基于TRANSCAD的公路建设可行性研究需求分析研究
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摘要
随着我国社会经济的快速发展,我国交通建设也不断加快着脚步,公路交通迎来快速发展时期。公路建设离不开可行性研究工作,做好可行性研究有三个重要内容,即交通量需求预测、技术方案研究和经济评价。而交通量需求预测是技术方案研究和经济评价的一个基础,所以交通量需求预测则是可行性研究的一个核心环节。由于目前有关公路建设可行性研究中有关交通量需求预测方面的工作存在有待改进的地方,本文基于此对其进行研究。
首先,从社会经济、人口、城市发展及交通战略、环境资源及土地利用等方面着手,分析了影响公路交通需求预测的因素。
其次,采用经典的四阶段模型,即交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分及交通分配等四个方面。研究了公路可行性研究中交通需求预测方法和模型。
再次,通过引入Trans CAD软件平台,从小区划分基本原理着手,提出虚拟小区的概念,同时对质心连杆的连接方法进行了研究,最终提出了基于Trans CAD的公路可行性研究预测方法。
最后,以青岛市新疆高架路和北京市发展路为例,进行了案例分析。
Nowdays, with the rapid development of economic, traffic problems are becoming more and more serious. The use of cars also become frequent. The feasibility study has three important functions: the traffic demand forecasting, research about economic evaluation and technology programs. Firstly the forecasting of traffic demand is a basis for the forecast of traffic demand .Secondly the research of technology programs and economic evaluation, because the traffic demand forecast is a important part of the feasibility study. Due to the current feasibility study about road-building works where there still has a room for further improvement, this paper are mainly based on this. .
Firstly, putting eyes on some aspects such as the socio-economic, population, urban development; transportation strategies, environmental resources and land use to analyze the impact factors of road traffic demand forecasting.
Secondly, using the classical four-stage model-- namely traffic generation, traffic distribution, transportation and traffic distribution. Study the feasibility of road traffic demand forecasting methods and models.
Thirdly, through the introduction of Trans CAD software platform, proceeding from the basic principles of cell division, it proposed the concept of virtual community, but to confront the heart of the connecting rod connection method has also been studied, and ultimately proposed Trans CAD-based prediction of highway feasibility study.
Finally, making the road of Qingdao and Xinjiang as a example, do a case study to prove the theory.
首先,从社会经济、人口、城市发展及交通战略、环境资源及土地利用等方面着手,分析了影响公路交通需求预测的因素。
其次,采用经典的四阶段模型,即交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分及交通分配等四个方面。研究了公路可行性研究中交通需求预测方法和模型。
再次,通过引入Trans CAD软件平台,从小区划分基本原理着手,提出虚拟小区的概念,同时对质心连杆的连接方法进行了研究,最终提出了基于Trans CAD的公路可行性研究预测方法。
最后,以青岛市新疆高架路和北京市发展路为例,进行了案例分析。
Nowdays, with the rapid development of economic, traffic problems are becoming more and more serious. The use of cars also become frequent. The feasibility study has three important functions: the traffic demand forecasting, research about economic evaluation and technology programs. Firstly the forecasting of traffic demand is a basis for the forecast of traffic demand .Secondly the research of technology programs and economic evaluation, because the traffic demand forecast is a important part of the feasibility study. Due to the current feasibility study about road-building works where there still has a room for further improvement, this paper are mainly based on this. .
Firstly, putting eyes on some aspects such as the socio-economic, population, urban development; transportation strategies, environmental resources and land use to analyze the impact factors of road traffic demand forecasting.
Secondly, using the classical four-stage model-- namely traffic generation, traffic distribution, transportation and traffic distribution. Study the feasibility of road traffic demand forecasting methods and models.
Thirdly, through the introduction of Trans CAD software platform, proceeding from the basic principles of cell division, it proposed the concept of virtual community, but to confront the heart of the connecting rod connection method has also been studied, and ultimately proposed Trans CAD-based prediction of highway feasibility study.
Finally, making the road of Qingdao and Xinjiang as a example, do a case study to prove the theory.
引文
[1] Yosef Sheffi. Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis with Mathematical Programming Methods. Massachusetts: Prentice Hall, 1984(3):27-30.
[2] Minyoung Park, Amelia Regan.Capacity Modeling in Transportation : A Multimodal Perspective, 2003,21(5):12-14.
[3] Janson B N..Dynamic trafic assignment for urban read network[J]. TRB, 1991,3(1): 12-15.
