城市化与内需主导型经济增长
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摘要
世界发达国家的经济增长典型化事实表明,城市化与经济增长二者之间存在着必然的联系,工业化的发展促进了城市化的发展,而城市化的发展又推动了经济增长。但是,我国与世界上大多数国家的现代化发展历程不同,新中国建立以后为了改变建国前工业化落后的局面,尽快建立起现代化的工业体系,实现赶超发达国家的发展目标,采取了重工业化优先发展同时抑制城市发展的战略。这就使得中国的城市化严重滞后于工业化的发展,农村大量剩余劳动力难以转移到城市劳动生产率和收入更高的非农部门,农业劳动生产率低下,影响了农民收入增长,抑制了农村居民对工业部门产品的消费需求。改革开放以后,中国利用国内外两种资源、两个市场积极引进外资,扩大对外开放,逐步形成了今天出口导向型经济增长的模式。出口导向型经济增长模式虽然极大地促进了中国经济的增长,但是也导致了中国宏观经济的内外失衡并且加剧了国际贸易摩擦。特别是在国际金融危机背景之下,来自国外市场的需求不断下滑,出口导向型的经济增长模式已经变得举步维艰,中国迫切需要回到国内需求推动经济增长的轨道上来。城市化不仅能够创造就业而且能够创造需求。城市化实质就是第一产业向第二产业和第三产业转变的过程,这一过程也是农民从低收入、低效率、劳动力过剩的农业部门转移到高收入、高效率、高就业率的工业部门、服务业部门的过程,它不仅能够带来收入的增加同时也能够带来有效需求增加和促进产品市场的扩大。截至2011年中国还有50.05%的人口生活在农村,如果达到70%的城市化率,中国至少还有近3亿的农村人口需要逐步融入到现代城市当中,这一农转非过程不仅会将城乡居民消费差距所蕴藏的潜在需求势能转化为现实有效的需求并且能够进一步通过乘数效应扩大此有效需求推动内需经济增长。因此,从城市化过程的需求增长效应和收入增长效应来看,城市化本身就构成了一种经济增长要素。抓住城市化这一内生性需求增长特征,我们就可以通过城市化有效推动非农就业的增长和国内消费、投资需求的扩大,并且通过产业结构的优化,提高产业竞争力使国民经济进入良性循环发展的轨道。
本文以城市化过程的需求增长为主线,采用理论与实证相结合的方法,对城市化推动内需经济增长的机制以及实现条件进行研究分析,并在此基础上,给出研究结论、提出城市化的战略取向以及相应的政策调整。
本文的主要研究内容如下：
第一章,首先阐明了本文的选题背景以及意义,其次,通过文献回顾,考察国内外关于城市化与经济增长关系的研究成果,然后在此基础上提出本文的研究视角以及研究方法；最后是本文研究框架、技术路线、结构安排和理论创新点。
第二章,主要是背景研究,首先对中国经济增长的典型化事实进行分析,然后提出中国出口主导型经济增长模式所遭遇到的困境与挑战,最后阐明城市化作为内需主导经济增长内在动力因素的主要原因和现实意义。
第三章,构建了一个城乡两部门模型,在该模型框架内首先研究城市化与产出的需求决定。然后在城乡需求差距基础上分析城市化的内生需求增长效应,最后利用因果关系链总结并提出城市化推动内需经济增长的理论作用机制。
第四章,在上一章城市化推动内需经济作用机制基础研究上,提出理论命题加以实证检验。首先使用灰色关联法分析城市化与经济增长互动关系,找出二者之间相互影响的主要因素。其次使用VEC模型对城市化过程中的消费需求潜力和投资需求潜力进行分析,并进行格兰杰因果检验,实证分析城市化过程中消费需求和投资需求对经济增长的具体贡献。最后,实证分析城市化过程农村劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献。
第五章,主要针对城市化推动内需经济增长的实现条件进行分析研究。出口需求、政府支出以及农民土地财产性收益是启动内需主导型经济增长的必要条件,没有出口需求、政府支出外部需求,农民就不会有城市就业的机会,农转非自然不会发生；特别是没有农民承包土地的财产性收益,农民就缺少城市安居生活的资本,城市化推动内需的机制就难以生效。
第六章,对全文的研究进行结论总结,然后提出城市化战略取向和政策调整依据和政策调整方向。最后给出本文未来进一步的研究方向。
就研究方法来说,基于经济学视野的分析方法是贯穿本文始终的主要研究方法。首先,根据我国实际存在的情况,我们将采用规范分析与实证研究相结合,突出实证研究的方法。在研究过程中,根据必要的假设,建立基本的分析模型,对城市化推动经济增长机制进行分析,这是理论创新的重要组成部分。根据本文研究的重点和难点,再利用统计、计量分析方法,进行实证研究,从而使得出的研究结论真实而可信。其次,利用实证与理论推理相结合的方法对实证研究的结果进行系统的理论思维,提出具有反映我国城市化与内需主导型经济增长的理论,并将其一般化。
本文的主要结论如下：一、出口主导型经济增长已经难以维系,中国必须走向内需经济主导之路,而城市化是推动内需经济增长的必然选择。二、城市化过程内生需求潜力使得城市化本身成为经济增长的因素。三、农转非过程可以将城乡需求势差转化为需求增长效应、收入增长效应、资本重置效应以及需求引致效应推动内需经济增长。四、城市化与经济增长存在着内生关系,城市化和经济增长组成了一个动态系统,没有城市化就不可能存在经济增长,没有经济增长也没有城市化的发展。城市化过程能够产生大量的消费需求和投资需求有效推动经济增长。农村剩余劳动力转移到城市能够提高城乡劳动力资源的劳动生产效率推动经济增长。五、农转非推动内需经济增长需要相应的外部条件才能够实现。这些外部条件包括政府需求、出口需求和资产变现需求。其中最主要的条件是农民能够获得土地财产性收益。而赋予农民土地永佃权是农转非推动内需经济增长实现的关键条件。六、城市化推动下的内需主导型经济增长有赖于户籍制度、土地制度、就业制度和社会保障制度作出相应的调整才能够实现城市化对内需经济增长的推动。
本文的主要创新在于：第一,研究视角的创新。以往的有关城市化对经济增长的研究大多侧重于城市化的集聚效应、扩散效应对经济增长的作用,而本文首次从城市化过程内在需求的角度,研究分析城市化过程所产生的消费增长效应、收入增长效应、资本重置效应以及需求引致效应四个方面对内需经济增长的贡献。第二城市经济增长理论一般着重分析城市化对劳动、技术进步以及资本等经济增长要素的影响以探索城市化对经济增长的作用,而本文从城乡居民的需求差距(需求势能)分析城市化对内需经济增长的影响机制,并首次提出城市化过程所蕴藏的内在需求潜能使得城市化本身构成了经济增长的一个要素。第三,首次将政府投资划分为城市化内生性投资需求和外生性投资需求,内生性投资需求对经济增长长期有效；外生性投资需求短期内有效而长期反过来可能阻碍内需经济增长。
