基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿企业安全诚信评价体系研究
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摘要
我国是一个以煤炭为主要能源的国家,也是煤炭资源大国,但在开采过程中未实现对灾害事故的有效控制,造成安全事故频发。纵观煤矿事故发生的原因,除煤炭赋存条件之外,安全意识淡薄、“三违”现象严重、措施不到位等等安全诚信缺失行为构成了煤矿安全事故频发的主要原因。因此,对煤矿企业开展安全诚信管理是抑制安全事故频发的重大举措。安全诚信评价是安全诚信管理工作的重要环节,搞好安全诚信评价对于完善煤矿安全工作格局、提高安全管理工作的针对性、提升煤矿安全监察工作绩效具有重要的理论意义和重大的现实意义。
通过运用系统评价理论和贝叶斯网络等多学科交叉理论,理论分析与实证研究相结合,对煤矿企业安全诚信评价体系进行深入地研究,为煤矿企业开展安全诚信评价提供理论支持和技术支撑。通过事故原因分析、专家访谈,在介绍评价指标体系建立原则、指标筛选的基础上,构建了煤矿企业安全诚信评价的指标体系。引入了贝叶斯网络理论,利用Bootstrap方法集结专家的主观意见,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿安全诚信评价模型。又在前人研究的基础上,进一步提出了提高煤矿企业安全诚信水平的对策。最后,对河南平禹煤电有限公司安全诚信状况进行评价,提出进一步提升该矿安全诚信的建议。
Coal is the main sources of energy in our country, and our country is great power in coal sources. The safety calamity has been frequently occurred, because the disaster is not controlled effectively during the exploitation. If we study causes of disasters, it is the main cause that the coal mine enterprises have not correctly behaviors in the safety integrity, such as the weakly safety consciousness, the serious appearance of“three non-observances”, the ineffective measures, besides the natural condition. In order to commending the disasters, it is a significant measure to launch the safety integrity management in coal mine enterprises. The safety integrity evaluation is the major part in the safety integrity management, therefore, it is significant in theory and actuality to perfect the style of arrangement in coalmine safety, to increase the directionality of safety management and to improve the performance of safety supervision.
The evaluation system of coalmine enterprise safety integrity was deeply studied with the use of system evaluation and Bayesian networks theories. Theoretical analysis and actuality research ware all applied during the study. This could provide theoretic and technical support to coalmine enterprises. After introducing the principles for building index system and sifting indexes, the evaluation index system of coalmine enterprises safety integrity was put forward, which was based on disaster analysis and seeking advices from experts. Bayesian networks theory was introduced, and then Coalmine safety integrity evaluation model based on Bayesian networks was built, which adopt the Bootstrap method for experts’subject probability aggregation. The measures to improve coalmine safety integrity ware put forward, which ware on the foundation of the preceding study. Finally, a case studied of the evaluation on the safety integrity situation in Henan Ping-yu coal & electricity co., LTD, and some advices to promote the level of the coalmine ware put forward.
通过运用系统评价理论和贝叶斯网络等多学科交叉理论,理论分析与实证研究相结合,对煤矿企业安全诚信评价体系进行深入地研究,为煤矿企业开展安全诚信评价提供理论支持和技术支撑。通过事故原因分析、专家访谈,在介绍评价指标体系建立原则、指标筛选的基础上,构建了煤矿企业安全诚信评价的指标体系。引入了贝叶斯网络理论,利用Bootstrap方法集结专家的主观意见,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿安全诚信评价模型。又在前人研究的基础上,进一步提出了提高煤矿企业安全诚信水平的对策。最后,对河南平禹煤电有限公司安全诚信状况进行评价,提出进一步提升该矿安全诚信的建议。
Coal is the main sources of energy in our country, and our country is great power in coal sources. The safety calamity has been frequently occurred, because the disaster is not controlled effectively during the exploitation. If we study causes of disasters, it is the main cause that the coal mine enterprises have not correctly behaviors in the safety integrity, such as the weakly safety consciousness, the serious appearance of“three non-observances”, the ineffective measures, besides the natural condition. In order to commending the disasters, it is a significant measure to launch the safety integrity management in coal mine enterprises. The safety integrity evaluation is the major part in the safety integrity management, therefore, it is significant in theory and actuality to perfect the style of arrangement in coalmine safety, to increase the directionality of safety management and to improve the performance of safety supervision.
