中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场研究及预测
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摘要
集装箱班轮运输市场受外界不确定因素影响很大，班轮运输风险高、利润低，而且集装箱班轮运输市场进入壁垒高、竞争激烈。我国的集装箱运输船队自20世纪70年代末建立以后，一直呈快速增长的势头，现在已经发展为国际集装箱班轮运输大国。
本文对中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场进行了供需分析。定性说明市场的供需特点，分析了中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的船舶供给、集装箱船大型化趋势的动因、中国国际班轮运输企业的经营方式，并结合定量的方法找出市场需求的相关因素，对中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的供需不平衡的原因进行了探讨，找出了一些影响市场供需的因素，可为研究中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的规律性提供依据。
在此基础上，以中国水运行业国际集装箱运输量(本文简称：国际集装箱运输量)作为中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的需求测度指标，在曲线趋势模型预拟合的基础上对原始数据进行处理，建立二次曲线模型和灰色一阶模型，连续两次对灰色一阶模型进行修正，采用二次曲线模型和修正后的一阶灰色预测的组合模型建立需求预测模型，获得对未来几年时间内国际集装箱运输量较准确的预测。
接着，以中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI为研究对象，通过时间序列乘法模型找出中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场运价的长期变化趋势、季节变化规律、周期循环变化规律和不规则变化，挖掘出影响并改变着市场运价的经济、政治、社会、科技等因素。
然后，运用Box-Jenkins的ARIMA模型建模方法建立中国出口集装箱运价指数预测模型，并尝试拟合季节ARIMA模型，对两个模型进行诊断、比较、评价，并利用优选出来的ARIMA模型对中国出口集装箱运价指数进行了精确的短期预测。
最后，根据前文的分析及预测结果，总结出2004年中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场发展的新态势；运力运量将有较大增长；运价持续上扬；供需矛盾缓解；集装箱船大型化趋势将继续；外资班轮企业进入力度加大，班轮公司的联合联营加速化；并且给中国国际班轮运输企业的经营提出了几条具体的建议。
Container Liner Transport Market is greatly influenced by external uncertain factors. The risk of Container Shipping is very high, but the profit is rather low. Besides, the barrier against entry into market is high, in which competition is fierce. Since its establishment in the late 1970s, China's Shipping Fleets have been expanding rapidly. Now China has developed into a big International Container Shipping Country.
This paper makes a supply-demand analysis on China's International Container Liner Transport Market. By describing the characteristics of supply and demand in this market qualitatively, and analyzing the supply of China's International Container Liner Transport Market, the motivations and reasons for container ship's development tendency to large-size and the management method of China's International Liner Shipping Companies, the author finds out the relevant factors in the market demand by means of quantitative analysis and discusses the cause of imbalance between supply and demand in the market, thus finds out factors affecting the market's supply and demand. All the above-mentioned work can offer a fundamental evidence for studying the law of China's International Container Liner Transport Market.
On the basis of the above analysis, regarding Container Traffic Handled by Professional Waterway Transport Sector as the market demand measurement quotas, and processing the original data on the basis of pre-matching Curve Trend Model, the author establishes Second Degree Curve Model and GM(1,1) which is revised two times. Then the writer adopts Second Degree Curve Model and the revised GM(1,1) to set up a Combined Forecasting Model of demand, which accurately predicts Container Traffic Handled by Professional Waterway Transport Sector in the following several years.
Then author takes China Containerized Freight Index(CCFI) as research object to set up Time Series Multiplication Model by which the author finds out Secular Trend, Seasonal Fluctuation, Cyclical Movement and Irregular Variation of the price in China's International Container Liner Transport Market, and digs out the economic, political, social, science and technology and other factors influencing and changing the transportation price.
Accordingly, the author makes use of Box-Jenkins's method to set up a ARIMA (Autoregressive-integrated-moving average) Model estimating CCFI. The author also
makes an attempt to match a Seasonal ARIMA Model, and diagnoses, compares and evaluates the foregoing two models. After the previous work, the author makes the accurate short-term forecast of CCFI by using the optimized model selected from the foregoing two models.
