北极Svalbard地区Austre Lovenbreen和Pedersenbreen冰川物质平衡及其与气候变化关系研究
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摘要
冰川是气候变化敏感的指示器。Svalbard地区特殊的地理位置使之成为北极对气候变化响应最明显、最迅速的地区之一,对该地区的研究有助于理解北极冰川与全球气候变化之间的关系。以2005年我国开始观测的Svalbard地区Austre Lovénbreen和Pedersenbreen冰川为研究对象,讨论了两条冰川2005-2010年间的最新的物质平衡、平衡线高度等的变化特征,并分析其与气候变化的关系及对气候变化的敏感性。同时,对WGMS监测的该地区其他主要冰川的物质平衡及累积变化特征进行了研究,有助于同本文研究的主要对象进行对比分析。主要研究结果如下:
(1)1987-2007年间,Svalbard地区主要冰川变化特征表现为:①冰川的年净物质平衡值与平衡线高度年际变化波动不存在明显的规律性,但都表现出大致相同的变化趋势。所观测的五条冰川大都处于负物质平衡状态,累积物质平衡值不断减小,且有加速减小的趋势。反映了该地区冰川对气候变化响应的一致性。②五条冰川年平均净物质平衡值分别为-0.55 m w.e./a、-0.43 m w.e./a、-0.12 m w.e./a、-0.37 m w.e./a和-0.65m w.e./a,年平均平衡线高度分别为441m、407m、565m、349m和423m,平衡线高度与净物质平衡之间表现出高度的负相关性。
(2)Austre Lovénbreen和Pedersenbreen冰川2005-2010年物质平衡及平衡线高度等的最新变化特征表现为:①两条冰川的年净物质平衡值表现出相同的变化趋势,但不存在明显的规律性。平均年净物质平衡值分别为-0.15 m w.e./a和0.11m w.e./a,存在较大差异。②两条冰川的累积物质平衡值存在差别巨大。Austre Lovénbreen冰川在2005~2010年间始终处于负物质平衡状态,而Pedersenbreen冰川在2005~2007年处于负物质平衡状态,2007年以后表现为正物质平衡状态,且有加速增长的趋势。③两条冰川年平均平衡线高度分别为399.2m和444.32m,平衡线高度与年净物质平衡值均表现为高度负相关性,且年际变化均较大。年净物质平衡值对平衡线高度的敏感性分别为-0.51m w.e./100m和-0.47m w.e./100m,保持稳定。积累区面积比率与年净物质平衡值变化趋势一致。④年平均消融量分别为-1.11 m w.e./a和-1.01m w.e./a,Pedersenbreen冰川略小。年平均积累量分别为0.97 m w.e./a和1.16m w.e./a,最大积累出现在相同年份。⑤Pedersenbreen冰川年平均运动速度明显大于Austre Lovénbreen冰川。冰川表面观测点的运动方向均表现为向冰川主流线幅和或平行于冰川主流线方向运动。⑥Austre Lovénbreen冰川末端退缩年际变化很大,平均退缩量为11.63m/a。最大退缩量大致都位于冰川中部的控制点处,而最小退缩量的控制点则没有明显固定的位置。
(3)Ny-(?)lesund地区气候变化特征及其与Austre Lovénbreen和Pedersenbreen冰川变化关系进行研究表明:①Ny-(?)lesund地区的日平均气温的年际变化不明显。冬季气温的变化幅度较大,而夏季气温变化幅度则以细小波动为主。②降水量的变化总体呈现出夏季降水较少,冬季降水较多的特点,年降水总量差别较大。③冰川年净物质平衡值和平衡线高度与气温和冬季降水之间不存在简单的线性相关。冰川消融对气温1℃增温的敏感性分别为0.53 m w.e./a和0.55m w.e./a。冰川积累对年降雪量10%增量的敏感性分别为0.17 m/a和0.26m/a。两条冰川平衡1℃增温产生的冰川消融量分别需要增加大约31.9%和21.3%的年降雪量。表明影响Austre Lovénbreen冰川物质平衡值的主要气象条件是气温,而对Pedersenbreen冰川影响较大的是年降雪量④平衡线高度对气温1℃增温的敏感性分别为185.10 m/a和77.53m/a,对10%年降雪增量的敏感性分别为-19.97 m/a和-32.87m/a。两条冰川平衡1℃增温产生的平衡线高度变化分别需要增加大约92.7%和23.6%的年降雪量。因此,在对平衡线高度的影响上,气温的影响似乎要更大一些。
Glaciers are sensitive indicator of climate change. Svalbard’s special geographic location makes it to be one of the most rapidly place to response to climate change in the Arctic. The research in this area may help to understand the relationship between the Arctic glaciers and global climate change. The glaciers Austre Lovénbreen and Pedersenbreen are the research objects, which are observed from 2005 by us in Svalbard. The latest (2005-2010) variation characteristics of mass balance, equilibrium line altitude etc., the relationship with climate change and the sensitivity to climate change are analyzed. Furthermore, the characteristics of mass balance of other major glaciers monitored by WGMS in this region are discussed, the main results are as follows:
(1)The major glaciers’variation characteristics in Svalbard between 1987-2007 are:①there is no significant long-term fluctuations regularity in the annual net mass balance of glaciers and the equilibrium line altitude, but they show the similar trends. Most of the observed glaciers’mass balance is negative, the cumulative mass balance continues to fall, and the accelerating trend is decreasing, which reflects the same response to climate change of the glaciers in this area.②the average mass balance of the five glaciers are -0.55 m w.e ./ a, -0.43 m w.e ./ a, -0.12 m w.e ./ a, -0.37 m w.e ./ a and-0.65m w.e ./ a, and the average equilibrium line altitude are 441m, 407m, 565m, 349 mand 423m respectively. The equilibrium line altitude and the net mass balance show a high negative correlation during the observation period.
