我国大豆生产技术及应用的经济分析
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摘要
中国是大豆的原产国,曾经在很长时期内是大豆和豆粕的净出口国,90年代中期开始成为大豆和大豆产品的净进口国。近年来我国大豆需求持续增长,据《国家粮食安全中长期规划(2006—2020)》预测,“十一五”期间我国大豆需求量年增长率为3.49%,2007年我国大豆进口达3082万t,更是达到了创纪录的水平。由于跨国粮商垄断了世界粮食交易量的80%,导致大豆定价权旁落,大豆进口的不确定性因素不断增加,矛盾最突出的就是进口大豆价格变化的不确定性增加了我国大豆产业稳定发展的风险。在进口大豆的冲击下,近年来国内大豆农户的生产积极性锐减,大豆播种面积连年下降,加剧了对我国粮食安全的负面影响。保持稳定增长的大豆总产量对于保障国家粮食安全、维护物价稳定、保护2000万豆农的切身利益至关重要。由于大豆播种面积在短期内无法迅速扩大,要实现这一目标根本途径就是加快大豆生产技术的推广应用,提高大豆单产水平。基于此,对我国大豆生产技术及应用问题进行深入系统的研究具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。
     从经济学的角度分析大豆生产技术的应用具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。在理论上,明确大豆生产技术的经济特征,对大豆生产技术需求行为、供给行为、采用行为和技术进步、技术效率进行经济分析,有助于加强人们对大豆生产技术及应用的重视,掌握规律,推动生产技术应用研究的深入;在实践上将为提高大豆生产技术效率提供依据,进一步推动我国大豆生产的发展,为促进农民增收和保障国家粮食安全作出贡献。
     本文以需求供给理论、农业技术创新扩散理论、诱导性技术创新理论、农户行为理论为指导,采用比较分析法,总结分析美国、巴西、阿根廷等大豆主产国大豆生产技术及其应用对我国的有益启示和可借鉴之处。采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,分析大豆生产技术需求和供给行为、农户采用大豆生产技术采用行为,从理论上阐述大豆生产技术存在有效需求和有效供给不足的问题,以及农户采用大豆生产技术行为的影响因素,运用实证分析揭示当前我国农户对大豆生产技术需求行为的优先序、影响因素和影响程度以及农户技术采用行为的影响因素。为充分了解农户对大豆生产技术需求行为特征,论文还对大豆主产区黑龙江省宾县、五常市、巴彦县、绥棱县、木兰县、延寿县、拜泉县等县市村屯进行抽样调查,并以绥化市北林区兴聚科技合作社、国家大豆科技入户工程示范县拜泉县的大豆生产技术供给创新模式为例进行个案分析。论文还运用模型分析法,分析农户技术需求的影响因素和影响程度,计算我国大豆的科技进步贡献率以及中国大豆技术进步和技术效率的增长情况,为实证分析提供数据支撑。
     论文主要包括十个部分:
     第一部分为引言,主要阐述了本研究课题的背景与意义,国内外文献综述及相关研究进展、研究课题的来源、主要研究内容与研究方法及本论文的可能创新和不足之处。
     第二部分是大豆生产技术的概念界定与理论基础,分析了农业技术的内涵与特征、概括总结了大豆生产技术及其应用的概念界定与类型、分析了大豆生产技术的经济学特性、大豆生产技术对我国大豆产业发展的作用,本部分还探讨了大豆生产技术及应用的基本理论及相关理论问题,为全文研究奠定理论基础。
     第三部分是国外大豆生产技术应用的比较分析,介绍了美国、巴西、阿根廷三个主产国大豆生产技术的应用情况,比较总结了三个主产国在大豆生产技术应用上的共同特征及个性,为我国大豆生产技术的应用提供了借鉴和启示。
     第四部分是大豆农户生产技术需求分析,通过选取黑龙江省的六个县市乡镇的13个村的样本进行调查,统计出农户对大豆生产技术类型的需求分析、对大豆生产具体技术措施的需求分析,然后建模进行农户技术需求的实证分析,最后得出对大豆农户技术需求的影响因素、影响程度的分析。
     第五部分是我国大豆生产技术的供给分析,设计了生产技术供给特性及供给主体选择分析、农业技术供给主体的概述、生产技术供给形式分析,对我国大豆生产技术供给的总体状况、存在问题及成因进行了分析,为下面的实证及案例分析提供了参考。
     第六部分是大豆农户技术采用行为分析,基于农户技术采用行为经济分析的基础,在黑龙江省巴彦县和拜泉县各选取四个样本村进行了农户抽样调查,分析不同地区农户技术采用的来源渠道、影响因素等方面的差异。
     第七部分是我国大豆生产的技术进步和技术效率分析,运用柯布道格拉斯生产函数模型对我国大豆技术进步贡献率进行了测定,分析了影响技术进步贡献率的因素,并运用DEA的Malnquist指数分析方法,建立模型,分析中国大豆技术进步和技术效率的增长情况,得出1989-2005年我国及大豆主产省的大豆生产综合技术效率、纯技术效率及规模效率。
     第八部分是我国大豆生产技术供给创新模式的探索与实践,以国家科技入户工程和绥化北林区大豆兴聚合作社的发展情况作为案例,分析政府农业推广组织的技术供给创新模式和农民专业合作组织为主的农业技术供给创新模式,最后得出对加强我国大豆生产技术应用的启示。
     第九部分是促进中国大豆生产技术应用的对策建议,在上文的研究基础上,结合我国的国情,提出促进中国大豆生产技术应用的对策建议。
     第十部分是研究结论,对全文进行总结。
     本论文的可能创新之处:
