南欧主权债务危机研究
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摘要
2010年以来,欧美主权债务危机风波不断,以“小猪五国”(PIIGS)为代表的南欧国家主权债务危机导致金融体系动荡,欧洲经济持续衰退。美国长期奉行的赤字财政政策导致债务规模屡破上限,世界最大债务人——美国其债务可持续性问题凸显。另一方面,自2010年以来,我国地方政府债务规模激增、潜在风险较大等问题也逐步暴露,其根本原因在于现有财税体制的弊端；现实原因是2008年金融危机以后,政府采用超强力度的财政扩张政策刺激经济。虽然我国财政状况总体稳健,但不容忽视的是从债务总规模、债务率以及存量结构等方面来看,我国地方政府债务有较多潜在风险,如不及早治理、有效规范,将成为“十二五”期间我国经济运行的重要风险因素。因此,本文对南欧国家主权债务危机这一“前车之鉴”从爆发和演进过程、历史与对比、自身与外部原因、救助与最终解决四个方面进行了深入研究,目的是给我国公共债务管理等方面提出可操作、可借鉴的政策建议。
2008年始于美国、席卷全球的金融危机是欧洲主权债务危机的导火索和引爆点,本文首先基于现任美联储主席本·伯南克提出的金融加速器理论,对美国次贷危机和欧洲主权债务危机的“似”与“不似”进行了解析,对欧洲主权债务危机的爆发、演进及影响进行了全方位的回顾和审视。以史为鉴，以期给我们更深刻、更宽阔的视角。本文随后对近几十年历史上较严重的主权债务危机基于新兴发展中国家和发达国家两个层面进行了比较研究,给出了一个对比分析框架。南欧主权债务危机的根源及债务危机前景和结局是论文分析的重点。主权债务危机的直接原因是一国公共财政的失衡,表现为公共财政支出超过财政收入出现差额。南欧各国采取了超前、透支的高福利制度政策,而实体经济的空心化和产业结构失衡也导致经济增长乏力。南欧各国自身经济、制度层面的缺陷是公共财政失衡、主权债务危机产生的根源。除南欧国家自身原因以外,欧元区的成立开启了新的时代,在经历最初“蜜月期”的高增长后,欧元区统一货币与分散财政的天然缺陷与内在痼疾凸显,货币联盟放大了南欧成员国的财政失衡,货币主权的丧失使其只能滥用财政政策手段解决经济失衡问题,最终酿成债务危机的祸根。
本文在分析南欧经济体制自身缺陷时,从财政赤字与税收和公共债务的关系角度,特别对南欧和北欧经济制度和福利政策从理论和实践两个层面进行了深入对比分析,对李嘉图等价定理进行了再思考,以探究同样作为欧盟成员国以及实行高福利制度的国家,为何南欧国家出现了主权债务危机,而北欧国家却安然无恙,高福利制度到底是否为主权债务危机的根源。南欧主权债务危机爆发以来,欧元消亡、欧元区崩溃,甚至欧盟解体成为热议话题,欧元区这一带有“天然缺陷”的理想主义实验最终将走向哪里,这场旷日持久的主权债务危机结局如何,不仅关系着欧元的命运,更对未来全球区域经济、货币一体化实践有着重要的启示和警示作用。本文对欧洲金融稳定基金、欧洲稳定机制的长期有效性、财政联盟成立的可能性、财政紧缩政策的真正作用,以及欧洲中央银行的政策基础等方面进行了深入剖析,并在此基础上对欧元未来发展趋势做出了预测。
我国地方政府债务有较多潜在风险,且前景不容乐观,地方政府债务一旦出现资金链条断裂等问题将可能导致系统性风险的产生。南欧主权债务危机的爆发和持续蔓延提醒我们,必须从产业结构调整、实现有福利的增长、债务管理和金融改革等多方面设计一揽子方案,防范可能出现的金融风险、财政风险甚至国家信用风险。
Since2010, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and America has put on one drama after another. The debt crisis in southern European countries, represented by the PUGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), has destabilized the financial system and dragged the European economy into prolonged recession. Meanwhile, the long-standing deficit policy of the U.S. has led to successive breaches of debt ceiling, and the debt sustainability of the U.S., the biggest borrower in the world, is a great source of concern. On the other hand, the local government debt in China has surged since2010, and the latent risks are significantly on the rise, which is fundamentally attributable to the inherent deficiencies of the current fiscal and tax regime and practically due to the economic stimulus measures taken by fiscal expansion in the wake of the global financial crisis in2008. Despite the overall soundness of China's fiscal position in terms of the aggregate debt level, ratio and structure, the local government debt in China is still fraught with many potential risks, which, if not controlled timely and regulated properly, will pose significant challenges to the Chinese economy. This dissertation analyzes the evolution, historical comparison, internal and external causes as well as bailout of the sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe, so as to offer viable policy suggestions for public debt management in China.
