中国农村教育机会不均等演进及其与收入分配关系研究
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摘要
中央政府在上世纪90年代末推动了一系列教育改革,使得这段时期的中国教育发展呈现出两个明显特征：一是非义务教育机会总量大幅增加,这是通过短期内大规模高校扩招和大幅提高初中毕业升学率来实现的,最明显的是大学入学率由1998年的46.1%急升到1999年的63.8%。二是教育机会的分配出现了明显不利于社会经济资源处于劣势家庭孩子的迹象。在高等教育成本迅速增加的同时,在另一端推行“双向选择,自主择业”的就业制度,大学生“就业难”问题随之出现,使得劣势群体获得高等教育预期收益的风险大大提升。
本文要探索的问题是,在入学门槛不断降低,同时教育成本上升与预期收益不确定性增加,以及农村地区内部社会分化加剧的大背景下,中国农村内部教育机会不均等将如何变化?这种变化又与上述教育政策的实施有何内在联系?当前农村地区仍存大量教育不平等现象(如初中辍学),又与哪些家庭背景因素有关呢?一个进一步的问题是,这一时期教育机会分配结构的变动,对正逐步走向阶层分化的农村地区收入分配变动又有何影响?
与大多数研究基于对各阶段教育转换或最终受教育水平进行回归分析,并间接推断各种因素对机会不均等变动影响的思路不同,本文主要采取了基于同胞相关系数与多层线性模型的机会不均等因素分解方法。首先,在CHNS跟踪调查数据的基础上构建了70后与80后两个出生同期群的相关数据集,采用分同期群研究变动趋势的通行办法,应用组内相关系数、多层方差成分模型、多层logistic随机截距模型等国际主流统计方法,借鉴并改进了将同胞相关系数与多层模型相结合的机会不均等分解思路,深入分析了这一时期农村地区由家庭背景与社区环境所带来的教育机会不均等的变化趋势及内在机理,同时考察了这种教育机会分配的变动对农村地区收入获取机会不均等变动的影响。上述研究思路的主要优势在于直接考察背景因素对教育机会不均等的贡献,而非通过其对教育机会的影响来进行间接推断,本文的分析结果也验证了后者存在产生有冲突结论的缺陷。
在导论、文献综述和方法介绍三章之后,具体分析的行文安排如下：第四章考察整体教育机会不均等,及其两个组成部分(家庭效应与社区效应)各自的变化趋势；第五章对整体教育机会不均等及其变动进行静态与动态因素分解,直接分析各可观测家庭特征变量对教育机会不均等变动的贡献,同时探寻近期仍然重要的教育机会不均等因子。第六章进一步分析“完成义务教育”、“接受非义务教育”和“接受高等教育”三个层面教育机会获取不均等的变化趋势,并从可观测家庭特征变量角度间接考察各家庭背景因素对各层面教育机会不均等变动的可能影响。第七章基于青少年时期家庭背景与个人收入的匹配信息对同胞收入相关系数进行静态与动态因素分解,着重考察教育在家庭背景与个人收入之间的中介作用,以及教育分布对收入获取机会不均等变动的影响。
基于上述分析得到的经验结果,本文得到了如下几点主要结论：
(1)从现状来看,中国农村地区的整体教育机会不均等有所缓解,但分层次来看,下降趋势主要体现在义务教育阶段,中等教育机会不均等可能有所上升,而高等教育机会不均等则有大幅上升趋势。
(2)各项教育改革措施对教育机会不均等的影响不同。首先,教育扩张对较低层次教育机会均等化有正向效应,即义务教育的推广普及与高级中等教育的扩张确实对对应层面教育机会的均等化有明显促进作用,而教育费用与大学就业政策方面的教育改革则不利于义务教育的普及化以及较高层面教育机会的均等化。
(3)80后群体仍然面临着父亲职业地位、家庭收入水平、户籍、母亲受教育年限,以及社区环境所带来的教育机会不均等。其中,家庭收入水平对完成义务教育有持续增强的影响,父亲职业地位对完成义务教育与高中(中专)入学有增强的效应,户籍因素主要影响高中(中专)和大学教育机会,而母亲受教育水平显著影响各个层面教育机会的获得。
(4)农村地区的收入获取机会不均等程度在考察期间有较大幅度上升,家庭收入水平、户籍与民族影响力的增加是其中的一部分原因,但教育在当前家庭收入的代际传承或者民族间收入差距的形成中几乎不发挥作用,而户籍因素对收入获取机会的影响主要通过影响教育机会来实现。
(5)整体教育机会不均等的下降带来了教育水平分布不均等程度的下降,但教育分布对收入获取机会不均等的上升仍起促进作用,原因是这一时期教育收益的上升扩大了教育不平等对收入不平等的影响力。
(6)与其它因素不同,母亲在孩子青少年时期参与非农就业对80后群体的教育与收入获取机会均等化都有显著的正向效应,并且其对收入获取机会均等化的正向效应部分是通过影响教育机会来实现的。与对教育机会获得正向影响不同,母亲的这一行为对孩子成年后收入获取却有负向影响,可能只是因为对优势家庭孩子的不利影响更大,故有利于收入获取机会的均等化。
本文在上述研究结论基础上得到了几点政策含义,以期为进一步缩小农村地区各层次教育机会不均等,促进农村地区社会流动提供参考。
The education reform pursued by Chinese central government in1990s brought two distinctive characteristics into the education development during this period. The first was a significant increase in the societal opportunities for non-compulsive education, which was accomplished through quick and mass improvement in college enrollment and a substantial increase in the rate of high school entrance, with a most obviously sharp shift of the former from46.1%in1998to63.8%in1999. The second was the emergence of a distribution of educational opportunities which apparently not in favor of children from families disadvantaged in social and/or economic resources endowment. The cost of higher education increased quickly, and an employment system that featured "mutual choice and individual decision" was carried out on the output side, which resulted in so-called "employment difficulty" for college graduates, greatly increased the risk in the expected return from higher education for the disadvantaged groups.
This dissertation will thus try to explore the following issues:what is the dynamics of the evolution in the inequality of educational opportunities in rural China, given the context of expanding college enrollment, increasing costs of education, and higher uncertainties in expected return from education, as well as escalated social differentiation in rural areas? What are the inter-relationships between this dynamics and the implementation of above-mentioned education policies? What are the key factors in family backgrounds that are relevant to the persistency of inequality in education, such as dropping out from junior middle school, in rural areas? A further issue is, what are the impacts of this restructuring of opportunity distribution on the dynamics of income distribution in the social-differentiating rural areas?
