help to improve the power system operation, and to realize load regulation. According to the power usage of this local business, an effort is made to discuss the possible ways to improve the efficiency of the power consumption of paper manufacturing and electronics and to lead these major consumers to rationally allocate of power consumption. On the other hand, employing reasonable power storage means could narrow the gap of the peak and valley. As the result, the maximum power demand could be decreased, and the efficiency improved, and eventually the security and economics of the regional power system maintained.
为了合理描述电力系统负荷随时间变化的特性,常常采用一些特定的负荷特性曲线及指标参数来衡量,本文论述了常用的负荷特性指标。以东莞电力负荷实测数据为例,采用指标法、曲线法和比较法,分析了年、月、典型日的负荷特性,进而深入探讨了东莞地区典型行业的负荷特性,得到了有意义的结论。
总结了影响负荷特性指标的主要因素,包括经济发展水平及经济结构调整、收入水平及生活水平的提高、电价变化、重大节假日、电力供应、需求侧管理措施、气象条件等七个方面,并对负荷与气温的相关性进行分析,定量分析了气温对地区电网负荷特性的影响,分析结果对掌握地区电力系统负荷变化规律和发展趋势具有一定的指导意义。
根据地区电力系统的负荷特性,研究了可中断负荷管理、绿色照明和蓄冷技术的应用等需求侧管理措施,以改善负荷特性,实现调节负荷的目标。以东莞的行业用电情况为例,探讨了造纸及纸制品业和电子行业这两个重点耗能行业提高电能利用率的途径,以其移峰填谷,减少用电峰谷差,降低电力最大负荷,提高电能利用率,改善电力系统安全性和经济性。
With the fast development of economics, the peak load in a regional power system has been keeping at a quick growing trend, while the gap between the peak and valley loads is becoming larger as well. The imbalance between the supply and demand has steadily become significant, and this has resulted in negative impacts on the security and stability of the power system concerned, and at the same time, the analysis and prediction of the maximum power load and the marketing of the energy are becoming more diffcicult. Given this background, analyzing the load characteristics while summarizing the factors that have impacts on the characteristics, grasping the pattern of the load characteristics of the regional power system and on this basis carrying out researches on the demand side management to effectively regulate system load, are all vital for improving the efficiency and eventually ensuring the security and economics of the regional power system.
In this thesis, some specified load indicators and related index parameters are clarified in order to accurately represent the time-varying characteristics of the system load. Based on the actual data of Dongguan regional power system, the index method, curve method and comparative method are employed to elaborate the features of the annual, monthly and daily power loads in Dongguan. Some useful conclusions are finally obtained.
Some major factors involved in the index system of the load characteristics include the economic development and regulation, the improved income and living quality, fluctuations of loads, holiday effects, power supply and demand, demand side management as well as weather. Studies on the relationship between the load and climate, and the quantitative analysis of the influence of the climate on the system load are instrumental to form a reasonable understanding of the regular pattern and trend of the regional power system.
Studies on the interruptible load management, green lightening and cooling storage technology, which are on the basis of load characteristics of the regional power system, could help to improve the power system operation, and to realize load regulation. According to the power usage of this local business, an effort is made to discuss the possible ways to improve the efficiency of the power consumption of paper manufacturing and electronics and to lead these major consumers to rationally allocate of power consumption. On the other hand, employing reasonable power storage means could narrow the gap of the peak and valley. As the result, the maximum power demand could be decreased, and the efficiency improved, and eventually the security and economics of the regional power system maintained.
引文
[1]陶莉,肖昌,周魏,等.电力负荷特性分析方法研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2003,5 (4),30-32
[2] Rahman S.R. An Efficient Load Model for Analyzing Demand Side Management Impacts [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3):1219-1226
[3] O. Tatsuo. Theoretical Aspects of an Electricity Marking Cost Model [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1983,5(13):1324-1300
[4]魏沁华.县级供电公司负荷特性分析及需求侧管理规划[D].南京:东南大学,2006
[5]刘勇.河北南网负荷特性分析与负荷预测研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2007
[6]赵希正主编.电力负荷特性分析与预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002年
[7]王琦.负荷特性分析预测与需求侧管理研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2006
[8]韩丽娜.杭州地区电力负荷特性的分析与预测[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008
[9]孙玉才主编.国民经济行业用电分类指标解释[M].北京:国家电网公司,2004年.
[10]萧国良.电力系统负荷预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2007
[11]辛开远.基于AHP的实用长期电力负荷预测最优模型[J].中国电力,2005,38(3):18-22
[12]霍成军.电力系统负荷特性分析研究[D].天津:天津大学,2007
[13]戴琦.电力系统分行业负荷构成建模研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005
[14]肖国泉,王春,张福伟.电力负荷预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2001年
[15]仲伟宽.数据挖掘技术在负荷特性分析中的应用[D].南京:东南大学,2006
[16]杨建萍.南京市居民用电负荷特性分析与思考[J].电力需求侧管理,2002,4(2):24-27
[17] Mural Fabrioglu, Fernando L Alvarado. Using utility information to calibrate customer demand management behavior models [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2001,16 (2): 317-322.
