企业跨国并购风险动态监测研究
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摘要
随着全球经济一体化的发展,各国企业之间的合作日益深入,第五次并购浪潮的到来更是将跨国公司推向主导地位。与此同时,金融危机的爆发使发达国家债台高垒,部分国外企业资产缩水,为规模和实力不断发展壮大的中国企业进入国际市场提供了机遇。然而全球经济不景气、国际汇率波动、东道国的政治壁垒、文化障碍、劳资冲突、财务风险等多项不利因素的影响使我国企业跨国并购屡屡受挫。针对企业跨国并购及其风险管理,近年来,国内外学者在跨国并购的动因、战略、区位选择、方式以及跨国并购对母国和东道国的影响等方面开展了大量研究,对于跨国并购风险预警模型也进行了研究并提出风险管理对策。然而其局限在于：第一,对跨国并购的研究偏重于并购业务本身,对跨国并购风险的研究偏重于风险管理,未将二者结合起来进行系统研究；第
指标的评价除了部分定量指标外主观性较强,且缺乏合理的评价标准；第三,对企业跨国并购风险监测的研究有待进一步深入。基于此,本文将跨国并购业务流程、风险评价与风险监测有机结合并开系统研究,在探索风险机理、建立风险指标体系的基础上,构建企业跨国并购风险动态监测模型,探索企业跨国并购风险管理的新思路,为政府和企业跨国并购制订战略和做出决策提供参考。
基于以上研究目的,本文试图解决三大难题：第一,企业跨国并购风险的演化问题。风险的起源、运动轨迹和发展方向是什么,风险在不同阶段的表现是什么,能否找到它们之间的逻辑关联?第二,企业跨国并购风险预警指标体系的构建。针对纷繁复杂的影响因素,如何找出关键指标,如何解决评价标准不一致的问题?第三,企业跨国并购风险的决策问题。如何在风险演化分析和预警监测的基础上帮助企业做出跨国并购的风险决策,如何从以往的案例中寻找企业跨国并购风险的决策规则?围绕着这三大难题,本文将问题导向、方法导向和案例导向三种研究思路进行结合,基于中国企业跨国并购的现状和问题分析探索企业跨国并购的风险演化机理,采用风险预警理论、综合评价理论、粗糙集理论、决策树理论、企业战略环境分析理论、能量释放理论、马尔科夫链理论等多种理论,对企业跨国并购风险演化机理、风险动态监测模型、风险预警监测指标体系构建等问题进行了深入研究,并从企业跨国并购案例分析出发,将风险动态监测的实证研究建立在经验数据挖掘的基础上,为企业跨国并购风险管理研究提供了新的思路。
通过上述研究,本文主要取得了如下研究成果：
(1)建立了企业跨国并购风险三维战略分析框架。将跨国并购风险环境、跨国并购业务流程和跨国并购风险要素结合起来,从空间、时间和内容层面对企业跨国并购风险进行了系统分析。
(2)探索了企业跨国并购风险演化机理。从内外两个方面对企业跨国并购风险演化的动因进行了探索,在此基础上解析了风险源、风险流、风险事件、风险载体、风险演化链等企业跨国并购风险演化的关键要素,进而基于环境分析和运作流程两个角度对企业跨国并购风险演化链进行了分析。
(3)建立了企业跨国并购风险动态监测模型。构建了包括风险演化监测模型、风险动态评价模型、风险动态决策模型的企业跨国并购风险动态监测模型。其中风险演化监测模型基于马尔科夫链理论,对风险演化的概率进行监测并找出关键风险源；风险预警监测模型综合风险预警理论、综合评价理论和信息熵理论,对风险的程度进行评价和预警监测；风险动态决策模型基于粗糙集理论、遗传算法和决策树理论,在风险预警监测结果的基础上探索风险动态决策规则,以帮助企业做出跨国并购风险决策。
(4)构建了企业跨国并购风险动态监测指标体系。从外部风险和内部风险两个层面,建立了包括政治法律风险、经济风险、社会文化风险、市场行业风险、战略决策风险、财务风险、交易风险、整合风险在内的企业跨国并购风险动态监测指标体系,并在建立风险动态监测指标库的基础上对风险指标的辨识模式进行了设计。
With the development of economic globalization, transnational cooperation between enterprises is increasingly deepening. Multinationals play an important role in the fifth wave of mergers and acquisitions. What's more, the breakout of financial crisis makes some developed countries run heavily into debt. Assets shrink becomes inevitable to a lot of foreign enterprises, which provides Chinese multinationals with a great opportunity to enter into international markets. However, depression of global economy, fluctuation of international exchange rate, political barriers of host counties, cultural barrier, labor conflicts,financial risks as well as some other unfavorable factors contributes to the failure of overseas mergers and acquisitions conducted by Chinese enterprises. In recent years, a lot of research is conducted concerning the motivation, strategy, the choice of location, as well as the impact on host and home countries of overseas mergers and acquisitions. Further more, several risk early warning models are created, and the approach of risk management is discussed, however, some deficiencies are as follows:firstly, the research on transnational mergers and acquisitions focus on the business itself, and the research on transnational mergers risk focus mainly on risk management, lacking of the combination of the two. Secondly, apart from some quantitative indicators, the evaluation indicators are subjective, lacking of reasonable evaluation standard. Thirdly, further research should be conducted on dynamic monitoring of transnational M&A risk. For all these reasons above, this dissertation conducts systematic research by combing the process of overseas mergers and acquisitions, risk evaluation theory and risk intelligent monitoring. On the basis of exploring risk mechanism and conducting indicator system, this dissertation builds up risk intelligent monitoring model of overseas mergers and acquisitions, and comes up with new approaches of risk management, which provides the authorities and enterprises with a reference when making decisions.
