巨灾补偿基金风险及其管理研究
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摘要
目前全球处于气候变化和地壳频繁运动的时期,我国最近几年巨灾频发,使得巨灾风险分散制度和补偿体系的建立显得更加迫切。我国保险行业对人民的生产生活发挥着举足轻重的风险保障作用,目前也处于不断向前发展的阶段。但是,保险行业的整体经营实力、保险公司的治理和管理能力以及精算部门的风险定价水平,仍然存在着与成熟保险市场不小的距离。特别就巨灾保险业务的开展来看,我国尚未建立也无法套用发达国家现成的巨灾保险以及巨灾保险基金的运作模式。
潘席龙(2009)认为,根据我国巨灾补偿制度的当前状况、保险业巨灾保险产品发展情况以及政府体制的特殊国情,倡议建立巨灾补偿基金来分散巨灾风险和提供风险保障。这一构想参考了各个国家现有的巨灾补偿制度的优点和长处,并结合巨灾保险基金、证券投资基金、社会保障基金等多种基金组织特征与运行模式。巨灾补偿基金公司处于整个巨灾补偿体系的中心地位,负责运行拟建立的巨灾补偿基金。该基金公司是在政府框架下建立,虽然受政府控制和监管,但是一个管理上相对独立和市场化的企业。
基金的资金来源与管理包括两个部分,政府资金的投入设政府资金账户管理,而普通投资者购买基金份额募集的资金设社会资金账户管理,两者相互独立。基金公司按政府设定目标及标准管理政府资金账户,同时按商业标准和市场化目标管理社会资金账户,但两个账户之间存在关联。两者关系为,社会资金账户提取利润转移到政府资金账户,具体操作为于每年年末时,根据事先确定好的比例如x%向政府资金账户提转。当巨灾发生对基金份额持有人进行补偿时,灾区的基金份额持有人能获得y倍的偿付,其中社会资金账户偿付1倍的权益,作为平时提取利润的回报政府资金账户偿付(y-1)倍权益。这相当于社会资金账户和政府资金账户之间设立了一种特定的关系,这种关系可以看作是一份互换协议或者一种保险。也就是说两者关系体现为基金份额的持有人用x%的现金流与政府交换(y-1)倍的巨灾补偿,而现金流的具体金额与巨灾是否发生都是不确定的。当然政府资金账户的巨灾补偿基本上是会大于补偿基金持有人同期或累积提转的利润,但由于巨灾补偿基金分不同的注册地进行登记,而巨灾通常不会同时发生在所有的注册地；如此一来政府资金账户就可以把巨灾风险在跨空间、跨时间以及跨险种分散,比其他保险产品更具备提供风险保障的优势。
除此之外,巨灾补偿基金还有一个重要优势,就是基金设计为半封闭半开放的形式,除非巨灾发生否则不得赎回。巨灾补偿基金借鉴了LOF(上市型开放式基金)的运作模式,但有所修改,也就是说基金份额没有到期日,但是能在二级市场上进行自由交易与转让,于是把流动性与收益性很好地统一起来。这种对开放式基金与封闭式基金的综合,有助于巨灾补偿基金稳定地运营,保证了可持续性；同时又能吸引投资者,增加投资收益,使得市场也能保持一定的活跃程度。政府资金账户和社会资金账户相互独立设置,让基金本身成了社会公益性和商业盈利性的结合体,二者利益可以兼顾。这样可以利用政府信用更好地筹集资金,降低资金成本,同时又避免了政府管理带来的低效率。最终巨灾补偿基金的目标是通过证券投资市场进行巨灾风险的分散与防范,聚集全社会的资金来增加抵御巨灾风险,也为多层次的资本市场建设开拓新领域。
本文围绕巨灾补偿基金风险及其管理这个主题,首先介绍风险的概念、巨灾的概念与类型、巨灾风险分散的理论研究以及巨灾补偿基金的构想；其次,在此基础上,进行了巨灾补偿基金风险的具体分析,主要涉及巨灾风险、补偿风险与投资风险。最后,给出本文的结论与一些建议。所以本文的思路及结构安排如下：
第一章是绪论,该章先介绍风险、金融风险以及巨灾风险的含义与特征,然后讨论了巨灾风险分散和巨灾性金融工具风险的理论研究,接着在前面的基础上介绍了巨灾补偿基金的构想,包括该基金的组织结构及运作模式。最后说明了本文的研究内容与主要工作。
第二章介绍巨灾补偿基金风险的内涵与类型。首先从巨灾补偿基金风险的内涵出发,介绍内涵包括的风险因素、风险事件以及风险结果；然后分别简要介绍了三种风险形式,分别是巨灾风险、补偿风险以及投资风险。这三种风险及其管理分别在第三、四、五章中具体阐述。
第三章介绍巨灾补偿基金的巨灾风险。首先阐释了巨灾风险的两种类型：常态式风险与黑天鹅式风险,其次介绍了巨灾风险的管理,从基金份额的注册地原则与持有期限制的角度进行了分析。
第四章介绍巨灾补偿基金的补偿风险。首先介绍了补偿风险的类型,包括政策风险、委托一代理风险以及集中补偿风险,然后针对性提出了上述风险的一些管理思路和对策,如某一注册地限制最高补偿额、单一基金份额持有人的持额限制、补偿额的加速累退规则。
第五章介绍巨灾补偿基金的投资风险。首先介绍了三类投资风险,同时也是一般性投资基金共有的风险,即市场风险、操作风险以及流动性风险,然后简要研究了投资风险的管理。
第六章给出主要结论与建议。作为一个构想中的基金,本文对巨灾补偿基金的各种风险作了一个较为系统性的分析,并对其风险管理进行了梳理,给出了一些风险管理方案。
本文的创新包括以下两个方面：
第一,较为系统地研究了巨灾补偿基金风险,分析了其风险的三种主要形式,分别是巨灾风险、补偿风险以及投资风险。特别对巨灾风险与补偿风险这两种特有风险展开了讨论与分析,其中细分风险中提出黑天鹅式风险与集中补偿风险,这两类风险正是该基金核心的特殊风险。
