我国突发自然灾害应急救灾物资配送系统优化研究
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摘要
我国是世界上自然灾害发生较多的国家之一,经常发生洪水、地震、台风、泥石流、生物灾害、禽流感等自然灾害。如1998年长江的大洪水、2003年的SARS、2005年的新疆地震、2008年初的南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害和2008年5月12日的汶川特大地震等自然灾害。尽管我国政府及相关组织有减灾防灾的预案,但目前所支出的物流成本是巨大的。在突发性自然灾害造成的巨大人员伤亡和财产损失中,由于低效的应急物流配送造成的损失约占总损失的15%至20%。如SARS造成的损失总额达176亿美元,其中应急物流配送造成的损失约30亿美元。
近年来,突发自然灾害救助问题得到了我国政府高度重视,1998年张北地震后民政部将国家级(中央级)救灾储备库由原来的8个增加到现在的10个。2008年“5.12”大地震后,民政部联合发改委做了新的规划,将国家级救灾物资储备库由10个增加到24个,目前这个规划正在顺利实施。同时各省、自治区、直辖市相继建立了31个省级储备库,灾害多发市、县也相继建立了各自的储备库,储存物资数量和质量水平都有较大提高。2006年1月10日发布了《国家自然灾害救助应急预案》,该预案在应对2008年初我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害的过程中起到了重要作用。尽管在应对突发自然灾害方面已取得了很大的成就,但目前还没有解决灾害救助物流的时间过长、成本过大的问题。
本文首先针对涉及到的相关概念,如突发自然灾害、应急物流以及突发自然灾害救助应急物流等进行界定,然后从以下四个方面进行研究：突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价研究、突发自然灾害救助应急物资需求研究、突发自然灾害救助应急物资配送车辆调度问题识别及网络拓扑结构研究以及突发自然灾害应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型研究。
在突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价的研究中,首先讨论了国内外突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价的研究现状,并进一步分析了我国突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价系统的特点、存在的问题以及指标构建的原则；其次建立了突发自然灾害受灾程度评价指标体系,即多维度多层次评价指标体系；再次对突发自然灾害受灾程度评价的方法进行比较、选择；最后以“碧利斯”台风为例,运用选择的评价方法对突发自然灾害受灾程度评价进行实证研究。
在突发自然灾害救助应急物资需求的研究中,首先分析了突发自然灾害应急救助物资的概念和特点；其次分别运用案例推理和BP神经网络两种方法对突发自然灾害应急救助物资的需求进行预测；最后进行了实例验证,并提出了区域突发自然灾害应急救助物资的来源和需求平衡机理。
在针对突发自然灾害救助应急物资配送车辆调度问题及网络拓扑结构的研究中,首先,本文主要分析了国内外应急物资配送研究的现状,包括模型的建立和模型的算法设计与求解；然后建立了突发自然灾害救助应急物流配送的网络拓扑结构,包括三种：只考虑公路运输的“最后一公里问题”、某地区只考虑公路运输和区域内多种运输方式的综合运输,为对救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型的研究奠定了基础。
在突发自然灾害应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型的研究中,首先对问题进行描述、对模型边界条件进行界定与说明,在此基础上构建了应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型；其次本文对求解模型的算法——遗传算法的特点及适用性进行了分析；最后,运用遗传算法对所建立的应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型进行了求解和实例验证。
China has one of the most natural disasters in the world, there are many natural disasters happened frequently, including floods, earthquakes, typhoons, landslides, biological hazards and avian flu, such as the flood broke out in Yangtze river in 1998, the "SARS"spreaded in 2003, the earthquake happened in Xinjiang Province in 2005, the freeze disaster appeared in the southern part of China in 2008. Although our government and related organizations have already issued preplan about disaster prevention and reduction, the expenditure of the logistics cost is huge. In the great casualties and property losses which are caused by sudden natural disasters, the losses caused by inefficient emergency logistics makes up the total loss of 15% to 20%.For example,"SARS" lost totaling 17.6 billion, including the lost of contingency logistics and distribution about 30 billion dollars.
In recent years, sudden natural disaster relief issue has raised China's government's great attention. In 1998 after the Zhangbei earthquake the national Ministry of Civil Affairs (central level) increased the original pool of 8 to 10 now.After the 2008 "5.12" earthquake, the Joint Development and Reform Commission Ministry of Civil Affairs made a new program, from which the national pool of relief supplies added to 24 from 10. Currently, the smooth implementation of this plan is in the process. Meanwhile the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have established a pool of 31 provincial-level, disaster-prone cities and counties have also established their own repository, the quantity and quality of storage material has greatly improved.