The research presented here does not follow the traditional practices in existing literature, namely, the indirect inference of the impacts of relevant factors on the inequality in opportunities based on a regression analysis of education transition or education level. Alternatively, we adopted factor decomposition for inequality of opportunity based on sibling correlation and multilevel linear model. More specifically, I constructed a unique birth cohort dataset for post-70s and post-80s using longitudinal data from CHNS survey. Then common cohort-specific approach was used to identify the trends, based on mainstream statistical methods such as Intraclass Correlation coefficients, Multilevel Variance Component model, Multilevel Logistic Random Intercept mode, sibling correlation coefficients were combined with multilevel models to give decompositions of the inequality in opportunities, and provide an in-depth analysis into both the trends and mechanisms of the dynamics of inequality in education opportunities caused by differences in family background and neighborhood environment during this period, together with an exploration of the impacts of this dynamics on the evolution of inequalities in the income opportunities in rural areas. One of the advantages of above approach is that it enabled a direct evaluation of the contribution of background factors to the inequalities in education opportunities, rather than traditional indirect inference from its influence on education opportunity. It's worth mentioning that the results confirmed that the later approach may provide conflicting conclusions.
The dissertation goes as follows:following three chapters in introduction to the research, literature review and methodology, respectively, the fourth chapter identified the trends in overall inequality in education opportunity and its two components, namely, family effect and neighborhood effect; the fifth chapter provide both static and dynamic decomposition of the overall inequality in education opportunity and direct estimation of the contribution of observable family characteristics to this inequality and its evolution. The inequality factors which are still active till recently were also identified in this chapter. The sixth chapter brought the analysis into the dynamics of inequality for three subgroups in the sample, namely, the groups that "have finished compulsory education","have received non-compulsory education", and "have received higher education", and use family characteristics variables to offer indirect insights into the potential influences of family backgrounds on each subgroup's inequality dynamics. The seventh chapter deals with a static and dynamic factor decomposition of sibling income correlation coefficients, using the matching information of family background during childhood and personal income. The emphasis was put on the intermediate effect of education between family background and personal income, as well as the relationship between distribution of education and inequality in income opportunity.
The conclusion from empirical research can be summarized as follows:
(1) Though the overall inequality of education opportunity in rural China is alleviated during this period, the downward trends were only observed at compulsory education level. While an upward trending in middle school education may be observed, an evidenced.increase in equality has been identified for the higher education level.
