内蒙古公路交通与区域经济发展的相关性定量研究
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摘要
交通运输业是区域经济的基础性、先导性产业,公路交通作为最基本、最广泛的交通运输方式,是整个交通运输系统的重要组成部分,也是社会经济系统的重要组成部分。公路交通与区域的经济发展有着密切的联系,它们之间主要存在着相互促进或者相互制约的关系。
随着国家实施西部大开发战略,内蒙古区域经济进入了全新的快速发展阶段。2001～2009年,内蒙古地区国内生产总值年平均增长速度高于17%,超过全国平均水平7个多百分点,在全国经济总量的排序中也从24位上升到15位。与此同时,内蒙古的公路建设事业也有了突飞猛进的发展,“三横九纵十二出口”公路主骨架构成的交通网络框架已基本形成。到2009年末,全区公路总里程达到15.07万公里,公路密度达到12.74公里/百平方公里。高等级公路从无到有,已建成高速公路达到2176公里,干线公路比重也在不断提高,公路运输已然成为内蒙古主要的交通运输手段。2009年内蒙古完成投资317.03亿元用于公路建设,创历史最高水平,掀起公路建设的新高潮。这种直接的投资将直接也必将刺激区域经济的快速发展。
本文以内蒙古统计年鉴(2002～2010年)和内蒙古自治区交通厅统计资料(2009年)为数据源,运用运输经济弹性系数分析、灰色关联度分析、多维灰色模型(1,N)等研究方法,在灰色系统理论建模系统3.0和Excel等软件环境中,综合分析了内蒙古公路交通与区域经济系统之间的相关关系,研究结果如下：
(1)2001～2009年内蒙古GDP与公路货物运输周转量的运输经济弹性系数基本呈上升趋势且呈正值,说明公路运输增长和经济增长是正相关的。但在大部分年份里均小于1,说明内蒙古公路货物运输业的发展滞后于其区域经济发展。其中,货物运输经济弹性系数在2008年出现了最高值3.25,因为在2008年奥运期间内蒙古成为了北京的物资大后方,大批特色产品通过高速公路运进首都,使内蒙古2008年的货运周转量达到656.99亿吨公里,比上年增长33.5%。
(2)2001～2009年内蒙古GDP与公路旅客运输周转量的运输经济弹性系数大体呈下降趋势,而且基本低于0.6并出现负值,说明旅客运输的增长速度严重滞后于经济增长速度,旅客运输业在一定程度上制约了内蒙古的经济发展。也是在2008年,出现了旅客运输经济弹性系数的最低值-1.03,这是由于内蒙古整个客运市场以普通客车和中巴车为主,导致运输效率低、运输承载能力低,技术性能相对落后,安全系数小所致。
(3)2001～2009年内蒙古公路交通系统与区域经济系统的灰色关联度值大部分在0.65以上,属高度关联。说明内蒙古公路交通与区域经济之间的关联度一直保持在一个较高的水平上,可以肯定内蒙古公路交通运输的发展直接影响着内蒙古区域经济的发展。
(4)从各个关联度值的大小来看,在公路交通系统中,与GDP的关联度最高的指标是货物周转量,关联度达到0.9200,说明货物运输业发展与经济发展的关系非常密切,货运在经济发展中的作用得到确认。而各类公路指标中与经济发展的平均关联度最高的是高速公路里程,关联度为0.9604,最低的是干线公路比重,关联度为0.5218。说明在公路交通系统中高速公路的发展与经济发展的关系最为密切。2001年,内蒙古自治区确定了能源、冶金、化工、重型装备制造、农畜产品加工、高新技术产业等六大特色优势产业,作为推进新型工业化的主体后,六大特色优势产业对全区工业增长的贡献率达到90%以上,成为拉动工业快速增长的主要动力,而高速公路里程也从2001年的151公里增长到2009年的2176公里,高速公路的发展拉动了工业快速发展,对经济发展起到了直接的推动作用。而干线公路比重与经济发展的关系就不明显,说明内蒙古干线公路的发展需要加强。
Transportation industry is the basic and proactive industry of regional economy. Highway traffic as the most basic and most extensive transportation way is the important part of whole transportation system the social economic system. Highway traffic and regional economic development has the close relation, There mainly exist between them promote each other or interdependent relationship.
