汽车与摩托车碰撞事故车速估计建模
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摘要
汽车与摩托车碰撞事故是道路交通事故的一种重要形式。由于摩托车骑乘人员身体直接暴露在外,没有车身保护,一旦发生事故,人员死伤率极高。
摩托车事故研究是道路交通事故研究的一个分支。在汽车与摩托车碰撞事故中,汽车车速估计是正确判定事故责任,解决事故纠纷的关键之一。目前,对于此类事故的一般处理方法都有其局限性,如质点平抛运动学模型精度不高、车速估计范围过大;轮胎路面印迹的信息随着汽车技术的进步而不易获取等。对于未留轮胎制动印迹的汽车与摩托车碰撞事故,尚缺少准确、有效的处理方法,是事故车速鉴定中的难点问题。
在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,本文研究了汽车与摩托车碰撞事故汽车车速估计方法。以事故案例数据为基础,利用摩托车和骑乘人员的划痕印迹、两者的抛距以及计算机模拟软件PC-Crash仿真数据分别建立了估计碰撞车速的模型。针对运用多个模型估计车速时估计值不同的情况,通过加权的方式将各类模型集成为一个综合模型,并探讨了各子模型的权值问题。
Automobile-motorcycle accident is an important form in traffic accidents. It often causes heavy casualties and great losses of property, because the bikers are always in a vulnerable position. In developed countries, motorcycle-accident accounting for less 5% proportion causes casualties accounting for 30% - 40% in all traffic accidents. In developing countries, due to the characteristics of fast, flexible, lightweight and cheaper prices, motorcycles have become the preferred transport tools in some social strata. The resulting traffic accidents have increased dramatically. The statistics in 2006 show that 100036 motorcycle-accidents occurred, 25128 persons were killed, 152966 persons were injured and 113.3 million RMB lost in these accidents all over the country. They respectively account for 26.41% of gross of traffic accidents, 28.09% of gross of deaths, 35.48% of gross of injured persons and 7.61% of gross of property lost.
Motorcycle has lower safety performance than other vehicles. Because of its small size, fast speed, difficult to identify and poor driving stability, motorcycle is easier to take place accident than cars. Because the body of bikers has no protection, the rate of casualties is very high if any accident has happened. Determining the crash speed of vehicle is not only one of the main tasks of Traffic Accident Reconstruction, but also the premise and basis of determining responsibility.
Based on the research of practical problems encountered, status quo and demand in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle crash, and the results of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University, this paper mainly accomplished the work below:
The characteristics and causes leading to a vehicle-motorcycle crash accident are analyzed in this paper. Ten causes and three characteristics, including high rate of accidents, injuries and handling difficult, are got. Then the paper introduces the main types of motorcycle accidents, as well as the influences of the vehicle shape on motorcycle accident. Finally the paper investigates the main methods at home and overseas in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle accident, and analyzes their limitations. Vehicular velocity estimation models with high accuracy and practicality are established based on the real accident data, which is the goal of this paper. These accident data are obtained from some complete cases of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University since 2000.
Some models are established about the relation of road surface slide mark–collision speed and throwing distance–collision speed of biker or motorcycle in this paper. And this paper deduces a relatively complete physical theoretical formula, which makes up the shortcomings of lower accuracy and oversize speed estimate scope in particle kinematics model. Then the actual accident data are used to fit the parameters in the simplified formula. Finally some practical models are got. Coefficient of sample determination and the discrete level of scatter regression curve are used to validate the accuracy and precision of those models. Dummy collision test ground of vehicle-motorcycle is simulated by PC-Crash. Compared with the overseas test data and models, the paper verified the validity and accuracy of the simulation model.
Owing to using different vehicular velocity estimation models have different estimate values, the paper applied those models into an integrated model, and studied the weight of each sub-model. Two typical accident cases are reconstructed with the models which are founded in this paper.
Although the models are based on the data of low angle between motorcycle and automobile, they are also the same with the situation that motorcycle or biker is thrown out in motorcycle accidents. The research will improve the study on vehicular velocity estimation in vehicle-motorcycle crash. It also has some practical significance on road traffic accidents.