     (1)研究思路和视角上的创新。在当前我国大豆产业面临严重危机的情况下,本研究认为振兴我国的大豆产业必须从提高我国大豆的生产技术应用水平,从而在提高国产大豆的单产、质量和降低成本上寻求突破。通过对大豆生产技术的供给、需求和应用进行经济学分析,研究提高大豆生产技术应用水平的途径和对策,尝试破解国产大豆竞争力弱化这一难题,最终实现作强大豆产业的目标。当前国内对生产技术进行经济分析的研究还很少,多数是就技术谈技术,就推广谈推广,在大豆领域鲜见有从这个角度展开的相关研究。
     (2)首次对大豆生产技术进行理论界定,总结大豆生产技术的经济学特性,如措施类技术的纯公共品特性、大豆服务类技术的准公共品和俱乐部产品特性、大豆物化型技术的私人产品特性等。
     (3)在实证分析的基础上,测算了大豆农户科技需求的优先序,建立农户技术需求模型,对农户大豆技术需求影响因素以及影响程度进行估算分析。
     (4)在研究方法上,首次应用DEA的Malnquist指数分析方法分析中国大豆的生产率、技术效率和规模效率,具有一定的创新性。
     (5)在研究内容与结论上,力求在大豆的生产技术的供给,农户大豆生产技术的需求,农户大豆生产技术的采用及对策研究等方面进行创新。本文力图从全新的经济学的角度研究大豆生产技术问题,因此论文的研究内容涉及用经济学分析大豆生产技术及应用问题,内容丰富,研究结论与对策适时可行,希望关于更好的利用大豆技术服务大豆产业发展等方面的研究能有所创新。
China was a net exporter of soybean and soybean meal within very long period and it is an origin country of soybean.However, in the mid-1990s it turned from a net export country for soybean and soybean product to a net import one. In recent years, soybean demand of our country is keeping sustained and sTab. growth, in "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" Period, our country soybean demand's annual growth rates will be 3.49% and in 2007 our country's soybean import will be 30.82 million t, up to an unprecedented level, according to the forecast of the Medium and Long-Term plan of country's grain supply (from 2006 to 2020) . Because transnational grain merchant has monopolized 80 percentworld of the world's grain volume of business and fixed price right of the soybean has falling, at the same time the uncertainty of the outcome on soybean import is building up nicely, the most contradiction is that great uncertainty of the change on soybean price which increses the risk of steady soybean industry development in China. As a result of the impact of import soybean, in recent years, soybean households in China lacks the enthusiasm and soybean sown area has declindde year by year which is increasing its negative influence on food security . Soybean industry in our country is in the unsTab. and insecure condition, so keeping sTab. growth in soybean gross product is vital for ensuring national security, keeping prices sTab. and protecting benefit of 20 million Soybean households. Soybean sown area can't rapitly expend in the short time, In order to realize the goals, we must speed up the promotion and utilization of soybean production technique and increase Soybean single birth levels.In this condition, systematically and thoroughly studying the problem of our soybean production technique and it's application is of profound theoretical and practical purpose.