[18] Sanghvi A. P. Flexible strategies for load/demand management using dynamic pricing [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1989,4(01):83-93
[19]邱向阳,周峰,刘升,等.福建省年最大降温负荷测算分析与研究[J].华东电力,2005,33(10):86-90
[20]于凤武.可中断负荷与可中断电价[J].中国电力企业管理,2004,1:44-45
[21]陈志文,杜松怀.电力市场中可中断负荷的定价方法[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(1):42-45
[22]王蓉蓉.可中断负荷管理的激励机制研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008
[23]王建学,王锡凡,张显,等.电力市场和过渡期电力系统可中断负荷管理(一)——可中断负荷成本效益分析[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(5):15-19
[24]谭忠富,张明文,姜海洋,等.促进发电节能的可中断电价优化设计模型[J].华北电力大学学报,2009,36(4):85-88
[25]刘国春.考虑用户可靠性的可中断负荷管理[D].上海:上海大学,2008
[26]广州供电局.企业节点锦囊[EB] . www.gzpsc.com/cn/tips/cropsave.aspx ,2010-09-20
[27]陈众励,成红文.冰蓄冷系统控制策略的探讨[J].低电压器,2003,B08:88-92
[28]北京市电力公司.冰蓄冷空调技术、冰蓄冷空调系统的构成与运行工况[EB] . http://bjdsm.com/newweb/technology/detail.asp?id=5&sort=负荷管理,2010-09-03
[2] Rahman S.R. An Efficient Load Model for Analyzing Demand Side Management Impacts [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3):1219-1226
[3] O. Tatsuo. Theoretical Aspects of an Electricity Marking Cost Model [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1983,5(13):1324-1300
[4]魏沁华.县级供电公司负荷特性分析及需求侧管理规划[D].南京:东南大学,2006
[5]刘勇.河北南网负荷特性分析与负荷预测研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2007
[6]赵希正主编.电力负荷特性分析与预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002年
[7]王琦.负荷特性分析预测与需求侧管理研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2006
[8]韩丽娜.杭州地区电力负荷特性的分析与预测[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008
[9]孙玉才主编.国民经济行业用电分类指标解释[M].北京:国家电网公司,2004年.
[10]萧国良.电力系统负荷预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2007
[11]辛开远.基于AHP的实用长期电力负荷预测最优模型[J].中国电力,2005,38(3):18-22
[12]霍成军.电力系统负荷特性分析研究[D].天津:天津大学,2007
[13]戴琦.电力系统分行业负荷构成建模研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005
[14]肖国泉,王春,张福伟.电力负荷预测[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2001年
[15]仲伟宽.数据挖掘技术在负荷特性分析中的应用[D].南京:东南大学,2006
[16]杨建萍.南京市居民用电负荷特性分析与思考[J].电力需求侧管理,2002,4(2):24-27
[17] Mural Fabrioglu, Fernando L Alvarado. Using utility information to calibrate customer demand management behavior models [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2001,16 (2): 317-322.
[18] Sanghvi A. P. Flexible strategies for load/demand management using dynamic pricing [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1989,4(01):83-93
[19]邱向阳,周峰,刘升,等.福建省年最大降温负荷测算分析与研究[J].华东电力,2005,33(10):86-90
[20]于凤武.可中断负荷与可中断电价[J].中国电力企业管理,2004,1:44-45
[21]陈志文,杜松怀.电力市场中可中断负荷的定价方法[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(1):42-45
[22]王蓉蓉.可中断负荷管理的激励机制研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008
[23]王建学,王锡凡,张显,等.电力市场和过渡期电力系统可中断负荷管理(一)——可中断负荷成本效益分析[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(5):15-19
[24]谭忠富,张明文,姜海洋,等.促进发电节能的可中断电价优化设计模型[J].华北电力大学学报,2009,36(4):85-88
[25]刘国春.考虑用户可靠性的可中断负荷管理[D].上海:上海大学,2008
[26]广州供电局.企业节点锦囊[EB] . www.gzpsc.com/cn/tips/cropsave.aspx ,2010-09-20
[27]陈众励,成红文.冰蓄冷系统控制策略的探讨[J].低电压器,2003,B08:88-92
[28]北京市电力公司.冰蓄冷空调技术、冰蓄冷空调系统的构成与运行工况[EB] . http://bjdsm.com/newweb/technology/detail.asp?id=5&sort=负荷管理,2010-09-03