农业旱灾脆弱性及其风险管理研究
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摘要
伴随着世界各国工业化和城镇化的步伐,全球气候面临着严峻的挑战。特别是近年来全球气候变暖加快,天气急剧变动引发农业自然灾害频发,旱灾发生的频度及破坏性程度呈愈演愈烈之势。我国是一个干旱灾害明显的国度,特别是干旱持续时间长、范围广、旱情重等给农业生产造成很大影响。2009年春天的黄淮海平原大旱,以及2009年秋冬至2010年春天的西南特大重度旱灾给我国农业生产与粮食安全构成了严重威胁。较高的旱灾发生频率与严重的损失导致众多学者越来越重视旱灾脆弱性问题的研究。干旱灾害是旱灾风险和社会经济脆弱性相互作用的结果。减灾应从减小致灾因子的风险性和降低灾害脆弱性两方面入手。因此,对农业旱灾脆弱性进行测度,分析农业旱灾脆弱性的原因,找出降低农业旱灾脆弱性的方法,探索防范和化解旱灾风险的途径,已成为一项刻不容缓的课题。
本文选取了旱灾脆弱性作为研究方向,首先对农业旱灾脆弱性生成与演变规律进行阐述。然后以孝感市为研究领域,从社会经济的视角设计一个核心的旱灾脆弱性评价指数,基于层次分析法对农业旱灾脆弱性进行模糊综合评价,并运用主成分分析法深入分析影响旱灾脆弱性的社会经济因素。在此基础上实地调查孝感市农户对干旱指数保险的支付意愿。最后,在理论分析和定量评价孝感市农业旱灾脆弱性的基础上,从农户视角、金融产品创新视角及政府视角探索旱灾风险管理的对策措施。这对于农业系统防旱抗旱治旱具有重要意义,也可以为政府相应的减灾政策措施的制定和实施提供理论依据。本研究拟开发两个潜在的政策计划：一是从被动应对的危机管理方法到主动的风险管理方法的转变,这种转变通过建立干旱灾害安全网来实现,能有效防范或减轻旱灾的形成与破坏影响。二是基于风险转移和风险保护机制的干旱指数保险和天气衍生品的实验实施。
全文共分8章。
第1章导论。主要从选题背景,基本概念的界定,国内外文献评述,研究目的与意义,研究思路与方法及文章的基本框架结构等方面进行了简单的概括和总结。
第2章对农业旱灾脆弱性生成与演变规律进行阐述。本章先从宏观上对农业旱灾系统的构成进行了分析,农业旱灾系统包括致灾因子子系统、孕灾环境子系统、承灾体子系统与人类社会经济子系统4个部分。在此基础上,本章重点从微观、中观与宏观3个视角阐述了农业旱灾脆弱性的特殊生成机制。最后对农业旱灾脆弱性到干旱灾害的演化机制进行了分析：其一是内在生成机制；其二是外在冲击机制。
第3章是农业旱灾脆弱性评价。以孝感市7个县市为研究领域,构建孝感农业旱灾脆弱性评价指标体系和评价模型,对孝感市农业旱灾脆弱性进行评价。研究结果表明,孝感市农业旱灾脆弱性存在明显的差异性,7个县市中大悟的旱灾脆弱性程度最高,这表示大悟县干旱灾害风险性最强,是旱灾风险管理的重点区域。
第4章分析农业旱灾脆弱性动态变化成因。针对研究区农业旱灾脆弱性的时间变化,运用主成分分析方法进行实证研究,分析各影响因素与旱灾脆弱性的相关关系与影响程度的大小。
第5章立足农户视角,设计调查问卷,以湖北省孝感市273个农户的调查数据为依据,通过Logistic回归模型对农户的干旱保险的支付意愿及其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明：被调查农户农业干旱保险意愿不强,其中72.5%的农户没有支付意愿,有支付意愿的农户愿意支付的保险费也相当低,平均只有每亩12元。在所列举的影响因素中,受教育程度、耕地面积、对农业干旱保险的认知程度、对保险公司的信任程度及对政府农业保险补贴的态度等5个因素对农户支付意愿具有显著的影响。政策建议：加大对农村的人力资本投资；增加农民收入,提高支付能力；加强农业干旱指数保险的宣传教育工作；探讨合理的农业保险补贴方式和标准；加强天气指数保险研究力度,积极推进天气指数保险试点工作。
第6章从金融产品创新视角来探索旱灾风险管理。在介绍国外农业天气指数保险与天气衍生品的实施情况与经验的基础上,阐述了我国设计天气指数保险与天气衍生品的必要性与可行性,最后设计了干旱指数保险及运用天气衍生工具套期保值干旱灾害风险。
第7章从几个方面阐述了政府防御农业旱灾的政策建议。主要包括：建设农业旱灾监测预警体系；构建基于利益相关者的干旱灾害安全网；加强农田水利基础设施的建设；推进旱灾保险制度；加快农业产业结构调整,发展旱作农业。
第8章是总结与展望。论文对前面章节的内容进行了总结和归纳,提出了研究结论和不足之处,并对下一步研究提出了展望。
论文基本结论认为,旱灾影响在很大程度上取决于旱灾发生时社会的脆弱性,干旱灾害是旱灾风险和社会脆弱性相互作用的结果。人均GDP、人均耕地面积、耕地灌溉率、农民工资性收入占比、财政总收入、财政总支出、全社会固定资产投资、教育支出占财政支出比例等因素都是影响农业旱灾脆弱性的重要指标。合适的风险管理方式能有效帮助农民应对天气灾难,减轻脆弱性程度,从而减轻灾难损失。如天气指数保险和天气衍生品都能提供强有力的支持,缓冲人们可能遇到的风险损失。同时,这些风险产品的使用也能潜在提升政策决策者及普通民众的风险意识,促使人们主动采取措施应对风险而不是消极等待风险的发生。在我国缺乏有效的农业保险市场的背景下,政府的参与在防旱抗灾工作中起着非常重要的作用,如政府补贴等。当然,政府的干预也会产生一些消极影响,如寻租、道德风险及挤出效应等问题,因此,提高信息的透明度、降低行政成本及提高旱灾风险管理的技术水平等举措至关重要。