     Economically, analysing the problem of our soybean production technique and it's application is of profound theoretical and practical purpose. In principle, defining theeconomy characteristic of soybean production technique, analysing requirement behaviors, supply Behaviors, adoption behaviors, technological progress and technological efficiency are instrumental in strengthening to pay great attention to soybean production technique and it's application, getting the run of it, and driving the analysis of production technique and it's application; In actual practice, it provides a justify for improving soybean product technological efficiency, drives the improvement of soybean product, and contributes to increase income for farmers and ensure national grain security.
     Theory of demand and supply, technology innovation diffusion of agricultural, inducible technology innovation and peasant Households' behavior as our guide, this study use the comparative analysis method, summarizing useful inspiration and experience about soybean production technique and it's application of America, Brazil and Argentina, which are the main soybean production country. The paer analyses the demand-supply behover and peasant Households'adoption behaviors of soybean production technique, using the real diagnosis analysis and the standard analysis, expounding that soybean production technique existing the problem of insufficient effective demand and insufficient effective supply, and expounding the influences of peasant households'adoption behavior of soybean production technique, in thory.The paper revealed the reasonable order of priority of demand behover about peasant Households'soybean production technique, modifying factor , modifying extent and the influences of peasant households' behavior of soybean production technique, using the standard analysis method. In order to achieving complete understanding of the character of peasant households' demand behavior of soybean production technique, a sample survey conducted among villages of Bingxian, Wuchang, Bayan town, Suiling town, Mulan, Yanshou town, Baiquan town , which are main soybean areas in Heilongjiang , and analysed the cases of Suihua City Forest-North-technology cooperative and Soybean production supply innovative model in Baiquan which is the State soybean technology demonstration projects in home.this study Using model analysis method, analysed the modifying factor and extent of pesant households'technique demand, the condition of contribution rate of science and technology to soybean and technique efficiency in China, providing data support for the standard analysis.
     The thesis consists essentially of ten parts:
     The first part is foreword, which mainly elaborates the background, the meaning of this thesis, the domestic and international literature overview, related progresses of research, the source, the main contents, the method of the research and the possibility innovation and shortage of the thesis.
     The second part is the concept limits and rationale of the soybean produce technology, which analyses the connotation and characteristic of agricultural technology; summarized the soybean production technology and the application concept limits and the type; analyzes the economic characteristic of soybean production technology; the function of soybean production technology to the development soybean industrial in our country. Also, this part has discussed elementary theory and the correlation theories of the soybean production technology and the application. All above lays the rationale for the research of the thesis.
     The third part is the comparative analysis of the overseas application of the soybean production technology, which introduces the application situation of the soybean production technology in the three host produce countries, American, Brazilian and Argentine and compares and summarized the common characteristic and the individuality of the soybean production technology in the three host produce countries. All above provides the reference and inspires for the application of the soybean production in our country.