For the above purpose, this dissertation attempts to solve three major problems as follows:Firstly, the risk evolution of the enterprise transnational merger and acquisition. The dissertation tries to figure out the source, the trajectory, as well as the development direction of cross-border M&A risk. How risks perform in different stage of transnational merger and acquisition? What is the logical relationship between all kinds of risk? Secondly, the construction of enterprise transnational merger and acquisition risk monitoring indicator system. Since the factors are very complex, how to identify the key indicators? How to solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation indicators? Thirdly, the decision-making process of overseas mergers and acquisitions risks. How to make a combination of M&A theory and practice? How to make a combination of M&A evaluation and cases? To solve the three problems, this dissertation combines three kinds of approaches:the problem-oriented approach, the method-oriented approach and case-oriented approach. Based on the driving factors and the characteristics of Chinese enterprises, this dissertation analyses the evolution mechanism of transnational merger and acquisition risk. Based on the risk early warning theory, risk evaluation theory, rough set theory, decision tree theory, Strategic environment analysis theory, the energy release theory as well as the Kopf chain theory, this dissertation focuses on risk evolution mechanism, dynamic risk monitoring model as well as the construction of enterprise transnational merger and acquisition risk monitoring indicator system. Started from a case study of enterprise cross-border M&A, this dissertation conducts a empirical research, which provides a new approach on the study of cross-border M&A risk management.
Through the above study, the main achievements of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Setting up3D analysis framework of enterprise transnational risk. This dissertation will combine transnational mergers and acquisitions' risk environment, transnational mergers and acquisitions' business processes and transnational risk elements together, from the space, time and content level to analyze transnational risk of enterprises systematically.
(2) Exploration of transnational merger and acquisition of the enterprise risk evaluation mechanism. From internal and external aspects, this dissertation explores the motivation of transnational risk evolution. On the basis of this, this dissertation analyses key elements of transnational risk evolution from risk sources, risk flows, risk events, risk carrier, risk evolution chain. Then it analyzes transnational risk evolution chain based on environmental analysis and operational processes.
(3) Setting up a transnational M&A risk dynamic decision system for enterprises.
This dissertation constructs dynamic monitoring model of transnational mergers and acquisitions risk, including risk evolution monitoring model, risk dynamic assessment model and risk dynamic decision model. Among all these models, risk evolution monitoring model monitors the probability of risk evolution and finds out the key sources of risk based on the theory of Markov chain. Risk early warning and monitoring model integrates risk warning theory, comprehensive evaluation theory and information entropy theory to evaluate, early warn and monitor the degree of risk. On the basis of rough set theory, genetic algorithms and decision tree theory, risk dynamic decision model explores the risk dynamic decision rules based on the risk early warning and monitoring results to help companies make transnational risk decisions.