论文可能的创新点在于：其一,论文以旱灾脆弱性作为切入点系统阐述农业旱灾风险管理的路径。在农业旱灾脆弱性测度指标设计中,本文突破单纯考虑传统的地理、水文等自然因素影响的局限性,从社会经济的视角出发,全面选择了旱灾脆弱性的测度指标,构建了农业旱灾脆弱性核心测度指数。在测度指数合成方法上,本文分别选择了基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价和因子分析法,而不是简单算术加权法,能够更客观的反映农业旱灾脆弱性状况的变化。其二,在介绍国外最新研究动态与借鉴国外具体实施经验的基础上,论文基于金融产品创新的视角分析了应对农业旱灾的风险管理路径。主要包括天气指数保险与天气衍生品两个方面。并针对孝感地区的旱灾状况,系统论述了天气指数保险契约的设计以及用天气衍生工具套期保值干旱灾害风险的几种方式。试图在此方面作出一点尝试,这对建立我国天气衍生产品交易市场具有基础性的意义,为人们规避与转移天气风险提供一定的理论依据与政策支撑。其三,由于农业保险市场信息不对称及高的经营成本,我国商业保险不愿意介入农险,而政策性农业保险也存在一定的困境。对此,论文以湖北省孝感市为研究区域,以大量调研所获第一手资料为基础,运用条件价值评估法(CVM)获得农户对干旱指数保险的支付意愿(WTP),在此基础上设计适合区域的干旱指数保险契约,从而弥补当前国内干旱指数保险的不足。
Along with the pace of industrialization and urbanization throughout the world, global climate faces with serious challenges. Especially in recent years, with global warming speeding up, the fierce changes of weather caused more frequent agriculture natural disasters, and the frequency and destructive degree of drought was becoming worse and worse. China is a land of obvious drought. Especially the drought lasting longer, being broad in scope and more serious has a great impact on agricultural production. The drought of Huanghuaihai plain in spring 2009 and southwest super-large serious drought from 2009 autumn-winter to 2010 spring formed grave threat to agricultural production and food security in our country. Higher frequency of drought occurrence and severe losses caused numerous scholars to pay more and more attention to the research issues on drought vulnerability. Drought disasters are the result of the interaction between drought risk and socio-economic vulnerability. Disaster mitigation lies on two aspects:one is reducing the risk of disaster-causing factors; another is reducing socio-economic vulnerability. Therefore, it has become an urgent issue to measure agricultural drought vulnerability degree, to analyze the causes of agricultural drought vulnerability, to find out the ways of reducing vulnerability to agricultural drought and to explore the means of preventing and defusing drought risk.