The stylized facts of economic growth in the developed countries show that urbanization and economic growth are connected inevitably, as industrialization promotes the development of the unbanization, and urbanization promotes economic growth. However, different from the modernization development of the rest of the world, new-founded China implements the preferential industrialization strategy while suppressing the urbanization development in order to build a modern industrial system and overtake the developed country as soon as possible which leads to a seriously lagged Chinese urbanization after industrialization, with a large number of rural surplus labor force difficult to flow to the city where the non-agricultural sectors have greater labor productivity and higher income, while the affected overall consumption capacity hindered the domestic economic growth. After the reform and opening up, foreign investments were introduced. Export oriented economic growth mode were actively and gradually formed with the use of two resources and two markets and greatly promoted China's economic growth, but it also led to China's macroeconomic imbalances, with international trade friction aggravated. Especially in the context of the international financial crisis, foreign market demand continued to drop implying that export oriented economic growth mode is hardly sustainable and China urgently needs to return to the domestic demand-led economic growth model. Industrialization creates a supply while urbanization creates demand. Urbanization means that farmers flow from agriculture sector which has low income and low production efficiency to the non-agricultural industries with higher income and higher production efficiency. Higher income at the same time increases effective demands and expands domestic market. By2011, China had50.05%of the population living in rural. If the urbanization ratio is to reache70%in China, there are nearly300millions of the rural population to gradually migrate into the modern city. Such an urbanization process will turn the potential demand into effective demand which promotes economic growth. Therefore, from the view of demand-led growth effect, the urbanization itself constitutes a growth factor. From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, the so far lagged reform field of urbanization will surely become China's new economic growth engine. The process of urbanization can effectively promote the expansion of domestic demand and drive non-farm employment growth as well as to enhance industrial competitiveness of the national economy through the optimization of the industrial structure.
This dissertation is based on the demand growth effect of urbanization process, combined with theoretical and empirical methods to analyze the domestic demand effect and economic growth effect of urbanization and its conditions. It especially takes the analysis of the impact of farmers'land property income on the influence of urbanization and corresponding policy adjustment.