第二,通过巨灾补偿基金风险研究考察其风险管理,提出防范与控制措施,包括法律法规的完善、政策扶持与补偿机制设计；以及内部管理制度的建立健全。其中较为重要新提法有基金份额的注册地登记原则、按注册地划分的持有期限制以及特定的补偿机制设计。
Currently global climate changes dramatically and the world is in a period of crustal movement. Catastrophe happens frequently in China in recent years, which makes the establishment of catastrophe risk distribution and compensation system even more urgent. Due to strength of the insurance industry, the business operation of insurance companies and the level of risk pricing of the actuarial department, our country do not have the capacity to establish a sound system of catastrophe insurance and catastrophic insurance fund.
Xilong Pan (2009) points that, according to the current situation of catastrophe compensation in our country, it's time to establish a special kind of fund, called Catastrophe Compensation Fund, to distribute risk all over the world and provide catastrophic risk protection to China. The fund has two accounts, including government capital account and social capital account. There are some relation and arrangements between the two accounts.
This paper focuses on the risks and its management of Catastrophe Compensation Fund. At First it introduces the concept of risk, the concept and types of catastrophe, the theory of catastrophe risk distribution and the blueprint of the construction of Catastrophe Compensation Fund. Secondly, a detailed analysis of the risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund is discussed, mainly focused on catastrophic risk, compensatory risk and investment risk. Finally, the paper concludes with some recommendations. The clue and structure of this paper is as follows:
ChapterⅠis an introduction, the chapter introduces risk, financial risk and the meaning and characteristics of catastrophe risk, then discusses the theory of catastrophe risk distribution. At last, it introduces the main ideas of Catastrophe Compensation Fund of China (CCFC).
ChapterⅡintroduces the connotation and types of the risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅢdescribes the catastrophic risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅣpresents the compensatory risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅤdescribes the investment risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅥgives the main conclusions and recommendations.
