基于系统动力学的经济增长对铜产业的传导机制及实证研究
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摘要
中国经济增长将继续保持良好势头，同时也面临着关键转型。经济的发展与转型必将对中国铜产业的发展带来巨大的影响。中国铜产业将会受到怎样的影响？这种影响表现在铜产业各环节的供需指标上将会是怎样的变化趋势？面对这种影响及变化，中国铜产业应当如何应对？这些都是急需研究和回答的问题。研究中国经济增长对铜产业的传导机制能够回答上述问题。本文在构建“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型的基础上，界定并分析了经济增长对铜产业的传导机制，并采用情景分析法分析了三种不同发展情景下中国经济增长趋势及其对铜产业的影响结果。本文的研究工作和主要贡献集中在以下四个方面：
（1）界定了“经济增长-铜产业”系统。“经济增长-铜产业”系统是指在经济和产业运行背景下，由经济、人口、铜产业等多种系统要素耦合而成的复合系统。该系统包含经济增长和铜产业两个子系统，两个子系统之间相互作用、互为影响。
（2）构建了“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型。本文基于产业链理论分析了铜产业的主要特征和组成环节，采用物质流分析法分析了铜产业子系统的要素因果关系和反馈机制，然后通过分析中国铜产业和经济增长的关系，构建了“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型。
（3）界定并分析了经济增长对铜产业的传导机制。“经济增长-铜产业”系统传导机制就是经济增长在发挥作用的过程中，各经济增长要素和铜产业指标通过精铜需求变化作用形成的一个有机联系的整体。
（4）采用情景分析法，计算并分析了2012-2030年三种发展情景下的中国经济增长结果及其对铜产业的影响并提出了相应的政策建议。情景分析结果显示，在2012-2030年，年均增速较大的指标为铜精矿产量、精铜产量、精铜消费量、铜材产量、废铜间接利用量和废铜累计回收量。这些指标都是国内产能，意味着国内产能在中国铜产业中将发挥越来越重要的作用。在铜矿采选环节，铜精矿进口依然是铜矿资源的主要供给来源。但是，铜精矿进口量在大幅下降。在铜精炼环节，精铜产量始终大于精铜进口量，意味着国内产能依然是精铜的主要供给来源。在废铜回收利用环节，进口废铜量依然是废铜回收利用的主体，其用量要大于铜精炼和铜加工环节回收的废铜量。
因此，我国在继续重视铜精矿进口的基础上，巩固和保持现有的进口关系和渠道；精铜产量目标应当保持在950万吨到1300万吨之间；铜资源城市或企业应当在2020年之前实现城市产业或企业发展的转型升级，以规避铜需求下降带来的风险；铜加工产能调控目标应当在2000万吨以内，鼓励铜加工业向其它发展中国家转移；扩大废铜进口量，保证废铜进口量至少能够达到850万吨，提升企业对促进再生铜资源利用的技术能力。
China's economic growth will continue to maintain a good momentum and to face criticalchallenge, which will bring a huge impact on the development of China's copper industry. Whatkind of impact will be suffered for Chinese copper industry? What the change trends will bewhen the impact are exert on the supply and demand indicators in various aspects of copperindustry? How China's copper industry deal with this influence? These are questions urgentlyneeded to be researched and answered.
Researching transmission mechanism of China economic growth on copper industry cananswer these questions. Based on building "Economic growth-Copper industry" systemdynamics model, and then defining and analyzing transmission mechanism of economicgrowth on copper industry. Finally, based on the system dynamics model and scenario analysisto analyze China's economic growth trends and its impact on the copper industry under threescenarios. Main research work and contributions are as follows:
(1) Definition of "Economic growth-Copper industry" system."Economic growth-Copper industry" system refers to the complex industrial system, which is coupled by a varietyof elements of economic, demographic, copper industry. The system includes two subsystems:economic growth, and the copper industry. The two subsystems interact and influence eachother.
(2) Construction of the "Economic growth-Copper industry" system dynamics model.Based on the theory of supply chain, the main characteristics and compositions of the copperindustry sectors was analyzed. Meanwhile, analyzing the causality and feedback mechanismsof elements of copper industry subsystem by using material flow analysis. By analyzing therelationship between the Chinese copper industry and economic growth, building an"Economic growth-Copper industry" system dynamics model.
(3) Defining and analyzing the transmission mechanism of economic growth on thecopper industry. The transmission mechanism of the "Economic growth-Copper industry"system refers to the entirety, under the influence of economic growth, which is formed by theeconomic growth factors and copper industry indicators. Demand for refined copper is the hubof the transmission mechanism.
(4) By using scenario analysis, to calculate and analyze the results of China's economicgrowth and its impact on the development of the copper industry in2012-2030under threescenarios. The corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. Results showed that from2012to2030, the indicators with larger annual growth rate are the production of copperconcentrate, refined copper and copper alloys, consumption of refined copper, and the amountof direct and indirect use of copper scrap. These indicators are all the domestic productioncapacity, which means from2012to2030, the domestic production capacity will play anincreasingly important role.
In the area of copper ore mining, imported copper concentrate is still the main source ofsupply of copper ore resources. However, foreign dependence of copper concentrate willclearly decline. In copper refining sectors, domestic supply is the main source of supply ofrefined copper. In the aspects of copper scrap recycling, scrap copper imports are still the mainbody of copper scrap recycling, for its amount is greater than the amount of recycling copperscrap.
