BOT高速公路项目风险分担机制研究
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摘要
我国高速公路迅猛发展,其建设资金需要靠融资解决。由此BOT的融资方式在国内外都深受青睐。由于利用BOT建设高速公路的方式在国内外兴起时间尚短,目前正处于摸索阶段。项目参与者之间的关系尚未完全理顺,主要体现在风险分担方面。风险分担合理与否决定着高速公路BOT高速公路项目能否顺利进行。目前,我国尚未建立合理的风险分担机制,在一定程度上阻碍了高速公路BOT的发展。因此本文对BOT高速公路项目中风险分担机制的设计进行研究。
本文首先对风险分担机制的主客体进行分析和界定,通过风险分担博弈分析确定了项目风险最优分担的最基本原则,选用层次模糊方法构建了风险分担模型,运用匈牙利指派算法找出各类风险及其对应的最合理承担者。在此基础上运用激励约束理论设计和建立风险分担机制,形成了一套理性化的制度本文,使项目各参与方可以在制度的规约下能积极应对风险,追求风险期望收益最大化。从而减少风险分担方式下可能引起的纠纷,保证项目的顺利实施和项目参与方的顺畅交流与合作,为项目各参与方理性对待风险提供制度支持。
最后,本文总结出BOT高速公路项目风险分担机制的整体运作机理,为BOT高速公路项目成功运作提供理论支持。
With the rapid development of our country expressway, the funds for projects rely on financing, so the BOT become very popular in the world. Owing to the later start time of BOT, now, it is being in to grope stage. The relation among project participators has not been straightened completely, and it mainly reflects in allocation of risks. Whether reasonably of allocation of risks decides the BOT expressway project whether go on smoothly. Now our country have not establishment reasonable allocation of risks mechanism, on certain level, it has hinder the development of the expressway BOT. Therefore this thesis studies on design for allocation of risks mechanism in BOT expressway project
In this thesis subjects and objects of the allocation of risks mechanism is analyzed and established. Through the Game analysis on allocation of risks the most basic principle of the project risk optimum distribution has been determined. It analysis the major risks in project how to distribute reasonably to major participators by AHP-Fuzzy assessment and assignment method, and find out its each kind of risk corresponding most reasonable undertaker. In this thesis allocation of risks mechanism is designed and established using incentive and restraining theoretical, and it is formed a set of reason system, under which each participator can reply actively risk and pursue the biggest risk expectation profit. Participators carries out effective control and share risks, so it can reduce the dispute that may arouse under the allocation of risks way, guarantee the project smoothly enforcement and intercommunion and cooperation among participators. It offers system support for project participators in reason to treat risks.
Finally, in this thesis an overall operation of allocation of risks mechanism is summarized. It is offered theory support for the successful operations in the BOT expressway project.
本文首先对风险分担机制的主客体进行分析和界定,通过风险分担博弈分析确定了项目风险最优分担的最基本原则,选用层次模糊方法构建了风险分担模型,运用匈牙利指派算法找出各类风险及其对应的最合理承担者。在此基础上运用激励约束理论设计和建立风险分担机制,形成了一套理性化的制度本文,使项目各参与方可以在制度的规约下能积极应对风险,追求风险期望收益最大化。从而减少风险分担方式下可能引起的纠纷,保证项目的顺利实施和项目参与方的顺畅交流与合作,为项目各参与方理性对待风险提供制度支持。
最后,本文总结出BOT高速公路项目风险分担机制的整体运作机理,为BOT高速公路项目成功运作提供理论支持。
With the rapid development of our country expressway, the funds for projects rely on financing, so the BOT become very popular in the world. Owing to the later start time of BOT, now, it is being in to grope stage. The relation among project participators has not been straightened completely, and it mainly reflects in allocation of risks. Whether reasonably of allocation of risks decides the BOT expressway project whether go on smoothly. Now our country have not establishment reasonable allocation of risks mechanism, on certain level, it has hinder the development of the expressway BOT. Therefore this thesis studies on design for allocation of risks mechanism in BOT expressway project
In this thesis subjects and objects of the allocation of risks mechanism is analyzed and established. Through the Game analysis on allocation of risks the most basic principle of the project risk optimum distribution has been determined. It analysis the major risks in project how to distribute reasonably to major participators by AHP-Fuzzy assessment and assignment method, and find out its each kind of risk corresponding most reasonable undertaker. In this thesis allocation of risks mechanism is designed and established using incentive and restraining theoretical, and it is formed a set of reason system, under which each participator can reply actively risk and pursue the biggest risk expectation profit. Participators carries out effective control and share risks, so it can reduce the dispute that may arouse under the allocation of risks way, guarantee the project smoothly enforcement and intercommunion and cooperation among participators. It offers system support for project participators in reason to treat risks.
Finally, in this thesis an overall operation of allocation of risks mechanism is summarized. It is offered theory support for the successful operations in the BOT expressway project.