[4] Larry J.Lablanc, et a1.An eficient approach to solving theread network equilibrium assignment problem[J].Transport Res, 1976,9:909-918.
[5] Xiaoming Liu, HengWei, Hongzhi Guan. Repositioning Bicycling in Transportation Policies and Strategies from the Perspective of Mode Choice Changes in Large Chinese Cities. Paper Presented and Publishedat the TRB 82nd Annual Meetingin Washington, January2003:12-16.
[6] Timothy Oketch,P.Eng. Modeled Performance Characteristics of Heteorgeneous Traffic Streams Containing Non-motorized Vehicles. Transportation Research Board,82th Annual meeting,Washington DC, January, 2003:8-13.
[7] Eng Chuan Low , et al. A Plastic Package As MESFET 518 GHz Receiver Front End with On Chip Matching for ETC System. IEEE. Transaction on Microwave Theory and Techniques, 2000,48(2):202-211.
[8]刘树义,严新平.重力分布模型在Trans CAD中的应用研究.交通与计算机. 2005,23(2):64-68
[9]沙滨,袁振洲.基于Trans CAD中交通需求预测研究.山西科技. 2006,(1):24-28
[10]宋睿. Trans CAD在四阶段交通需求预测中的应用.交通科技与经济. 2011, (1):79-82
[11]张春栾.公路工程可行性研究方法探讨.河北交通科技. 2005,2(2):11-13
[12]刘洪昌.浅析Trans CAD在胶州交通需求预测中的应用.科技信息. 2009,(1):287-288
[13]刘建明,陈金玉.基于土地利用的交通需求预测.交通科技与经济. 2009,2 (2):117-119
[14]左志武. Trans CAD在公路交通诱增量预测中的研究.公路. 2010,6(6):168-170
[15]闻胜强. Trans CAD软件在高速公路交通量预测中的应用.中外公路. 2007,27(5):18-23
[16]宋振兴,刘国辉.高速公路交通需求预测方法研究.黑龙江交通科技. 2008,20(9):88-90
[17]刘树义,严新平.重力分布模型在Trans CAD中的应用研究.交通与计算机. 2005,23(2):64-68
[18]刘琼.贵州省“十二五”公路交通需求预测研究.武汉理工大学硕士论文. 2009
[19]邵春福.交通规划原理.北京:中国铁道出版社, 2004.171-208.
[20]陆化普,黄海军.交通规划理论前沿.北京:清华大学出版社, 2007.282-295
[21]陆化普.交通规划理论与方法.北京:清华大学出版社, 2006.173-206
[22]裴玉龙,洪萍,将贤才等.城市交通规划.北京:中国铁道出版社, 2007.45-48.
[23]任福田,刘小明,荣建等.交通工程学.北京:人民交通出版社, 2003.58-65,135-165.
[24]王炜,过秀成等.交通工程学.南京:东南大学出版社, 2000.10(1).
[25]何勇,唐琤琤等.道路交通安全技术.北京:人民交通出版, 2008.17-25
[26]王丽,刘小明,任福田.对大城市交通影响分析理论与方法的探讨. 10(5).25-30.
[27]高自友,任华玲.城市动态交通流分配模型与算法.北京:人民交通出版社,2005.18-20.
[28]严作人,孙立军.交通工程学.北京:人民交通出版社, 1994,3:43-48.
[29]郭中华.城市道路路段交通流特性分析与模型研究:(硕士学位论文).南京:东南大学, 2005.
[30]蒲琪,赵童.国内外交通影响分析理论与方法的比较.城市轨道研究, 2000.
[31]高自友,任华玲.城市动态交通流分配模型与算法.人民交通出版社, 2005,9(3):18-20.
[32]金治富.交通优化与组织:(硕士学位论文):北京:中国人民公安大学, 2003.
[33]邵正字.城市道路网通行能力最大通路类型优化分配.中南公路工程学报. 2004.
[34]杨兆升,张洪海.交通分配模型的评价与检测方法.吉林工业大学学报,2002.
[35]盖春英,裴玉龙.公路网路段交通量预测方法研究.公路交通科技,2002.
[36]马骥,裴玉龙.TransCad软件在城市交通规划中的开发与应用.哈尔滨建筑大学学, 2002,29(2):17-20.
[37]庄焰,吕慎.基于TransCAD的城市道路阻抗模型研究.深圳:深圳大学建筑与土木工程学院,2005, 13-5.