(2) The impacts of various educational reform policies on inequality in education opportunity are diversified. Education expansion has a positive effect on lower level education opportunity, namely, the universal compulsory education policy and expansion in secondary education do have stimulated the equalization of relevant education opportunities. Unfortunately, the market-oriented reform in education charges and college graduates employment was found to be unfavorable for universalization of compulsory education and equalization of higher education.
(3) The post80s generation in the sample are still constrained by inequality in education opportunity caused by father's occupational status, family income, registered permanent residence, mother's education length, and neighborhood environment. Among these factors, father's occupational status has an enhancing effect on accomplishment of compulsory education and entrance rate to higher middle school (and secondary technical school), registered permanent residence can influence opportunity in higher middle school (and secondary technical school) and higher education, while mother's education has prevalent impacts on education opportunity at all levels.
(4) The inequality in income opportunity in rural areas witnessed a substantial increase during the sample period. Family income levels, registered residence and strengthening of ethical influence are part of the explanations. Education, however, has almost nothing to do with the intergenerational transmission of current family income or the formation of the income differences among various ethical groups, except for an indirect influence of registered residence on income opportunity through its impact on education opportunity.
(5) The decrease of overall inequality in education opportunity brought with it a lower inequality in the distribution of education levels, but the distribution is still a positive factor in the aggravation of inequality in income opportunity. A possible explanation is that the impact of education inequality on income inequality was consolidated by an increase in education payoffs.
(6) Whether mother gets a non-farm job when children were young has a significant positive effect on post-80s generation's equal opportunity in income and education, which is different from other factors. Other than this positive effect, mother's non-farm employment has a negative impact on children's income when they've grown up. However, since this may have a stronger negative influence on children from an advantaged family, so it in effect may improve the equality in income opportunities.
The dissertation offered several policy implications based on the above research, which should be of beneficial references to further eliminating the inequalities in education opportunity at all levels, as well as promoting social mobility in rural China.
本文要探索的问题是,在入学门槛不断降低,同时教育成本上升与预期收益不确定性增加,以及农村地区内部社会分化加剧的大背景下,中国农村内部教育机会不均等将如何变化?这种变化又与上述教育政策的实施有何内在联系?当前农村地区仍存大量教育不平等现象(如初中辍学),又与哪些家庭背景因素有关呢?一个进一步的问题是,这一时期教育机会分配结构的变动,对正逐步走向阶层分化的农村地区收入分配变动又有何影响?
与大多数研究基于对各阶段教育转换或最终受教育水平进行回归分析,并间接推断各种因素对机会不均等变动影响的思路不同,本文主要采取了基于同胞相关系数与多层线性模型的机会不均等因素分解方法。首先,在CHNS跟踪调查数据的基础上构建了70后与80后两个出生同期群的相关数据集,采用分同期群研究变动趋势的通行办法,应用组内相关系数、多层方差成分模型、多层logistic随机截距模型等国际主流统计方法,借鉴并改进了将同胞相关系数与多层模型相结合的机会不均等分解思路,深入分析了这一时期农村地区由家庭背景与社区环境所带来的教育机会不均等的变化趋势及内在机理,同时考察了这种教育机会分配的变动对农村地区收入获取机会不均等变动的影响。上述研究思路的主要优势在于直接考察背景因素对教育机会不均等的贡献,而非通过其对教育机会的影响来进行间接推断,本文的分析结果也验证了后者存在产生有冲突结论的缺陷。
在导论、文献综述和方法介绍三章之后,具体分析的行文安排如下：第四章考察整体教育机会不均等,及其两个组成部分(家庭效应与社区效应)各自的变化趋势；第五章对整体教育机会不均等及其变动进行静态与动态因素分解,直接分析各可观测家庭特征变量对教育机会不均等变动的贡献,同时探寻近期仍然重要的教育机会不均等因子。第六章进一步分析“完成义务教育”、“接受非义务教育”和“接受高等教育”三个层面教育机会获取不均等的变化趋势,并从可观测家庭特征变量角度间接考察各家庭背景因素对各层面教育机会不均等变动的可能影响。第七章基于青少年时期家庭背景与个人收入的匹配信息对同胞收入相关系数进行静态与动态因素分解,着重考察教育在家庭背景与个人收入之间的中介作用,以及教育分布对收入获取机会不均等变动的影响。
基于上述分析得到的经验结果,本文得到了如下几点主要结论：
(1)从现状来看,中国农村地区的整体教育机会不均等有所缓解,但分层次来看,下降趋势主要体现在义务教育阶段,中等教育机会不均等可能有所上升,而高等教育机会不均等则有大幅上升趋势。
(2)各项教育改革措施对教育机会不均等的影响不同。首先,教育扩张对较低层次教育机会均等化有正向效应,即义务教育的推广普及与高级中等教育的扩张确实对对应层面教育机会的均等化有明显促进作用,而教育费用与大学就业政策方面的教育改革则不利于义务教育的普及化以及较高层面教育机会的均等化。