(2) During the period of 2005-2010, the characteristics of mass balance and equilibrium line altitude etc. of Austre Lovénbreen and Pedersenbreen as follows:① the variation of annual net mass balance of the two glaciers showed the same trend, but there is no obvious trend. The average annual net mass balance are -0.15 m w.e./a and 0.11m w.e./a, there is a big difference.②the accumulated value of the mass balance of the two glaciers are very different. Austre Lovénbreen always shows a negative mass balance state between 2005 and 2010, but Pedersenbreen shows a negative mass balance from 2005 to 2007, then it shows all positive, and the growth trend is accelerating.③the average equilibrium line altitude of them are 399.2m and 444.32m respectively. There is a high negative correlation between the equilibrium line altitude and mass balance, the interannual changes are both large. The sensitivity of annual net mass balance to equilibrium line altitude are -0.51m w.e. / 100m and-0.47m w.e. / 100m, remain stable. Accumulation area ratio and net mass balance show the same trend.④the average annual ablation volume are -1.11 m w.e. /a and -1.01m w.e. /a, the value of Pedersenbreen is smaller. The average accumulations are 0.97 m w.e. / a and 1.12m w.e. / a, and the maximum accumulation occurs in the same year.⑤Pedersenbreen’s average annual surface velocity is significantly greater than Austre Lovénbreen. The movement direction of points in the surface of glacier is found to converge to the central line of glaciers or be parallel to it.⑥The interannual retreat of Austre Lovénbreen vary greatly, the average value is 11.63m / a. The largest amount of retreat is generally located in the central of the glacier, and the minimum one have not significantly fixed position.
(3)The characteristics of climate change in Ny-?lesund and the relationship between the variation of Austre Lovénbreen and Pedersenbreen glaciers show that:①The annual daily average temperature did not change significantly in Ny-?lesund. The daily temperature vary greatly in winter, while it luffing smaller in summer.②The feature of precipitation is less precipitation in summer, and more precipitation in winter. The annual total precipitation has a big change.③There is no simple linear correlation between the mass balance , the equilibrium line altitude and daily temperatures and annual snowfall. The ablation sensitivity to daily temperatures increase of +1℃are 0.53 m w.e. / a and 0.55m w.e. / a. The accumulation sensitivity to snowfall increase of +10% are 0.17 m / a and 0.26m / a respectively. 31.9% and 21.3% of annual snowfall are needed to offset the loss of mass balance induced by daily temperatures increase of +1℃. So, the major weather conditions influence the mass balance of Austre Lovénbreen is daily temperatures, as for Pedersenbreen is annual snowfall.④The equilibrium line altitude sensitivity to daily temperatures increase of +1℃are 185.10 m / a and 77.53m / a, and to annual snowfall increase of 10% are -19.97 m / a and-32.87m / a. 92.7% and 23.6% of annual snowfall are needed to offset the change of equilibrium line altitude influenced by the temperatures increase of +1℃.So, the temperatures seems to be the main impact on equilibrium line altitude.
