基于GIS技术的新疆耕地后备资源潜力评价与分析
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摘要
耕地是土地的精华,是农业生产最基本的不可替代的生产资料。随着人口和社会经济的发展,各方面对农作物和经济作物的需求不断增大。耕地后备资源作为耕地的重要补充来源,成为了缓解国家粮食安全问题的必要战略储备。
本论文在此背景下,借助于地理信息系统、遥感等技术,基于多源基础数据,充分系统的分析了耕地后备资源潜力评价的理论框架,从适宜性角度出发,构建自然-生态-水源约束下的新疆耕地适宜性评价体系。研究通过进行五种等级的适宜性评价,得到研究区耕地后备资源的数量、质量以及空间分布格局。在此基础上,研究以流域为单元,发展了水土平衡条件下的后备耕地空间分布,最终得出研究区耕地后备资源潜力评价与分析的现实指导意义。
首先,论文结合研究区的典型特征,选取地形地貌、气候、土壤、极端干旱环境四项适宜性因素,海拔、坡度、积温、干燥度、土壤厚度、盐渍化程度等10项评价因子,采用100×100m2的栅格数据结构,利用特尔菲法和层析分析法相结合的方法确定指标权重,再利用指数和法进行适宜性评价,从而构建多因素综合评价指标模型,计算研究区宜耕土地资源适宜性等级度。
其次,根据2008年遥感影像的土地利用资料,经过相关信息提取及分类,获得新疆耕地、居民地以及水体的分布格局；同时,根据自然保护区等数据划定出生态用地范围。在其1.04亿亩的现有耕地面积中,平原地区分布的最为广泛,其中96.6%为平原旱地。针对地貌因素的独特之处,论文根据中国1：100万数字地貌数据,比较单因素评价模型,建立各评价因素的隶属度函数,进行耕地后备资源的评价等级分析。评价结果表明,适宜性多因素综合评价指标模型与单因素评价模型的评价结果在宜耕土地资源和耕地后备资源的数量上较为一致,范围分布上较为重叠,有效的验证了评价方法和指标权重的质量,以及适宜性级别的划分准确性。
最后,由于研究区属于典型的温带大陆性干旱半干旱区,考虑到水资源对其农业发展的重要意义,结合新疆维吾尔自治区以水定地的战略决策,论文采用流域分区的方式,基于2008年水资源公报中的水文数据和2008年遥感影像的土地利用资料,借助GIS数据处理软件,利用空间分析模型和地统计学方法,对新疆水资源利用、耕地开发现状以及后备耕地资源量进行了定性和定量的分析计算,得到30个流域的水土平衡指数及其具体开发剩余量,从而科学的确定耕地后备资源开发的适宜程度和开发时序。
综上所述,新疆耕地后备资源潜力的评价与分析,为调整和优化土地利用结构,制定合理的土地开发整理规划提供了科学的理论基础和参考依据。同时,也为国家耕地安全和粮食安全提供了及时的战略保障。
Arable land is the essence of the land and plays an irreplaceable and fundamental role in agricultural production. With the population increasing and social economy developing, greater and greater demands of various fields have been created for common crops and economic crops. As the great supplement for arable land, arable land reserve resources have become the vitally necessary strategic reserve for safeguarding the national food security.
The paper, under such a spectacular background, is intended to specify the theory basis and the evaluating principles through defining the potential of exploiting untouched arable land scientifically; with the aid of geographical information system and remote sensing technology etc., to analyze the theoretical framework of the evaluation comprehensively based on the funder mental multi-source fusion; from the standpoint of suitability, construct the evaluation system of untouched arable land resources in Xinjiang; by conducting five grades land suitability evaluation, to acquire the quantity, quality and the spatial pattern of untouched arable land resources in study area. On that basis, under the constrained condition that the supply and demand in water resource should be balanced, the study improves the spatial distribution of reserve arable land in the unit of river basin. The practical significance of the evaluation and analysis of the potential for arable land reserve resource in study area can be finally represented.