摩托车事故研究是道路交通事故研究的一个分支。在汽车与摩托车碰撞事故中,汽车车速估计是正确判定事故责任,解决事故纠纷的关键之一。目前,对于此类事故的一般处理方法都有其局限性,如质点平抛运动学模型精度不高、车速估计范围过大;轮胎路面印迹的信息随着汽车技术的进步而不易获取等。对于未留轮胎制动印迹的汽车与摩托车碰撞事故,尚缺少准确、有效的处理方法,是事故车速鉴定中的难点问题。
在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,本文研究了汽车与摩托车碰撞事故汽车车速估计方法。以事故案例数据为基础,利用摩托车和骑乘人员的划痕印迹、两者的抛距以及计算机模拟软件PC-Crash仿真数据分别建立了估计碰撞车速的模型。针对运用多个模型估计车速时估计值不同的情况,通过加权的方式将各类模型集成为一个综合模型,并探讨了各子模型的权值问题。
Automobile-motorcycle accident is an important form in traffic accidents. It often causes heavy casualties and great losses of property, because the bikers are always in a vulnerable position. In developed countries, motorcycle-accident accounting for less 5% proportion causes casualties accounting for 30% - 40% in all traffic accidents. In developing countries, due to the characteristics of fast, flexible, lightweight and cheaper prices, motorcycles have become the preferred transport tools in some social strata. The resulting traffic accidents have increased dramatically. The statistics in 2006 show that 100036 motorcycle-accidents occurred, 25128 persons were killed, 152966 persons were injured and 113.3 million RMB lost in these accidents all over the country. They respectively account for 26.41% of gross of traffic accidents, 28.09% of gross of deaths, 35.48% of gross of injured persons and 7.61% of gross of property lost.
Motorcycle has lower safety performance than other vehicles. Because of its small size, fast speed, difficult to identify and poor driving stability, motorcycle is easier to take place accident than cars. Because the body of bikers has no protection, the rate of casualties is very high if any accident has happened. Determining the crash speed of vehicle is not only one of the main tasks of Traffic Accident Reconstruction, but also the premise and basis of determining responsibility.
Based on the research of practical problems encountered, status quo and demand in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle crash, and the results of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University, this paper mainly accomplished the work below:
The characteristics and causes leading to a vehicle-motorcycle crash accident are analyzed in this paper. Ten causes and three characteristics, including high rate of accidents, injuries and handling difficult, are got. Then the paper introduces the main types of motorcycle accidents, as well as the influences of the vehicle shape on motorcycle accident. Finally the paper investigates the main methods at home and overseas in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle accident, and analyzes their limitations. Vehicular velocity estimation models with high accuracy and practicality are established based on the real accident data, which is the goal of this paper. These accident data are obtained from some complete cases of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University since 2000.
Some models are established about the relation of road surface slide mark–collision speed and throwing distance–collision speed of biker or motorcycle in this paper. And this paper deduces a relatively complete physical theoretical formula, which makes up the shortcomings of lower accuracy and oversize speed estimate scope in particle kinematics model. Then the actual accident data are used to fit the parameters in the simplified formula. Finally some practical models are got. Coefficient of sample determination and the discrete level of scatter regression curve are used to validate the accuracy and precision of those models. Dummy collision test ground of vehicle-motorcycle is simulated by PC-Crash. Compared with the overseas test data and models, the paper verified the validity and accuracy of the simulation model.
Owing to using different vehicular velocity estimation models have different estimate values, the paper applied those models into an integrated model, and studied the weight of each sub-model. Two typical accident cases are reconstructed with the models which are founded in this paper.
Although the models are based on the data of low angle between motorcycle and automobile, they are also the same with the situation that motorcycle or biker is thrown out in motorcycle accidents. The research will improve the study on vehicular velocity estimation in vehicle-motorcycle crash. It also has some practical significance on road traffic accidents.
引文
[1] 冯家清,仲崇山.道路安全防患未然[J].新华日报,2004,8.
[2] 中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计年报(2007 年度)[M].北京:公安部交通管理局,2008.
[3] 路明.中国交通安全形势及其对策[J].交通企业管理,2006,12.
[4] Motorcycle road accidents. Great Britain:Department for Transport,1998.
[5] Motorcycle road accidents. Great Britain:Department for Transport,1999.
[6] Preusser DF,Williams AF and Ulmer RG. Analysis of fatal motorcycle crash typing. Accident Analysis and Prevention,1995,27(6):845-851.
[7] Quddus MA,Noland RB,Chin HC. An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models. Journal of Safety Research,2002,30(4):445-462.
[8] 中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计年报(2006 年度)[M].北京:公安部交通管理局,2007.
[9] 徐亚国.关于道路交通事故处理文件汇编[M].北京:警官教育出版社,1997.
[10] 王立.道路交通事故处理手册[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2001.
[11] 李兵.交通事故勘查与处理[M].人民交通出版社,1998.
[12] 陈琳.车辆滚翻事故再现轨迹模型及仿真的研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[13] 杨健.汽车翻滚事故三维仿真系统的研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[14] Nicholas M.Rogers.An overall Evaluation of UKDS motorcyclist leg protectors based on ISO 13232.
[15] Peter Savolainen.Fred Mannering.Motorcycle incorporates airbag system.SAE 1999-12-0448.
[16] 袁泉,李一兵.车辆碰撞事故再现技术研究的现状与发展方向[J].公路交通科技,2002,2.