引文
[1]何伯森,万彩芸.BOT 项目的风险分担与合同管理.中国港湾建设,2001. 5
[2]杨萍,BOT 项目风险评价及风险分担机制研究:[硕士学位论文].西南石油学院,2005
[3]沈建明. 项目风险管理[M]. 机械工业出版社,2004
[4]邓铁军,仇一颗. 工程风险管理[M]. 人民交通出版社,2004
[5]S. Q. Wang .BOT project promoted to tempt foreign investors. Modern Power Systems.Apr96, Vol16, Issue4
[6]Trem Dikmen Ozdoganm & M.Talat Birgonul. A Decision Support Framework for Project Sponsors in the Planning Stage of BOT Projects. Construction Management and Economics, 2000,18(3)
[7]N. A. The Energies Secures Financing for BOT Project in Mexico. PR Newswire, 2000,3
[8]Lin Qiao,Zhou Qing Wang. Framework for Critical Success Factors of BOT Project in China [J].Journal of Project Finance, 2001,7(1):53-62
[9]Bakatjan, Sandalkhan. Optimal Capital Structure Model for BOT Power Project in Turkey [J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2003,129(1):89-97
[10]岳锋利.BOT 项目的风险分析与防范策略[J].现代管理科学,2004,11:69-70
[11]王刚.承包商面临的建设项目风险环境综合评价[J].基建优化,2003,24(1):1-4
[12]杨宏伟,何建敏,周晶.BOT 项目“有限追索权”融资方式的风险收益分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2002(11):920-924
[13]肖条军,盛昭潮,周晶.交通 BOT 项目投资的对策分析[J].基建优化,2002,(4):7-8
[14]尹志军,陈立文,王双正.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002,4:7-8
[15]岳思红.交通 BOT 项目风险的特征及分担方法[J].中国流通经济,2000,18:69-78
[16]K.T.Yeoa, Robert, L.K.Tiongb. Positive Management of Differences for RiskReduction in BOT Projects [J].International Journal of Projects Management, 2000, 18:257-265
[17]S. Q. Wang, L. K. Tiongb. Case Study of Government Initiatives for PRC’s BOT Power Plant Project [J]. International Journal of Projects Management, 2000, 18:69-78
[18]Nabil A.Kartam, Saied A.Kartam. Risk and its Management in the Kuwaiti Construction Industry: A Contractors Perspective [J].International Journal of Projects Management, 2001, 19:325-335
[19]Robert Tiong. Evaluation of Proposals for BOT Projects. [J]. International Journal of Projects Management, 1997, 15:21-23
[20]Roozbeh Kangari.Risk Management Perceptions and Trends of U.S. Construction [J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1995, 12:442-449
[21]江前良.国际 BOT 方式理论与实务.中国对外经济贸易出版社,1996. 8(1)
[22]姜鲁青.BOT 项目结构研究:[硕士学位论文].浙江:浙江大学,2003
[23]李金早.BOT 投资方式.中国经济出版社,1996. 1(1): 22-24
[24]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策.机械工业出版社,1987. 10 (1) : 130-133
[25]刘芳.BOT 项目的风险识别与应对:[ 硕士学位论文].天津:天津理工大学,2004
[26]姚亮,周晶.BOT 项目风险及来源分析[J]东南大学学报,2002,10:9-12
[27]吴艳霞,王雷,殷仲明.基于投资方角度的项目融资分担研究[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2006,28(2):115-119
[28]李倩,周栩.铁路建设BOT项目的博弈分析[J]铁路工程造价管理,2004, (5) :23-27.
