天津耕作制度50年演变规律、2020年发展方向及其对策研究
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摘要
本研究采用历史统计资料分析、典型调查、专家采访和数学模型相结合的方法,对天津市50多年的耕作制度的演变规律、影响因素进行了系统的分析,并在此基础上对2020年的耕作制度发展进行了预测,进而提出了天津市耕作制度发展对策。
1.确定了新形势下天津市农业耕作区划
在对比分析和综合研究基础上,对天津市农业耕作区划的各个区域的功能进行重新定位和分析,共划分四个农业耕作区,即近郊都市农业耕作区、滨海农业耕作区、中南部平原综合农业耕作区、北部生态农业耕作区。根据各个分区的未来发展趋势提出了“都市农业圈、滨海农业产业带和中南综合农业带、北部生态农业区”即“一圈、两带、一区”的区域农业发展概念。
2.系统地研究了1949年-2003年天津市耕作制度的演变规律
1949年以来,天津市耕作制度不断优化,促进了种植业结构、农业结构及农村结构的调整与优化。
复种指数先增后降,先由105.48%增加到149.23%,后又降低到119.8%,近年呈现稳定发展趋势。作物布局出现专业化、区域化的趋势,逐步形成了设施蔬菜种植区、棉花种植区和粮食种植区;种植方式呈多样化发展趋势,土地生产率进一步提高;轮作进一步减少,连作面积增加,年限加长;科学技术水平幅度提高,作物新品种、设施农业等新技术的应用,大幅度提高了农作物的单产水平。
种植业内部粮食比重下降了39%,经济作物比重上升了37%,粮食、蔬菜、棉花总产量分别增加4倍、23倍、16.6倍;粮食自给率下降到24.41%,全市粮食消费量和农村粮食消费量分别增加了80.54%、38.08%,根据长期变化的趋势,天津市粮维持在20%-40%是比较合理的区域。
农业内部结构逐步优化,农业比重下降了43.99%,畜牧业比重上升了32.63%,渔业上升9.11%,林业稳步增长。
农村产业结构逐步优化,农村总产值增加了100倍,第一、二、三产业结构由42.59:53.02:4.39调整为8.01:74.03:17.96。乡村从业人员增加了17.59%,第一产业从业人数比例下降了23.3%,第二、三产业从业人数比例上升了16.88%、6.34%:农民人均纯收入逐步提高,增长了129.24倍。
天津耕作制度演变的基本规律是:大城市农业结构调整的一般规律为:城市发展和城乡人民生活需求的增加,伴随着资源(耕地面积、水资源等)的减少→粮食面积减少、经济作物增加(第一产业比例下降、农业比例下降)→粮食自给能力下降、肉蛋奶的供应能力上升、农业劳动力减少→经济效益的提高(亩耕地产值、劳均产值、人均收入)→促进农业多样化和农村多元化→城乡→体化发展;城市发展的多样化需求是推动大城市耕作制度发展和调整主要动力;农业持续发展和农民收入的稳定增长是耕作制度改革和发展的核心任务;农业政策保证和科学技术水平提高是耕作制度发展的根本保证。
3.天津市耕作制度演变的影响因素分析
天津市耕作制度的演变受到了城市发展、生产条件和投入水平、水资源状况和科学技术水平等多方面因素的影响。1978～2003年天津市城市化率由49.00%提高到59.37%,而耕地面积由469400 hm~2减少到418527 hm~2,减少了10.84%;天津市农机总动力、灌溉面积、化肥施用量、塑料薄膜使用量分别增加了1485倍、634.47%、269倍、171.47%,这些变化大大促进了农业产出水平的提高;农业用水日益紧张,使水稻、小麦等耗水作物面积减少,相应地棉花等耐旱作物种植面积大幅度上升,促进了种植业结构的调整。
各影响因素与耕作制度演变的灰色关联度分析表明:对耕地面积的影响,各要素的顺
The studies mainly focus on the evolvement and impact factors of farming system about 50 years in Tianjin city. The author makes good use of all kinds of ways such as statistic analysis, typical survey, specialist interview and mathematic model to analyze this issue, and also, predicts the developing trends of farming system in 2020 based on the analysis and put forward some countermeasures.1. Established the zoning of fanning system in Tianjin cityBased on the comparative analysis and synthesized study, the author newly make sure orientation about outskirts city agriculture cultivatable area, Binhai cultivatable area, plain synthesized agricultural cultivatable area in the middle of south and the function of environment agricultural cultivatable area in north, and take an idea of district agriculture development about "city agriculture circle, Binhai industrial section, synthetical agriculture section in the middle of south and environment agricultural area "----"a circle, two belts and a section ".2. Systematically studied the evolvement rules of fanning system from 1949 to 2003 in Tianjin cityAs the improvement of farming system in Tianjin , the structure of plants ,agriculture and rural china have been adjusted and improved since 1949. Cropping index enhances from 105.48% to 149.23%,then reduces to 119.8%,and has a steady increase trend in resent years. Crop distribution has a specialization and area coverage trend, and generally comes into being facility vegetable area, cotton and grain planting area; planting mode has a diversification trend, and land productivity increased further ;rotation decreased further , durative rotation area and time added; crop output increased greatly by means of using new breed, Facility agriculture and information technology.The proportion of crop drops 39% in the interior of farming, the level of food self-support drop to 24.41%,but that of economic plant rise 37% and crop, vegetable and cotton rise 4,23 and 16.6 times, urban and rural city food-grain consumption rise 80.54% and 38.03% in Tianjin ,based the long-term change trend, author think that foodstuff should be kept in the