The evaluation system of coalmine enterprise safety integrity was deeply studied with the use of system evaluation and Bayesian networks theories. Theoretical analysis and actuality research ware all applied during the study. This could provide theoretic and technical support to coalmine enterprises. After introducing the principles for building index system and sifting indexes, the evaluation index system of coalmine enterprises safety integrity was put forward, which was based on disaster analysis and seeking advices from experts. Bayesian networks theory was introduced, and then Coalmine safety integrity evaluation model based on Bayesian networks was built, which adopt the Bootstrap method for experts’subject probability aggregation. The measures to improve coalmine safety integrity ware put forward, which ware on the foundation of the preceding study. Finally, a case studied of the evaluation on the safety integrity situation in Henan Ping-yu coal & electricity co., LTD, and some advices to promote the level of the coalmine ware put forward.
引文
[1]景国勋,杨玉中.矿山重大危险源辨识、评价及预警技术[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2008.
[2]邓奇根,刘明举,赵发军.2008年我国煤矿事故统计分析及防范措施[J].煤炭技术,2010,29(6),14-16.
[3]徐金燕.地方煤矿安全事故多发的原因与对策分析[J].湖南安全与防灾,2010(6),8-11.
[4]国家煤矿安全监察局事故调查司.上半年煤矿安全事故统计[EB/OL].http://www.86mk.com
[5]北京安全防范行业协会.北京安全防范行业协会企业诚信评价管理办法[EB/OL]. http://www.c-ps.net.
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[7]张树良,赵广兴,王国际.煤矿安全管理[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2008.
[8]卢飞霞.大学生诚信及诚信评价指标研究[D].浙江大学,2009.
[9]颜珂.大学生诚信问题分析及教育对策思考[D].西南大学,2008.
[10]方洪全.国有商业银行信用风险评估方法及应用研究[D].电子科技大学,2004.
[11]赵刚.国有银行信用卡业务信用风险管理研究[D].东北师范大学,2007.
[12]于巧珍.中小企业诚信评价体系研究[D].西安科技大学,2008.
[13]戴婷.企业诚信度的贝叶斯估计研究[J].数学理论与应用,2008,28(3),35-39.
[14]泰州市安全生产生产监督管理局,泰州市工业企业安全生产诚信评估管理办法(试行)[EB/OL].http://www.safehoo.com/Laws/Local/Jiangsu
[15]江苏省镇江市人民政府办公室,镇江市安全诚信企业评选管理办法(试行)[EB/OL].http://www.chinalawedu.com/news.
[16]中国海事局,航运公司安全诚信管理办法(试行)[EB/OL].http://www.shmsa.gov.cn.
[17]黄树兴.航运公司安全诚信管理综合评价的研究[D].大连海事大学,2009.
[18]皮台田,张安祥.安全生产诚信评价管理实践与探索[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008,4(6),143-146.
[19]杜乐清.浅谈诚信体系建设与事故预防[C].中国职业安全健康协会2008年学术年会,中国海口,2008.
[20]朱胜.略论企业诚信评价体系的建立[J].统计教育,2005(06),13-154.
[21]王社平,刘尚林,班士杰等.煤矿安全诚信管理[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2009.
[22]王伟,孔晋华,张栩.建立煤矿企业安全生产诚信机制的探讨[J].中国煤矿,2008,34(5),80-84.
[23]陈腊根.煤矿企业的安全诚信问题及对策[J].江西煤矿科技,2005(2):73-74.
[24]林冰.建立煤矿安全诚信机制[J].劳动保护,2006(12),26-27.
[25]冯芸.西方诚信观念及其对我国诚信社会建设的意义[J].山东省青年管理干部学院学报,2010(2),14-18.
[26] Ahmet, Muhittin, Arnold, Reha. A credit scoring approach for the commercial banking sector[J].Socil-Economic Planning Sciences, 2003(37),103-123.
[27] Malcomsom Work Incentive, Hierarchy and Internal Markets[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2001,92:486-507.
[28] Global Credit Research[R]. Moody Investor Service.2000.
[29]李江.煤矿动态安全评价及预测技术研究[D].中国矿业大学,2008.
[30]陈绍金.水安全系统评价、预警与调控研究[D].河海大学,2005.
[31]郑国平.基于贝叶斯网络的地方政府绩效评估的研究[D].厦门大学,2009.
[32]王双成.贝叶斯网络学习、推理与应用[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2010.
[33] Samuel Kotz,吴喜之.现代贝叶斯统计学[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2000.
[34] Thomas Leonard, John S.J.Hsu.贝叶斯方法(英文版)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005.
[35]邓永录.应用概率及其理论基础[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[36]邰淑彩,孙韫玉,何娟娟.应用数理统计[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2005.
[37] Kwabena Adusei-Poku. Operational Risk management: Implementing a Bayesian Network for Foreign Exchange and Money Market Settlement [D]. The Faculty of Economics and Business Administration of the University of G?ottingen, G?ottingen, 2005.