[17] Moser A.Steffan H.,Kasarueky G.The Pedestrian Model in PC-Crash:TheIntroduction of a Multi Body System and Its Validation.SAE1999-01-0445.
[18] Day TD.An Overview of the HVE Human Model.SAE950659:333-339.
[19] Steffan H.,Moser A. Geogle BC..A New Approach to Occupant Simulation Through the Coupling of PC-Crash and MADYMO.SAE1999-01-0444.
[20] Day TD.Differences between EDVDS and Phase-4.SAE1999-01-0103.
[21] (日)江守一郎著,刘晞柏译.汽车事故工程[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1987.
[22] 萧树铁主编.大学数学实验[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.
[23] 卢纹岱主编.SPSS for Windows 统计分析[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2000.
[24] 李忠范,高文森.数理统计与随机过程[M].长春:吉林大学出版社,2000.
[25] 贾俊平,何晓群,金勇进编著.统计学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[26] http://www.nmgnews.com.cn 内蒙古新闻网(摩托车交通事故特点及对策初探),2004,11.
[27] 储建生等.二轮摩托车事故的特点、原因及对策[J].现代交通管理.1997,4.
[28] 建兰,冬平.摩托车事故上升的成因及预防[J].驾驶安全.2005,7.
[29] D.Otte.Technical Parameters for Determination of Impact Speed for Motorcycle Accidents and the Importance of Relative Speed on Injury Severity.Accident Research Unit Medical University Hannover, Germany.SAE2004-01-1216.
[30] 李莉.汽车与行人碰撞事故调查分析及仿真研究[D].湖南:湖南大学博士学位论文,2006.
[31] 李一兵.道路车辆交通事故再现分析理论与系统研究[D].北京:清华大学博士学位论文,2004.
[32] 许洪国,施树明等.交通安全技术研究的范围与发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,2.
[33] Peter Savolainen,Fred Mannering.Probabilistic models of motorcyclists’ injury severities in single- and multi-vehicle crashes.Accident Analysis and Prevention,2007.
[34] 许洪国.汽车事故工程[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[35] 许洪国,何彪.道路交通事故分析与再现[M].北京:警官教育出版社,1996.
[36] 许洪国,高延龄等.玻璃碎片抛距理论模型用于推算汽车碰撞速度的研究[J].汽车工程,1995,4.
[37] 王望予.汽车设计[M].机械工业出版社,2000.
[38] Braun,H.. Splitterwurfweiten. Eine experimentelle Untersuchung. der Verkehrsunfall,1980,2.
[39] 林庆峰.汽车碰撞散落物动力学仿真及试验研究[D].长春:吉林大学博士学位论文,2006.
[40] 许洪国,任有,王利芳.交通事故抛物地面碰撞力学参数的确定[J].公路交通科技,2003,2.
[41] 许洪国,任有,王利芳等.交通事故抛物广义抛距建模[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2003,3.
[42] Han , R . M . Brach . Impact throw model for vehicle-pedestrian collision reconstruction.Proceedings of the institution of Mechanical Engineers,2006.
[43] (日)林洋.实用汽车事故鉴定学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[44] Chrles Y. Warner etc. Friction application in accident reconstruction. SAE paper,No.830612,pt-34.
[45] Terry D. Day,Jay R Smith. Friction factor for motorcycle sliding on various surfaces. SAE paper,No. 840250.
[46] A. C. Damask. Forensic physics of vehicle accidents. Physics Today,1987,3.
[47] 徐涛.数值计算方法[M].吉林:吉林科学技术出版社,2002.
[48] 许洪国,高蔚,苏键等.汽车交通事故碰撞速度多值问题的研究[J].中国公路学报,1996,1.
[49] 刘华军.化工园安全水平评价指标体系研究[D].重庆:重庆大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[50] 殷春武.模糊多准则群决策方法研究[D].西安:西安理工大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[51] 李因果,李新春.综合评价模型权重确定方法研究[J].辽东学院学报(社会科学版),2007,4.
[52] 张艳,马川生,韦可.组合预测种权重的确定研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,4.
[53] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].湖北:华中科技大学出版社,2000.
[2] 中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计年报(2007 年度)[M].北京:公安部交通管理局,2008.
[3] 路明.中国交通安全形势及其对策[J].交通企业管理,2006,12.
[4] Motorcycle road accidents. Great Britain:Department for Transport,1998.
[5] Motorcycle road accidents. Great Britain:Department for Transport,1999.
[6] Preusser DF,Williams AF and Ulmer RG. Analysis of fatal motorcycle crash typing. Accident Analysis and Prevention,1995,27(6):845-851.
[7] Quddus MA,Noland RB,Chin HC. An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models. Journal of Safety Research,2002,30(4):445-462.
[8] 中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计年报(2006 年度)[M].北京:公安部交通管理局,2007.
[9] 徐亚国.关于道路交通事故处理文件汇编[M].北京:警官教育出版社,1997.
