基于网络研判的高校群体突发事件预警平台的研究
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摘要
随着经济发展的不断深入,我国进入了社会发展的转型期。这一时期内,社会矛盾凸显,社会利益急剧调整,容易对大学生群体的思想、信念造成冲击和动摇。当代大学生具有较强的自我意识和很强的参与社会的愿望。如果其愿望、诉求得不到表达,或者受到压制,容易产生过激行为,进而导致群体事件的发生,影响高校及社会的正常秩序。高校是社会的窗口,大学生是国家的未来,有效预防高校群体突发事件因此显得尤为重要。群体事件通常具有一定的组织性,事前会出现大量的相关舆情信息。网络的深入普及和发展使网络成为舆情传播的新载体。为了能及时有效的掌握舆情态势,就需要建设基于网络舆情研判的高校群体事件预警平台。
本文以BBS论坛、博客、具有评论功能的新闻网站为研究对象,通过提出集成了舆情信息采集、内容分析、话题提取、趋势预测、预警发布等多种技术的群体事件预警平台实现方案,为分析网络舆情、预防群体事件发生提供有益的思路和探索。对群体事件的预警是建立在分析网络舆情信息、提取热点话题、预测话题热度趋势、对预测结果与群体事件样本数据进行规则匹配的思路之上。
本论文的主要成果有:提出了基于网络研判的高校群体突发事件预警平台的总体设计方案;实现了基于页面文档相似性分析、链接分析的面向主题的聚焦爬虫,链接分析中应用了网络的无标度特性;设计了告警发布子系统的实现方案,并基于ARIMA模型实现了话题趋势预测模块,提出基于规则引擎的预警生成模块方案并实现,为高校突发事件预警平台的实现提供了思路。
With the deepening of economic development, social development of our country has entered a period of transition. In this period, various contradictions of society get highlighted and exposed; the interests of the community are out of proportion and making rapid adjustment. It's easy to get mass undergraduate's thought and faith shocked and budged. Undergraduate students of the current generation possess strong self-awareness, but also have strong desires to participate in social affairs. However, if they can't express their appeal and desire, or get suppressed, it would easily lead the students to act irrational behavior, even to the occurrence of mass crisis, which would impact the normal order of colleges and our society. Colleges and universities are the window of our community, and students are the future of our country. Therefore, it is particularly import to effectively prevent mass undergraduate incidents from happening.
The mass group incidents all have certain sense of organization, so there will be a lot of related public opinion information. And with the deepening and development of Internet, it has become a new kind of vector-borne for public opinion. In order to acquire the trend and situation of public opinion, it is intensively demanded that the construction of web-analysis based pre-warning platform for mass undergraduate crisis.
This thesis takes BBS, Blog, News sites with commentary function as investigated subjects; propounds a scheme for mass graduate crisis pre-warning platform, which apply and integrate a variety of techniques such as public opinion information collection, content analysis, topic extraction, mechanism of early warning, etc. It also provides the useful ideas and exploration for analysis of public opinion and early warning of mass group incidents. Before making early warning, it takes processes of that analysis of public opinion, hot topic extraction, forecasting for trend of hot topic, pattern matching forecast results with sample data.
The main results in this thesis include: the program design of the whole system; realization of subject-oriented focused crawler which bases on page similarity analysis and hyperlinks analysis, applying the properties of scale-free network in hyperlinks analysis; giving the realizable program of public opinion alarm subsystem; the realization of ARIMA based topic trends forecast module; proposing the design and realization of pre-warning generation module based on rules engine. All of the ideas provided above are helpful for the realization of mass undergraduate crisis early-warning platform.
本文以BBS论坛、博客、具有评论功能的新闻网站为研究对象,通过提出集成了舆情信息采集、内容分析、话题提取、趋势预测、预警发布等多种技术的群体事件预警平台实现方案,为分析网络舆情、预防群体事件发生提供有益的思路和探索。对群体事件的预警是建立在分析网络舆情信息、提取热点话题、预测话题热度趋势、对预测结果与群体事件样本数据进行规则匹配的思路之上。
本论文的主要成果有:提出了基于网络研判的高校群体突发事件预警平台的总体设计方案;实现了基于页面文档相似性分析、链接分析的面向主题的聚焦爬虫,链接分析中应用了网络的无标度特性;设计了告警发布子系统的实现方案,并基于ARIMA模型实现了话题趋势预测模块,提出基于规则引擎的预警生成模块方案并实现,为高校突发事件预警平台的实现提供了思路。
With the deepening of economic development, social development of our country has entered a period of transition. In this period, various contradictions of society get highlighted and exposed; the interests of the community are out of proportion and making rapid adjustment. It's easy to get mass undergraduate's thought and faith shocked and budged. Undergraduate students of the current generation possess strong self-awareness, but also have strong desires to participate in social affairs. However, if they can't express their appeal and desire, or get suppressed, it would easily lead the students to act irrational behavior, even to the occurrence of mass crisis, which would impact the normal order of colleges and our society. Colleges and universities are the window of our community, and students are the future of our country. Therefore, it is particularly import to effectively prevent mass undergraduate incidents from happening.