On January 10 in 2006, the government also issued a "national natural disaster relief emergency plan, "which played an important role in dealing with the southern cold snow and ice storms happening in 2008.Although great achievements on burst natrual disasters have been made, the questions of the longer logistics time and the more logistics cost in disaster relief are still not solved.
Firstly, the paper defines some words, such as sudden natural disasters, emergency logistics according to the related concepts.Secondly, the paper begins to do the research from the following four aspects:"The research on the evaluation of the degree of unexpected natural disasters", "The research on the demand of relief goods and materials of unexpected natural disasters", "A network topology based on sudden natural disaster relief emergency logistics distribution"and "The model of vehicle routing for the distribution of emergency aid".
Affected by sudden natural disasters in the evaluation of the degree level study.First discussed the research grade evaluation about the extent of domestic and foreign victims of sudden natural disasters, and further analyzed the features of the level evaluation system about the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree, problems and the principle of indicators'building. Second, established the level evaluation system about the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree, that is multi-dimensional and multi-level evaluation index system.Third, compared and choosed the method of the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree evaluation.Finally, used the selected evaluation methods to research the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree evaluation and prove it true, for example "Bilis" Typhoon.
In the study of the demand for emergency supplies to sudden natural disasters. First, analysis the characteristics and the conception of the emergency supplies to sudden natural disasters; followed by the use of case-based reasoning method and BT neural network ways to predict the requirements of the emergency supplies to sudden natural disasters; finally, carry out an empirical study and proposed the source and demand balance mechanism to the regional emergency aid of sudden natural disasters.
Against the problem of scheduling the vehicle transporting emergency relief materials during sudden natural disasters. And the study of network topology.First, this study analyzes the present situation about the distribution of emergency supplies at home and abroad including establishment of a model and the solution and algorithm about the model.And then create a network topology, on sudden natural disaster relief emergency logistics distribution.Concerning three types:only consider the road transport of the "last mile problem ", a region considers only within the road transport and a regional integrated transport using multi-modal ways.
Laying the foundation on relief supplies for the Vehicle Routing optimization mode.In the study about the model of vehicle routing for the distribution of emergency aid.First, from two aspects about the description of the problem and the definition about model boundary conditions establish the emergency relief materials distribution vehicle routing optimization model.Second, this paper analyzes the characteristics and applicability of algorithm, genetic algorithms, for solving the mode.Finally, using the genetic algorithm to solve and empirical research the established distribution of emergency relief supplies for vehicle routing optimization model.
近年来,突发自然灾害救助问题得到了我国政府高度重视,1998年张北地震后民政部将国家级(中央级)救灾储备库由原来的8个增加到现在的10个。2008年“5.12”大地震后,民政部联合发改委做了新的规划,将国家级救灾物资储备库由10个增加到24个,目前这个规划正在顺利实施。同时各省、自治区、直辖市相继建立了31个省级储备库,灾害多发市、县也相继建立了各自的储备库,储存物资数量和质量水平都有较大提高。2006年1月10日发布了《国家自然灾害救助应急预案》,该预案在应对2008年初我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害的过程中起到了重要作用。尽管在应对突发自然灾害方面已取得了很大的成就,但目前还没有解决灾害救助物流的时间过长、成本过大的问题。
本文首先针对涉及到的相关概念,如突发自然灾害、应急物流以及突发自然灾害救助应急物流等进行界定,然后从以下四个方面进行研究：突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价研究、突发自然灾害救助应急物资需求研究、突发自然灾害救助应急物资配送车辆调度问题识别及网络拓扑结构研究以及突发自然灾害应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型研究。
在突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价的研究中,首先讨论了国内外突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价的研究现状,并进一步分析了我国突发自然灾害受灾程度等级评价系统的特点、存在的问题以及指标构建的原则；其次建立了突发自然灾害受灾程度评价指标体系,即多维度多层次评价指标体系；再次对突发自然灾害受灾程度评价的方法进行比较、选择；最后以“碧利斯”台风为例,运用选择的评价方法对突发自然灾害受灾程度评价进行实证研究。
在突发自然灾害救助应急物资需求的研究中,首先分析了突发自然灾害应急救助物资的概念和特点；其次分别运用案例推理和BP神经网络两种方法对突发自然灾害应急救助物资的需求进行预测；最后进行了实例验证,并提出了区域突发自然灾害应急救助物资的来源和需求平衡机理。
在针对突发自然灾害救助应急物资配送车辆调度问题及网络拓扑结构的研究中,首先,本文主要分析了国内外应急物资配送研究的现状,包括模型的建立和模型的算法设计与求解；然后建立了突发自然灾害救助应急物流配送的网络拓扑结构,包括三种：只考虑公路运输的“最后一公里问题”、某地区只考虑公路运输和区域内多种运输方式的综合运输,为对救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型的研究奠定了基础。
在突发自然灾害应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型的研究中,首先对问题进行描述、对模型边界条件进行界定与说明,在此基础上构建了应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型；其次本文对求解模型的算法——遗传算法的特点及适用性进行了分析；最后,运用遗传算法对所建立的应急救助物资配送车辆路径优化模型进行了求解和实例验证。