潘席龙(2009)认为,根据我国巨灾补偿制度的当前状况、保险业巨灾保险产品发展情况以及政府体制的特殊国情,倡议建立巨灾补偿基金来分散巨灾风险和提供风险保障。这一构想参考了各个国家现有的巨灾补偿制度的优点和长处,并结合巨灾保险基金、证券投资基金、社会保障基金等多种基金组织特征与运行模式。巨灾补偿基金公司处于整个巨灾补偿体系的中心地位,负责运行拟建立的巨灾补偿基金。该基金公司是在政府框架下建立,虽然受政府控制和监管,但是一个管理上相对独立和市场化的企业。
基金的资金来源与管理包括两个部分,政府资金的投入设政府资金账户管理,而普通投资者购买基金份额募集的资金设社会资金账户管理,两者相互独立。基金公司按政府设定目标及标准管理政府资金账户,同时按商业标准和市场化目标管理社会资金账户,但两个账户之间存在关联。两者关系为,社会资金账户提取利润转移到政府资金账户,具体操作为于每年年末时,根据事先确定好的比例如x%向政府资金账户提转。当巨灾发生对基金份额持有人进行补偿时,灾区的基金份额持有人能获得y倍的偿付,其中社会资金账户偿付1倍的权益,作为平时提取利润的回报政府资金账户偿付(y-1)倍权益。这相当于社会资金账户和政府资金账户之间设立了一种特定的关系,这种关系可以看作是一份互换协议或者一种保险。也就是说两者关系体现为基金份额的持有人用x%的现金流与政府交换(y-1)倍的巨灾补偿,而现金流的具体金额与巨灾是否发生都是不确定的。当然政府资金账户的巨灾补偿基本上是会大于补偿基金持有人同期或累积提转的利润,但由于巨灾补偿基金分不同的注册地进行登记,而巨灾通常不会同时发生在所有的注册地；如此一来政府资金账户就可以把巨灾风险在跨空间、跨时间以及跨险种分散,比其他保险产品更具备提供风险保障的优势。
除此之外,巨灾补偿基金还有一个重要优势,就是基金设计为半封闭半开放的形式,除非巨灾发生否则不得赎回。巨灾补偿基金借鉴了LOF(上市型开放式基金)的运作模式,但有所修改,也就是说基金份额没有到期日,但是能在二级市场上进行自由交易与转让,于是把流动性与收益性很好地统一起来。这种对开放式基金与封闭式基金的综合,有助于巨灾补偿基金稳定地运营,保证了可持续性；同时又能吸引投资者,增加投资收益,使得市场也能保持一定的活跃程度。政府资金账户和社会资金账户相互独立设置,让基金本身成了社会公益性和商业盈利性的结合体,二者利益可以兼顾。这样可以利用政府信用更好地筹集资金,降低资金成本,同时又避免了政府管理带来的低效率。最终巨灾补偿基金的目标是通过证券投资市场进行巨灾风险的分散与防范,聚集全社会的资金来增加抵御巨灾风险,也为多层次的资本市场建设开拓新领域。
本文围绕巨灾补偿基金风险及其管理这个主题,首先介绍风险的概念、巨灾的概念与类型、巨灾风险分散的理论研究以及巨灾补偿基金的构想；其次,在此基础上,进行了巨灾补偿基金风险的具体分析,主要涉及巨灾风险、补偿风险与投资风险。最后,给出本文的结论与一些建议。所以本文的思路及结构安排如下：
第一章是绪论,该章先介绍风险、金融风险以及巨灾风险的含义与特征,然后讨论了巨灾风险分散和巨灾性金融工具风险的理论研究,接着在前面的基础上介绍了巨灾补偿基金的构想,包括该基金的组织结构及运作模式。最后说明了本文的研究内容与主要工作。
第二章介绍巨灾补偿基金风险的内涵与类型。首先从巨灾补偿基金风险的内涵出发,介绍内涵包括的风险因素、风险事件以及风险结果；然后分别简要介绍了三种风险形式,分别是巨灾风险、补偿风险以及投资风险。这三种风险及其管理分别在第三、四、五章中具体阐述。
第三章介绍巨灾补偿基金的巨灾风险。首先阐释了巨灾风险的两种类型：常态式风险与黑天鹅式风险,其次介绍了巨灾风险的管理,从基金份额的注册地原则与持有期限制的角度进行了分析。
第四章介绍巨灾补偿基金的补偿风险。首先介绍了补偿风险的类型,包括政策风险、委托一代理风险以及集中补偿风险,然后针对性提出了上述风险的一些管理思路和对策,如某一注册地限制最高补偿额、单一基金份额持有人的持额限制、补偿额的加速累退规则。
第五章介绍巨灾补偿基金的投资风险。首先介绍了三类投资风险,同时也是一般性投资基金共有的风险,即市场风险、操作风险以及流动性风险,然后简要研究了投资风险的管理。
第六章给出主要结论与建议。作为一个构想中的基金,本文对巨灾补偿基金的各种风险作了一个较为系统性的分析,并对其风险管理进行了梳理,给出了一些风险管理方案。
本文的创新包括以下两个方面：
第一,较为系统地研究了巨灾补偿基金风险,分析了其风险的三种主要形式,分别是巨灾风险、补偿风险以及投资风险。特别对巨灾风险与补偿风险这两种特有风险展开了讨论与分析,其中细分风险中提出黑天鹅式风险与集中补偿风险,这两类风险正是该基金核心的特殊风险。
第二,通过巨灾补偿基金风险研究考察其风险管理,提出防范与控制措施,包括法律法规的完善、政策扶持与补偿机制设计；以及内部管理制度的建立健全。其中较为重要新提法有基金份额的注册地登记原则、按注册地划分的持有期限制以及特定的补偿机制设计。
Currently global climate changes dramatically and the world is in a period of crustal movement. Catastrophe happens frequently in China in recent years, which makes the establishment of catastrophe risk distribution and compensation system even more urgent. Due to strength of the insurance industry, the business operation of insurance companies and the level of risk pricing of the actuarial department, our country do not have the capacity to establish a sound system of catastrophe insurance and catastrophic insurance fund.