[38] Gao Z Y,SongY F,Si B F.Urban transportantion equilibrium network design problem:theory andmethod [M].Beijing:China Railway Publishing House,2002.
[39]陈祥.交通量-速度-费用模型中路阻函数的修正.上海:上海市城市建设设计研究院,2008,6.
[40]王炜,邓卫,杨琪等著.公路网规划建设与管理方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2008,6:89-23.
[41]张晓东.TransCAD软件在交通量预测中的应用.北京:北京理工大学,2008,6-9.
[42]姚军,梁青海.TRANSCAD软件在路网规划中的应用.长春:吉林省公路勘察设计院,2008,4.
[43] Janson B N,Robles J.Quasi-Continuous Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model[K].Transportation Research Record,1995.1493:199-206.
[44] Janson B N,DYMIN.A Dynamic User-Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Model with Intersection Traffic Control and Queuing Delays[R]. Transportation Research Center,Department of Civil Engineering,University of Colorado at Denver,2001.
[45] Peder Axensten.Modeling and Visualizing Short Term Impact of a Nuclear Accident on Transportation Flows[R].CERUM Northern Studies Working Paper,2001.
[46] [3]KLD Associates.Formulations of the DYNEV and I-DYNEV traffic simulation models used in ESF[R].Washington D.C.:Federal Emergency Management Agency,1984.
[47] [4]Hobeika A G,Jamei MASSVAC,B.A model for calculating evacuation times under natural disaster[C]// Proc.,Conf.Computer Simulation in Emergency Planning,Society of Computer Simulation,La Jolla,Calif.1985 (15):5-15.
[48] Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).Oak Ridge evacuation modeling system ( OREMS ) user's guide[K].Center for Transportation Analysis, ORNL, Oak Ridge,Tenn.1999.
[49] Edmond Chin-Ping Chang.Traffic Simulation for Effective Emergency Evacuation[OL].http://www.ictpaweb.org/publica tion/NCA/conferean03/Proceeding/074.pdf.
[50] Janson B N.Dynamic Traffic Assignment for Urban Road Networks[J]. Transportation Research,1991,25B
[2] Minyoung Park, Amelia Regan.Capacity Modeling in Transportation : A Multimodal Perspective, 2003,21(5):12-14.
[3] Janson B N..Dynamic trafic assignment for urban read network[J]. TRB, 1991,3(1): 12-15.
[4] Larry J.Lablanc, et a1.An eficient approach to solving theread network equilibrium assignment problem[J].Transport Res, 1976,9:909-918.
[5] Xiaoming Liu, HengWei, Hongzhi Guan. Repositioning Bicycling in Transportation Policies and Strategies from the Perspective of Mode Choice Changes in Large Chinese Cities. Paper Presented and Publishedat the TRB 82nd Annual Meetingin Washington, January2003:12-16.
[6] Timothy Oketch,P.Eng. Modeled Performance Characteristics of Heteorgeneous Traffic Streams Containing Non-motorized Vehicles. Transportation Research Board,82th Annual meeting,Washington DC, January, 2003:8-13.
[7] Eng Chuan Low , et al. A Plastic Package As MESFET 518 GHz Receiver Front End with On Chip Matching for ETC System. IEEE. Transaction on Microwave Theory and Techniques, 2000,48(2):202-211.
[8]刘树义,严新平.重力分布模型在Trans CAD中的应用研究.交通与计算机. 2005,23(2):64-68
[9]沙滨,袁振洲.基于Trans CAD中交通需求预测研究.山西科技. 2006,(1):24-28
[10]宋睿. Trans CAD在四阶段交通需求预测中的应用.交通科技与经济. 2011, (1):79-82
[11]张春栾.公路工程可行性研究方法探讨.河北交通科技. 2005,2(2):11-13
[12]刘洪昌.浅析Trans CAD在胶州交通需求预测中的应用.科技信息. 2009,(1):287-288
[13]刘建明,陈金玉.基于土地利用的交通需求预测.交通科技与经济. 2009,2 (2):117-119
[14]左志武. Trans CAD在公路交通诱增量预测中的研究.公路. 2010,6(6):168-170
[15]闻胜强. Trans CAD软件在高速公路交通量预测中的应用.中外公路. 2007,27(5):18-23
[16]宋振兴,刘国辉.高速公路交通需求预测方法研究.黑龙江交通科技. 2008,20(9):88-90
[17]刘树义,严新平.重力分布模型在Trans CAD中的应用研究.交通与计算机. 2005,23(2):64-68
[18]刘琼.贵州省“十二五”公路交通需求预测研究.武汉理工大学硕士论文. 2009
[19]邵春福.交通规划原理.北京:中国铁道出版社, 2004.171-208.