The dissertation selected drought hazard vulnerability as the research direction, first described the generation and evolution pattern of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. Then taking Xiaogan city as research region, the dissertation designed a core index of vulnerability evaluation from the perspective of social economy, used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to assess agricultural drought hazard vulnerability, and thoroughly analyzed the social economic factors influencing drought hazard vulnerability through principal component analysis (PCA) method. Based on the field survey, the dissertation analyzed the farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) on drought index insurance in Xiaogan city. Finally, based on the theoretical analysis and quantitative evaluation of Xiaogan agricultural drought hazard vulnerability, the dissertation explored drought risk management countermeasures from three different perspectives:the farmers'perspective, financial product innovation perspective and the government perspective. It has an important meaning for agricultural drought control and resistance, and can also provide theoretical basis for government formulating and implementing corresponding mitigation measures. The dissertation will exploit two potential policy plans:one is the change from passive crisis management methods to active risk management methods. This transformation is implemented through establishing drought disaster safety net, and it can effectively prevent drought formation or reduce the destruction effect. The other is the experimental implementation of drought index insurance and weather derivatives based on risk transferring and risk protection mechanism.
This thesis comprises 8 chapters.
The first chapter is the preface. It simply summarized the research background, basic concepts, domestic and international literature review, research purpose and significance, research ideas and methods and the basic framework structure of dissertation.
Chapter 2 described the formation and evolution pattern of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. This chapter first analyzed the composition of agricultural drought system from macroscopic, including hazard-formative factors subsystem, the hazard-formative environments subsystem, hazard-affected body's subsystem and human society economy subsystem four parts. Based on it, this chapter focused on expounding agricultural drought hazard vulnerability special formation mechanism from microcosmic, medium and macroscopic perspective three perspectives. Finally the chapter analyzed the evolution mechanism from the agricultural drought hazard vulnerability to drought disaster:one is the inner mechanism; the other is the external impact mechanism.
Chapter 3 is agricultural drought hazard vulnerability assessment. Taking 7 counties of Xiaogan city in Hubei Province as the case study area, the chapter constructed agricultural drought hazard vulnerability evaluation index system and evaluation model, and then used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. The research result indicated that agricultural drought hazard vulnerability in Xiaogan city was significantly different, in which Dawu county had the highest vulnerability level in 7 counties. This meant that drought disaster risk in Dawu was the strongest, and it was the key area of drought risk management.
Chapter 4 analyzed the dynamic changes causes of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. According to the time and space changes of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability in the study area, it carried through empirical research using PCA methods, analyzed the correlation between impact factors and agricultural drought hazard vulnerability and the size of affecting degree.
Chapter 5 designed the questionnaire based on farmers'perspective. According to the survey data of 273 households in Xiaogan city in Hubei province, the chapter empirically analyzed the influencing factors of the farmers'WTP for drought index insurance through the Logistic model. The research result showed that the surveyed households'WTP to agricultural drought insurance was not strong, in which 72.5 percent of farmers have no WTP, the premium which was paid willingly by the farmers with WTP was quite low, on average only RMB 12 Yuan per mu. Among the influence factors listed, five factors had significant effect on farmers'WTP, such as respondents'education level, arable land, the cognitive degree to the agricultural drought insurance, the trust degree to insurance company and the attitude of government subsidies to agricultural insurance.The policy recommendations:increasing investment on the rural human capital; increasing farmers' income, improving the ability to pay; strengthening propaganda education work to agricultural drought index insurance; exploring rational agricultural insurance subsidy way and standards; strengthening the research strength on weather index insurance, actively promoting the weather index insurance experimental work.