(3)80后群体仍然面临着父亲职业地位、家庭收入水平、户籍、母亲受教育年限,以及社区环境所带来的教育机会不均等。其中,家庭收入水平对完成义务教育有持续增强的影响,父亲职业地位对完成义务教育与高中(中专)入学有增强的效应,户籍因素主要影响高中(中专)和大学教育机会,而母亲受教育水平显著影响各个层面教育机会的获得。
(4)农村地区的收入获取机会不均等程度在考察期间有较大幅度上升,家庭收入水平、户籍与民族影响力的增加是其中的一部分原因,但教育在当前家庭收入的代际传承或者民族间收入差距的形成中几乎不发挥作用,而户籍因素对收入获取机会的影响主要通过影响教育机会来实现。
(5)整体教育机会不均等的下降带来了教育水平分布不均等程度的下降,但教育分布对收入获取机会不均等的上升仍起促进作用,原因是这一时期教育收益的上升扩大了教育不平等对收入不平等的影响力。
(6)与其它因素不同,母亲在孩子青少年时期参与非农就业对80后群体的教育与收入获取机会均等化都有显著的正向效应,并且其对收入获取机会均等化的正向效应部分是通过影响教育机会来实现的。与对教育机会获得正向影响不同,母亲的这一行为对孩子成年后收入获取却有负向影响,可能只是因为对优势家庭孩子的不利影响更大,故有利于收入获取机会的均等化。
本文在上述研究结论基础上得到了几点政策含义,以期为进一步缩小农村地区各层次教育机会不均等,促进农村地区社会流动提供参考。
The education reform pursued by Chinese central government in1990s brought two distinctive characteristics into the education development during this period. The first was a significant increase in the societal opportunities for non-compulsive education, which was accomplished through quick and mass improvement in college enrollment and a substantial increase in the rate of high school entrance, with a most obviously sharp shift of the former from46.1%in1998to63.8%in1999. The second was the emergence of a distribution of educational opportunities which apparently not in favor of children from families disadvantaged in social and/or economic resources endowment. The cost of higher education increased quickly, and an employment system that featured "mutual choice and individual decision" was carried out on the output side, which resulted in so-called "employment difficulty" for college graduates, greatly increased the risk in the expected return from higher education for the disadvantaged groups.
This dissertation will thus try to explore the following issues:what is the dynamics of the evolution in the inequality of educational opportunities in rural China, given the context of expanding college enrollment, increasing costs of education, and higher uncertainties in expected return from education, as well as escalated social differentiation in rural areas? What are the inter-relationships between this dynamics and the implementation of above-mentioned education policies? What are the key factors in family backgrounds that are relevant to the persistency of inequality in education, such as dropping out from junior middle school, in rural areas? A further issue is, what are the impacts of this restructuring of opportunity distribution on the dynamics of income distribution in the social-differentiating rural areas?
The research presented here does not follow the traditional practices in existing literature, namely, the indirect inference of the impacts of relevant factors on the inequality in opportunities based on a regression analysis of education transition or education level. Alternatively, we adopted factor decomposition for inequality of opportunity based on sibling correlation and multilevel linear model. More specifically, I constructed a unique birth cohort dataset for post-70s and post-80s using longitudinal data from CHNS survey. Then common cohort-specific approach was used to identify the trends, based on mainstream statistical methods such as Intraclass Correlation coefficients, Multilevel Variance Component model, Multilevel Logistic Random Intercept mode, sibling correlation coefficients were combined with multilevel models to give decompositions of the inequality in opportunities, and provide an in-depth analysis into both the trends and mechanisms of the dynamics of inequality in education opportunities caused by differences in family background and neighborhood environment during this period, together with an exploration of the impacts of this dynamics on the evolution of inequalities in the income opportunities in rural areas. One of the advantages of above approach is that it enabled a direct evaluation of the contribution of background factors to the inequalities in education opportunities, rather than traditional indirect inference from its influence on education opportunity. It's worth mentioning that the results confirmed that the later approach may provide conflicting conclusions.
