基于制度变迁的中国债券市场结构与行为研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，中国为了适应经济转型的需要，开始大力培养资本市场，但却走进了一个重股票市场、轻债券市场的路径。而分析发达国家的资本市场，无不具备一个发达的债券市场，并且债券市场和股票市场得到了均衡发展。因此，为适应经济发展的要求，促进中国债券市场发展已成为理论界的共识。
改革开放二十多年来，中国债券市场经历了一个快速发展的历程，但在市场结构上也存在许多缺陷，如筹资者主体单一、投资主体层次不丰富、品种残缺、人为分割等。在这种市场结构下必然形成信用单一、流动性不佳等市场行为，从而使债券市场的功能无法得到有效发挥；进一步通过制度变迁分析会发现，制度变迁始终伴随着中国债券市场的结构和行为的演进，债券市场结构和行为的形成受到制度变迁的重要影响，并且随着其不断发展和演变又会反作用于制度变迁，对制度变迁产生新的需求。即制度变迁已经成为中国债券市场结构和行为发展的内生因素，而不仅仅是一个外生的环境。基于以上分析，为促进中国债券市场结构的演进和发展，必须建立一个基于制度变迁的发展战略。
目前理论界对债券市场结构问题虽然常常提及，但对如何理解债券市场结构没有达成共识，甚至有简单地把债券市场结构等同于债券品种结构的说法，这种对债券市场结构理解的片面化和简单化，不利于债券市场理论研究的规范和深入。因此本文打算以债券市场结构的研究为切入点，对债券市场结构各因素进行深入分析，采用静态研究和动态分析结合、借用制度变迁理论和产业组织理论等多种研究方法，结合债券市场自身的金融特性，对其进行基于市场结构基础上的研究尝试，并探讨对应的市场行为和功能发挥问题，提出一个整体性的债券市场发展战略。这无论是对于债券市场整体发展的理论认识，还是在实践层面探索制度变革的路径，都具有相当意义。
本文在结构安排上共分为六章。
第一章是导论部分，指出研究的主要问题，提出了研究的思路和框架，阐明了本文的研究方法和创新之处。
第二章是理论回顾和综述。首先对债券市场理论进行梳理，讨论债券市场对宏观经济的效用和其自身的微观运行机理，同时也介绍中国理论界对债券理论的关注和探索。在债券基本理论回顾之后，本文引入了对产业组织理论、博弈理论和制度变迁理论的介绍。根据上述理论回顾，本文认为，债券市场虽然是一个金融市场，但经济人的行为还是受普遍规律约束的，即在特定制度环境和市场结构下进行自身利益的最大化行为，各方行为的综合导致特定的市场绩效。由此，我们可以参考产业组织理论，利用博弈论方法和制度变迁视角，进行对债券市场经济主体的行为和秩序分析，由此来构建本文的理论框架：从债券市场结构入手，对债券市场结构和行为进行研究，在阐明各因素作用关系的基础上，提出促进中国债券市场结构演进的发展战略。以下各章根据该研究框架，依次展开研究。
第三章是对债券市场结构和行为进行静态分析。在静态分析过程中，首先采用比较研究方法，对债券市场的结构和功能进行分别的理论和实证研究。在此基础上，借鉴产业组织理论，提出了债券市场的结构行为分析框架，对债券市场市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效及其之间的关系进行系统的、以静态关系为主的研究。这一研究的工作为下一步以行为为主要分析对象的动态研究打下了基础。
第四章主要展开对债券市场发展历程和各经济主体行为之间作用关系的动态分析。首先对中国债券市场发展历程展开动态演进分析，然后采用博弈论方法，对目前债券市场结构形成与绩效表现进行多主体动态博弈分析，把市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效与制度变迁置于同一个内生经济博弈过程中，这也是本论文的主要创新之处。
第五章则从制度变迁理论出发，对中国债券市场结构和行为进行制度变迁分析。根据制度变迁理论研究债券市场结构的制度成因、特点及其对于市场结构和行为的影响，指出中国债券市场制度变迁的特点和规律，由于在中国债券市场的发展过程中，政府主导行为具有明显推动效应，强制性制度变迁始终贯穿于市场结构演变的过程中，并对其形成重要作用；诱致性制度变迁虽然也穿插其中，但由于其变迁时间长、成本高等特点，无法形成主导力量。两种制度变迁对债券市场结构和行为产生重要影响，同时债券市场结构和行为的演变也会对其产生新的要求，因此进一步的结论是，在市场需求导向下，通过强制性制度变迁推动诱致性制度变迁的发生，促进债券市场结构和行为的研究，从而实现市场的高效发展。
第六章则在以上分析的基础上，提出促进中国债券市场结构演进的发展战略。需要提及的是，目前许多对中国债券市场的研究由于角度不同，大多选取一个债券品种、单一市场或其中一个功能入手，并基于该单一角度提出改进建议。本文是基于制度变迁角度，从债券市场结构出发，提山一个促进债券市场结构和行为演进的整体发展战略，以推动市场结构和行为协调发展。
Since carrying out the policy of reform and opening-up to the outside world, China has started to foster the capital market in order to adapt to the economic transition. But all these lead to a path which emphasize stock market and ignore bond market. While by analyzing the capital market of developed countries, we can find that each of them boasts developed bond market with the balanced development of both bond and stock markets. Therefore, it has been the common ground that the bond market in China should be promoted so as to meet the requirement of economic development.
