中国上市公司连续并购的市场反应研究
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摘要
近年来我国并购市场迅速发展,上市公司并购交易日趋活跃。不仅市场内整体并购交易的数量快速递增,单个上市公司并购交易的频率也显著提升。例如,亚泰集团(600881)在1998—2002这短短五年间进行了11起并购交易。可以说,在整体经营发展规划的大方向下,并购已成为中国上市公司的一种常态化资本运作手段,而表现出连贯性与持久性。正因为我国并购市场内上市公司呈现出由单次并购向连续并购转变的趋势性新特征,而过去对单次并购的研究成果无法简单套用于连续并购,使得上市公司的连续并购成为我国资本市场值得研究的新现象。
虽然国外学者已经注意到连续并购的新趋势并加以研究,但其视角主要放在上市公司管理层上。而国内学者则还没有展开对于连续并购的研究。因此,研究上市公司连续并购及其资本市场反应的意义在于：其一,可作为单次并购研究的补充,进一步扩充现有并购研究的相关理论；其二,可更为合理、准确的解释当前资本市场的连续并购现象；其三,可为上市公司并购战略的制定、市场投资者心理与行为研究提供一些考量依据。
本文以上市公司连续并购为切入点,研究基于连续并购所引发的市场反应行为。文章的主要研究工作如下：
第一,内涵研究——针对本课题研究目标,本文首先对连续并购和市场反应的内涵进行分析。一方面,本文分别从理论和实证两个视角对连续并购内涵加以区分。另一方面,文章将连续并购的市场反应与以往研究中将公司经营业绩波动作为市场反应加以区别。
第二,影响因素研究——本文围绕所研究核心问题,分别从投资者行为、交易方式与双方特征、并购方管理者行为、并购行业与产业特点以及政府干预等五方面着手,针对上市公司的连续并购交易,对可能造成市场反应波动的各类因素进行区分和梳理。
第三,构建短期市场反应模型——本文以传统行为金融学的DHS模型为原型,从上市公司连续并购的角度出发,获得了针对上市公司连续并购的修正DHS市场反应模型——Φ—DHS市场反应模型
第四,连续并购短期市场反应实证研究——本文以中国上市公司在2000年至2009年间所进行的并购交易为样本,对Φ—DHS市场反应模型和部分关键因素进行实证检验。
第五,长期市场反应模型的构建——在短期市场反应研究结论的基础上,本文以动态面板数据模型为基础构建针对较长时间区间内的上市公司连续并购行为的市场反应理论模型——SYS GMM—市场反应模型。
第六,连续并购长期市场反应实证研究——本文利用中国上市公的样本数据对SYS GMM一市场反应模型加以检验,并进一步对实证结果做预测分析。
结合所获得的研究结论,本文的创新点在于
第一,本文摆脱了单次并购的束缚,选择以中国并购市场发展的新趋势——连续并购为研究主题,探讨了现实意义下连续并购广义与狭义的内涵。
第二,有别于国外学者普遍以管理层为视角的研究方式,本文从资本市场投资者的新角度对连续并购展开探索,从而进一步扩充了连续并购的相关理论成果和实证结论。
第三,针对连续并购阶次的不断提高,资本市场投资者的心理偏差及其影响因素均发生变化,本文将连续并购的市场反应细分为短期反应与长期反应,并分别构建了有针对性的模型——Φ-DHS市场反应模型与SYS—GMM市场反应模型。
第四,本文对Φ—DHS市场反应模型与SYS—GMM市场反应模型进行实证检验。所获结论对于中国上市公司并购策略的规划与预期,投资者心理与行为的研究都有一定的指导意义,因此本研究课题具有较好的现实价值。
文章综合利用多种分析方法,较为全面的对中国上市公司连续并购的短期、长期市场反应进行实证检验。研究发现：(1)中国上市公司的连续并购行为存在规律性；(2)市场受到多种心理偏差影响,并具备一定学习能力；(3)市场对上市公司连续并购的反应具有长期性特点。
In recent years, the M&A market in China had got great development. The merger and acquisition deals those done by listed companies have been increasingly active. With the fast growth of the number of merge and acquisition deals, the frequency of individual listed enterprises'M&A trades also improved quickly. For example, Yatai Group (600881) did 11 deals from 1998 to 2002. Actually, under the whole development projection for the listed enterprises, M&A has became a normalized capital operating method, which has show consistency and persistency. The M&A market in China has got a new character, which is changing from single deal to serial M&As, while the results got from single M&A maybe not siutbul for serial M&As. Therefore, listed enterprises'serial M&As have became a new phenomenon which deserving some researches.
Although foreign researchers have noticed the phenomenon and done some study, their view focusing the management of listed companies. And Chinese researchers have not started the relative researches. Therefore we think it is necessary to researching market reaction specific to listed enterprises'serial M&As. Firstly, as the supplement of single M&As, we can enlarge the M&As theories. Secondly, we can explain some phenomenon reasonably. Thirdly, we can provide dependable basis for listed enterprises' expanding projects as well as the study of investors'mind and behavior.