[38] M G Morgan, M Henrion. Uncertainty: A guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis[M]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
[39] D V Winterfeldt, W Edwards. Decision Analysis and Behavioural Research[M]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986.
[40] Gaag L C, Renooij S, and Witteman C L. Probabilities for a probabilistic network: a case study in oesophageal cancer[J]. Arti-cial Intelligence Med, 2002, 25 (2) :123-148.
[41] Mark J Vanderlaan, Jenny Bryan. Gene expression analysis with the parametric Bootstrap[J]. Biostatistics, 2001, 2(4) : 445-461.
[42] Atsushi Inoue, Lutz kilian. Bootstrapping Autoregressive processes with possible unit boots[J]. Econometrica, 2002, 70(1): 377-391.
[43]任仕泉,陈峰,杨树勤.多层次结构数据的Bootstrap方法研究[J].统计研究, 2002, 3(3) : 55-59.
[44]王晶.基于Bootstrap方法的多品种小批量生产的质量控制研究[D].天津大学,2006.
[45]孙佳美,段白鸽.Bootstrap方法在死亡模型中的应用[J].统计研究, 2010, 27(6) : 100-105.
[46] Hugh Shanahan. An introduction to the Bootstrap method[C], University College London, 2001.
[47]茅宁. Bootstrap方法及其应用[J].国防科技大学学报, 1985,52(4) : 65-80.
[48] Yahya Y. Bayraktarli, Jens-Peder Ulfkjaer et al. On the Application of Bayesian Probabilistic Networks for Earthquake Risk Management[C]. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rotterdam,2005.
[49] J.E.Martin, T.Rivas J,M. Matias et al. A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height[J]. Safety Science, 2009, 47(2): 206-214.
[50] Daniel Straub. Natural hazards risk assessment using Bayesian networks[C]. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rotterdam,2005.
[51]林威.贝叶斯网络在地震综合预报中的研究与应用[D].福州大学,2005.
[52]戴朝寿.概率论简明教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008.
[53]杨荣,郑文瑞,王本玉.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[54]林鸿熙,郑露曦,张向前.美国诚信体系建设对我国的启示[J].科技和产业2009,9(12),120-125.
[55]李灿文,煤矿从业人员素质调查及对策探讨[EB/OL].http://www.mkaq.org
[56]钱进勇,刘建勋,煤矿安全事故自身原因分析与预防措施[J].科技创新导报2010(18),85-86.
[57]国家安全生产监督管理局研究中心,中国煤炭工业发展研究中心.全国国有煤矿安全保障能力调研报告(2004)[R]. http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/
[2]邓奇根,刘明举,赵发军.2008年我国煤矿事故统计分析及防范措施[J].煤炭技术,2010,29(6),14-16.
[3]徐金燕.地方煤矿安全事故多发的原因与对策分析[J].湖南安全与防灾,2010(6),8-11.
[4]国家煤矿安全监察局事故调查司.上半年煤矿安全事故统计[EB/OL].http://www.86mk.com
[5]北京安全防范行业协会.北京安全防范行业协会企业诚信评价管理办法[EB/OL]. http://www.c-ps.net.
[6]王公山.先秦儒家诚信思想研究[D].山东大学,2005.
[7]张树良,赵广兴,王国际.煤矿安全管理[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2008.
[8]卢飞霞.大学生诚信及诚信评价指标研究[D].浙江大学,2009.
[9]颜珂.大学生诚信问题分析及教育对策思考[D].西南大学,2008.
[10]方洪全.国有商业银行信用风险评估方法及应用研究[D].电子科技大学,2004.
[11]赵刚.国有银行信用卡业务信用风险管理研究[D].东北师范大学,2007.
[12]于巧珍.中小企业诚信评价体系研究[D].西安科技大学,2008.
[13]戴婷.企业诚信度的贝叶斯估计研究[J].数学理论与应用,2008,28(3),35-39.
[14]泰州市安全生产生产监督管理局,泰州市工业企业安全生产诚信评估管理办法(试行)[EB/OL].http://www.safehoo.com/Laws/Local/Jiangsu
[15]江苏省镇江市人民政府办公室,镇江市安全诚信企业评选管理办法(试行)[EB/OL].http://www.chinalawedu.com/news.
[16]中国海事局,航运公司安全诚信管理办法(试行)[EB/OL].http://www.shmsa.gov.cn.
[17]黄树兴.航运公司安全诚信管理综合评价的研究[D].大连海事大学,2009.
[18]皮台田,张安祥.安全生产诚信评价管理实践与探索[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008,4(6),143-146.