Firstly, combining the typical characteristics of the study area,4 suitability indicators (topography, climate, soil and extremely arid factor) and 10 assessment factors (altitude, grade of terrain, accumulated temperature, dryness, soil thickness, soil salinization and etc.) have been chosen to evaluate. By combining analytic hierarchy process with Delphi ensure the proportions of assessment factors. And then using the index sum method to evaluate the land suitability, finally form the comprehensive evaluation indicator system and model based on raster data structure which is 100×100m2, and calculate the suitability class of the land resources in study area for cultivation.
Secondly, by extracting and classifying the RS land using data in 2008, the spatial distribution pattern of oasis in Xinjiang can be acquired. The existing cultivated land (10.4 million-mu) are mostly distributed in plain area, among them 96% are plain dry land. At the same time, according to the China 1:1000000 digital topography data, compare the single evaluation indicator models and establish the membership functions of all evaluation indicators for the uniqueness of the landform, finally conduct the analysis of the suitability class of the land resources in study area for cultivation. The evaluation results indicate that the results from the comprehensive evaluation indicator model and the single evaluation indicator model, which are about the land resources for cultivation and the untouched arable land resources, are in good agreement in quantity and overlapped in coverage, this effectively proves the evaluation method and ensures the quality of weighting of different index and the accuracy of suitability grades.
Finally, due to the study area belonging to typical temperate continental Arid and Semi-arid Areas, taking the great importance of the water resources to the agriculture into consideration and combining with the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's strategic decision, which ensures the quantity of land for cultivation according to the water resources, the study regionalizes the river basin. And with the aids of DTW of GIS, applying the geo-statistical method and taking advantages of the spatial analysis model, water resources utilization, the present status of the arable land utilization and the quantity of arable land reserve resources in Xinjiang was analyzed and calculated quantitively and qualitatively based on the data from China Water Resources Announcement and RS land using data in 2008. The water-soil balance index of 30 river basins and the concrete residual quantity for developing can be obtained. In that way the suitability for exploiting untouched arable land resources can be ensured and the appropriate timing for developing can also be arranged scientifically.
The evaluation and analysis of potential of the arable land reserve resources for in Xinjiang provides a scientific and theoretical base for adjusting and optimizing the land utilization structure and framing rational land utilization planning. At the same time, it also provides the strategic support for national arable land security and food security timely.
本论文在此背景下,借助于地理信息系统、遥感等技术,基于多源基础数据,充分系统的分析了耕地后备资源潜力评价的理论框架,从适宜性角度出发,构建自然-生态-水源约束下的新疆耕地适宜性评价体系。研究通过进行五种等级的适宜性评价,得到研究区耕地后备资源的数量、质量以及空间分布格局。在此基础上,研究以流域为单元,发展了水土平衡条件下的后备耕地空间分布,最终得出研究区耕地后备资源潜力评价与分析的现实指导意义。
首先,论文结合研究区的典型特征,选取地形地貌、气候、土壤、极端干旱环境四项适宜性因素,海拔、坡度、积温、干燥度、土壤厚度、盐渍化程度等10项评价因子,采用100×100m2的栅格数据结构,利用特尔菲法和层析分析法相结合的方法确定指标权重,再利用指数和法进行适宜性评价,从而构建多因素综合评价指标模型,计算研究区宜耕土地资源适宜性等级度。
其次,根据2008年遥感影像的土地利用资料,经过相关信息提取及分类,获得新疆耕地、居民地以及水体的分布格局；同时,根据自然保护区等数据划定出生态用地范围。在其1.04亿亩的现有耕地面积中,平原地区分布的最为广泛,其中96.6%为平原旱地。针对地貌因素的独特之处,论文根据中国1：100万数字地貌数据,比较单因素评价模型,建立各评价因素的隶属度函数,进行耕地后备资源的评价等级分析。评价结果表明,适宜性多因素综合评价指标模型与单因素评价模型的评价结果在宜耕土地资源和耕地后备资源的数量上较为一致,范围分布上较为重叠,有效的验证了评价方法和指标权重的质量,以及适宜性级别的划分准确性。
最后,由于研究区属于典型的温带大陆性干旱半干旱区,考虑到水资源对其农业发展的重要意义,结合新疆维吾尔自治区以水定地的战略决策,论文采用流域分区的方式,基于2008年水资源公报中的水文数据和2008年遥感影像的土地利用资料,借助GIS数据处理软件,利用空间分析模型和地统计学方法,对新疆水资源利用、耕地开发现状以及后备耕地资源量进行了定性和定量的分析计算,得到30个流域的水土平衡指数及其具体开发剩余量,从而科学的确定耕地后备资源开发的适宜程度和开发时序。
综上所述,新疆耕地后备资源潜力的评价与分析,为调整和优化土地利用结构,制定合理的土地开发整理规划提供了科学的理论基础和参考依据。同时,也为国家耕地安全和粮食安全提供了及时的战略保障。
Arable land is the essence of the land and plays an irreplaceable and fundamental role in agricultural production. With the population increasing and social economy developing, greater and greater demands of various fields have been created for common crops and economic crops. As the great supplement for arable land, arable land reserve resources have become the vitally necessary strategic reserve for safeguarding the national food security.