[10] 王立.道路交通事故处理手册[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2001.
[11] 李兵.交通事故勘查与处理[M].人民交通出版社,1998.
[12] 陈琳.车辆滚翻事故再现轨迹模型及仿真的研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[13] 杨健.汽车翻滚事故三维仿真系统的研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[14] Nicholas M.Rogers.An overall Evaluation of UKDS motorcyclist leg protectors based on ISO 13232.
[15] Peter Savolainen.Fred Mannering.Motorcycle incorporates airbag system.SAE 1999-12-0448.
[16] 袁泉,李一兵.车辆碰撞事故再现技术研究的现状与发展方向[J].公路交通科技,2002,2.
[17] Moser A.Steffan H.,Kasarueky G.The Pedestrian Model in PC-Crash:TheIntroduction of a Multi Body System and Its Validation.SAE1999-01-0445.
[18] Day TD.An Overview of the HVE Human Model.SAE950659:333-339.
[19] Steffan H.,Moser A. Geogle BC..A New Approach to Occupant Simulation Through the Coupling of PC-Crash and MADYMO.SAE1999-01-0444.
[20] Day TD.Differences between EDVDS and Phase-4.SAE1999-01-0103.
[21] (日)江守一郎著,刘晞柏译.汽车事故工程[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1987.
[22] 萧树铁主编.大学数学实验[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.
[23] 卢纹岱主编.SPSS for Windows 统计分析[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2000.
[24] 李忠范,高文森.数理统计与随机过程[M].长春:吉林大学出版社,2000.
[25] 贾俊平,何晓群,金勇进编著.统计学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[26] http://www.nmgnews.com.cn 内蒙古新闻网(摩托车交通事故特点及对策初探),2004,11.
[27] 储建生等.二轮摩托车事故的特点、原因及对策[J].现代交通管理.1997,4.
[28] 建兰,冬平.摩托车事故上升的成因及预防[J].驾驶安全.2005,7.
[29] D.Otte.Technical Parameters for Determination of Impact Speed for Motorcycle Accidents and the Importance of Relative Speed on Injury Severity.Accident Research Unit Medical University Hannover, Germany.SAE2004-01-1216.
[30] 李莉.汽车与行人碰撞事故调查分析及仿真研究[D].湖南:湖南大学博士学位论文,2006.
[31] 李一兵.道路车辆交通事故再现分析理论与系统研究[D].北京:清华大学博士学位论文,2004.
[32] 许洪国,施树明等.交通安全技术研究的范围与发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,2.
[33] Peter Savolainen,Fred Mannering.Probabilistic models of motorcyclists’ injury severities in single- and multi-vehicle crashes.Accident Analysis and Prevention,2007.
[34] 许洪国.汽车事故工程[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[35] 许洪国,何彪.道路交通事故分析与再现[M].北京:警官教育出版社,1996.
[36] 许洪国,高延龄等.玻璃碎片抛距理论模型用于推算汽车碰撞速度的研究[J].汽车工程,1995,4.
[37] 王望予.汽车设计[M].机械工业出版社,2000.
[38] Braun,H.. Splitterwurfweiten. Eine experimentelle Untersuchung. der Verkehrsunfall,1980,2.
[39] 林庆峰.汽车碰撞散落物动力学仿真及试验研究[D].长春:吉林大学博士学位论文,2006.
[40] 许洪国,任有,王利芳.交通事故抛物地面碰撞力学参数的确定[J].公路交通科技,2003,2.
[41] 许洪国,任有,王利芳等.交通事故抛物广义抛距建模[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2003,3.
[42] Han , R . M . Brach . Impact throw model for vehicle-pedestrian collision reconstruction.Proceedings of the institution of Mechanical Engineers,2006.
[43] (日)林洋.实用汽车事故鉴定学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[44] Chrles Y. Warner etc. Friction application in accident reconstruction. SAE paper,No.830612,pt-34.
[45] Terry D. Day,Jay R Smith. Friction factor for motorcycle sliding on various surfaces. SAE paper,No. 840250.
[46] A. C. Damask. Forensic physics of vehicle accidents. Physics Today,1987,3.
[47] 徐涛.数值计算方法[M].吉林:吉林科学技术出版社,2002.
[48] 许洪国,高蔚,苏键等.汽车交通事故碰撞速度多值问题的研究[J].中国公路学报,1996,1.
[49] 刘华军.化工园安全水平评价指标体系研究[D].重庆:重庆大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[50] 殷春武.模糊多准则群决策方法研究[D].西安:西安理工大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[51] 李因果,李新春.综合评价模型权重确定方法研究[J].辽东学院学报(社会科学版),2007,4.
[52] 张艳,马川生,韦可.组合预测种权重的确定研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,4.
[53] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].湖北:华中科技大学出版社,2000.