Chapter 6 explored drought risk management from the perspective of financial product innovation. First introduced the implementation and experience of foreign agricultural weather index insurance and weather derivatives; second explained the necessity and feasibility of designing weather index insurance and weather derivatives in China; final designed drought index insurance and hedged against drought risk through weather derivatives.
Chapter 7 bringed forward the policy suggestions to defense agricultural drought hazard from several aspects based on the perspective of government, including:building agricultural drought hazard monitoring and early warning systems; constructing drought disaster safety net based on the stakeholder; strengthening the construction of farmland irrigation infrastructure; promoting drought insurance systems; speeding up the adjustment of agricultural structure and developing dry farming.
Chapter 8 is a summary and outlook. It summarized and induced the content of the preceding chapters, advanced research conclusion and inadequacies. The prospect of the further research was also presented.
In a word, drought effect depends largely on social vulnerability degree while drought occurs. Drought disaster is the result of interaction between drought risk and social vulnerability. There are many factors affecting agricultural drought vulnerability, such as per capita GDP, per capita cultivated land, farmland irrigation rate, cultivated land evaluation, proportion of farmers'wage income to total income, total fiscal revenue, total fiscal expenditure, total investment in fixed assets, proportion of education expenditure to total financial expenditure; they are all important indexes. Proper risk management mode can effectively help farmers dealing with the weather disaster, reducing vulnerability degree and lessening the disaster loss. For example, the weather index insurance and weather derivatives can provide strong support, and buffer the risk loss that people may meet. Meanwhile, using the risk product also can potentially elevate the risk awareness of policymakers and ordinary people, urge people to take active measures against risks rather than passive waiting risk occuring. Under the background of the lack of effective agricultural insurance market in China, the government's participation plays a very important role in drought disaster relief work, such as government subsidies. Of course, government intervention may produce some negative effects, such as rent-seeking, moral hazard and extrusion effect etc. Thus it is crucial to enhance the information transparency, lower the cost and improve the technical level of drought risk management measures.
The possible new ideas of this dissertation are as follows:firstly, the dissertation elaborated the agricultural drought risk management path taking the drought hazard vulnerability as the entry point. During designing agricultural drought hazard vulnerability measure index, this dissertation breaked through the limitations of only considering traditional geographic and hydrological natural factors, and fully choosed drought hazard vulnerability indicator to construct the core measure index of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability from the perspective of social economy. On the synthetic methods of measuring index, this dissertation respectively selected fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP and PCA method, rather than simple arithmetic weighting method, which could objectively reflect the changes of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability status. Secondly, based on introducing the foreign latest research status and learning from foreign concrete implementation experience, the dissertation analyzed agricultural drought hazard risk management path based on financial product innovation perspective. It mainly included the weather index insurance and weather derivatives two aspects. And in the light of Xiaogan drought status, this dissertation systematically discussed the weather index insurance contract designing and several ways of using weather derivatives hedging drought disaster risk. Trying to make some experiments in this respect has the foundational significance for establishing weather derivatives trading market in China and providing certain theoretical basis and policy support for people to avoid and transfer weather risk. Thirdly, due to information asymmetry and high operating costs in agricultural insurance market, the commercial insurance in China did not want to be in agricultural insurance, and the policy-oriented agricultural insurance also had certain difficulties. This dissertation taked Xiaogan city in Hubei province as the study area, taked the first-hand material obtained by plenty of investigation as the foundation, and applied condition value evaluation method (CVM) to obtain farmers'WTP on drought index insurance. Based on it, the dissertation designed drought index insurance contract for regional, which compensated the insufficient of current domestic drought index insurance.