During the past two decades since China implemented the reform and opening-up policy, the bond market in China has undergone a rapid development process. At the same time, there are still lots of flaws in terms of economic structure, such as singularity of fund raiser, scarcity of Investment Subjects structure, deformity of variety and man-made segmentation and so on. Under this kind of market structure, credit singleness and lack of Liquidity must be doomed to appear. Thus the function of bond market can't be brought into play. By further analysis of system variance, the evolution of structure and behavior of China bond market always come along with system variance. The formation of the structure and behavior of bond market are greatly influenced by system variance and will also influence the transition of system with its continuous development and evolution, thus produce new demands for the transition of system. That is to say the transition of system has become the endogenetic factor of the development of the bond market structure and behavior, not only exogenous environment. Based on the above analysis, a development strategy must be established on the basis of system transition for the evolution and development of the bond market structure in China.
At present, although the problem of bond market structure is frequently mentioned in the theory circle, a common ground hasn't been achieved on how to understand bond market structure. Even there is a kind of view which takes bond market structure as the same thing with bond variety structure. Such a view is a partial and simple understanding on bond market structure which is not conducive to that standardization and deepening of the theory research on bond market structure. Therefore, this dissertation is taking the research on bond market structure as the key point to carry out deep analysis on its various factors. It takes many kinds of research
method, such as combination of static study and dynamic analysis, using the system transition theory and industry organization theory. By integrating its own financial feature of bond market, this dissertation makes a tentative study based on the market structure and discusses the corresponding market behavior and its function, and then brings forward a comprehensive development strategy of bond market. This has profound significance not only for the theory understanding on the overall development of bond market, but also exploring the way of system transform in the practice regard.
This dissertation is divided into 6 chapters.
The first chapter points out the main research problem, give the study clue and analysis frame, and explain the research methods and innovative points.
The second chapter is the section of theory retrospect and introduction. Begin with the theory of bond market, the chapter discusses the function of bond market to macroeconomic and its Mechanics and Operation as well as the introduction of the attention and exploration of China bond theory field. After these retrospect, the dissertation introduces the industrial organization theory, game theory and system variance theory. According to these theory, my view is that although bond market is a financial market, economic beings are also restricted by universal rules, namely they will get their max benefit under the given system environment and market structure. The integration of behaviors determines the market performance. Thereby, we can reference the industrial organization theory, use game theory method and system variance angel of view to analysis the behavior and order of main body of bond market. Then we can design the theory frame: from the structure of bond market, by study of the market structure and behavior of bond market, under the explanation of relationships among all kinds of factors, we can put forward the development strategy conducive to China bond market evolution. Later chapters are based on this research frame and analyze respectively.
The third chapter is static analysis of bond market structure and behavior. During the analysis process, the dissertation uses the contrastive method to study the structure and function of bond market academically and positively. Based on these, this chapter use for reference of industrial organization theory, put forward the analysis frame of bond market structure and behavior and systematically study the market structure, market behavior, market performance and relationships among them. This work gives the base of further dynamic research object to market behavior.
The fourth chapter outspread the dynamic analysis of bond market development and relationships of economic beings. Firstly, the chapter dynamically analyzes the development process of China bond market. Secondly, using the dynamic game theory method, the formation of bond market structure and performance are analyzed. The main innovative point of this dissertation is to assemble market structure, market behavior and market performance in one endogenetic economic game process.
The fifth chapter begins with the system variance theory, focuses on the system variance of China bond market. Based on the researches of system factors, system characters and the influence of market structure to market behavior, the chapter points out the characteristics and rules of china bond market system variance. On account of the Promoting Effect Government Dominated behavior, compellent system variance runs through the evolution of market structure and act on it. Although derivational system variance also works, it can't be the dominant because of the long variance time and high cost. The two kinds of system variance have effect to market structure and behavior both and the evolution of bond market structure and behavior may call for them too. Thus, the further conclusion is to drive the derivational system variance by compellent system variance and get the effective development by analyzing the market and structure.