According to the results from the previous analysis and forecast, the author summarizes the new situation of China's International Container Liner Transport Market in 2004: Transportation capability and transportation load will have a greater increase, compared with the year 2003. Transportation price keeps on rising steadily. Contradiction between supply and demand will be alleviated. The container ship's development tendency to large-size will continue. More Foreign Container Transport Companies will enter China's International Container Liner Transport Market, and Container Transport Companies will accelerate merger or joint-management. Finally, the author put forward several simple suggestions to China's International Liner Transport Companies.
Chen Lijiang (Industrial Economics) Directed by Yu Siqin
本文对中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场进行了供需分析。定性说明市场的供需特点，分析了中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的船舶供给、集装箱船大型化趋势的动因、中国国际班轮运输企业的经营方式，并结合定量的方法找出市场需求的相关因素，对中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的供需不平衡的原因进行了探讨，找出了一些影响市场供需的因素，可为研究中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的规律性提供依据。
在此基础上，以中国水运行业国际集装箱运输量(本文简称：国际集装箱运输量)作为中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的需求测度指标，在曲线趋势模型预拟合的基础上对原始数据进行处理，建立二次曲线模型和灰色一阶模型，连续两次对灰色一阶模型进行修正，采用二次曲线模型和修正后的一阶灰色预测的组合模型建立需求预测模型，获得对未来几年时间内国际集装箱运输量较准确的预测。
接着，以中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI为研究对象，通过时间序列乘法模型找出中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场运价的长期变化趋势、季节变化规律、周期循环变化规律和不规则变化，挖掘出影响并改变着市场运价的经济、政治、社会、科技等因素。
然后，运用Box-Jenkins的ARIMA模型建模方法建立中国出口集装箱运价指数预测模型，并尝试拟合季节ARIMA模型，对两个模型进行诊断、比较、评价，并利用优选出来的ARIMA模型对中国出口集装箱运价指数进行了精确的短期预测。
最后，根据前文的分析及预测结果，总结出2004年中国国际集装箱班轮运输市场发展的新态势；运力运量将有较大增长；运价持续上扬；供需矛盾缓解；集装箱船大型化趋势将继续；外资班轮企业进入力度加大，班轮公司的联合联营加速化；并且给中国国际班轮运输企业的经营提出了几条具体的建议。
Container Liner Transport Market is greatly influenced by external uncertain factors. The risk of Container Shipping is very high, but the profit is rather low. Besides, the barrier against entry into market is high, in which competition is fierce. Since its establishment in the late 1970s, China's Shipping Fleets have been expanding rapidly. Now China has developed into a big International Container Shipping Country.
This paper makes a supply-demand analysis on China's International Container Liner Transport Market. By describing the characteristics of supply and demand in this market qualitatively, and analyzing the supply of China's International Container Liner Transport Market, the motivations and reasons for container ship's development tendency to large-size and the management method of China's International Liner Shipping Companies, the author finds out the relevant factors in the market demand by means of quantitative analysis and discusses the cause of imbalance between supply and demand in the market, thus finds out factors affecting the market's supply and demand. All the above-mentioned work can offer a fundamental evidence for studying the law of China's International Container Liner Transport Market.
On the basis of the above analysis, regarding Container Traffic Handled by Professional Waterway Transport Sector as the market demand measurement quotas, and processing the original data on the basis of pre-matching Curve Trend Model, the author establishes Second Degree Curve Model and GM(1,1) which is revised two times. Then the writer adopts Second Degree Curve Model and the revised GM(1,1) to set up a Combined Forecasting Model of demand, which accurately predicts Container Traffic Handled by Professional Waterway Transport Sector in the following several years.
Then author takes China Containerized Freight Index(CCFI) as research object to set up Time Series Multiplication Model by which the author finds out Secular Trend, Seasonal Fluctuation, Cyclical Movement and Irregular Variation of the price in China's International Container Liner Transport Market, and digs out the economic, political, social, science and technology and other factors influencing and changing the transportation price.
Accordingly, the author makes use of Box-Jenkins's method to set up a ARIMA (Autoregressive-integrated-moving average) Model estimating CCFI. The author also
makes an attempt to match a Seasonal ARIMA Model, and diagnoses, compares and evaluates the foregoing two models. After the previous work, the author makes the accurate short-term forecast of CCFI by using the optimized model selected from the foregoing two models.