(4) Building the enterprise transnational risk indicator system. From the external risk and internal risk dimensions, this dissertation constructs transnational risk dynamic monitoring indicators system of enterprises including political and legal risk, economic risk, social risk, industry risk, market risk, financial risk, strategic decision-making of transaction risk, integration risk. Based on the establishment of dynamic risk monitoring indicators library, it designs the identification pattern of risk indicators.
指标的评价除了部分定量指标外主观性较强,且缺乏合理的评价标准；第三,对企业跨国并购风险监测的研究有待进一步深入。基于此,本文将跨国并购业务流程、风险评价与风险监测有机结合并开系统研究,在探索风险机理、建立风险指标体系的基础上,构建企业跨国并购风险动态监测模型,探索企业跨国并购风险管理的新思路,为政府和企业跨国并购制订战略和做出决策提供参考。
基于以上研究目的,本文试图解决三大难题：第一,企业跨国并购风险的演化问题。风险的起源、运动轨迹和发展方向是什么,风险在不同阶段的表现是什么,能否找到它们之间的逻辑关联?第二,企业跨国并购风险预警指标体系的构建。针对纷繁复杂的影响因素,如何找出关键指标,如何解决评价标准不一致的问题?第三,企业跨国并购风险的决策问题。如何在风险演化分析和预警监测的基础上帮助企业做出跨国并购的风险决策,如何从以往的案例中寻找企业跨国并购风险的决策规则?围绕着这三大难题,本文将问题导向、方法导向和案例导向三种研究思路进行结合,基于中国企业跨国并购的现状和问题分析探索企业跨国并购的风险演化机理,采用风险预警理论、综合评价理论、粗糙集理论、决策树理论、企业战略环境分析理论、能量释放理论、马尔科夫链理论等多种理论,对企业跨国并购风险演化机理、风险动态监测模型、风险预警监测指标体系构建等问题进行了深入研究,并从企业跨国并购案例分析出发,将风险动态监测的实证研究建立在经验数据挖掘的基础上,为企业跨国并购风险管理研究提供了新的思路。
通过上述研究,本文主要取得了如下研究成果：
(1)建立了企业跨国并购风险三维战略分析框架。将跨国并购风险环境、跨国并购业务流程和跨国并购风险要素结合起来,从空间、时间和内容层面对企业跨国并购风险进行了系统分析。
(2)探索了企业跨国并购风险演化机理。从内外两个方面对企业跨国并购风险演化的动因进行了探索,在此基础上解析了风险源、风险流、风险事件、风险载体、风险演化链等企业跨国并购风险演化的关键要素,进而基于环境分析和运作流程两个角度对企业跨国并购风险演化链进行了分析。
(3)建立了企业跨国并购风险动态监测模型。构建了包括风险演化监测模型、风险动态评价模型、风险动态决策模型的企业跨国并购风险动态监测模型。其中风险演化监测模型基于马尔科夫链理论,对风险演化的概率进行监测并找出关键风险源；风险预警监测模型综合风险预警理论、综合评价理论和信息熵理论,对风险的程度进行评价和预警监测；风险动态决策模型基于粗糙集理论、遗传算法和决策树理论,在风险预警监测结果的基础上探索风险动态决策规则,以帮助企业做出跨国并购风险决策。
(4)构建了企业跨国并购风险动态监测指标体系。从外部风险和内部风险两个层面,建立了包括政治法律风险、经济风险、社会文化风险、市场行业风险、战略决策风险、财务风险、交易风险、整合风险在内的企业跨国并购风险动态监测指标体系,并在建立风险动态监测指标库的基础上对风险指标的辨识模式进行了设计。
With the development of economic globalization, transnational cooperation between enterprises is increasingly deepening. Multinationals play an important role in the fifth wave of mergers and acquisitions. What's more, the breakout of financial crisis makes some developed countries run heavily into debt. Assets shrink becomes inevitable to a lot of foreign enterprises, which provides Chinese multinationals with a great opportunity to enter into international markets. However, depression of global economy, fluctuation of international exchange rate, political barriers of host counties, cultural barrier, labor conflicts,financial risks as well as some other unfavorable factors contributes to the failure of overseas mergers and acquisitions conducted by Chinese enterprises. In recent years, a lot of research is conducted concerning the motivation, strategy, the choice of location, as well as the impact on host and home countries of overseas mergers and acquisitions. Further more, several risk early warning models are created, and the approach of risk management is discussed, however, some deficiencies are as follows:firstly, the research on transnational mergers and acquisitions focus on the business itself, and the research on transnational mergers risk focus mainly on risk management, lacking of the combination of the two. Secondly, apart from some quantitative indicators, the evaluation indicators are subjective, lacking of reasonable evaluation standard. Thirdly, further research should be conducted on dynamic monitoring of transnational M&A risk. For all these reasons above, this dissertation conducts systematic research by combing the process of overseas mergers and acquisitions, risk evaluation theory and risk intelligent monitoring. On the basis of exploring risk mechanism and conducting indicator system, this dissertation builds up risk intelligent monitoring model of overseas mergers and acquisitions, and comes up with new approaches of risk management, which provides the authorities and enterprises with a reference when making decisions.