Based on the analysis from above, the sixth chapter brings forward the development strategy advancing china bond market structure evolution. One thing must be attention, most research of china bond market give suggestion by selecting one bond, single market or one function. Based on the system variance and bond market structure, this dissertation brings forward a holistic development strategy to promote bond market and structure evolution, thus advance the harmonious development of market structure and behavior.
改革开放二十多年来，中国债券市场经历了一个快速发展的历程，但在市场结构上也存在许多缺陷，如筹资者主体单一、投资主体层次不丰富、品种残缺、人为分割等。在这种市场结构下必然形成信用单一、流动性不佳等市场行为，从而使债券市场的功能无法得到有效发挥；进一步通过制度变迁分析会发现，制度变迁始终伴随着中国债券市场的结构和行为的演进，债券市场结构和行为的形成受到制度变迁的重要影响，并且随着其不断发展和演变又会反作用于制度变迁，对制度变迁产生新的需求。即制度变迁已经成为中国债券市场结构和行为发展的内生因素，而不仅仅是一个外生的环境。基于以上分析，为促进中国债券市场结构的演进和发展，必须建立一个基于制度变迁的发展战略。
目前理论界对债券市场结构问题虽然常常提及，但对如何理解债券市场结构没有达成共识，甚至有简单地把债券市场结构等同于债券品种结构的说法，这种对债券市场结构理解的片面化和简单化，不利于债券市场理论研究的规范和深入。因此本文打算以债券市场结构的研究为切入点，对债券市场结构各因素进行深入分析，采用静态研究和动态分析结合、借用制度变迁理论和产业组织理论等多种研究方法，结合债券市场自身的金融特性，对其进行基于市场结构基础上的研究尝试，并探讨对应的市场行为和功能发挥问题，提出一个整体性的债券市场发展战略。这无论是对于债券市场整体发展的理论认识，还是在实践层面探索制度变革的路径，都具有相当意义。
本文在结构安排上共分为六章。
第一章是导论部分，指出研究的主要问题，提出了研究的思路和框架，阐明了本文的研究方法和创新之处。
第二章是理论回顾和综述。首先对债券市场理论进行梳理，讨论债券市场对宏观经济的效用和其自身的微观运行机理，同时也介绍中国理论界对债券理论的关注和探索。在债券基本理论回顾之后，本文引入了对产业组织理论、博弈理论和制度变迁理论的介绍。根据上述理论回顾，本文认为，债券市场虽然是一个金融市场，但经济人的行为还是受普遍规律约束的，即在特定制度环境和市场结构下进行自身利益的最大化行为，各方行为的综合导致特定的市场绩效。由此，我们可以参考产业组织理论，利用博弈论方法和制度变迁视角，进行对债券市场经济主体的行为和秩序分析，由此来构建本文的理论框架：从债券市场结构入手，对债券市场结构和行为进行研究，在阐明各因素作用关系的基础上，提出促进中国债券市场结构演进的发展战略。以下各章根据该研究框架，依次展开研究。
第三章是对债券市场结构和行为进行静态分析。在静态分析过程中，首先采用比较研究方法，对债券市场的结构和功能进行分别的理论和实证研究。在此基础上，借鉴产业组织理论，提出了债券市场的结构行为分析框架，对债券市场市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效及其之间的关系进行系统的、以静态关系为主的研究。这一研究的工作为下一步以行为为主要分析对象的动态研究打下了基础。
第四章主要展开对债券市场发展历程和各经济主体行为之间作用关系的动态分析。首先对中国债券市场发展历程展开动态演进分析，然后采用博弈论方法，对目前债券市场结构形成与绩效表现进行多主体动态博弈分析，把市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效与制度变迁置于同一个内生经济博弈过程中，这也是本论文的主要创新之处。
第五章则从制度变迁理论出发，对中国债券市场结构和行为进行制度变迁分析。根据制度变迁理论研究债券市场结构的制度成因、特点及其对于市场结构和行为的影响，指出中国债券市场制度变迁的特点和规律，由于在中国债券市场的发展过程中，政府主导行为具有明显推动效应，强制性制度变迁始终贯穿于市场结构演变的过程中，并对其形成重要作用；诱致性制度变迁虽然也穿插其中，但由于其变迁时间长、成本高等特点，无法形成主导力量。两种制度变迁对债券市场结构和行为产生重要影响，同时债券市场结构和行为的演变也会对其产生新的要求，因此进一步的结论是，在市场需求导向下，通过强制性制度变迁推动诱致性制度变迁的发生，促进债券市场结构和行为的研究，从而实现市场的高效发展。
第六章则在以上分析的基础上，提出促进中国债券市场结构演进的发展战略。需要提及的是，目前许多对中国债券市场的研究由于角度不同，大多选取一个债券品种、单一市场或其中一个功能入手，并基于该单一角度提出改进建议。本文是基于制度变迁角度，从债券市场结构出发，提山一个促进债券市场结构和行为演进的整体发展战略，以推动市场结构和行为协调发展。
Since carrying out the policy of reform and opening-up to the outside world, China has started to foster the capital market in order to adapt to the economic transition. But all these lead to a path which emphasize stock market and ignore bond market. While by analyzing the capital market of developed countries, we can find that each of them boasts developed bond market with the balanced development of both bond and stock markets. Therefore, it has been the common ground that the bond market in China should be promoted so as to meet the requirement of economic development.