(1)1987-2007年间,Svalbard地区主要冰川变化特征表现为:①冰川的年净物质平衡值与平衡线高度年际变化波动不存在明显的规律性,但都表现出大致相同的变化趋势。所观测的五条冰川大都处于负物质平衡状态,累积物质平衡值不断减小,且有加速减小的趋势。反映了该地区冰川对气候变化响应的一致性。②五条冰川年平均净物质平衡值分别为-0.55 m w.e./a、-0.43 m w.e./a、-0.12 m w.e./a、-0.37 m w.e./a和-0.65m w.e./a,年平均平衡线高度分别为441m、407m、565m、349m和423m,平衡线高度与净物质平衡之间表现出高度的负相关性。
(2)Austre Lovénbreen和Pedersenbreen冰川2005-2010年物质平衡及平衡线高度等的最新变化特征表现为:①两条冰川的年净物质平衡值表现出相同的变化趋势,但不存在明显的规律性。平均年净物质平衡值分别为-0.15 m w.e./a和0.11m w.e./a,存在较大差异。②两条冰川的累积物质平衡值存在差别巨大。Austre Lovénbreen冰川在2005~2010年间始终处于负物质平衡状态,而Pedersenbreen冰川在2005~2007年处于负物质平衡状态,2007年以后表现为正物质平衡状态,且有加速增长的趋势。③两条冰川年平均平衡线高度分别为399.2m和444.32m,平衡线高度与年净物质平衡值均表现为高度负相关性,且年际变化均较大。年净物质平衡值对平衡线高度的敏感性分别为-0.51m w.e./100m和-0.47m w.e./100m,保持稳定。积累区面积比率与年净物质平衡值变化趋势一致。④年平均消融量分别为-1.11 m w.e./a和-1.01m w.e./a,Pedersenbreen冰川略小。年平均积累量分别为0.97 m w.e./a和1.16m w.e./a,最大积累出现在相同年份。⑤Pedersenbreen冰川年平均运动速度明显大于Austre Lovénbreen冰川。冰川表面观测点的运动方向均表现为向冰川主流线幅和或平行于冰川主流线方向运动。⑥Austre Lovénbreen冰川末端退缩年际变化很大,平均退缩量为11.63m/a。最大退缩量大致都位于冰川中部的控制点处,而最小退缩量的控制点则没有明显固定的位置。
(3)Ny-(?)lesund地区气候变化特征及其与Austre Lovénbreen和Pedersenbreen冰川变化关系进行研究表明:①Ny-(?)lesund地区的日平均气温的年际变化不明显。冬季气温的变化幅度较大,而夏季气温变化幅度则以细小波动为主。②降水量的变化总体呈现出夏季降水较少,冬季降水较多的特点,年降水总量差别较大。③冰川年净物质平衡值和平衡线高度与气温和冬季降水之间不存在简单的线性相关。冰川消融对气温1℃增温的敏感性分别为0.53 m w.e./a和0.55m w.e./a。冰川积累对年降雪量10%增量的敏感性分别为0.17 m/a和0.26m/a。两条冰川平衡1℃增温产生的冰川消融量分别需要增加大约31.9%和21.3%的年降雪量。表明影响Austre Lovénbreen冰川物质平衡值的主要气象条件是气温,而对Pedersenbreen冰川影响较大的是年降雪量④平衡线高度对气温1℃增温的敏感性分别为185.10 m/a和77.53m/a,对10%年降雪增量的敏感性分别为-19.97 m/a和-32.87m/a。两条冰川平衡1℃增温产生的平衡线高度变化分别需要增加大约92.7%和23.6%的年降雪量。因此,在对平衡线高度的影响上,气温的影响似乎要更大一些。
Glaciers are sensitive indicator of climate change. Svalbard’s special geographic location makes it to be one of the most rapidly place to response to climate change in the Arctic. The research in this area may help to understand the relationship between the Arctic glaciers and global climate change. The glaciers Austre Lovénbreen and Pedersenbreen are the research objects, which are observed from 2005 by us in Svalbard. The latest (2005-2010) variation characteristics of mass balance, equilibrium line altitude etc., the relationship with climate change and the sensitivity to climate change are analyzed. Furthermore, the characteristics of mass balance of other major glaciers monitored by WGMS in this region are discussed, the main results are as follows:
(1)The major glaciers’variation characteristics in Svalbard between 1987-2007 are:①there is no significant long-term fluctuations regularity in the annual net mass balance of glaciers and the equilibrium line altitude, but they show the similar trends. Most of the observed glaciers’mass balance is negative, the cumulative mass balance continues to fall, and the accelerating trend is decreasing, which reflects the same response to climate change of the glaciers in this area.②the average mass balance of the five glaciers are -0.55 m w.e ./ a, -0.43 m w.e ./ a, -0.12 m w.e ./ a, -0.37 m w.e ./ a and-0.65m w.e ./ a, and the average equilibrium line altitude are 441m, 407m, 565m, 349 mand 423m respectively. The equilibrium line altitude and the net mass balance show a high negative correlation during the observation period.