本文选取了旱灾脆弱性作为研究方向,首先对农业旱灾脆弱性生成与演变规律进行阐述。然后以孝感市为研究领域,从社会经济的视角设计一个核心的旱灾脆弱性评价指数,基于层次分析法对农业旱灾脆弱性进行模糊综合评价,并运用主成分分析法深入分析影响旱灾脆弱性的社会经济因素。在此基础上实地调查孝感市农户对干旱指数保险的支付意愿。最后,在理论分析和定量评价孝感市农业旱灾脆弱性的基础上,从农户视角、金融产品创新视角及政府视角探索旱灾风险管理的对策措施。这对于农业系统防旱抗旱治旱具有重要意义,也可以为政府相应的减灾政策措施的制定和实施提供理论依据。本研究拟开发两个潜在的政策计划：一是从被动应对的危机管理方法到主动的风险管理方法的转变,这种转变通过建立干旱灾害安全网来实现,能有效防范或减轻旱灾的形成与破坏影响。二是基于风险转移和风险保护机制的干旱指数保险和天气衍生品的实验实施。
全文共分8章。
第1章导论。主要从选题背景,基本概念的界定,国内外文献评述,研究目的与意义,研究思路与方法及文章的基本框架结构等方面进行了简单的概括和总结。
第2章对农业旱灾脆弱性生成与演变规律进行阐述。本章先从宏观上对农业旱灾系统的构成进行了分析,农业旱灾系统包括致灾因子子系统、孕灾环境子系统、承灾体子系统与人类社会经济子系统4个部分。在此基础上,本章重点从微观、中观与宏观3个视角阐述了农业旱灾脆弱性的特殊生成机制。最后对农业旱灾脆弱性到干旱灾害的演化机制进行了分析：其一是内在生成机制；其二是外在冲击机制。
第3章是农业旱灾脆弱性评价。以孝感市7个县市为研究领域,构建孝感农业旱灾脆弱性评价指标体系和评价模型,对孝感市农业旱灾脆弱性进行评价。研究结果表明,孝感市农业旱灾脆弱性存在明显的差异性,7个县市中大悟的旱灾脆弱性程度最高,这表示大悟县干旱灾害风险性最强,是旱灾风险管理的重点区域。
第4章分析农业旱灾脆弱性动态变化成因。针对研究区农业旱灾脆弱性的时间变化,运用主成分分析方法进行实证研究,分析各影响因素与旱灾脆弱性的相关关系与影响程度的大小。
第5章立足农户视角,设计调查问卷,以湖北省孝感市273个农户的调查数据为依据,通过Logistic回归模型对农户的干旱保险的支付意愿及其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明：被调查农户农业干旱保险意愿不强,其中72.5%的农户没有支付意愿,有支付意愿的农户愿意支付的保险费也相当低,平均只有每亩12元。在所列举的影响因素中,受教育程度、耕地面积、对农业干旱保险的认知程度、对保险公司的信任程度及对政府农业保险补贴的态度等5个因素对农户支付意愿具有显著的影响。政策建议：加大对农村的人力资本投资；增加农民收入,提高支付能力；加强农业干旱指数保险的宣传教育工作；探讨合理的农业保险补贴方式和标准；加强天气指数保险研究力度,积极推进天气指数保险试点工作。
第6章从金融产品创新视角来探索旱灾风险管理。在介绍国外农业天气指数保险与天气衍生品的实施情况与经验的基础上,阐述了我国设计天气指数保险与天气衍生品的必要性与可行性,最后设计了干旱指数保险及运用天气衍生工具套期保值干旱灾害风险。
第7章从几个方面阐述了政府防御农业旱灾的政策建议。主要包括：建设农业旱灾监测预警体系；构建基于利益相关者的干旱灾害安全网；加强农田水利基础设施的建设；推进旱灾保险制度；加快农业产业结构调整,发展旱作农业。
第8章是总结与展望。论文对前面章节的内容进行了总结和归纳,提出了研究结论和不足之处,并对下一步研究提出了展望。
论文基本结论认为,旱灾影响在很大程度上取决于旱灾发生时社会的脆弱性,干旱灾害是旱灾风险和社会脆弱性相互作用的结果。人均GDP、人均耕地面积、耕地灌溉率、农民工资性收入占比、财政总收入、财政总支出、全社会固定资产投资、教育支出占财政支出比例等因素都是影响农业旱灾脆弱性的重要指标。合适的风险管理方式能有效帮助农民应对天气灾难,减轻脆弱性程度,从而减轻灾难损失。如天气指数保险和天气衍生品都能提供强有力的支持,缓冲人们可能遇到的风险损失。同时,这些风险产品的使用也能潜在提升政策决策者及普通民众的风险意识,促使人们主动采取措施应对风险而不是消极等待风险的发生。在我国缺乏有效的农业保险市场的背景下,政府的参与在防旱抗灾工作中起着非常重要的作用,如政府补贴等。当然,政府的干预也会产生一些消极影响,如寻租、道德风险及挤出效应等问题,因此,提高信息的透明度、降低行政成本及提高旱灾风险管理的技术水平等举措至关重要。