According to the results from the previous analysis and forecast, the author summarizes the new situation of China's International Container Liner Transport Market in 2004: Transportation capability and transportation load will have a greater increase, compared with the year 2003. Transportation price keeps on rising steadily. Contradiction between supply and demand will be alleviated. The container ship's development tendency to large-size will continue. More Foreign Container Transport Companies will enter China's International Container Liner Transport Market, and Container Transport Companies will accelerate merger or joint-management. Finally, the author put forward several simple suggestions to China's International Liner Transport Companies.
Chen Lijiang (Industrial Economics) Directed by Yu Siqin
引文
1．林祖乙．国际集装箱运输．北京：人民交通出版社，1993年．
2．丁育松．论国际集装箱班轮运输联盟．集装箱化，2003(2)
3．张国发．中国集装箱港口产业的发展及建议．港口经济，2004(1)
4．罗骊．战争阴云下的航运股．证券时报，2003(2)
5．中华人民共和国交通部．2002中国航运发展报告．北京：人民交通出版社，2003
6．马越．集装箱班轮运输企业联合问题研究：[学位论文]．大连：大连海事大学，2000
7．匡佩远，刘作义．我国国际集装箱运输市场的基本态势分析．集装箱化，2001(2)
8．杨靳．集装箱运输市场经济分析．世界海运，2000(2)：49～50
9．姚宗明、林国龙．集装箱运输管理．北京：人民交通出版社，1997年
10．虞卫华．集装箱船舶市场．集装箱化，2004(2)
11．惠良．暖风频吹的集装箱船租赁市场．中国水运，2003(12)
12．李忠雨．炙手可热的超大型集装箱船．航运交易公报，2004(2)
13．田桦．国际集装箱运输企业经营策略研究：[学位论文]．大连：大连海事大学，2000
14．林安东．集装箱航运市场分析及基于Web的市场信息发布系统开发的研究：[学位论文]．上海：上海海运学院，2001
15．刘斌，赵伊川，陈勇．港口集装箱吞吐量与我国几种经济指标的相关性研究．世界海运，2002，25(5)
16．肖昭媛．统计学理论与应用．上海：上海交通大学出版社．2001
17．何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1998
18．曹鸿兴，郑耀文，顾今．灰色系统理论浅述．北京：气象出版社，1988
19．邢棉．能源发展趋势的非线性优化组合预测模型研究．华北电力大学学报．2002，29(3)
20．李洪江，武春友．灰色——自适应过滤组合预测模型及应用．科学学与科学技术管理，2001(3)
21．马永开，唐小我，杨桂元．非负权重最优组合预测方法的基本理论研究．运筹与管理，1997，6(2)
22．张林红．国际干散货航运市场预测模型研究：[学位论文]．大连：大连海事大学，2002
23．顾伟红．中国出口集装箱运价指数解析．集装箱化，2000(1)
24．贾俊平，何晓群，金勇进．统计学．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2000
25．吕靖，陈庆辉．海运价格指数的波动规律．大连海事大学学报，2003，29(1)
26．潘晓丹．油运费率指数的规律性分析及短期预测．中国航海，2001(1)
27．施锡全，范正绮．数据分析方法．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1997
28．卢纹岱．SPSS for Windows统计分析．第二版．北京：电子工业出版社，2002
29．张文彤．SPSS11统计分析教程高级篇．北京：北京希望电子出版社，2002
30．George E. P. Box, Gwilym M. Jenkins, Greeory C. Reinsel. 时间序列分析预测与控制(顾岚，主译)．第三版．北京：中国统计出版社．1997
31．陈德明．国际集装箱运输市场回顾与展望．世界海运，2004，27(1)
32．刘昌龙．2004年国际集装箱运输市场展望．集装箱化，2004(2)
33．周翔，王岚．中国集装箱运输市场回顾与展望．航运交易公报，2004(5)
34. http://www.moc.gov.cn/news/2004-01/t20040113_8069.htm
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37. http://chanye.finance.sina.com.cn/jt/2003-03-25/154983.shtml
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41. http://news3.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2003-11/27/content_1200397.htm