The global financial crisis that broke out in the U.S. and engulfed the world is the fuse and the flash point of the European sovereign debt crisis. From the perspective of the "financial accelerator" concept proposed by Ben Bernanke, this dissertation first demarcates the similarities and differences between the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the U.S. and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, and comprehensively reviews the burst, evolution and impact of the European sovereign debt crisis. History is a mirror, which presents us with an approach to gaining a deeper and broader insight into the debt crisis. Therefore, this dissertation subsequently draws comparison of the severe sovereign debt crisis between emerging and developed economies in the past decades, and presents a framework for comparative analysis. The internal and external causes, the prospect of the debt crisis and the possible fate of the euro zone are the key focus of this dissertation. The direct cause of the sovereign debt crisis is the imbalance of public finance, which is manifested by excessive fiscal spending over revenue. The southern European countries spend beyond their means on welfare. The hollowing-out of the real economy and the imbalance of industrial structure make the economic growth engine sputter. The economic and institutional deficiencies of southern European countries are the root causes behind the imbalance of public finance and sovereign debt crisis. Apart from the internal reasons of the southern European countries, the founding of the euro zone ushered in a new era, but soon after the initial "honey moon" period of rapid growth, the innate problems stemming from the fact that euro zone has a single currency but no single finance ministry started to emerge. The monetary union amplified the fiscal imbalance of southern European countries and the loss of monetary sovereignty forced them to address the imbalances by abusing fiscal policies, which ultimately triggered the debt crisis.
When expounding the inherent deficiencies of southern Europe, the dissertation specifically makes profound comparative analysis on the economic system and welfare policy of the southern European and Nordic countries from the perspective of fiscal deficit, taxation and public debt. It also gives a second thought on the Recardian Equivalence Theorem. The main purpose is to explore answers to the questions that why the sovereign debt crisis hit the southern European countries, not the Nordic ones, since they all adopt a broad welfare policy framework, and whether a high welfare system is the root cause of the debt crisis. Since the sovereign debt crisis broke out in southern Europe, there has been much debate on the demise of euro, the collapse of the euro zone and even the disintegration of the European Union. Where the euro zone, an idealist experiment born with "inherent deficiencies", might go and how the drama of sovereign debt crisis might draw the curtain in the end will not only determine the destiny of euro, but also offer lessons for the future attempt of regional and monetary integration elsewhere. This dissertation conducts in-depth research on the long-term effectiveness of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the possibility of building a fiscal union, the real effects of fiscal austerity and the policy considerations of the European Central Bank (ECB). On the base of the above-mentioned analysis, the author presents several scenarios on the future of the southern European debt crisis and the destiny of the euro zone.
There are growing potential risks with respect to the local government debt in China, and the outlook of the situation is not optimistic. Once the rapture of capital chain occurred in the local government debt, systemic risks would possibly be ignited. The sovereign debt crisis in southern European countries thus provides us with a sobering lesson: a package plan on areas such as industrial restructuring, welfare-friendly economic growth, debt management and financial sector reform must be designed to ward off potential financial, fiscal or even sovereign credit risks.
2008年始于美国、席卷全球的金融危机是欧洲主权债务危机的导火索和引爆点,本文首先基于现任美联储主席本·伯南克提出的金融加速器理论,对美国次贷危机和欧洲主权债务危机的“似”与“不似”进行了解析,对欧洲主权债务危机的爆发、演进及影响进行了全方位的回顾和审视。以史为鉴，以期给我们更深刻、更宽阔的视角。本文随后对近几十年历史上较严重的主权债务危机基于新兴发展中国家和发达国家两个层面进行了比较研究,给出了一个对比分析框架。南欧主权债务危机的根源及债务危机前景和结局是论文分析的重点。主权债务危机的直接原因是一国公共财政的失衡,表现为公共财政支出超过财政收入出现差额。南欧各国采取了超前、透支的高福利制度政策,而实体经济的空心化和产业结构失衡也导致经济增长乏力。南欧各国自身经济、制度层面的缺陷是公共财政失衡、主权债务危机产生的根源。除南欧国家自身原因以外,欧元区的成立开启了新的时代,在经历最初“蜜月期”的高增长后,欧元区统一货币与分散财政的天然缺陷与内在痼疾凸显,货币联盟放大了南欧成员国的财政失衡,货币主权的丧失使其只能滥用财政政策手段解决经济失衡问题,最终酿成债务危机的祸根。
本文在分析南欧经济体制自身缺陷时,从财政赤字与税收和公共债务的关系角度,特别对南欧和北欧经济制度和福利政策从理论和实践两个层面进行了深入对比分析,对李嘉图等价定理进行了再思考,以探究同样作为欧盟成员国以及实行高福利制度的国家,为何南欧国家出现了主权债务危机,而北欧国家却安然无恙,高福利制度到底是否为主权债务危机的根源。南欧主权债务危机爆发以来,欧元消亡、欧元区崩溃,甚至欧盟解体成为热议话题,欧元区这一带有“天然缺陷”的理想主义实验最终将走向哪里,这场旷日持久的主权债务危机结局如何,不仅关系着欧元的命运,更对未来全球区域经济、货币一体化实践有着重要的启示和警示作用。本文对欧洲金融稳定基金、欧洲稳定机制的长期有效性、财政联盟成立的可能性、财政紧缩政策的真正作用,以及欧洲中央银行的政策基础等方面进行了深入剖析,并在此基础上对欧元未来发展趋势做出了预测。
我国地方政府债务有较多潜在风险,且前景不容乐观,地方政府债务一旦出现资金链条断裂等问题将可能导致系统性风险的产生。南欧主权债务危机的爆发和持续蔓延提醒我们,必须从产业结构调整、实现有福利的增长、债务管理和金融改革等多方面设计一揽子方案,防范可能出现的金融风险、财政风险甚至国家信用风险。