The mass group incidents all have certain sense of organization, so there will be a lot of related public opinion information. And with the deepening and development of Internet, it has become a new kind of vector-borne for public opinion. In order to acquire the trend and situation of public opinion, it is intensively demanded that the construction of web-analysis based pre-warning platform for mass undergraduate crisis.
This thesis takes BBS, Blog, News sites with commentary function as investigated subjects; propounds a scheme for mass graduate crisis pre-warning platform, which apply and integrate a variety of techniques such as public opinion information collection, content analysis, topic extraction, mechanism of early warning, etc. It also provides the useful ideas and exploration for analysis of public opinion and early warning of mass group incidents. Before making early warning, it takes processes of that analysis of public opinion, hot topic extraction, forecasting for trend of hot topic, pattern matching forecast results with sample data.
The main results in this thesis include: the program design of the whole system; realization of subject-oriented focused crawler which bases on page similarity analysis and hyperlinks analysis, applying the properties of scale-free network in hyperlinks analysis; giving the realizable program of public opinion alarm subsystem; the realization of ARIMA based topic trends forecast module; proposing the design and realization of pre-warning generation module based on rules engine. All of the ideas provided above are helpful for the realization of mass undergraduate crisis early-warning platform.
引文
[1]陈伟同志在山东大学、山东师范大学视察团的工作时的讲话要点.http://www.sdyl.gov.cn/ol d/ldjh/cwjh3.htm.[2007-11]
[2]彭学君.大学生群体危机生成演化机理与控制研究[学位论文].北京理工大学.2006.2.2-4,10-12
[3]欧永美,李锦顺.高校学生群体性突发事件处理机制研究.广州工业大学学报(社会科学版).2007.9.78-81
[4]彭知辉.论群体性事件与网络舆情.上海公安高等专科学校学报.2008.18(1).46-50
[5]搜索引擎分类.http://www.se-express.com/about/aboutl.htm.[2009-5]
[6]周黎明,邱均平.基于网络的内容分析法.情报学报.2005.24(5).594-599
[7]刘毅.内容分析法在网络舆情信息分析中的应用.天津大学学报(社会科学版).2006.8(4).307-310
[8]邱均平,黄晓斌,段宇锋,等.网络数据分析.北京:北京大学出版社.2004.111
[9]英国开发出舆论分析软件1秒钟能阅读10篇文章.http://news.xinhuanet.com/newmedia/2005-04/14/content_2826931.htm.[2009-4]
[10]方正智思舆情辅助决策支持系统(产品).信息化建设.2005.10.50-52
[11]军犬网络舆情监控系统.http://www.54yuqing.com/index.html[2009-5]
[12]李舒晨,刘云,李勇.网络舆情分析中网页信息预处理方案的实现.电脑与电信.2008.152.30-33
[13]张华平,刘群.基于N-最短路径方法的中文词语粗分模型.中文信息学报.2001.16(5).1-7
[14]刘立平.一种中文文本聚类方法的研究[学位论文].湘潭大学.2003.11
[15]程辉,刘云.基于时间序列的网络舆情预测模型.网际网路技术学刊.2008.9(5).429-432
[16]Google Web Toolkit.http://code.google.com/intl/en/webtoolkit/.[2009-5]
[17]周立柱,林玲.聚焦爬虫技术研究综述.计算机应用.2005.25(9).1965-1969
[18]Soumen Chakrabarti,Martin van den Berg,Byron Dom.Focused Crawling:a new approach to topic-specific Web resource discovery,the Eighth World Wide Web Conference,1999,Toronto,Canada.