The main contents are as follows:
The first chapter expounds the background of the dissertation. Secondly, by means of literature review, it investigates the domestic and international research results of the relationship between urbanization and economy growth. The research perspective and research method of this thesis is presented. The last part of this chapter presents the research frame, with the technical route, structure arrangement and theory innovation and research deficiency.
The second chapter is the background research about the stylized facts analysis of China's economic growth, pointing out that the export oriented economic growth model is challenged by difficulties highlighting importance and realistic meaning of urbanization relative to domestic demand-led economic growth.
The third chapter builds a model of two sectors in urban and rural areas, in which demand factors of urbanization and output are anlyzed. Then based on the demand gap between urban and rural, the endogenous demand growth effect of urbanization is analyzed followed by theory mechanism analysis using the chain of causation.
The fourth chapter is based on the mechanism research of last chapter about the demand effect of urbanization. It puts forward the theory of propositions followed by the empirical test. Gray correlation analysis of the relationship between urbanization development and economic growth finds out the main influencing factors of the two. Secondly, VEC model is employed to analyze potential consumption demand and investment demand in the urbanization process with the Granger causality test pointing out the economic growth contribution of either. Final is an empirical analysis of the contribution of rural labor force flow to economic growth.
The fifth chapter is the analysis of implementation conditions for the domestic demand growth effects of urbanization. Export, government spending and the farmers' land property income are the essential conditions to start domestic demand dominated economy growth. If there are no external demand factors like export demand or government spending, farmers wouldn't have jobs in the cities. If farmers have no income from land property, the farmers lack the capital to live lives in cities and domestic demand is difficult to have effect on urbanization.
Chapter sixth, is policy analysis which propose basis and direction of policy adjustment.
Research methods are mainly based on the economic analysis throughout this paper. First of all, according to China's actual situation, we will use the normative and empirical analysis together with the focus on the latter one. In the study, based on the assumptions necessary to establish the basic model of analysis, the mechanisms of urbanization to promote economic growth is analyzed which is an important part of the theoretical innovation. According to the focus of this study with the use of statistical and economitrica methods, we draw conclusions which are more credible. Secondly, with the combination of empirical and theoretical reasoning method, the paper takes theoretical thinking on the results of empirical research, presenting a generalized theory that reflects China's urbanization and domestic demand-led economic growth.
The main innovation of this paper are asv follows:first is the innovation of research perspective. The past literature about urbanization effects on economic growth mostly focused on the effects of clustering and diffusion on economic growth, while this paper for the first time is from the point of view of demand studying the consumption growth effect, income growth effect, capital replacement effects and demand introduced effects which are four aspects of the contribution of domestic demand on economic growth. Second is the theoretical innovation of economic growth. The general theory of urban economics analyzed the impact of urbanization on economic growth elements of labor, technological progress and capital to explore the role of urbanization on economic growth, while this paper takes the perspective of urban and rural demand gap (the demand potential energy) to analyze impact and contribution of the urbanization on domestic demand-led economic growth, and for the first time put forward the point that intrinsic demand potential underlying in urbanization process makes urbanization itself element of economic growth. Third is the concept innovation, and for the first time, the government investment is divided into the endogenous investment demand and urbanization exogenous investment demand.The endogenous investment demand has effect on economy growth in long-term;The exogenous investment demand has effect on economy growth in short-term but in turn may hinder domestic demand economy growth in long-term.