This paper takes the perspective of listed enterprises'serial M&As as the cutting point of discussing market reaction. The main work and conclusions of this paper are:
First of all, connotation analysis——this paper analyzes the meanings of serial M&As and market reaction. On the one hand, this paper analyzes serial M&As from theoretical study and empirical study. On the other hand, this paper differ market reaction as the changes of stock price after the first declaration date with the performance of operation.
Secondly, influence factors'research——this paper respectively analyzes possible factors which would impact market reaction to listed enterprises'serial M&As from the behaviors of investors as well as managers, trading pattern, the industry characters, government intervention.
Thirdly, the establishing of short-term market reaction model——based on the DHS model, this paper establishes the revised DHS model (f—DHS market reaction model) for serial acquisitions which are differentiated by the result of the first deal.
Fourthly, the emprical test of short-term market reaction model——this paper emprically tested f—DHS market reaction model and several critical factors with Chinese listed companies data from 2000 to 2009.
Fifthly, the establishing of long-term market reaction model——based on the conclusion of short-term analysis, this paper establishes the long-tern market reaction model (SYS—GMM market reaction model) basing on the dynamic panel data model.
Sixthly, the emprical test of long-term market reaction model——this paper emprically tested forecasted SYS—GMM market reaction model with Chinese listed companies data.
With the relative research conclusion, the innovations of this paper line in:
Firstly, the paper getting rid of the constraint of single deal, chooses the new trend of China's M&A market—serial M&As as the reaserch topic and explor the meaning of it.
Secondly, different from forgrin reaserchers foucsing on management, this paper from a new point of view—investors to do some study. It would enlarge the theory of serial M&As.
Thirdly, according to the increasing of acquisition orders, the changing of investors'mind as well as influence factors, this paper separates the market reaction to short and long. Then we establish the short-term market reaction model (f—DHS market reaction model) and the long-term market reaction model (SYS—GMM market reaction model).
Forthly, this paper empirically tests f—DHS market reaction model and SYS—GMM market reaction model. Since the relative conclusion has some guidance to our listed enterprises' project of serial acquisitions as well as the research of investors' mind and behaviour, this paper has great practical value.
With various research methods, we empirically explored the market reactions to Chinese enterprises'serial M&As. We found that (1) there are some regularities with listed enterprises' serial M&As; (2) market would be influenced by several psychological bias, and have study beavers; (3) market reaction to listed companies'serial M&As has long-term feature.
虽然国外学者已经注意到连续并购的新趋势并加以研究,但其视角主要放在上市公司管理层上。而国内学者则还没有展开对于连续并购的研究。因此,研究上市公司连续并购及其资本市场反应的意义在于：其一,可作为单次并购研究的补充,进一步扩充现有并购研究的相关理论；其二,可更为合理、准确的解释当前资本市场的连续并购现象；其三,可为上市公司并购战略的制定、市场投资者心理与行为研究提供一些考量依据。
本文以上市公司连续并购为切入点,研究基于连续并购所引发的市场反应行为。文章的主要研究工作如下：
第一,内涵研究——针对本课题研究目标,本文首先对连续并购和市场反应的内涵进行分析。一方面,本文分别从理论和实证两个视角对连续并购内涵加以区分。另一方面,文章将连续并购的市场反应与以往研究中将公司经营业绩波动作为市场反应加以区别。
第二,影响因素研究——本文围绕所研究核心问题,分别从投资者行为、交易方式与双方特征、并购方管理者行为、并购行业与产业特点以及政府干预等五方面着手,针对上市公司的连续并购交易,对可能造成市场反应波动的各类因素进行区分和梳理。
第三,构建短期市场反应模型——本文以传统行为金融学的DHS模型为原型,从上市公司连续并购的角度出发,获得了针对上市公司连续并购的修正DHS市场反应模型——Φ—DHS市场反应模型
第四,连续并购短期市场反应实证研究——本文以中国上市公司在2000年至2009年间所进行的并购交易为样本,对Φ—DHS市场反应模型和部分关键因素进行实证检验。
第五,长期市场反应模型的构建——在短期市场反应研究结论的基础上,本文以动态面板数据模型为基础构建针对较长时间区间内的上市公司连续并购行为的市场反应理论模型——SYS GMM—市场反应模型。
第六,连续并购长期市场反应实证研究——本文利用中国上市公的样本数据对SYS GMM一市场反应模型加以检验,并进一步对实证结果做预测分析。
结合所获得的研究结论,本文的创新点在于
第一,本文摆脱了单次并购的束缚,选择以中国并购市场发展的新趋势——连续并购为研究主题,探讨了现实意义下连续并购广义与狭义的内涵。
第二,有别于国外学者普遍以管理层为视角的研究方式,本文从资本市场投资者的新角度对连续并购展开探索,从而进一步扩充了连续并购的相关理论成果和实证结论。
第三,针对连续并购阶次的不断提高,资本市场投资者的心理偏差及其影响因素均发生变化,本文将连续并购的市场反应细分为短期反应与长期反应,并分别构建了有针对性的模型——Φ-DHS市场反应模型与SYS—GMM市场反应模型。
第四,本文对Φ—DHS市场反应模型与SYS—GMM市场反应模型进行实证检验。所获结论对于中国上市公司并购策略的规划与预期,投资者心理与行为的研究都有一定的指导意义,因此本研究课题具有较好的现实价值。
文章综合利用多种分析方法,较为全面的对中国上市公司连续并购的短期、长期市场反应进行实证检验。研究发现：(1)中国上市公司的连续并购行为存在规律性；(2)市场受到多种心理偏差影响,并具备一定学习能力；(3)市场对上市公司连续并购的反应具有长期性特点。