[19]Hongyu Liu,Evangelos Milios,Jeannette Janssen.Probabilistic models for focused web crawling.6th ACM International Workshop on Web Information and Data Management (WIDM2004),Nov 12-13,2004,Washington,DC,USA
[20]汪涛,樊效忠.链接分析对主题爬虫的改进.计算机应用.2004.24(12).174-176
[21]Lada A.Adamic.The Small World Web.http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/papers/smallwo rld/smallworld.pdf.[2008-12-23]
[22]郭明,丁华福.基于SOM网和K—Means的聚类算法.计算机与数字工程.2008.9.22-24
[23]杨占华,杨燕.SOM神经网络算法的研究与发展.计算机工程.2006.32(16):201-202
[24]程军军,刘云.基于新闻评论的热点话题发现系统研究.网际网路技术学刊.2008.9(5).433-436.
[25]George E.P.Box,Gwilym M.Jenkins.Time Series Forecasting and Control.Prentice Hall.1976
[26]中国人民银行调查统计司.时间序列X-12-ARIMA季节调整-原理与方法.中国金融出版 社.2006.27-35
[27]毛艺萍.统计预测模型的算法研究及新发展[学位论文].暨南大学.2006.31-33
[28]jboss.org:community driven.http://www.jboss.org/drools/.[2009-5]
[2]彭学君.大学生群体危机生成演化机理与控制研究[学位论文].北京理工大学.2006.2.2-4,10-12
[3]欧永美,李锦顺.高校学生群体性突发事件处理机制研究.广州工业大学学报(社会科学版).2007.9.78-81
[4]彭知辉.论群体性事件与网络舆情.上海公安高等专科学校学报.2008.18(1).46-50
[5]搜索引擎分类.http://www.se-express.com/about/aboutl.htm.[2009-5]
[6]周黎明,邱均平.基于网络的内容分析法.情报学报.2005.24(5).594-599
[7]刘毅.内容分析法在网络舆情信息分析中的应用.天津大学学报(社会科学版).2006.8(4).307-310
[8]邱均平,黄晓斌,段宇锋,等.网络数据分析.北京:北京大学出版社.2004.111
[9]英国开发出舆论分析软件1秒钟能阅读10篇文章.http://news.xinhuanet.com/newmedia/2005-04/14/content_2826931.htm.[2009-4]
[10]方正智思舆情辅助决策支持系统(产品).信息化建设.2005.10.50-52
[11]军犬网络舆情监控系统.http://www.54yuqing.com/index.html[2009-5]
[12]李舒晨,刘云,李勇.网络舆情分析中网页信息预处理方案的实现.电脑与电信.2008.152.30-33
[13]张华平,刘群.基于N-最短路径方法的中文词语粗分模型.中文信息学报.2001.16(5).1-7
[14]刘立平.一种中文文本聚类方法的研究[学位论文].湘潭大学.2003.11
[15]程辉,刘云.基于时间序列的网络舆情预测模型.网际网路技术学刊.2008.9(5).429-432
[16]Google Web Toolkit.http://code.google.com/intl/en/webtoolkit/.[2009-5]
[17]周立柱,林玲.聚焦爬虫技术研究综述.计算机应用.2005.25(9).1965-1969
[18]Soumen Chakrabarti,Martin van den Berg,Byron Dom.Focused Crawling:a new approach to topic-specific Web resource discovery,the Eighth World Wide Web Conference,1999,Toronto,Canada.
[19]Hongyu Liu,Evangelos Milios,Jeannette Janssen.Probabilistic models for focused web crawling.6th ACM International Workshop on Web Information and Data Management (WIDM2004),Nov 12-13,2004,Washington,DC,USA
[20]汪涛,樊效忠.链接分析对主题爬虫的改进.计算机应用.2004.24(12).174-176
[21]Lada A.Adamic.The Small World Web.http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/papers/smallwo rld/smallworld.pdf.[2008-12-23]
[22]郭明,丁华福.基于SOM网和K—Means的聚类算法.计算机与数字工程.2008.9.22-24
[23]杨占华,杨燕.SOM神经网络算法的研究与发展.计算机工程.2006.32(16):201-202
[24]程军军,刘云.基于新闻评论的热点话题发现系统研究.网际网路技术学刊.2008.9(5).433-436.
[25]George E.P.Box,Gwilym M.Jenkins.Time Series Forecasting and Control.Prentice Hall.1976
[26]中国人民银行调查统计司.时间序列X-12-ARIMA季节调整-原理与方法.中国金融出版 社.2006.27-35
[27]毛艺萍.统计预测模型的算法研究及新发展[学位论文].暨南大学.2006.31-33
[28]jboss.org:community driven.http://www.jboss.org/drools/.[2009-5]