[19]杜乐清.浅谈诚信体系建设与事故预防[C].中国职业安全健康协会2008年学术年会,中国海口,2008.
[20]朱胜.略论企业诚信评价体系的建立[J].统计教育,2005(06),13-154.
[21]王社平,刘尚林,班士杰等.煤矿安全诚信管理[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2009.
[22]王伟,孔晋华,张栩.建立煤矿企业安全生产诚信机制的探讨[J].中国煤矿,2008,34(5),80-84.
[23]陈腊根.煤矿企业的安全诚信问题及对策[J].江西煤矿科技,2005(2):73-74.
[24]林冰.建立煤矿安全诚信机制[J].劳动保护,2006(12),26-27.
[25]冯芸.西方诚信观念及其对我国诚信社会建设的意义[J].山东省青年管理干部学院学报,2010(2),14-18.
[26] Ahmet, Muhittin, Arnold, Reha. A credit scoring approach for the commercial banking sector[J].Socil-Economic Planning Sciences, 2003(37),103-123.
[27] Malcomsom Work Incentive, Hierarchy and Internal Markets[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2001,92:486-507.
[28] Global Credit Research[R]. Moody Investor Service.2000.
[29]李江.煤矿动态安全评价及预测技术研究[D].中国矿业大学,2008.
[30]陈绍金.水安全系统评价、预警与调控研究[D].河海大学,2005.
[31]郑国平.基于贝叶斯网络的地方政府绩效评估的研究[D].厦门大学,2009.
[32]王双成.贝叶斯网络学习、推理与应用[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2010.
[33] Samuel Kotz,吴喜之.现代贝叶斯统计学[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2000.
[34] Thomas Leonard, John S.J.Hsu.贝叶斯方法(英文版)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005.
[35]邓永录.应用概率及其理论基础[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[36]邰淑彩,孙韫玉,何娟娟.应用数理统计[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2005.
[37] Kwabena Adusei-Poku. Operational Risk management: Implementing a Bayesian Network for Foreign Exchange and Money Market Settlement [D]. The Faculty of Economics and Business Administration of the University of G?ottingen, G?ottingen, 2005.
[38] M G Morgan, M Henrion. Uncertainty: A guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis[M]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
[39] D V Winterfeldt, W Edwards. Decision Analysis and Behavioural Research[M]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986.
[40] Gaag L C, Renooij S, and Witteman C L. Probabilities for a probabilistic network: a case study in oesophageal cancer[J]. Arti-cial Intelligence Med, 2002, 25 (2) :123-148.
[41] Mark J Vanderlaan, Jenny Bryan. Gene expression analysis with the parametric Bootstrap[J]. Biostatistics, 2001, 2(4) : 445-461.
[42] Atsushi Inoue, Lutz kilian. Bootstrapping Autoregressive processes with possible unit boots[J]. Econometrica, 2002, 70(1): 377-391.
[43]任仕泉,陈峰,杨树勤.多层次结构数据的Bootstrap方法研究[J].统计研究, 2002, 3(3) : 55-59.
[44]王晶.基于Bootstrap方法的多品种小批量生产的质量控制研究[D].天津大学,2006.
[45]孙佳美,段白鸽.Bootstrap方法在死亡模型中的应用[J].统计研究, 2010, 27(6) : 100-105.
[46] Hugh Shanahan. An introduction to the Bootstrap method[C], University College London, 2001.
[47]茅宁. Bootstrap方法及其应用[J].国防科技大学学报, 1985,52(4) : 65-80.
[48] Yahya Y. Bayraktarli, Jens-Peder Ulfkjaer et al. On the Application of Bayesian Probabilistic Networks for Earthquake Risk Management[C]. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rotterdam,2005.
[49] J.E.Martin, T.Rivas J,M. Matias et al. A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height[J]. Safety Science, 2009, 47(2): 206-214.
[50] Daniel Straub. Natural hazards risk assessment using Bayesian networks[C]. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rotterdam,2005.
[51]林威.贝叶斯网络在地震综合预报中的研究与应用[D].福州大学,2005.
[52]戴朝寿.概率论简明教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008.
[53]杨荣,郑文瑞,王本玉.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[54]林鸿熙,郑露曦,张向前.美国诚信体系建设对我国的启示[J].科技和产业2009,9(12),120-125.
[55]李灿文,煤矿从业人员素质调查及对策探讨[EB/OL].http://www.mkaq.org
[56]钱进勇,刘建勋,煤矿安全事故自身原因分析与预防措施[J].科技创新导报2010(18),85-86.
[57]国家安全生产监督管理局研究中心,中国煤炭工业发展研究中心.全国国有煤矿安全保障能力调研报告(2004)[R]. http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/