     The fourth part is the analysis of the technology demand of the soybean peasant households. This part begins to carry on the investigation through selecting 20 villages samples from eight counties, cities or villages in Heilongjiang Province, counts the demand analysis of the type of the soybean production technology and the concrete technical measure to the peasant households, and then set up the model to carries on the empirical analysis of the soybean peasants' technology demand. Finally, this part gives the analysis of the influencing factor and the influence of the soybean peasants' technology demand.
     The fifth part is the supplies analysis of the soybean production technology in our country, which designs the analysis of supply characteristic of the production technology and the choice of the main body of supply, the outline of supply main body of the agricultural technology and the formal analysis of the supplies formal of the production technology. Then this part analyses the overall condition, the existence problems and the origin of the supply of the soybean production technology in our country. All above provides the reference for the following real diagnosis and the case analysis.
     The sixth part is the behavioral analysis of the soybean peasants' technology uses, which is based on the economic behavioral analysis of the soybean peasants'. I selected four sample villages Bayan County and Baiquan County in the Heilongjiang Province to carry on the sample investigation of the peasants in order to analyses the differences of the source and influncing factors and other aspects on the technology uses in different areas.
     The seventh part is the analysis of technology advancement and the technology efficiency of soybean production in China, which exerts the C-D model to measure the technical progress advanced ratio of soybean production technology, analyses the influencing factors of technical progress advanced ratio, use the analysis method of Malnquist index of DEA, set up the model, analyzes the growth situation of the soybean technology advancement and the technical efficiency in China and finally gives the result of the synthesis technology efficiency, the merely technical efficiency and the scale efficiency of the soybean host produces the province in 1989-2005 in China.
     The eighth part is the exploration and the practice of the innovation pattern of the supply of the soybean production technology in China. This part analyses the technical supplies innovation pattern of the government's agricultural extension organizations and the farmer's specialized cooperative organizations. Finally, this part gives the enlightenment to strengthens the application of the soybean production technology in China.
     The ninth part is the countermeasures suggestion to promote the application of the soybean production technology in China. On the foundation of the analysis above, proposed the countermeasures suggestion that promotes the application of the soybean production technology unifying the national condition of our country'.
     The tenth part is the conclusion, which summaries the thesis.
     There maybe some innovation about this study:
     (1) The innovation in research mentality and angle.
     In the current our country soybean industry faced with the serious crisis, this research thought that promoting our country's soybean industry should seek the breakthrough from enhancing the production technology application level, the per unit area yield, the quality and reduceing the cost of our country soybean.
     The way and the countermeasure of raising the soybean production technology application leve. attempt to explain the domestically produced soybean competitive power to attenuate this difficult problem through the economic analysis on the soybean production technology's supplies, the demand and the application, finally make the goal of soybean industry strongly, which is rarely seen in the soybean domain launches from this angle. The current the research of the economic analysis on the production technology in China is very few, most are discussing the technology on the technology, the promotion discussing the promotion.
     (2) Define the theory of the soybean production technology for the first time , summarize the soybean production technology economic characteristic, like pure public characteristic of measure technology, soybean servicete technology public and club product characteristic, the personal product characteristic of soybean physical and chemical technology and so on.
     (3) On the foundation of empirical analysis, it has surveyed the priority order of technical requirements which soybean farmers demand, establishes the demand model of peasant household technical demand , carries on the estimate analysis of the peasant household soybean technology demand influencing factor as well as the influence.
     (4) In the research methods, analyzes the productivity, the technical efficiency and the scale efficiency of the Chinese soybean , using the DEA Malnquist index analysis method for the first time, has certain innovation.
     (5) In the research content and the conclusion, try to innovate in supplies of the soybean production technology, the demand of peasant household soybean production technology, the use and countermeasure of the peasant household soybean production technology and so on . This article tries from the brand-new economic angle to research soybean production technical question, therefore the paper research content involves with the economic to analysis the soybean question, rich content, the research conclusion and the countermeasure are at the right moment and feasible, hope the innovation in these aspect research which can the better use soybean technology serve in the soybean industry development.
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