Xilong Pan (2009) points that, according to the current situation of catastrophe compensation in our country, it's time to establish a special kind of fund, called Catastrophe Compensation Fund, to distribute risk all over the world and provide catastrophic risk protection to China. The fund has two accounts, including government capital account and social capital account. There are some relation and arrangements between the two accounts.
This paper focuses on the risks and its management of Catastrophe Compensation Fund. At First it introduces the concept of risk, the concept and types of catastrophe, the theory of catastrophe risk distribution and the blueprint of the construction of Catastrophe Compensation Fund. Secondly, a detailed analysis of the risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund is discussed, mainly focused on catastrophic risk, compensatory risk and investment risk. Finally, the paper concludes with some recommendations. The clue and structure of this paper is as follows:
ChapterⅠis an introduction, the chapter introduces risk, financial risk and the meaning and characteristics of catastrophe risk, then discusses the theory of catastrophe risk distribution. At last, it introduces the main ideas of Catastrophe Compensation Fund of China (CCFC).
ChapterⅡintroduces the connotation and types of the risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅢdescribes the catastrophic risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅣpresents the compensatory risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅤdescribes the investment risk of Catastrophe Compensation Fund.
ChapterⅥgives the main conclusions and recommendations.
引文
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①张宗军.基于公共性基础的巨灾保险制度研究[J].金融发展研究,2008(7)
② Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell. Catastrophe Insurance, Capital Markets, and Uninsurable Risks[J]. The Journal of Risk and Insurance,1997, Vol.64, No.2
③ Paul A. Raschky, Hannelore Weck-Hannemann. Charity hazard--A real hazard to natural disaster insurance?[J]. Environmental Hazards,2007,7(4)
④ Linneoroth Baye, Joanne and Aniello Amendola. "Global Change, Catastrophic Risk and Loss Spreading"[EB]. Workihg Paper of IIASA, Laxenburg, Austrlia.2000
① Catastrophe insurance triggers:What is the Best Fit for the Asia-Pacific? David Simmons, ReMetrics, Benfield Group Limited,2007
②谢世清.建立我国巨灾保险基金的思考[J].上海金融,2009,(04)
③ John D. Pollner. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk Financing and Pooled Insurance Structures [M]. World Bank Technical, Paper, No.495, Washington, D.C.2001.5
④ Harrington, S.E., Niehaus, G. Basis risk with PCS catastrophe insurance derivative contracts [J]. Journal of Risk and Insurance,1999,66
①张雪峰.保险风险证券化视角的巨灾风险管理探析.兰州大学学报(社会科学版).2010(7)139-143
②陶正如,陶夏新.巨灾保险衍生品：自然灾害学报.2007(8)Vol16.No4
①胥莉.《我国证券投资基金风险及其防范研究》.西北工业大学硕士论文.2001.3
①中国可持续发展信息网,自然灾害灾度:http://www.sdinfo.net.cn/
②郑功成.中国灾情论[M].中国劳动社会保障出版社,2009.9
①郭强主编.中国减灾报告[M].中国时代经济出版社,2008.1
①《中华人民共和国防震减灾法(修订草案)》的说明.中央人民政府网站：http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2008-10/29/content_1134041.htm
[1]Borch,K.Eeonomics of Insurance.Amsterdam:North Holland,1989