[20]陆化普,黄海军.交通规划理论前沿.北京:清华大学出版社, 2007.282-295
[21]陆化普.交通规划理论与方法.北京:清华大学出版社, 2006.173-206
[22]裴玉龙,洪萍,将贤才等.城市交通规划.北京:中国铁道出版社, 2007.45-48.
[23]任福田,刘小明,荣建等.交通工程学.北京:人民交通出版社, 2003.58-65,135-165.
[24]王炜,过秀成等.交通工程学.南京:东南大学出版社, 2000.10(1).
[25]何勇,唐琤琤等.道路交通安全技术.北京:人民交通出版, 2008.17-25
[26]王丽,刘小明,任福田.对大城市交通影响分析理论与方法的探讨. 10(5).25-30.
[27]高自友,任华玲.城市动态交通流分配模型与算法.北京:人民交通出版社,2005.18-20.
[28]严作人,孙立军.交通工程学.北京:人民交通出版社, 1994,3:43-48.
[29]郭中华.城市道路路段交通流特性分析与模型研究:(硕士学位论文).南京:东南大学, 2005.
[30]蒲琪,赵童.国内外交通影响分析理论与方法的比较.城市轨道研究, 2000.
[31]高自友,任华玲.城市动态交通流分配模型与算法.人民交通出版社, 2005,9(3):18-20.
[32]金治富.交通优化与组织:(硕士学位论文):北京:中国人民公安大学, 2003.
[33]邵正字.城市道路网通行能力最大通路类型优化分配.中南公路工程学报. 2004.
[34]杨兆升,张洪海.交通分配模型的评价与检测方法.吉林工业大学学报,2002.
[35]盖春英,裴玉龙.公路网路段交通量预测方法研究.公路交通科技,2002.
[36]马骥,裴玉龙.TransCad软件在城市交通规划中的开发与应用.哈尔滨建筑大学学, 2002,29(2):17-20.
[37]庄焰,吕慎.基于TransCAD的城市道路阻抗模型研究.深圳:深圳大学建筑与土木工程学院,2005, 13-5.
[38] Gao Z Y,SongY F,Si B F.Urban transportantion equilibrium network design problem:theory andmethod [M].Beijing:China Railway Publishing House,2002.
[39]陈祥.交通量-速度-费用模型中路阻函数的修正.上海:上海市城市建设设计研究院,2008,6.
[40]王炜,邓卫,杨琪等著.公路网规划建设与管理方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2008,6:89-23.
[41]张晓东.TransCAD软件在交通量预测中的应用.北京:北京理工大学,2008,6-9.
[42]姚军,梁青海.TRANSCAD软件在路网规划中的应用.长春:吉林省公路勘察设计院,2008,4.
[43] Janson B N,Robles J.Quasi-Continuous Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model[K].Transportation Research Record,1995.1493:199-206.
[44] Janson B N,DYMIN.A Dynamic User-Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Model with Intersection Traffic Control and Queuing Delays[R]. Transportation Research Center,Department of Civil Engineering,University of Colorado at Denver,2001.
[45] Peder Axensten.Modeling and Visualizing Short Term Impact of a Nuclear Accident on Transportation Flows[R].CERUM Northern Studies Working Paper,2001.
[46] [3]KLD Associates.Formulations of the DYNEV and I-DYNEV traffic simulation models used in ESF[R].Washington D.C.:Federal Emergency Management Agency,1984.
[47] [4]Hobeika A G,Jamei MASSVAC,B.A model for calculating evacuation times under natural disaster[C]// Proc.,Conf.Computer Simulation in Emergency Planning,Society of Computer Simulation,La Jolla,Calif.1985 (15):5-15.
[48] Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).Oak Ridge evacuation modeling system ( OREMS ) user's guide[K].Center for Transportation Analysis, ORNL, Oak Ridge,Tenn.1999.
[49] Edmond Chin-Ping Chang.Traffic Simulation for Effective Emergency Evacuation[OL].http://www.ictpaweb.org/publica tion/NCA/conferean03/Proceeding/074.pdf.
[50] Janson B N.Dynamic Traffic Assignment for Urban Road Networks[J]. Transportation Research,1991,25B