As countries carrying out the strategy for western development, regional economy of Inner Mongolia has entered a new stage of rapid growth. From 2001 to 2009, GDP of Inner Mongolia grew at an average annual rate higher than 17%, More than the national average level 7 more points, the sort in the national total economy rise From the first 15 r to the first 24 bits. Meanwhile, the highway construction of the Inner Mongolia undertaking also had breakneck development. At the end of 2009, the highway total mileage reaches 15.07 million kilometers, highway density 12.74 kilometers/reached 100 square kilometers. Expressway from scratch, expressway has been completed to 2176 kilometers; proportion of the arterial highway had greatly improved. In the Inner Mongolia, highway transportation has become the main transportation means. Inner Mongolia completed in 2009 investment 317.03 billion Yuan in highway construction.This kind of direct investment will stimulate the rapid development of regional economy directly.
In this paper, the writer analyzed the relationship between the highway traffic system and the regional economy system of Inner Mongolia using Transportation economy elasticity coefficient analysis grey relational analysis, and multi-dimensional grey model (1, N),Based on the statistical yearbook of Inner Mongolia (2002～2010) and Inner Mongolia autonomous region communications department statistics (2009) as data sources. The results were as follows:
(1)From 2001 to 2009, the elasticity coefficient between GDP and Highway freight turnover of Inner Mongolia showed a rising trend basically. It's explained highway transportation growth and economic growth are related. But in most years it were less than 1, Explain the development of Inner Mongolia highway transportation lag in its regional economic development. It reached the peak 3.25 in 2008, because Inner Mongolia became the supplies rear area of Beijing during the Olympic Games in Beijing. Large special products of Inner Mongolia into the capital through the highway It also made the freight turnover of Inner Mongolia in 2008 to 656.99 billion ton-km,33.5% increase from the previous year.
(2) From 2001 to 2009, the elasticity coefficient between GDP and Highway passenger turnover of Inner Mongolia showed a lowering trend basically, and most of them were less than 0.6 and the emergence of a negative value, it's explain the passenger transportation growth rate lag behind economic growth, passenger transportation restricted the economic development of Inner Mongolia in some extent. The 2008 also appeared a passenger transport economic elastic coefficient of the lowest-1.03.This is because by the passenger market give priority to ordinary buses and medium-sized buses in Inner Mongolia, the transportation capacity is low, technical performance is relatively backward..
(3) From 2001 to 2009, Most of the Grey correlation value between highway traffic system and regional economic system of Inner Mongolia more than 0.65, its Belong to moderate association. It's explained that correlation between highway traffic and regional economy of Inner Mongolia has remained at a higher level. Certainly the development of Inner Mongolia highway transportation directly influences the development of regional economy in Inner Mongolia.
(4) The size of the grey relational display:the highest correlation in highway traffic system between GDP is freight turnover. It's explain that goods transportation development and economic development to a close relationship. The role in the economic development of freight confirmed. The expressway mileage is the average highest correlation of and all kinds of highway index with economic development, and the Road proportion is the average lowest correlation of And all kinds of highway index with economic development. In 2001, Inner Mongolia autonomous region identified energy, metallurgy, chemical industry, heavy equipment manufacturing, farm products processing, and high-tech industries and so on six big special advantage industries, to advance new industrialization. Six special advantage industries in the contribution of industrial growth up to 90%.And the expressway mileage from the 2001 151 km growth 2009 2176 kilometers, highway developments to boosting industrial rapid development.But the relationship of main highways proportion and the economic development is unclear, explain the development of Inner Mongolia road is not ideal.