[2]Munich Re. Topics Geo Natural catastrophes 2008:Analyses, assessments, positions.2009(4)
[3]Swiss Re, sigma. Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2008:North America and Asia suffer heavy losses. No.2/2009
[4]Denuit,M., Dhaene, J.&Van Wouve, The Economics of Insurance:A Review and Some Recent Developments, Bulletin of the Swiss Association of Actuaries,1999, (1):137-175
[5]Luan,C., Insurance Premium Calculations with Anticipated Utility Theory, ASTIN Bullentin,2001, (7):27-39
[6]Cummins, J.D., Doherty, N., Lo, A.. Can insurers pay for the'big one' Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,2002,26(2-3)
[7]Niehaus,G,The Allocation of Catastrophe Risk, Journal of Banking and Finance 2002,26:585-596
[8]Kenneth A. Froot. The market for catastrophe risk:A clinical examination [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2000,60(2-3)
[9]Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell. Catastrophe Insurance, Capital Markets, and Uninsurable Risks [J]. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 1997, Vol.64, No.2
[10]Harris Schlesinger. Decomposing catastrophic risk [J].Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,1999(24)
[11]Robert Goshay,Richard Sandor.An Inquiry into the Feasibility of a Reinsurance Futures Market.Journal of Business Finance,1973,(2):56-66
[12]Hoyt,R.E. and K.A. McCullough. Catastrophe Insurance Options"Are They Zero-Beta Assets. Jounral of insurance Issues,1999,22.2:147-163
[13]Paul A. Raschky, Hannelore Weck-Hannemann. Charity hazard--A real hazard to natural disaster insurance?[J]. Environmental Hazards,2007,7(4)
[14]Linneoroth Baye, Joanne and Aniello Amendola. "Global Change, Catastrophic Risk and Loss Spreading"[EB]. Workihg Paper of IIASA, Laxenburg, Austrlia.2000
[15]Catastrophe insurance triggers:What is the Best Fit for the Asia-Pacific? David Simmons, ReMetrics, Benfield Group Limited,2007
[16]John D. Pollner. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk Financing and Pooled Insurance Structures [M]. World Bank Technical Paper, No.495, Washington, D.C.2001.5
[17]Harrington, S.E., Niehaus, G. Basis risk with PCS catastrophe insurance derivative contracts [J]. Journal of Risk and Insurance,1999,66
[18]潘席龙.《中国巨灾补偿基金研究》.四川省哲学社会科学项目青年项目(SC08C13).2009
[19]胥莉.《我国证券投资基金风险及其防范研究》.西北工业大学硕士论文.2001.3
[20]潘席龙：《固定收益证券分析》,西南财经大学出版社,2007.4
[21]张宗军.基于公共性基础的巨灾保险制度研究[J].金融发展研究,2008(7)
[22]孙祁祥,郑伟,孙立明,李海涛,锁凌燕.中国巨灾风险管理：再保险的角色.金融与保险,2004,(12)120-125
[23]谢世清；建立我国巨灾保险基金的思考[J].上海金融,2009,(04)
[24]潘席龙,陈东.设立我国巨灾补偿基金研究[J].西南金融,2009(1)
[25]张旭升.中国巨灾风险暴露与巨灾保险赔付不对称实证.求索,2010(3)51-53
[26]李凯：《我国巨灾保险共同体的构建于策略研究》,《财会研究》,2010年第7期
[27]张雪峰.保险风险证券化视角的巨灾风险管理探析.兰州大学学报(社会科学版).2010(7)139-143
[28]周志刚.风险可保性理论与巨灾风险的国家管理[D].复旦大学,2005
[29]谭湘渝,蒋毅.巨灾保险制度的经济学分析与模式选择[J].生产力研究,2009,(24)
[30]陈和,申明浩.中国巨灾保险制度初探及国外经验借鉴[J].国际经贸探索,2010,(03)
[31]胡礼文；试谈对巨灾风险的对策——兼谈巨灾保险基金的建立[J].金融与经济,2010,(04)
[32]谢世清.加勒比巨灾风险保险基金的运作及其借鉴[J].财经科学,2010,(01)
[33]池晶.论政府在中国巨灾风险管理体系中的角色定位[J].社会科学战线,2010,(11)
[34]陶正如,陶夏新.巨灾保险衍生品.自然灾害学报.2007(8)Vol.16 No.4
①北美精算师协会SOA:http://www.soa.org/
②美国保险服务局,财产索赔服务部门http://www.iso.com/Products/Property-Claim-Services/PCS-Catastrophe-Serial-Numbers.html