本文以城市化过程的需求增长为主线,采用理论与实证相结合的方法,对城市化推动内需经济增长的机制以及实现条件进行研究分析,并在此基础上,给出研究结论、提出城市化的战略取向以及相应的政策调整。
本文的主要研究内容如下：
第一章,首先阐明了本文的选题背景以及意义,其次,通过文献回顾,考察国内外关于城市化与经济增长关系的研究成果,然后在此基础上提出本文的研究视角以及研究方法；最后是本文研究框架、技术路线、结构安排和理论创新点。
第二章,主要是背景研究,首先对中国经济增长的典型化事实进行分析,然后提出中国出口主导型经济增长模式所遭遇到的困境与挑战,最后阐明城市化作为内需主导经济增长内在动力因素的主要原因和现实意义。
第三章,构建了一个城乡两部门模型,在该模型框架内首先研究城市化与产出的需求决定。然后在城乡需求差距基础上分析城市化的内生需求增长效应,最后利用因果关系链总结并提出城市化推动内需经济增长的理论作用机制。
第四章,在上一章城市化推动内需经济作用机制基础研究上,提出理论命题加以实证检验。首先使用灰色关联法分析城市化与经济增长互动关系,找出二者之间相互影响的主要因素。其次使用VEC模型对城市化过程中的消费需求潜力和投资需求潜力进行分析,并进行格兰杰因果检验,实证分析城市化过程中消费需求和投资需求对经济增长的具体贡献。最后,实证分析城市化过程农村劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献。
第五章,主要针对城市化推动内需经济增长的实现条件进行分析研究。出口需求、政府支出以及农民土地财产性收益是启动内需主导型经济增长的必要条件,没有出口需求、政府支出外部需求,农民就不会有城市就业的机会,农转非自然不会发生；特别是没有农民承包土地的财产性收益,农民就缺少城市安居生活的资本,城市化推动内需的机制就难以生效。
第六章,对全文的研究进行结论总结,然后提出城市化战略取向和政策调整依据和政策调整方向。最后给出本文未来进一步的研究方向。
就研究方法来说,基于经济学视野的分析方法是贯穿本文始终的主要研究方法。首先,根据我国实际存在的情况,我们将采用规范分析与实证研究相结合,突出实证研究的方法。在研究过程中,根据必要的假设,建立基本的分析模型,对城市化推动经济增长机制进行分析,这是理论创新的重要组成部分。根据本文研究的重点和难点,再利用统计、计量分析方法,进行实证研究,从而使得出的研究结论真实而可信。其次,利用实证与理论推理相结合的方法对实证研究的结果进行系统的理论思维,提出具有反映我国城市化与内需主导型经济增长的理论,并将其一般化。
本文的主要结论如下：一、出口主导型经济增长已经难以维系,中国必须走向内需经济主导之路,而城市化是推动内需经济增长的必然选择。二、城市化过程内生需求潜力使得城市化本身成为经济增长的因素。三、农转非过程可以将城乡需求势差转化为需求增长效应、收入增长效应、资本重置效应以及需求引致效应推动内需经济增长。四、城市化与经济增长存在着内生关系,城市化和经济增长组成了一个动态系统,没有城市化就不可能存在经济增长,没有经济增长也没有城市化的发展。城市化过程能够产生大量的消费需求和投资需求有效推动经济增长。农村剩余劳动力转移到城市能够提高城乡劳动力资源的劳动生产效率推动经济增长。五、农转非推动内需经济增长需要相应的外部条件才能够实现。这些外部条件包括政府需求、出口需求和资产变现需求。其中最主要的条件是农民能够获得土地财产性收益。而赋予农民土地永佃权是农转非推动内需经济增长实现的关键条件。六、城市化推动下的内需主导型经济增长有赖于户籍制度、土地制度、就业制度和社会保障制度作出相应的调整才能够实现城市化对内需经济增长的推动。
本文的主要创新在于：第一,研究视角的创新。以往的有关城市化对经济增长的研究大多侧重于城市化的集聚效应、扩散效应对经济增长的作用,而本文首次从城市化过程内在需求的角度,研究分析城市化过程所产生的消费增长效应、收入增长效应、资本重置效应以及需求引致效应四个方面对内需经济增长的贡献。第二城市经济增长理论一般着重分析城市化对劳动、技术进步以及资本等经济增长要素的影响以探索城市化对经济增长的作用,而本文从城乡居民的需求差距(需求势能)分析城市化对内需经济增长的影响机制,并首次提出城市化过程所蕴藏的内在需求潜能使得城市化本身构成了经济增长的一个要素。第三,首次将政府投资划分为城市化内生性投资需求和外生性投资需求,内生性投资需求对经济增长长期有效；外生性投资需求短期内有效而长期反过来可能阻碍内需经济增长。
The stylized facts of economic growth in the developed countries show that urbanization and economic growth are connected inevitably, as industrialization promotes the development of the unbanization, and urbanization promotes economic growth. However, different from the modernization development of the rest of the world, new-founded China implements the preferential industrialization strategy while suppressing the urbanization development in order to build a modern industrial system and overtake the developed country as soon as possible which leads to a seriously lagged Chinese urbanization after industrialization, with a large number of rural surplus labor force difficult to flow to the city where the non-agricultural sectors have greater labor productivity and higher income, while the affected overall consumption capacity hindered the domestic economic growth. After the reform and opening up, foreign investments were introduced. Export oriented economic growth mode were actively and gradually formed with the use of two resources and two markets and greatly promoted China's economic growth, but it also led to China's macroeconomic imbalances, with international trade friction aggravated. Especially in the context of the international financial crisis, foreign market demand continued to drop implying that export oriented economic growth mode is hardly sustainable and China urgently needs to return to the domestic demand-led economic growth model. Industrialization creates a supply while urbanization creates demand. Urbanization means that farmers flow from agriculture sector which has low income and low production efficiency to the non-agricultural industries with higher income and higher production efficiency. Higher income at the same time increases effective demands and expands domestic market. By2011, China had50.05%of the population living in rural. If the urbanization ratio is to reache70%in China, there are nearly300millions of the rural population to gradually migrate into the modern city. Such an urbanization process will turn the potential demand into effective demand which promotes economic growth. Therefore, from the view of demand-led growth effect, the urbanization itself constitutes a growth factor. From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, the so far lagged reform field of urbanization will surely become China's new economic growth engine. The process of urbanization can effectively promote the expansion of domestic demand and drive non-farm employment growth as well as to enhance industrial competitiveness of the national economy through the optimization of the industrial structure.