For the above purpose, this dissertation attempts to solve three major problems as follows:Firstly, the risk evolution of the enterprise transnational merger and acquisition. The dissertation tries to figure out the source, the trajectory, as well as the development direction of cross-border M&A risk. How risks perform in different stage of transnational merger and acquisition? What is the logical relationship between all kinds of risk? Secondly, the construction of enterprise transnational merger and acquisition risk monitoring indicator system. Since the factors are very complex, how to identify the key indicators? How to solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation indicators? Thirdly, the decision-making process of overseas mergers and acquisitions risks. How to make a combination of M&A theory and practice? How to make a combination of M&A evaluation and cases? To solve the three problems, this dissertation combines three kinds of approaches:the problem-oriented approach, the method-oriented approach and case-oriented approach. Based on the driving factors and the characteristics of Chinese enterprises, this dissertation analyses the evolution mechanism of transnational merger and acquisition risk. Based on the risk early warning theory, risk evaluation theory, rough set theory, decision tree theory, Strategic environment analysis theory, the energy release theory as well as the Kopf chain theory, this dissertation focuses on risk evolution mechanism, dynamic risk monitoring model as well as the construction of enterprise transnational merger and acquisition risk monitoring indicator system. Started from a case study of enterprise cross-border M&A, this dissertation conducts a empirical research, which provides a new approach on the study of cross-border M&A risk management.
Through the above study, the main achievements of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Setting up3D analysis framework of enterprise transnational risk. This dissertation will combine transnational mergers and acquisitions' risk environment, transnational mergers and acquisitions' business processes and transnational risk elements together, from the space, time and content level to analyze transnational risk of enterprises systematically.
(2) Exploration of transnational merger and acquisition of the enterprise risk evaluation mechanism. From internal and external aspects, this dissertation explores the motivation of transnational risk evolution. On the basis of this, this dissertation analyses key elements of transnational risk evolution from risk sources, risk flows, risk events, risk carrier, risk evolution chain. Then it analyzes transnational risk evolution chain based on environmental analysis and operational processes.
(3) Setting up a transnational M&A risk dynamic decision system for enterprises.
This dissertation constructs dynamic monitoring model of transnational mergers and acquisitions risk, including risk evolution monitoring model, risk dynamic assessment model and risk dynamic decision model. Among all these models, risk evolution monitoring model monitors the probability of risk evolution and finds out the key sources of risk based on the theory of Markov chain. Risk early warning and monitoring model integrates risk warning theory, comprehensive evaluation theory and information entropy theory to evaluate, early warn and monitor the degree of risk. On the basis of rough set theory, genetic algorithms and decision tree theory, risk dynamic decision model explores the risk dynamic decision rules based on the risk early warning and monitoring results to help companies make transnational risk decisions.
(4) Building the enterprise transnational risk indicator system. From the external risk and internal risk dimensions, this dissertation constructs transnational risk dynamic monitoring indicators system of enterprises including political and legal risk, economic risk, social risk, industry risk, market risk, financial risk, strategic decision-making of transaction risk, integration risk. Based on the establishment of dynamic risk monitoring indicators library, it designs the identification pattern of risk indicators.
引文
① 布莱克法律词典对merger一词的定义为‘'The absorption of one company by another, latter retaining its own name and identity and acquiring assets, liability, franchise, and powers of former, and absorbed company ceasing to exist as separate business entity."It differs from a consolidation wherein all the corporations terminate their existence and become parties to a new one."引自 Henry Campbell Black, M. A., Black's Law Dictionary, fifth edition, West Publishing Co.1979, p.891
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