During the past two decades since China implemented the reform and opening-up policy, the bond market in China has undergone a rapid development process. At the same time, there are still lots of flaws in terms of economic structure, such as singularity of fund raiser, scarcity of Investment Subjects structure, deformity of variety and man-made segmentation and so on. Under this kind of market structure, credit singleness and lack of Liquidity must be doomed to appear. Thus the function of bond market can't be brought into play. By further analysis of system variance, the evolution of structure and behavior of China bond market always come along with system variance. The formation of the structure and behavior of bond market are greatly influenced by system variance and will also influence the transition of system with its continuous development and evolution, thus produce new demands for the transition of system. That is to say the transition of system has become the endogenetic factor of the development of the bond market structure and behavior, not only exogenous environment. Based on the above analysis, a development strategy must be established on the basis of system transition for the evolution and development of the bond market structure in China.
At present, although the problem of bond market structure is frequently mentioned in the theory circle, a common ground hasn't been achieved on how to understand bond market structure. Even there is a kind of view which takes bond market structure as the same thing with bond variety structure. Such a view is a partial and simple understanding on bond market structure which is not conducive to that standardization and deepening of the theory research on bond market structure. Therefore, this dissertation is taking the research on bond market structure as the key point to carry out deep analysis on its various factors. It takes many kinds of research
method, such as combination of static study and dynamic analysis, using the system transition theory and industry organization theory. By integrating its own financial feature of bond market, this dissertation makes a tentative study based on the market structure and discusses the corresponding market behavior and its function, and then brings forward a comprehensive development strategy of bond market. This has profound significance not only for the theory understanding on the overall development of bond market, but also exploring the way of system transform in the practice regard.
This dissertation is divided into 6 chapters.
The first chapter points out the main research problem, give the study clue and analysis frame, and explain the research methods and innovative points.
The second chapter is the section of theory retrospect and introduction. Begin with the theory of bond market, the chapter discusses the function of bond market to macroeconomic and its Mechanics and Operation as well as the introduction of the attention and exploration of China bond theory field. After these retrospect, the dissertation introduces the industrial organization theory, game theory and system variance theory. According to these theory, my view is that although bond market is a financial market, economic beings are also restricted by universal rules, namely they will get their max benefit under the given system environment and market structure. The integration of behaviors determines the market performance. Thereby, we can reference the industrial organization theory, use game theory method and system variance angel of view to analysis the behavior and order of main body of bond market. Then we can design the theory frame: from the structure of bond market, by study of the market structure and behavior of bond market, under the explanation of relationships among all kinds of factors, we can put forward the development strategy conducive to China bond market evolution. Later chapters are based on this research frame and analyze respectively.
The third chapter is static analysis of bond market structure and behavior. During the analysis process, the dissertation uses the contrastive method to study the structure and function of bond market academically and positively. Based on these, this chapter use for reference of industrial organization theory, put forward the analysis frame of bond market structure and behavior and systematically study the market structure, market behavior, market performance and relationships among them. This work gives the base of further dynamic research object to market behavior.
The fourth chapter outspread the dynamic analysis of bond market development and relationships of economic beings. Firstly, the chapter dynamically analyzes the development process of China bond market. Secondly, using the dynamic game theory method, the formation of bond market structure and performance are analyzed. The main innovative point of this dissertation is to assemble market structure, market behavior and market performance in one endogenetic economic game process.
The fifth chapter begins with the system variance theory, focuses on the system variance of China bond market. Based on the researches of system factors, system characters and the influence of market structure to market behavior, the chapter points out the characteristics and rules of china bond market system variance. On account of the Promoting Effect Government Dominated behavior, compellent system variance runs through the evolution of market structure and act on it. Although derivational system variance also works, it can't be the dominant because of the long variance time and high cost. The two kinds of system variance have effect to market structure and behavior both and the evolution of bond market structure and behavior may call for them too. Thus, the further conclusion is to drive the derivational system variance by compellent system variance and get the effective development by analyzing the market and structure.
Based on the analysis from above, the sixth chapter brings forward the development strategy advancing china bond market structure evolution. One thing must be attention, most research of china bond market give suggestion by selecting one bond, single market or one function. Based on the system variance and bond market structure, this dissertation brings forward a holistic development strategy to promote bond market and structure evolution, thus advance the harmonious development of market structure and behavior.
引文
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