This dissertation is based on the demand growth effect of urbanization process, combined with theoretical and empirical methods to analyze the domestic demand effect and economic growth effect of urbanization and its conditions. It especially takes the analysis of the impact of farmers'land property income on the influence of urbanization and corresponding policy adjustment.
The main contents are as follows:
The first chapter expounds the background of the dissertation. Secondly, by means of literature review, it investigates the domestic and international research results of the relationship between urbanization and economy growth. The research perspective and research method of this thesis is presented. The last part of this chapter presents the research frame, with the technical route, structure arrangement and theory innovation and research deficiency.
The second chapter is the background research about the stylized facts analysis of China's economic growth, pointing out that the export oriented economic growth model is challenged by difficulties highlighting importance and realistic meaning of urbanization relative to domestic demand-led economic growth.
The third chapter builds a model of two sectors in urban and rural areas, in which demand factors of urbanization and output are anlyzed. Then based on the demand gap between urban and rural, the endogenous demand growth effect of urbanization is analyzed followed by theory mechanism analysis using the chain of causation.
The fourth chapter is based on the mechanism research of last chapter about the demand effect of urbanization. It puts forward the theory of propositions followed by the empirical test. Gray correlation analysis of the relationship between urbanization development and economic growth finds out the main influencing factors of the two. Secondly, VEC model is employed to analyze potential consumption demand and investment demand in the urbanization process with the Granger causality test pointing out the economic growth contribution of either. Final is an empirical analysis of the contribution of rural labor force flow to economic growth.
The fifth chapter is the analysis of implementation conditions for the domestic demand growth effects of urbanization. Export, government spending and the farmers' land property income are the essential conditions to start domestic demand dominated economy growth. If there are no external demand factors like export demand or government spending, farmers wouldn't have jobs in the cities. If farmers have no income from land property, the farmers lack the capital to live lives in cities and domestic demand is difficult to have effect on urbanization.
Chapter sixth, is policy analysis which propose basis and direction of policy adjustment.
Research methods are mainly based on the economic analysis throughout this paper. First of all, according to China's actual situation, we will use the normative and empirical analysis together with the focus on the latter one. In the study, based on the assumptions necessary to establish the basic model of analysis, the mechanisms of urbanization to promote economic growth is analyzed which is an important part of the theoretical innovation. According to the focus of this study with the use of statistical and economitrica methods, we draw conclusions which are more credible. Secondly, with the combination of empirical and theoretical reasoning method, the paper takes theoretical thinking on the results of empirical research, presenting a generalized theory that reflects China's urbanization and domestic demand-led economic growth.
The main innovation of this paper are asv follows:first is the innovation of research perspective. The past literature about urbanization effects on economic growth mostly focused on the effects of clustering and diffusion on economic growth, while this paper for the first time is from the point of view of demand studying the consumption growth effect, income growth effect, capital replacement effects and demand introduced effects which are four aspects of the contribution of domestic demand on economic growth. Second is the theoretical innovation of economic growth. The general theory of urban economics analyzed the impact of urbanization on economic growth elements of labor, technological progress and capital to explore the role of urbanization on economic growth, while this paper takes the perspective of urban and rural demand gap (the demand potential energy) to analyze impact and contribution of the urbanization on domestic demand-led economic growth, and for the first time put forward the point that intrinsic demand potential underlying in urbanization process makes urbanization itself element of economic growth. Third is the concept innovation, and for the first time, the government investment is divided into the endogenous investment demand and urbanization exogenous investment demand.The endogenous investment demand has effect on economy growth in long-term;The exogenous investment demand has effect on economy growth in short-term but in turn may hinder domestic demand economy growth in long-term.
引文
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