论文可能的创新点在于：其一,论文以旱灾脆弱性作为切入点系统阐述农业旱灾风险管理的路径。在农业旱灾脆弱性测度指标设计中,本文突破单纯考虑传统的地理、水文等自然因素影响的局限性,从社会经济的视角出发,全面选择了旱灾脆弱性的测度指标,构建了农业旱灾脆弱性核心测度指数。在测度指数合成方法上,本文分别选择了基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价和因子分析法,而不是简单算术加权法,能够更客观的反映农业旱灾脆弱性状况的变化。其二,在介绍国外最新研究动态与借鉴国外具体实施经验的基础上,论文基于金融产品创新的视角分析了应对农业旱灾的风险管理路径。主要包括天气指数保险与天气衍生品两个方面。并针对孝感地区的旱灾状况,系统论述了天气指数保险契约的设计以及用天气衍生工具套期保值干旱灾害风险的几种方式。试图在此方面作出一点尝试,这对建立我国天气衍生产品交易市场具有基础性的意义,为人们规避与转移天气风险提供一定的理论依据与政策支撑。其三,由于农业保险市场信息不对称及高的经营成本,我国商业保险不愿意介入农险,而政策性农业保险也存在一定的困境。对此,论文以湖北省孝感市为研究区域,以大量调研所获第一手资料为基础,运用条件价值评估法(CVM)获得农户对干旱指数保险的支付意愿(WTP),在此基础上设计适合区域的干旱指数保险契约,从而弥补当前国内干旱指数保险的不足。
Along with the pace of industrialization and urbanization throughout the world, global climate faces with serious challenges. Especially in recent years, with global warming speeding up, the fierce changes of weather caused more frequent agriculture natural disasters, and the frequency and destructive degree of drought was becoming worse and worse. China is a land of obvious drought. Especially the drought lasting longer, being broad in scope and more serious has a great impact on agricultural production. The drought of Huanghuaihai plain in spring 2009 and southwest super-large serious drought from 2009 autumn-winter to 2010 spring formed grave threat to agricultural production and food security in our country. Higher frequency of drought occurrence and severe losses caused numerous scholars to pay more and more attention to the research issues on drought vulnerability. Drought disasters are the result of the interaction between drought risk and socio-economic vulnerability. Disaster mitigation lies on two aspects:one is reducing the risk of disaster-causing factors; another is reducing socio-economic vulnerability. Therefore, it has become an urgent issue to measure agricultural drought vulnerability degree, to analyze the causes of agricultural drought vulnerability, to find out the ways of reducing vulnerability to agricultural drought and to explore the means of preventing and defusing drought risk.