[29]韩艳.公路 BOT 经营中风险评估方法研究[J] :[硕士学位论文].长安大学,2001
[30]杨萍.BOT 项目中风险分担模型研究[J].价值工程,2005. 8
[31]田权魁.模糊理论与 AHP 相结合的 BOT 风险研究[J].低温建筑技术,2004,2:91
[32]徐泽水.模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J].系统工程学报,2001.16(4):311-314
[33]郭洁.工程项目风险分析与 BOT 模式风险管理实证研究:[硕士学位论文].天津:天津大学,2004
[34]陈赟.工程项目融资风险分担的博弈分析[J].长沙交通学院学报,2004,20(2):83-85
[35]北京市咨询公司.BOT 项目指南—基础设施投资方式之一.地震出版社,1995.11.(1):38
[36]戴公兴.BOT 项目运作手册.中国统计出版社,1997
[37]曾显春.BOT 问题与对策.企业经济,1998. 2
[38]王晓刚.交通 PFI 模式的风险分担机制研究:[硕士学位论文].西南交通大学,2004
[39]范黎波.BOT 投资方式的运作及我们的对策.对外经济贸易大学学报,1999. 2
[40]白思俊.现代项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2002,275-276
[41]傅鸿源.BOT 项目风险评价方法的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996.10:55-58
[42]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.大型工程建设项目风险分析方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996(8)
[2]杨萍,BOT 项目风险评价及风险分担机制研究:[硕士学位论文].西南石油学院,2005
[3]沈建明. 项目风险管理[M]. 机械工业出版社,2004
[4]邓铁军,仇一颗. 工程风险管理[M]. 人民交通出版社,2004
[5]S. Q. Wang .BOT project promoted to tempt foreign investors. Modern Power Systems.Apr96, Vol16, Issue4
[6]Trem Dikmen Ozdoganm & M.Talat Birgonul. A Decision Support Framework for Project Sponsors in the Planning Stage of BOT Projects. Construction Management and Economics, 2000,18(3)
[7]N. A. The Energies Secures Financing for BOT Project in Mexico. PR Newswire, 2000,3
[8]Lin Qiao,Zhou Qing Wang. Framework for Critical Success Factors of BOT Project in China [J].Journal of Project Finance, 2001,7(1):53-62
[9]Bakatjan, Sandalkhan. Optimal Capital Structure Model for BOT Power Project in Turkey [J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2003,129(1):89-97
[10]岳锋利.BOT 项目的风险分析与防范策略[J].现代管理科学,2004,11:69-70
[11]王刚.承包商面临的建设项目风险环境综合评价[J].基建优化,2003,24(1):1-4
[12]杨宏伟,何建敏,周晶.BOT 项目“有限追索权”融资方式的风险收益分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2002(11):920-924
[13]肖条军,盛昭潮,周晶.交通 BOT 项目投资的对策分析[J].基建优化,2002,(4):7-8
[14]尹志军,陈立文,王双正.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002,4:7-8
[15]岳思红.交通 BOT 项目风险的特征及分担方法[J].中国流通经济,2000,18:69-78
[16]K.T.Yeoa, Robert, L.K.Tiongb. Positive Management of Differences for RiskReduction in BOT Projects [J].International Journal of Projects Management, 2000, 18:257-265
[17]S. Q. Wang, L. K. Tiongb. Case Study of Government Initiatives for PRC’s BOT Power Plant Project [J]. International Journal of Projects Management, 2000, 18:69-78
[18]Nabil A.Kartam, Saied A.Kartam. Risk and its Management in the Kuwaiti Construction Industry: A Contractors Perspective [J].International Journal of Projects Management, 2001, 19:325-335
[19]Robert Tiong. Evaluation of Proposals for BOT Projects. [J]. International Journal of Projects Management, 1997, 15:21-23
[20]Roozbeh Kangari.Risk Management Perceptions and Trends of U.S. Construction [J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1995, 12:442-449
[21]江前良.国际 BOT 方式理论与实务.中国对外经济贸易出版社,1996. 8(1)
[22]姜鲁青.BOT 项目结构研究:[硕士学位论文].浙江:浙江大学,2003
[23]李金早.BOT 投资方式.中国经济出版社,1996. 1(1): 22-24
[24]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策.机械工业出版社,1987. 10 (1) : 130-133
[25]刘芳.BOT 项目的风险识别与应对:[ 硕士学位论文].天津:天津理工大学,2004
[26]姚亮,周晶.BOT 项目风险及来源分析[J]东南大学学报,2002,10:9-12
[27]吴艳霞,王雷,殷仲明.基于投资方角度的项目融资分担研究[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2006,28(2):115-119
[28]李倩,周栩.铁路建设BOT项目的博弈分析[J]铁路工程造价管理,2004, (5) :23-27.
[29]韩艳.公路 BOT 经营中风险评估方法研究[J] :[硕士学位论文].长安大学,2001
[30]杨萍.BOT 项目中风险分担模型研究[J].价值工程,2005. 8
[31]田权魁.模糊理论与 AHP 相结合的 BOT 风险研究[J].低温建筑技术,2004,2:91
[32]徐泽水.模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J].系统工程学报,2001.16(4):311-314
[33]郭洁.工程项目风险分析与 BOT 模式风险管理实证研究:[硕士学位论文].天津:天津大学,2004
[34]陈赟.工程项目融资风险分担的博弈分析[J].长沙交通学院学报,2004,20(2):83-85
[35]北京市咨询公司.BOT 项目指南—基础设施投资方式之一.地震出版社,1995.11.(1):38
[36]戴公兴.BOT 项目运作手册.中国统计出版社,1997
[37]曾显春.BOT 问题与对策.企业经济,1998. 2
[38]王晓刚.交通 PFI 模式的风险分担机制研究:[硕士学位论文].西南交通大学,2004
[39]范黎波.BOT 投资方式的运作及我们的对策.对外经济贸易大学学报,1999. 2
[40]白思俊.现代项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2002,275-276
[41]傅鸿源.BOT 项目风险评价方法的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996.10:55-58
[42]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.大型工程建设项目风险分析方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996(8)