(2) During the period of 2005-2010, the characteristics of mass balance and equilibrium line altitude etc. of Austre Lovénbreen and Pedersenbreen as follows:① the variation of annual net mass balance of the two glaciers showed the same trend, but there is no obvious trend. The average annual net mass balance are -0.15 m w.e./a and 0.11m w.e./a, there is a big difference.②the accumulated value of the mass balance of the two glaciers are very different. Austre Lovénbreen always shows a negative mass balance state between 2005 and 2010, but Pedersenbreen shows a negative mass balance from 2005 to 2007, then it shows all positive, and the growth trend is accelerating.③the average equilibrium line altitude of them are 399.2m and 444.32m respectively. There is a high negative correlation between the equilibrium line altitude and mass balance, the interannual changes are both large. The sensitivity of annual net mass balance to equilibrium line altitude are -0.51m w.e. / 100m and-0.47m w.e. / 100m, remain stable. Accumulation area ratio and net mass balance show the same trend.④the average annual ablation volume are -1.11 m w.e. /a and -1.01m w.e. /a, the value of Pedersenbreen is smaller. The average accumulations are 0.97 m w.e. / a and 1.12m w.e. / a, and the maximum accumulation occurs in the same year.⑤Pedersenbreen’s average annual surface velocity is significantly greater than Austre Lovénbreen. The movement direction of points in the surface of glacier is found to converge to the central line of glaciers or be parallel to it.⑥The interannual retreat of Austre Lovénbreen vary greatly, the average value is 11.63m / a. The largest amount of retreat is generally located in the central of the glacier, and the minimum one have not significantly fixed position.
(3)The characteristics of climate change in Ny-?lesund and the relationship between the variation of Austre Lovénbreen and Pedersenbreen glaciers show that:①The annual daily average temperature did not change significantly in Ny-?lesund. The daily temperature vary greatly in winter, while it luffing smaller in summer.②The feature of precipitation is less precipitation in summer, and more precipitation in winter. The annual total precipitation has a big change.③There is no simple linear correlation between the mass balance , the equilibrium line altitude and daily temperatures and annual snowfall. The ablation sensitivity to daily temperatures increase of +1℃are 0.53 m w.e. / a and 0.55m w.e. / a. The accumulation sensitivity to snowfall increase of +10% are 0.17 m / a and 0.26m / a respectively. 31.9% and 21.3% of annual snowfall are needed to offset the loss of mass balance induced by daily temperatures increase of +1℃. So, the major weather conditions influence the mass balance of Austre Lovénbreen is daily temperatures, as for Pedersenbreen is annual snowfall.④The equilibrium line altitude sensitivity to daily temperatures increase of +1℃are 185.10 m / a and 77.53m / a, and to annual snowfall increase of 10% are -19.97 m / a and-32.87m / a. 92.7% and 23.6% of annual snowfall are needed to offset the change of equilibrium line altitude influenced by the temperatures increase of +1℃.So, the temperatures seems to be the main impact on equilibrium line altitude.
引文
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