Therefore, the advice for the healthy and reasonable development of China’s copperindustry includes: keeping an eye on consolidating and maintaining existing trade relationshipsbesides putting emphasis on the basis of and channels of imports; control objectives ofproduction of refined copper should be maintained between9.5million tons to13million tons;copper resource-based city or enterprises should complete the transformation and upgradebefore2020in order to avoid the risk brought by decline in copper demand; control objectivesof copper alloys production should be limited to20million tons, and encouraging copperprocessing industry to transfer to other developing countries; expanding to ensure the amountof imported scrap copper is not less than8.5million tons; enhancing the technologicalenterprises capabilities of promoting the use of copper scrap.
（1）界定了“经济增长-铜产业”系统。“经济增长-铜产业”系统是指在经济和产业运行背景下，由经济、人口、铜产业等多种系统要素耦合而成的复合系统。该系统包含经济增长和铜产业两个子系统，两个子系统之间相互作用、互为影响。
（2）构建了“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型。本文基于产业链理论分析了铜产业的主要特征和组成环节，采用物质流分析法分析了铜产业子系统的要素因果关系和反馈机制，然后通过分析中国铜产业和经济增长的关系，构建了“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型。
（3）界定并分析了经济增长对铜产业的传导机制。“经济增长-铜产业”系统传导机制就是经济增长在发挥作用的过程中，各经济增长要素和铜产业指标通过精铜需求变化作用形成的一个有机联系的整体。
（4）采用情景分析法，计算并分析了2012-2030年三种发展情景下的中国经济增长结果及其对铜产业的影响并提出了相应的政策建议。情景分析结果显示，在2012-2030年，年均增速较大的指标为铜精矿产量、精铜产量、精铜消费量、铜材产量、废铜间接利用量和废铜累计回收量。这些指标都是国内产能，意味着国内产能在中国铜产业中将发挥越来越重要的作用。在铜矿采选环节，铜精矿进口依然是铜矿资源的主要供给来源。但是，铜精矿进口量在大幅下降。在铜精炼环节，精铜产量始终大于精铜进口量，意味着国内产能依然是精铜的主要供给来源。在废铜回收利用环节，进口废铜量依然是废铜回收利用的主体，其用量要大于铜精炼和铜加工环节回收的废铜量。
因此，我国在继续重视铜精矿进口的基础上，巩固和保持现有的进口关系和渠道；精铜产量目标应当保持在950万吨到1300万吨之间；铜资源城市或企业应当在2020年之前实现城市产业或企业发展的转型升级，以规避铜需求下降带来的风险；铜加工产能调控目标应当在2000万吨以内，鼓励铜加工业向其它发展中国家转移；扩大废铜进口量，保证废铜进口量至少能够达到850万吨，提升企业对促进再生铜资源利用的技术能力。
China's economic growth will continue to maintain a good momentum and to face criticalchallenge, which will bring a huge impact on the development of China's copper industry. Whatkind of impact will be suffered for Chinese copper industry? What the change trends will bewhen the impact are exert on the supply and demand indicators in various aspects of copperindustry? How China's copper industry deal with this influence? These are questions urgentlyneeded to be researched and answered.
Researching transmission mechanism of China economic growth on copper industry cananswer these questions. Based on building "Economic growth-Copper industry" systemdynamics model, and then defining and analyzing transmission mechanism of economicgrowth on copper industry. Finally, based on the system dynamics model and scenario analysisto analyze China's economic growth trends and its impact on the copper industry under threescenarios. Main research work and contributions are as follows:
(1) Definition of "Economic growth-Copper industry" system."Economic growth-Copper industry" system refers to the complex industrial system, which is coupled by a varietyof elements of economic, demographic, copper industry. The system includes two subsystems:economic growth, and the copper industry. The two subsystems interact and influence eachother.
(2) Construction of the "Economic growth-Copper industry" system dynamics model.Based on the theory of supply chain, the main characteristics and compositions of the copperindustry sectors was analyzed. Meanwhile, analyzing the causality and feedback mechanismsof elements of copper industry subsystem by using material flow analysis. By analyzing therelationship between the Chinese copper industry and economic growth, building an"Economic growth-Copper industry" system dynamics model.
(3) Defining and analyzing the transmission mechanism of economic growth on thecopper industry. The transmission mechanism of the "Economic growth-Copper industry"system refers to the entirety, under the influence of economic growth, which is formed by theeconomic growth factors and copper industry indicators. Demand for refined copper is the hubof the transmission mechanism.
(4) By using scenario analysis, to calculate and analyze the results of China's economicgrowth and its impact on the development of the copper industry in2012-2030under threescenarios. The corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. Results showed that from2012to2030, the indicators with larger annual growth rate are the production of copperconcentrate, refined copper and copper alloys, consumption of refined copper, and the amountof direct and indirect use of copper scrap. These indicators are all the domestic productioncapacity, which means from2012to2030, the domestic production capacity will play anincreasingly important role.
In the area of copper ore mining, imported copper concentrate is still the main source ofsupply of copper ore resources. However, foreign dependence of copper concentrate willclearly decline. In copper refining sectors, domestic supply is the main source of supply ofrefined copper. In the aspects of copper scrap recycling, scrap copper imports are still the mainbody of copper scrap recycling, for its amount is greater than the amount of recycling copperscrap.
Therefore, the advice for the healthy and reasonable development of China’s copperindustry includes: keeping an eye on consolidating and maintaining existing trade relationshipsbesides putting emphasis on the basis of and channels of imports; control objectives ofproduction of refined copper should be maintained between9.5million tons to13million tons;copper resource-based city or enterprises should complete the transformation and upgradebefore2020in order to avoid the risk brought by decline in copper demand; control objectivesof copper alloys production should be limited to20million tons, and encouraging copperprocessing industry to transfer to other developing countries; expanding to ensure the amountof imported scrap copper is not less than8.5million tons; enhancing the technologicalenterprises capabilities of promoting the use of copper scrap.
引文
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