③ Munich Re. Topics Geo Natural catastrophes 2008:Analyses, assessments, positions.2009(4):44
④张林源、杨锡金.论有效减灾与自然灾变过程[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1994(4)
⑤ Swiss Re, sigma. Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2008:North America and Asia suffer heavy losses. NO.2/2009
①张宗军.基于公共性基础的巨灾保险制度研究[J].金融发展研究,2008(7)
①潘席龙.《中国巨灾补偿基金研究》.四川省哲学社会科学项目青年项目(SC08C13).2009
① Borch,K.Eeonomics of Insurance. Amsterdam:North Holland,1989
② Denuit,M.,Dhaene,J.&Van Wouve,The Economics of Insurance:A Review and Some Recent Developments,Bulletin of the Swiss Association of Actuaries,1999,(1):137-175
③ Luan,C.,Insurance Premium Calculations with Anticipated Utility Theory, ASTIN Bullentin,2001,(7):27-39
④ Cummins, J.D., Doherty, N., Lo, A.. Can insurers pay for the'big one'Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,2002,26(2-3)
① Niehaus,G,The Allocation of Catastrophe Risk, Journal of Banking and Finance 2002,26:585-596
② Kenneth A. Froot. The market for catastrophe risk:A clinical examination [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2000,60(2-3)
③张旭升.中国巨灾风险暴露与巨灾保险赔付不对称实证.求索,2010(3)51-53
④孙祁祥,郑伟,孙立明,李海涛,锁凌燕.中国巨灾风险管理：再保险的角色.金融与保险,2004,(12)120-125
③ Gollier,C. Insurability [M]. University of Toulouse,2002
① Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell. Catastrophe Insurance, Capital Markets, and Uninsurable Risks [J]. The Journal of Risk and Insurance,1997,Vol.64, No.2
② Harris Schlesinger. Decomposing catastrophic risk [J].Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,1999(24)
③ Robert Goshay,Richard Sandor.An Inquiry into the Feasibility of a Reinsurance Futures Market.Journal of Business Finance,1973,(2):56-66
④oyt,R.E. and K. A. McCullough. Catastrophe Insurance Options"Are They Zero-Beta Assets.Jounral of insurance Issues,1999,22.2:147-163
⑤张雪峰.保险风险证券化视角的巨灾风险管理探析.兰州大学学报(社会科学版).2010(7)139-143
①张宗军.基于公共性基础的巨灾保险制度研究[J].金融发展研究,2008(7)
② Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell. Catastrophe Insurance, Capital Markets, and Uninsurable Risks[J]. The Journal of Risk and Insurance,1997, Vol.64, No.2
③ Paul A. Raschky, Hannelore Weck-Hannemann. Charity hazard--A real hazard to natural disaster insurance?[J]. Environmental Hazards,2007,7(4)
④ Linneoroth Baye, Joanne and Aniello Amendola. "Global Change, Catastrophic Risk and Loss Spreading"[EB]. Workihg Paper of IIASA, Laxenburg, Austrlia.2000
① Catastrophe insurance triggers:What is the Best Fit for the Asia-Pacific? David Simmons, ReMetrics, Benfield Group Limited,2007
②谢世清.建立我国巨灾保险基金的思考[J].上海金融,2009,(04)
③ John D. Pollner. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk Financing and Pooled Insurance Structures [M]. World Bank Technical, Paper, No.495, Washington, D.C.2001.5
④ Harrington, S.E., Niehaus, G. Basis risk with PCS catastrophe insurance derivative contracts [J]. Journal of Risk and Insurance,1999,66
①张雪峰.保险风险证券化视角的巨灾风险管理探析.兰州大学学报(社会科学版).2010(7)139-143
②陶正如,陶夏新.巨灾保险衍生品：自然灾害学报.2007(8)Vol16.No4
①胥莉.《我国证券投资基金风险及其防范研究》.西北工业大学硕士论文.2001.3
①中国可持续发展信息网,自然灾害灾度:http://www.sdinfo.net.cn/
②郑功成.中国灾情论[M].中国劳动社会保障出版社,2009.9
①郭强主编.中国减灾报告[M].中国时代经济出版社,2008.1