The paper, under such a spectacular background, is intended to specify the theory basis and the evaluating principles through defining the potential of exploiting untouched arable land scientifically; with the aid of geographical information system and remote sensing technology etc., to analyze the theoretical framework of the evaluation comprehensively based on the funder mental multi-source fusion; from the standpoint of suitability, construct the evaluation system of untouched arable land resources in Xinjiang; by conducting five grades land suitability evaluation, to acquire the quantity, quality and the spatial pattern of untouched arable land resources in study area. On that basis, under the constrained condition that the supply and demand in water resource should be balanced, the study improves the spatial distribution of reserve arable land in the unit of river basin. The practical significance of the evaluation and analysis of the potential for arable land reserve resource in study area can be finally represented.
Firstly, combining the typical characteristics of the study area,4 suitability indicators (topography, climate, soil and extremely arid factor) and 10 assessment factors (altitude, grade of terrain, accumulated temperature, dryness, soil thickness, soil salinization and etc.) have been chosen to evaluate. By combining analytic hierarchy process with Delphi ensure the proportions of assessment factors. And then using the index sum method to evaluate the land suitability, finally form the comprehensive evaluation indicator system and model based on raster data structure which is 100×100m2, and calculate the suitability class of the land resources in study area for cultivation.
Secondly, by extracting and classifying the RS land using data in 2008, the spatial distribution pattern of oasis in Xinjiang can be acquired. The existing cultivated land (10.4 million-mu) are mostly distributed in plain area, among them 96% are plain dry land. At the same time, according to the China 1:1000000 digital topography data, compare the single evaluation indicator models and establish the membership functions of all evaluation indicators for the uniqueness of the landform, finally conduct the analysis of the suitability class of the land resources in study area for cultivation. The evaluation results indicate that the results from the comprehensive evaluation indicator model and the single evaluation indicator model, which are about the land resources for cultivation and the untouched arable land resources, are in good agreement in quantity and overlapped in coverage, this effectively proves the evaluation method and ensures the quality of weighting of different index and the accuracy of suitability grades.
Finally, due to the study area belonging to typical temperate continental Arid and Semi-arid Areas, taking the great importance of the water resources to the agriculture into consideration and combining with the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's strategic decision, which ensures the quantity of land for cultivation according to the water resources, the study regionalizes the river basin. And with the aids of DTW of GIS, applying the geo-statistical method and taking advantages of the spatial analysis model, water resources utilization, the present status of the arable land utilization and the quantity of arable land reserve resources in Xinjiang was analyzed and calculated quantitively and qualitatively based on the data from China Water Resources Announcement and RS land using data in 2008. The water-soil balance index of 30 river basins and the concrete residual quantity for developing can be obtained. In that way the suitability for exploiting untouched arable land resources can be ensured and the appropriate timing for developing can also be arranged scientifically.
The evaluation and analysis of potential of the arable land reserve resources for in Xinjiang provides a scientific and theoretical base for adjusting and optimizing the land utilization structure and framing rational land utilization planning. At the same time, it also provides the strategic support for national arable land security and food security timely.
引文
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