42. http://service.win.mofcom.gov.cn/cbgyj/jgmy-di0103.asp
43. http://www.21shipping.com/hyzx/hytj/hytj_3.htm#8
44. http://trans.runsky.com/zlcx/more_3.asp?page=2&id=
45. http://www.portcontainer.com/b_consultation/haiyun/index.asp
46. http://www.chineseshipping.com.cn/yunzhiindex.asp
47. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/index.htm
2．丁育松．论国际集装箱班轮运输联盟．集装箱化，2003(2)
3．张国发．中国集装箱港口产业的发展及建议．港口经济，2004(1)
4．罗骊．战争阴云下的航运股．证券时报，2003(2)
5．中华人民共和国交通部．2002中国航运发展报告．北京：人民交通出版社，2003
6．马越．集装箱班轮运输企业联合问题研究：[学位论文]．大连：大连海事大学，2000
7．匡佩远，刘作义．我国国际集装箱运输市场的基本态势分析．集装箱化，2001(2)
8．杨靳．集装箱运输市场经济分析．世界海运，2000(2)：49～50
9．姚宗明、林国龙．集装箱运输管理．北京：人民交通出版社，1997年
10．虞卫华．集装箱船舶市场．集装箱化，2004(2)
11．惠良．暖风频吹的集装箱船租赁市场．中国水运，2003(12)
12．李忠雨．炙手可热的超大型集装箱船．航运交易公报，2004(2)
13．田桦．国际集装箱运输企业经营策略研究：[学位论文]．大连：大连海事大学，2000
14．林安东．集装箱航运市场分析及基于Web的市场信息发布系统开发的研究：[学位论文]．上海：上海海运学院，2001
15．刘斌，赵伊川，陈勇．港口集装箱吞吐量与我国几种经济指标的相关性研究．世界海运，2002，25(5)
16．肖昭媛．统计学理论与应用．上海：上海交通大学出版社．2001
17．何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1998
18．曹鸿兴，郑耀文，顾今．灰色系统理论浅述．北京：气象出版社，1988
19．邢棉．能源发展趋势的非线性优化组合预测模型研究．华北电力大学学报．2002，29(3)
20．李洪江，武春友．灰色——自适应过滤组合预测模型及应用．科学学与科学技术管理，2001(3)
21．马永开，唐小我，杨桂元．非负权重最优组合预测方法的基本理论研究．运筹与管理，1997，6(2)
22．张林红．国际干散货航运市场预测模型研究：[学位论文]．大连：大连海事大学，2002
23．顾伟红．中国出口集装箱运价指数解析．集装箱化，2000(1)
24．贾俊平，何晓群，金勇进．统计学．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2000
25．吕靖，陈庆辉．海运价格指数的波动规律．大连海事大学学报，2003，29(1)
26．潘晓丹．油运费率指数的规律性分析及短期预测．中国航海，2001(1)
27．施锡全，范正绮．数据分析方法．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1997
28．卢纹岱．SPSS for Windows统计分析．第二版．北京：电子工业出版社，2002
29．张文彤．SPSS11统计分析教程高级篇．北京：北京希望电子出版社，2002
30．George E. P. Box, Gwilym M. Jenkins, Greeory C. Reinsel. 时间序列分析预测与控制(顾岚，主译)．第三版．北京：中国统计出版社．1997
31．陈德明．国际集装箱运输市场回顾与展望．世界海运，2004，27(1)
32．刘昌龙．2004年国际集装箱运输市场展望．集装箱化，2004(2)
33．周翔，王岚．中国集装箱运输市场回顾与展望．航运交易公报，2004(5)
34. http://www.moc.gov.cn/news/2004-01/t20040113_8069.htm
35. http://chanye.finance.sina.com.cn/jt/2003-08-05/175502.shtml
36. http://66.102.7.104/search?q
37. http://chanye.finance.sina.com.cn/jt/2003-03-25/154983.shtml
38. http://business.sohu.com/65/81/article206678165.shtml
39. http://www.people.com cn/GB/jinji/36/20020809/796487.html
40. http://www.jiajia.net/xinwen/xw_waibao.php?id=XW-2002-05-29-0012&xw_fenleiid=201
41. http://news3.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2003-11/27/content_1200397.htm
42. http://service.win.mofcom.gov.cn/cbgyj/jgmy-di0103.asp
43. http://www.21shipping.com/hyzx/hytj/hytj_3.htm#8
44. http://trans.runsky.com/zlcx/more_3.asp?page=2&id=
45. http://www.portcontainer.com/b_consultation/haiyun/index.asp
46. http://www.chineseshipping.com.cn/yunzhiindex.asp
47. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/index.htm