The dissertation selected drought hazard vulnerability as the research direction, first described the generation and evolution pattern of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. Then taking Xiaogan city as research region, the dissertation designed a core index of vulnerability evaluation from the perspective of social economy, used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to assess agricultural drought hazard vulnerability, and thoroughly analyzed the social economic factors influencing drought hazard vulnerability through principal component analysis (PCA) method. Based on the field survey, the dissertation analyzed the farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) on drought index insurance in Xiaogan city. Finally, based on the theoretical analysis and quantitative evaluation of Xiaogan agricultural drought hazard vulnerability, the dissertation explored drought risk management countermeasures from three different perspectives:the farmers'perspective, financial product innovation perspective and the government perspective. It has an important meaning for agricultural drought control and resistance, and can also provide theoretical basis for government formulating and implementing corresponding mitigation measures. The dissertation will exploit two potential policy plans:one is the change from passive crisis management methods to active risk management methods. This transformation is implemented through establishing drought disaster safety net, and it can effectively prevent drought formation or reduce the destruction effect. The other is the experimental implementation of drought index insurance and weather derivatives based on risk transferring and risk protection mechanism.
This thesis comprises 8 chapters.
The first chapter is the preface. It simply summarized the research background, basic concepts, domestic and international literature review, research purpose and significance, research ideas and methods and the basic framework structure of dissertation.
Chapter 2 described the formation and evolution pattern of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. This chapter first analyzed the composition of agricultural drought system from macroscopic, including hazard-formative factors subsystem, the hazard-formative environments subsystem, hazard-affected body's subsystem and human society economy subsystem four parts. Based on it, this chapter focused on expounding agricultural drought hazard vulnerability special formation mechanism from microcosmic, medium and macroscopic perspective three perspectives. Finally the chapter analyzed the evolution mechanism from the agricultural drought hazard vulnerability to drought disaster:one is the inner mechanism; the other is the external impact mechanism.
Chapter 3 is agricultural drought hazard vulnerability assessment. Taking 7 counties of Xiaogan city in Hubei Province as the case study area, the chapter constructed agricultural drought hazard vulnerability evaluation index system and evaluation model, and then used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. The research result indicated that agricultural drought hazard vulnerability in Xiaogan city was significantly different, in which Dawu county had the highest vulnerability level in 7 counties. This meant that drought disaster risk in Dawu was the strongest, and it was the key area of drought risk management.
Chapter 4 analyzed the dynamic changes causes of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability. According to the time and space changes of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability in the study area, it carried through empirical research using PCA methods, analyzed the correlation between impact factors and agricultural drought hazard vulnerability and the size of affecting degree.
Chapter 5 designed the questionnaire based on farmers'perspective. According to the survey data of 273 households in Xiaogan city in Hubei province, the chapter empirically analyzed the influencing factors of the farmers'WTP for drought index insurance through the Logistic model. The research result showed that the surveyed households'WTP to agricultural drought insurance was not strong, in which 72.5 percent of farmers have no WTP, the premium which was paid willingly by the farmers with WTP was quite low, on average only RMB 12 Yuan per mu. Among the influence factors listed, five factors had significant effect on farmers'WTP, such as respondents'education level, arable land, the cognitive degree to the agricultural drought insurance, the trust degree to insurance company and the attitude of government subsidies to agricultural insurance.The policy recommendations:increasing investment on the rural human capital; increasing farmers' income, improving the ability to pay; strengthening propaganda education work to agricultural drought index insurance; exploring rational agricultural insurance subsidy way and standards; strengthening the research strength on weather index insurance, actively promoting the weather index insurance experimental work.
Chapter 6 explored drought risk management from the perspective of financial product innovation. First introduced the implementation and experience of foreign agricultural weather index insurance and weather derivatives; second explained the necessity and feasibility of designing weather index insurance and weather derivatives in China; final designed drought index insurance and hedged against drought risk through weather derivatives.
Chapter 7 bringed forward the policy suggestions to defense agricultural drought hazard from several aspects based on the perspective of government, including:building agricultural drought hazard monitoring and early warning systems; constructing drought disaster safety net based on the stakeholder; strengthening the construction of farmland irrigation infrastructure; promoting drought insurance systems; speeding up the adjustment of agricultural structure and developing dry farming.