The dissertation goes as follows:following three chapters in introduction to the research, literature review and methodology, respectively, the fourth chapter identified the trends in overall inequality in education opportunity and its two components, namely, family effect and neighborhood effect; the fifth chapter provide both static and dynamic decomposition of the overall inequality in education opportunity and direct estimation of the contribution of observable family characteristics to this inequality and its evolution. The inequality factors which are still active till recently were also identified in this chapter. The sixth chapter brought the analysis into the dynamics of inequality for three subgroups in the sample, namely, the groups that "have finished compulsory education","have received non-compulsory education", and "have received higher education", and use family characteristics variables to offer indirect insights into the potential influences of family backgrounds on each subgroup's inequality dynamics. The seventh chapter deals with a static and dynamic factor decomposition of sibling income correlation coefficients, using the matching information of family background during childhood and personal income. The emphasis was put on the intermediate effect of education between family background and personal income, as well as the relationship between distribution of education and inequality in income opportunity.
The conclusion from empirical research can be summarized as follows:
(1) Though the overall inequality of education opportunity in rural China is alleviated during this period, the downward trends were only observed at compulsory education level. While an upward trending in middle school education may be observed, an evidenced.increase in equality has been identified for the higher education level.
(2) The impacts of various educational reform policies on inequality in education opportunity are diversified. Education expansion has a positive effect on lower level education opportunity, namely, the universal compulsory education policy and expansion in secondary education do have stimulated the equalization of relevant education opportunities. Unfortunately, the market-oriented reform in education charges and college graduates employment was found to be unfavorable for universalization of compulsory education and equalization of higher education.
(3) The post80s generation in the sample are still constrained by inequality in education opportunity caused by father's occupational status, family income, registered permanent residence, mother's education length, and neighborhood environment. Among these factors, father's occupational status has an enhancing effect on accomplishment of compulsory education and entrance rate to higher middle school (and secondary technical school), registered permanent residence can influence opportunity in higher middle school (and secondary technical school) and higher education, while mother's education has prevalent impacts on education opportunity at all levels.
(4) The inequality in income opportunity in rural areas witnessed a substantial increase during the sample period. Family income levels, registered residence and strengthening of ethical influence are part of the explanations. Education, however, has almost nothing to do with the intergenerational transmission of current family income or the formation of the income differences among various ethical groups, except for an indirect influence of registered residence on income opportunity through its impact on education opportunity.
(5) The decrease of overall inequality in education opportunity brought with it a lower inequality in the distribution of education levels, but the distribution is still a positive factor in the aggravation of inequality in income opportunity. A possible explanation is that the impact of education inequality on income inequality was consolidated by an increase in education payoffs.
(6) Whether mother gets a non-farm job when children were young has a significant positive effect on post-80s generation's equal opportunity in income and education, which is different from other factors. Other than this positive effect, mother's non-farm employment has a negative impact on children's income when they've grown up. However, since this may have a stronger negative influence on children from an advantaged family, so it in effect may improve the equality in income opportunities.
The dissertation offered several policy implications based on the above research, which should be of beneficial references to further eliminating the inequalities in education opportunity at all levels, as well as promoting social mobility in rural China.
引文
2 温家宝.赞成教育资金来源多样化.中国新闻网,2009-01-04.
3 国务院在2005年12月发布的《关于深化农村义务教育经费保障机制改革的通知》决定在农村地区率先开始推进免费义务教育。
4 《新京报》,2009年6月4日,A085-09版。
5 林春霞，寒门学子缘何放弃高考?《中国经济时报》,2011年8月30日,第002版。
1 顾仲阳,丁谨之,农家子弟,读书还能改变命运吗?《人民日报》(新农村周刊)，2011年8月28日,第005版。
2 李国等,上万学子放弃高考的追问,《工人日报》,2009年4月2日,第005版。
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3 国务院在2005年12月发布的《关于深化农村义务教育经费保障机制改革的通知》决定在农村地区率先开始推进免费义务教育。
4 《新京报》,2009年6月4日,A085-09版。
5 林春霞，寒门学子缘何放弃高考?《中国经济时报》,2011年8月30日,第002版。
1 顾仲阳,丁谨之,农家子弟,读书还能改变命运吗?《人民日报》(新农村周刊)，2011年8月28日,第005版。
2 李国等,上万学子放弃高考的追问,《工人日报》,2009年4月2日,第005版。
2 权衡,保障机会均等的公共政策是社会公正核心,《第一财经日报》,2007年8月17日,A07版。
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