随着国家实施西部大开发战略,内蒙古区域经济进入了全新的快速发展阶段。2001～2009年,内蒙古地区国内生产总值年平均增长速度高于17%,超过全国平均水平7个多百分点,在全国经济总量的排序中也从24位上升到15位。与此同时,内蒙古的公路建设事业也有了突飞猛进的发展,“三横九纵十二出口”公路主骨架构成的交通网络框架已基本形成。到2009年末,全区公路总里程达到15.07万公里,公路密度达到12.74公里/百平方公里。高等级公路从无到有,已建成高速公路达到2176公里,干线公路比重也在不断提高,公路运输已然成为内蒙古主要的交通运输手段。2009年内蒙古完成投资317.03亿元用于公路建设,创历史最高水平,掀起公路建设的新高潮。这种直接的投资将直接也必将刺激区域经济的快速发展。
本文以内蒙古统计年鉴(2002～2010年)和内蒙古自治区交通厅统计资料(2009年)为数据源,运用运输经济弹性系数分析、灰色关联度分析、多维灰色模型(1,N)等研究方法,在灰色系统理论建模系统3.0和Excel等软件环境中,综合分析了内蒙古公路交通与区域经济系统之间的相关关系,研究结果如下：
(1)2001～2009年内蒙古GDP与公路货物运输周转量的运输经济弹性系数基本呈上升趋势且呈正值,说明公路运输增长和经济增长是正相关的。但在大部分年份里均小于1,说明内蒙古公路货物运输业的发展滞后于其区域经济发展。其中,货物运输经济弹性系数在2008年出现了最高值3.25,因为在2008年奥运期间内蒙古成为了北京的物资大后方,大批特色产品通过高速公路运进首都,使内蒙古2008年的货运周转量达到656.99亿吨公里,比上年增长33.5%。
(2)2001～2009年内蒙古GDP与公路旅客运输周转量的运输经济弹性系数大体呈下降趋势,而且基本低于0.6并出现负值,说明旅客运输的增长速度严重滞后于经济增长速度,旅客运输业在一定程度上制约了内蒙古的经济发展。也是在2008年,出现了旅客运输经济弹性系数的最低值-1.03,这是由于内蒙古整个客运市场以普通客车和中巴车为主,导致运输效率低、运输承载能力低,技术性能相对落后,安全系数小所致。
(3)2001～2009年内蒙古公路交通系统与区域经济系统的灰色关联度值大部分在0.65以上,属高度关联。说明内蒙古公路交通与区域经济之间的关联度一直保持在一个较高的水平上,可以肯定内蒙古公路交通运输的发展直接影响着内蒙古区域经济的发展。
(4)从各个关联度值的大小来看,在公路交通系统中,与GDP的关联度最高的指标是货物周转量,关联度达到0.9200,说明货物运输业发展与经济发展的关系非常密切,货运在经济发展中的作用得到确认。而各类公路指标中与经济发展的平均关联度最高的是高速公路里程,关联度为0.9604,最低的是干线公路比重,关联度为0.5218。说明在公路交通系统中高速公路的发展与经济发展的关系最为密切。2001年,内蒙古自治区确定了能源、冶金、化工、重型装备制造、农畜产品加工、高新技术产业等六大特色优势产业,作为推进新型工业化的主体后,六大特色优势产业对全区工业增长的贡献率达到90%以上,成为拉动工业快速增长的主要动力,而高速公路里程也从2001年的151公里增长到2009年的2176公里,高速公路的发展拉动了工业快速发展,对经济发展起到了直接的推动作用。而干线公路比重与经济发展的关系就不明显,说明内蒙古干线公路的发展需要加强。
Transportation industry is the basic and proactive industry of regional economy. Highway traffic as the most basic and most extensive transportation way is the important part of whole transportation system the social economic system. Highway traffic and regional economic development has the close relation, There mainly exist between them promote each other or interdependent relationship.
As countries carrying out the strategy for western development, regional economy of Inner Mongolia has entered a new stage of rapid growth. From 2001 to 2009, GDP of Inner Mongolia grew at an average annual rate higher than 17%, More than the national average level 7 more points, the sort in the national total economy rise From the first 15 r to the first 24 bits. Meanwhile, the highway construction of the Inner Mongolia undertaking also had breakneck development. At the end of 2009, the highway total mileage reaches 15.07 million kilometers, highway density 12.74 kilometers/reached 100 square kilometers. Expressway from scratch, expressway has been completed to 2176 kilometers; proportion of the arterial highway had greatly improved. In the Inner Mongolia, highway transportation has become the main transportation means. Inner Mongolia completed in 2009 investment 317.03 billion Yuan in highway construction.This kind of direct investment will stimulate the rapid development of regional economy directly.