rational range of 20%-40% in Tianjin. The internal agricultural structure was optimized generally, the proportion of agriculture go down 43.99%,but that of stockbreeding and fishery go up 32.63% and 9.1 l%,and forestry steadily rise.Rural industrial structure was also optimized generally , GNP in rural China rise 100 times, Domestic first industry ,domestic second industry and service industries structure were adjusted from 42.59:53.02:4.39 to 8.01:74.03:17.96.Numbers of Rural Laborers rise 17.59%, thereas, that of Domestic first industry drop 23.3%,but that of domestic second industry and service industry rise 16.88% and 6.34%; Farmers' average net income increases 129.24 times.The basic evolvement law of farming system in Tianjin is as follows:The general law of the agricultural structure adjustment in big city is that city spread and increasing demand for urban and rural people's living as declining natural resource, reducing grain area, increasing economic crop (the proportion of Domestic first industry and agriculture decreased), descending the supply of grain, ascending the supply of meat, egg and milk, reducing
agricultural labor force ,promoting the economical effects (per mu tilth production value, labor production value, per capita income), promoting of the agricultural diversification and rural pluralistic structure, integrative urban and rural development; Diversification demand in urban development is the main impetus for the adjustment of fanning system. To Promote the agricultural sustainable development and increasing the farmers' income is the core for farming system reform and development. Agricultural policy and technology is the basic guarantee for farming system development.3. The analysis on the influence factor to the evolvement of farming system in TianjinThe evolvement of Tianjin's farming system has been influenced by a lot of factors such as city development, condition for pr
1.确定了新形势下天津市农业耕作区划
在对比分析和综合研究基础上,对天津市农业耕作区划的各个区域的功能进行重新定位和分析,共划分四个农业耕作区,即近郊都市农业耕作区、滨海农业耕作区、中南部平原综合农业耕作区、北部生态农业耕作区。根据各个分区的未来发展趋势提出了“都市农业圈、滨海农业产业带和中南综合农业带、北部生态农业区”即“一圈、两带、一区”的区域农业发展概念。
2.系统地研究了1949年-2003年天津市耕作制度的演变规律
1949年以来,天津市耕作制度不断优化,促进了种植业结构、农业结构及农村结构的调整与优化。
复种指数先增后降,先由105.48%增加到149.23%,后又降低到119.8%,近年呈现稳定发展趋势。作物布局出现专业化、区域化的趋势,逐步形成了设施蔬菜种植区、棉花种植区和粮食种植区;种植方式呈多样化发展趋势,土地生产率进一步提高;轮作进一步减少,连作面积增加,年限加长;科学技术水平幅度提高,作物新品种、设施农业等新技术的应用,大幅度提高了农作物的单产水平。
种植业内部粮食比重下降了39%,经济作物比重上升了37%,粮食、蔬菜、棉花总产量分别增加4倍、23倍、16.6倍;粮食自给率下降到24.41%,全市粮食消费量和农村粮食消费量分别增加了80.54%、38.08%,根据长期变化的趋势,天津市粮维持在20%-40%是比较合理的区域。
农业内部结构逐步优化,农业比重下降了43.99%,畜牧业比重上升了32.63%,渔业上升9.11%,林业稳步增长。
农村产业结构逐步优化,农村总产值增加了100倍,第一、二、三产业结构由42.59:53.02:4.39调整为8.01:74.03:17.96。乡村从业人员增加了17.59%,第一产业从业人数比例下降了23.3%,第二、三产业从业人数比例上升了16.88%、6.34%:农民人均纯收入逐步提高,增长了129.24倍。
天津耕作制度演变的基本规律是:大城市农业结构调整的一般规律为:城市发展和城乡人民生活需求的增加,伴随着资源(耕地面积、水资源等)的减少→粮食面积减少、经济作物增加(第一产业比例下降、农业比例下降)→粮食自给能力下降、肉蛋奶的供应能力上升、农业劳动力减少→经济效益的提高(亩耕地产值、劳均产值、人均收入)→促进农业多样化和农村多元化→城乡→体化发展;城市发展的多样化需求是推动大城市耕作制度发展和调整主要动力;农业持续发展和农民收入的稳定增长是耕作制度改革和发展的核心任务;农业政策保证和科学技术水平提高是耕作制度发展的根本保证。
3.天津市耕作制度演变的影响因素分析
天津市耕作制度的演变受到了城市发展、生产条件和投入水平、水资源状况和科学技术水平等多方面因素的影响。1978～2003年天津市城市化率由49.00%提高到59.37%,而耕地面积由469400 hm~2减少到418527 hm~2,减少了10.84%;天津市农机总动力、灌溉面积、化肥施用量、塑料薄膜使用量分别增加了1485倍、634.47%、269倍、171.47%,这些变化大大促进了农业产出水平的提高;农业用水日益紧张,使水稻、小麦等耗水作物面积减少,相应地棉花等耐旱作物种植面积大幅度上升,促进了种植业结构的调整。
各影响因素与耕作制度演变的灰色关联度分析表明:对耕地面积的影响,各要素的顺