In recent years, the M&A market in China had got great development. The merger and acquisition deals those done by listed companies have been increasingly active. With the fast growth of the number of merge and acquisition deals, the frequency of individual listed enterprises'M&A trades also improved quickly. For example, Yatai Group (600881) did 11 deals from 1998 to 2002. Actually, under the whole development projection for the listed enterprises, M&A has became a normalized capital operating method, which has show consistency and persistency. The M&A market in China has got a new character, which is changing from single deal to serial M&As, while the results got from single M&A maybe not siutbul for serial M&As. Therefore, listed enterprises'serial M&As have became a new phenomenon which deserving some researches.
Although foreign researchers have noticed the phenomenon and done some study, their view focusing the management of listed companies. And Chinese researchers have not started the relative researches. Therefore we think it is necessary to researching market reaction specific to listed enterprises'serial M&As. Firstly, as the supplement of single M&As, we can enlarge the M&As theories. Secondly, we can explain some phenomenon reasonably. Thirdly, we can provide dependable basis for listed enterprises' expanding projects as well as the study of investors'mind and behavior.
This paper takes the perspective of listed enterprises'serial M&As as the cutting point of discussing market reaction. The main work and conclusions of this paper are:
First of all, connotation analysis——this paper analyzes the meanings of serial M&As and market reaction. On the one hand, this paper analyzes serial M&As from theoretical study and empirical study. On the other hand, this paper differ market reaction as the changes of stock price after the first declaration date with the performance of operation.
Secondly, influence factors'research——this paper respectively analyzes possible factors which would impact market reaction to listed enterprises'serial M&As from the behaviors of investors as well as managers, trading pattern, the industry characters, government intervention.
Thirdly, the establishing of short-term market reaction model——based on the DHS model, this paper establishes the revised DHS model (f—DHS market reaction model) for serial acquisitions which are differentiated by the result of the first deal.
Fourthly, the emprical test of short-term market reaction model——this paper emprically tested f—DHS market reaction model and several critical factors with Chinese listed companies data from 2000 to 2009.
Fifthly, the establishing of long-term market reaction model——based on the conclusion of short-term analysis, this paper establishes the long-tern market reaction model (SYS—GMM market reaction model) basing on the dynamic panel data model.
Sixthly, the emprical test of long-term market reaction model——this paper emprically tested forecasted SYS—GMM market reaction model with Chinese listed companies data.
With the relative research conclusion, the innovations of this paper line in:
Firstly, the paper getting rid of the constraint of single deal, chooses the new trend of China's M&A market—serial M&As as the reaserch topic and explor the meaning of it.
Secondly, different from forgrin reaserchers foucsing on management, this paper from a new point of view—investors to do some study. It would enlarge the theory of serial M&As.
Thirdly, according to the increasing of acquisition orders, the changing of investors'mind as well as influence factors, this paper separates the market reaction to short and long. Then we establish the short-term market reaction model (f—DHS market reaction model) and the long-term market reaction model (SYS—GMM market reaction model).
Forthly, this paper empirically tests f—DHS market reaction model and SYS—GMM market reaction model. Since the relative conclusion has some guidance to our listed enterprises' project of serial acquisitions as well as the research of investors' mind and behaviour, this paper has great practical value.
With various research methods, we empirically explored the market reactions to Chinese enterprises'serial M&As. We found that (1) there are some regularities with listed enterprises' serial M&As; (2) market would be influenced by several psychological bias, and have study beavers; (3) market reaction to listed companies'serial M&As has long-term feature.
引文
1 《中国上市公司并购绩效专题研究报告》清科研究中心,2010
1邵万钦《美国企业并购浪潮》,中国商务出版社2005年1月版
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1邵万钦《美国企业并购浪潮》,中国商务出版社2005年1月版
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