China has one of the most natural disasters in the world, there are many natural disasters happened frequently, including floods, earthquakes, typhoons, landslides, biological hazards and avian flu, such as the flood broke out in Yangtze river in 1998, the "SARS"spreaded in 2003, the earthquake happened in Xinjiang Province in 2005, the freeze disaster appeared in the southern part of China in 2008. Although our government and related organizations have already issued preplan about disaster prevention and reduction, the expenditure of the logistics cost is huge. In the great casualties and property losses which are caused by sudden natural disasters, the losses caused by inefficient emergency logistics makes up the total loss of 15% to 20%.For example,"SARS" lost totaling 17.6 billion, including the lost of contingency logistics and distribution about 30 billion dollars.
In recent years, sudden natural disaster relief issue has raised China's government's great attention. In 1998 after the Zhangbei earthquake the national Ministry of Civil Affairs (central level) increased the original pool of 8 to 10 now.After the 2008 "5.12" earthquake, the Joint Development and Reform Commission Ministry of Civil Affairs made a new program, from which the national pool of relief supplies added to 24 from 10. Currently, the smooth implementation of this plan is in the process. Meanwhile the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have established a pool of 31 provincial-level, disaster-prone cities and counties have also established their own repository, the quantity and quality of storage material has greatly improved.
On January 10 in 2006, the government also issued a "national natural disaster relief emergency plan, "which played an important role in dealing with the southern cold snow and ice storms happening in 2008.Although great achievements on burst natrual disasters have been made, the questions of the longer logistics time and the more logistics cost in disaster relief are still not solved.
Firstly, the paper defines some words, such as sudden natural disasters, emergency logistics according to the related concepts.Secondly, the paper begins to do the research from the following four aspects:"The research on the evaluation of the degree of unexpected natural disasters", "The research on the demand of relief goods and materials of unexpected natural disasters", "A network topology based on sudden natural disaster relief emergency logistics distribution"and "The model of vehicle routing for the distribution of emergency aid".
Affected by sudden natural disasters in the evaluation of the degree level study.First discussed the research grade evaluation about the extent of domestic and foreign victims of sudden natural disasters, and further analyzed the features of the level evaluation system about the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree, problems and the principle of indicators'building. Second, established the level evaluation system about the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree, that is multi-dimensional and multi-level evaluation index system.Third, compared and choosed the method of the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree evaluation.Finally, used the selected evaluation methods to research the sudden natural disasters and disaster degree evaluation and prove it true, for example "Bilis" Typhoon.
In the study of the demand for emergency supplies to sudden natural disasters. First, analysis the characteristics and the conception of the emergency supplies to sudden natural disasters; followed by the use of case-based reasoning method and BT neural network ways to predict the requirements of the emergency supplies to sudden natural disasters; finally, carry out an empirical study and proposed the source and demand balance mechanism to the regional emergency aid of sudden natural disasters.
Against the problem of scheduling the vehicle transporting emergency relief materials during sudden natural disasters. And the study of network topology.First, this study analyzes the present situation about the distribution of emergency supplies at home and abroad including establishment of a model and the solution and algorithm about the model.And then create a network topology, on sudden natural disaster relief emergency logistics distribution.Concerning three types:only consider the road transport of the "last mile problem ", a region considers only within the road transport and a regional integrated transport using multi-modal ways.
Laying the foundation on relief supplies for the Vehicle Routing optimization mode.In the study about the model of vehicle routing for the distribution of emergency aid.First, from two aspects about the description of the problem and the definition about model boundary conditions establish the emergency relief materials distribution vehicle routing optimization model.Second, this paper analyzes the characteristics and applicability of algorithm, genetic algorithms, for solving the mode.Finally, using the genetic algorithm to solve and empirical research the established distribution of emergency relief supplies for vehicle routing optimization model.
引文
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