The studies mainly focus on the evolvement and impact factors of farming system about 50 years in Tianjin city. The author makes good use of all kinds of ways such as statistic analysis, typical survey, specialist interview and mathematic model to analyze this issue, and also, predicts the developing trends of farming system in 2020 based on the analysis and put forward some countermeasures.1. Established the zoning of fanning system in Tianjin cityBased on the comparative analysis and synthesized study, the author newly make sure orientation about outskirts city agriculture cultivatable area, Binhai cultivatable area, plain synthesized agricultural cultivatable area in the middle of south and the function of environment agricultural cultivatable area in north, and take an idea of district agriculture development about "city agriculture circle, Binhai industrial section, synthetical agriculture section in the middle of south and environment agricultural area "----"a circle, two belts and a section ".2. Systematically studied the evolvement rules of fanning system from 1949 to 2003 in Tianjin cityAs the improvement of farming system in Tianjin , the structure of plants ,agriculture and rural china have been adjusted and improved since 1949. Cropping index enhances from 105.48% to 149.23%,then reduces to 119.8%,and has a steady increase trend in resent years. Crop distribution has a specialization and area coverage trend, and generally comes into being facility vegetable area, cotton and grain planting area; planting mode has a diversification trend, and land productivity increased further ;rotation decreased further , durative rotation area and time added; crop output increased greatly by means of using new breed, Facility agriculture and information technology.The proportion of crop drops 39% in the interior of farming, the level of food self-support drop to 24.41%,but that of economic plant rise 37% and crop, vegetable and cotton rise 4,23 and 16.6 times, urban and rural city food-grain consumption rise 80.54% and 38.03% in Tianjin ,based the long-term change trend, author think that foodstuff should be kept in the rational range of 20%-40% in Tianjin. The internal agricultural structure was optimized generally, the proportion of agriculture go down 43.99%,but that of stockbreeding and fishery go up 32.63% and 9.1 l%,and forestry steadily rise.Rural industrial structure was also optimized generally , GNP in rural China rise 100 times, Domestic first industry ,domestic second industry and service industries structure were adjusted from 42.59:53.02:4.39 to 8.01:74.03:17.96.Numbers of Rural Laborers rise 17.59%, thereas, that of Domestic first industry drop 23.3%,but that of domestic second industry and service industry rise 16.88% and 6.34%; Farmers' average net income increases 129.24 times.The basic evolvement law of farming system in Tianjin is as follows:The general law of the agricultural structure adjustment in big city is that city spread and increasing demand for urban and rural people's living as declining natural resource, reducing grain area, increasing economic crop (the proportion of Domestic first industry and agriculture decreased), descending the supply of grain, ascending the supply of meat, egg and milk, reducing
agricultural labor force ,promoting the economical effects (per mu tilth production value, labor production value, per capita income), promoting of the agricultural diversification and rural pluralistic structure, integrative urban and rural development; Diversification demand in urban development is the main impetus for the adjustment of fanning system. To Promote the agricultural sustainable development and increasing the farmers' income is the core for farming system reform and development. Agricultural policy and technology is the basic guarantee for farming system development.3. The analysis on the influence factor to the evolvement of farming system in TianjinThe evolvement of Tianjin's farming system has been influenced by a lot of factors such as city development, condition for pr
引文
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