In this paper, the writer analyzed the relationship between the highway traffic system and the regional economy system of Inner Mongolia using Transportation economy elasticity coefficient analysis grey relational analysis, and multi-dimensional grey model (1, N),Based on the statistical yearbook of Inner Mongolia (2002～2010) and Inner Mongolia autonomous region communications department statistics (2009) as data sources. The results were as follows:
(1)From 2001 to 2009, the elasticity coefficient between GDP and Highway freight turnover of Inner Mongolia showed a rising trend basically. It's explained highway transportation growth and economic growth are related. But in most years it were less than 1, Explain the development of Inner Mongolia highway transportation lag in its regional economic development. It reached the peak 3.25 in 2008, because Inner Mongolia became the supplies rear area of Beijing during the Olympic Games in Beijing. Large special products of Inner Mongolia into the capital through the highway It also made the freight turnover of Inner Mongolia in 2008 to 656.99 billion ton-km,33.5% increase from the previous year.
(2) From 2001 to 2009, the elasticity coefficient between GDP and Highway passenger turnover of Inner Mongolia showed a lowering trend basically, and most of them were less than 0.6 and the emergence of a negative value, it's explain the passenger transportation growth rate lag behind economic growth, passenger transportation restricted the economic development of Inner Mongolia in some extent. The 2008 also appeared a passenger transport economic elastic coefficient of the lowest-1.03.This is because by the passenger market give priority to ordinary buses and medium-sized buses in Inner Mongolia, the transportation capacity is low, technical performance is relatively backward..
(3) From 2001 to 2009, Most of the Grey correlation value between highway traffic system and regional economic system of Inner Mongolia more than 0.65, its Belong to moderate association. It's explained that correlation between highway traffic and regional economy of Inner Mongolia has remained at a higher level. Certainly the development of Inner Mongolia highway transportation directly influences the development of regional economy in Inner Mongolia.
(4) The size of the grey relational display:the highest correlation in highway traffic system between GDP is freight turnover. It's explain that goods transportation development and economic development to a close relationship. The role in the economic development of freight confirmed. The expressway mileage is the average highest correlation of and all kinds of highway index with economic development, and the Road proportion is the average lowest correlation of And all kinds of highway index with economic development. In 2001, Inner Mongolia autonomous region identified energy, metallurgy, chemical industry, heavy equipment manufacturing, farm products processing, and high-tech industries and so on six big special advantage industries, to advance new industrialization. Six special advantage industries in the contribution of industrial growth up to 90%.And the expressway mileage from the 2001 151 km growth 2009 2176 kilometers, highway developments to boosting industrial rapid development.But the relationship of main highways proportion and the economic development is unclear, explain the development of Inner Mongolia road is not ideal.
引文
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[3]Holtz-Eakin, D. and Schwartz, A. E. (1995)infrastructure in a Structural Model of Economic Growth. Regional Science and Urban Economics,25(2):131-151.
[4]Durkin, Jr. J. T. and Wassmer, R. W. (1994)Public Infrastructure Spending and Private Generation in Large US Cities. Working Paper, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA
[5]李玉辉.山东省交通与区域经济及社会发展的关系研究——以经济发展水平不同的江苏、陕西为例[D].长沙：长沙理工大学,2006
[6]Aschauer, A. D. (1989)Is Public Expenditure Productive Journal of Monetary Ecomonics,23(2):177-200.
[7]李晓宁.公路运输与区域经济梯度发展的协调性研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2010
[8]Morisugi. H, Evaluation methodogies of transportation projects in Japan[J]. Tranport Policy Volume:7, Issue:1, January,2000
[9]Kitamura, Ryuichi;Fujii, Satosh, Time-use data, analysis and modeling:toward the 'next generation of transportation planning methodologies[J]. Transport Policy Volume:4, Issue:4, October,1997
[10]肖自仁.广东城际交通与区域经济发展的互动关系研究[D].长沙：中南大学,2005：5-7.
[11]杨兆升,范精明.交通运输与经济发展[J].经济问题,1995,8：42-43
[12]陆大道等.中国区域发展的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2003,222
[13]刘建强,何景华.交通运输业与区域经济发展的实证研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2002,2(1)：82-86
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