Since2010, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and America has put on one drama after another. The debt crisis in southern European countries, represented by the PUGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), has destabilized the financial system and dragged the European economy into prolonged recession. Meanwhile, the long-standing deficit policy of the U.S. has led to successive breaches of debt ceiling, and the debt sustainability of the U.S., the biggest borrower in the world, is a great source of concern. On the other hand, the local government debt in China has surged since2010, and the latent risks are significantly on the rise, which is fundamentally attributable to the inherent deficiencies of the current fiscal and tax regime and practically due to the economic stimulus measures taken by fiscal expansion in the wake of the global financial crisis in2008. Despite the overall soundness of China's fiscal position in terms of the aggregate debt level, ratio and structure, the local government debt in China is still fraught with many potential risks, which, if not controlled timely and regulated properly, will pose significant challenges to the Chinese economy. This dissertation analyzes the evolution, historical comparison, internal and external causes as well as bailout of the sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe, so as to offer viable policy suggestions for public debt management in China.
The global financial crisis that broke out in the U.S. and engulfed the world is the fuse and the flash point of the European sovereign debt crisis. From the perspective of the "financial accelerator" concept proposed by Ben Bernanke, this dissertation first demarcates the similarities and differences between the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the U.S. and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, and comprehensively reviews the burst, evolution and impact of the European sovereign debt crisis. History is a mirror, which presents us with an approach to gaining a deeper and broader insight into the debt crisis. Therefore, this dissertation subsequently draws comparison of the severe sovereign debt crisis between emerging and developed economies in the past decades, and presents a framework for comparative analysis. The internal and external causes, the prospect of the debt crisis and the possible fate of the euro zone are the key focus of this dissertation. The direct cause of the sovereign debt crisis is the imbalance of public finance, which is manifested by excessive fiscal spending over revenue. The southern European countries spend beyond their means on welfare. The hollowing-out of the real economy and the imbalance of industrial structure make the economic growth engine sputter. The economic and institutional deficiencies of southern European countries are the root causes behind the imbalance of public finance and sovereign debt crisis. Apart from the internal reasons of the southern European countries, the founding of the euro zone ushered in a new era, but soon after the initial "honey moon" period of rapid growth, the innate problems stemming from the fact that euro zone has a single currency but no single finance ministry started to emerge. The monetary union amplified the fiscal imbalance of southern European countries and the loss of monetary sovereignty forced them to address the imbalances by abusing fiscal policies, which ultimately triggered the debt crisis.
When expounding the inherent deficiencies of southern Europe, the dissertation specifically makes profound comparative analysis on the economic system and welfare policy of the southern European and Nordic countries from the perspective of fiscal deficit, taxation and public debt. It also gives a second thought on the Recardian Equivalence Theorem. The main purpose is to explore answers to the questions that why the sovereign debt crisis hit the southern European countries, not the Nordic ones, since they all adopt a broad welfare policy framework, and whether a high welfare system is the root cause of the debt crisis. Since the sovereign debt crisis broke out in southern Europe, there has been much debate on the demise of euro, the collapse of the euro zone and even the disintegration of the European Union. Where the euro zone, an idealist experiment born with "inherent deficiencies", might go and how the drama of sovereign debt crisis might draw the curtain in the end will not only determine the destiny of euro, but also offer lessons for the future attempt of regional and monetary integration elsewhere. This dissertation conducts in-depth research on the long-term effectiveness of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the possibility of building a fiscal union, the real effects of fiscal austerity and the policy considerations of the European Central Bank (ECB). On the base of the above-mentioned analysis, the author presents several scenarios on the future of the southern European debt crisis and the destiny of the euro zone.
There are growing potential risks with respect to the local government debt in China, and the outlook of the situation is not optimistic. Once the rapture of capital chain occurred in the local government debt, systemic risks would possibly be ignited. The sovereign debt crisis in southern European countries thus provides us with a sobering lesson: a package plan on areas such as industrial restructuring, welfare-friendly economic growth, debt management and financial sector reform must be designed to ward off potential financial, fiscal or even sovereign credit risks.
引文
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