Chapter 8 is a summary and outlook. It summarized and induced the content of the preceding chapters, advanced research conclusion and inadequacies. The prospect of the further research was also presented.
In a word, drought effect depends largely on social vulnerability degree while drought occurs. Drought disaster is the result of interaction between drought risk and social vulnerability. There are many factors affecting agricultural drought vulnerability, such as per capita GDP, per capita cultivated land, farmland irrigation rate, cultivated land evaluation, proportion of farmers'wage income to total income, total fiscal revenue, total fiscal expenditure, total investment in fixed assets, proportion of education expenditure to total financial expenditure; they are all important indexes. Proper risk management mode can effectively help farmers dealing with the weather disaster, reducing vulnerability degree and lessening the disaster loss. For example, the weather index insurance and weather derivatives can provide strong support, and buffer the risk loss that people may meet. Meanwhile, using the risk product also can potentially elevate the risk awareness of policymakers and ordinary people, urge people to take active measures against risks rather than passive waiting risk occuring. Under the background of the lack of effective agricultural insurance market in China, the government's participation plays a very important role in drought disaster relief work, such as government subsidies. Of course, government intervention may produce some negative effects, such as rent-seeking, moral hazard and extrusion effect etc. Thus it is crucial to enhance the information transparency, lower the cost and improve the technical level of drought risk management measures.
The possible new ideas of this dissertation are as follows:firstly, the dissertation elaborated the agricultural drought risk management path taking the drought hazard vulnerability as the entry point. During designing agricultural drought hazard vulnerability measure index, this dissertation breaked through the limitations of only considering traditional geographic and hydrological natural factors, and fully choosed drought hazard vulnerability indicator to construct the core measure index of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability from the perspective of social economy. On the synthetic methods of measuring index, this dissertation respectively selected fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP and PCA method, rather than simple arithmetic weighting method, which could objectively reflect the changes of agricultural drought hazard vulnerability status. Secondly, based on introducing the foreign latest research status and learning from foreign concrete implementation experience, the dissertation analyzed agricultural drought hazard risk management path based on financial product innovation perspective. It mainly included the weather index insurance and weather derivatives two aspects. And in the light of Xiaogan drought status, this dissertation systematically discussed the weather index insurance contract designing and several ways of using weather derivatives hedging drought disaster risk. Trying to make some experiments in this respect has the foundational significance for establishing weather derivatives trading market in China and providing certain theoretical basis and policy support for people to avoid and transfer weather risk. Thirdly, due to information asymmetry and high operating costs in agricultural insurance market, the commercial insurance in China did not want to be in agricultural insurance, and the policy-oriented agricultural insurance also had certain difficulties. This dissertation taked Xiaogan city in Hubei province as the study area, taked the first-hand material obtained by plenty of investigation as the foundation, and applied condition value evaluation method (CVM) to obtain farmers'WTP on drought index insurance. Based on it, the dissertation designed drought index insurance contract for regional, which compensated the insufficient of current domestic drought index insurance.
引文
①详见：丁家玲,叶金华.层次分析法和模糊综合评判在教师课堂教学质量评价中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(社会科学版),2003,56(2)：241-245
①李春平,杨益民,葛莹玉.主成分分析法和层次分析法在对综合指标进行定量评价中的比较[J],南京财经大学学报,2005(6)：54-57
①Changnon, S. A.(2007), "New Risk Assessment Products for Dealing with Financial Exposure to Weather Hazards", Nat Hazards, Vol.43, pp.295-301.
②详见：以天气衍生产品规避农业自然风险[N].期货日报/2006年/6月/9日／第004版
①详见：Wilhite, D. A., Hayes, M.J., Knutson, C. and Smith, K.H. (2000), "Planmng for Drought:Moving from Crisis to Risk Management", Journal of the American water Resources Association, Vol.36, No.4, pp.697-710.
①详见：Khan, M.R. and Rahman,M.A. (2007), "Partnership Approach to Disaster Management in Bangladesh:A Critical Policy Assessment'". Nat Hazards,No.41:359-378
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