①《中华人民共和国防震减灾法(修订草案)》的说明.中央人民政府网站：http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2008-10/29/content_1134041.htm
[1]Borch,K.Eeonomics of Insurance.Amsterdam:North Holland,1989
[2]Munich Re. Topics Geo Natural catastrophes 2008:Analyses, assessments, positions.2009(4)
[3]Swiss Re, sigma. Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2008:North America and Asia suffer heavy losses. No.2/2009
[4]Denuit,M., Dhaene, J.&Van Wouve, The Economics of Insurance:A Review and Some Recent Developments, Bulletin of the Swiss Association of Actuaries,1999, (1):137-175
[5]Luan,C., Insurance Premium Calculations with Anticipated Utility Theory, ASTIN Bullentin,2001, (7):27-39
[6]Cummins, J.D., Doherty, N., Lo, A.. Can insurers pay for the'big one' Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,2002,26(2-3)
[7]Niehaus,G,The Allocation of Catastrophe Risk, Journal of Banking and Finance 2002,26:585-596
[8]Kenneth A. Froot. The market for catastrophe risk:A clinical examination [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2000,60(2-3)
[9]Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell. Catastrophe Insurance, Capital Markets, and Uninsurable Risks [J]. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 1997, Vol.64, No.2
[10]Harris Schlesinger. Decomposing catastrophic risk [J].Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,1999(24)
[11]Robert Goshay,Richard Sandor.An Inquiry into the Feasibility of a Reinsurance Futures Market.Journal of Business Finance,1973,(2):56-66
[12]Hoyt,R.E. and K.A. McCullough. Catastrophe Insurance Options"Are They Zero-Beta Assets. Jounral of insurance Issues,1999,22.2:147-163
[13]Paul A. Raschky, Hannelore Weck-Hannemann. Charity hazard--A real hazard to natural disaster insurance?[J]. Environmental Hazards,2007,7(4)
[14]Linneoroth Baye, Joanne and Aniello Amendola. "Global Change, Catastrophic Risk and Loss Spreading"[EB]. Workihg Paper of IIASA, Laxenburg, Austrlia.2000
[15]Catastrophe insurance triggers:What is the Best Fit for the Asia-Pacific? David Simmons, ReMetrics, Benfield Group Limited,2007
[16]John D. Pollner. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk Financing and Pooled Insurance Structures [M]. World Bank Technical Paper, No.495, Washington, D.C.2001.5
[17]Harrington, S.E., Niehaus, G. Basis risk with PCS catastrophe insurance derivative contracts [J]. Journal of Risk and Insurance,1999,66
[18]潘席龙.《中国巨灾补偿基金研究》.四川省哲学社会科学项目青年项目(SC08C13).2009
[19]胥莉.《我国证券投资基金风险及其防范研究》.西北工业大学硕士论文.2001.3
[20]潘席龙：《固定收益证券分析》,西南财经大学出版社,2007.4
[21]张宗军.基于公共性基础的巨灾保险制度研究[J].金融发展研究,2008(7)
[22]孙祁祥,郑伟,孙立明,李海涛,锁凌燕.中国巨灾风险管理：再保险的角色.金融与保险,2004,(12)120-125
[23]谢世清；建立我国巨灾保险基金的思考[J].上海金融,2009,(04)
[24]潘席龙,陈东.设立我国巨灾补偿基金研究[J].西南金融,2009(1)
[25]张旭升.中国巨灾风险暴露与巨灾保险赔付不对称实证.求索,2010(3)51-53
[26]李凯：《我国巨灾保险共同体的构建于策略研究》,《财会研究》,2010年第7期
[27]张雪峰.保险风险证券化视角的巨灾风险管理探析.兰州大学学报(社会科学版).2010(7)139-143
[28]周志刚.风险可保性理论与巨灾风险的国家管理[D].复旦大学,2005
[29]谭湘渝,蒋毅.巨灾保险制度的经济学分析与模式选择[J].生产力研究,2009,(24)
[30]陈和,申明浩.中国巨灾保险制度初探及国外经验借鉴[J].国际经贸探索,2010,(03)
[31]胡礼文；试谈对巨灾风险的对策——兼谈巨灾保险基金的建立[J].金融与经济,2010,(04)
[32]谢世清.加勒比巨灾风险保险基金的运作及其借鉴[J].财经科学,2010,(01)
[33]池晶.论政府在中国巨灾风险管理体系中的角色定位[J].社会科学战线,2010,(11)
[34]陶正如,陶夏新.巨灾保险衍生品.自然灾害学报.2007(8)Vol.16 No.4