基于协同效应的并购目标企业选择研究
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摘要
并购是指市场机制作用下企业为了获得其它企业的控制权而进行的产权交易活动。并购是企业扩张的有效手段,也是资源优化配置的重要途径。然而实践中50%以上的并购以失败告终,其中目标企业选择错误通常是并购面临失败的首要原因。目前,尽管研究企业并购的文献很多,但多数集中于已知目标对象后的评价分析,对如何确定备选目标、如何从这些备选目标中筛选确定目标企业以及如何实现最大并购效益方面,缺乏系统的理论和方法步骤。表现为:在研究内容上,如何在目标企业选择的各个阶段考虑价值的增值活动,缺乏协同效应理论的指导;在研究方法上,最优搜寻理论、博弈理论、集对分析理论等分析方法在目前的并购研究中还很少使用。由于这些原因导致不能在理论上和实践上指导并购企业选择合适的目标企业进行并购,从而降低了并购成功率。因此,选择合适的目标企业,从而提高并购成功率,对并购企业具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。
本论文的总体目标是站在并购企业的角度,从并购企业的发展战略出发,为其选择目标企业提供并购前的判断和指导。研究的内容是目标企业选择的核心问题,即基于协同效应的目标企业搜寻、目标企业的识别与评价及并购双方的博弈定价。论文的主要研究内容如下:
1.建立基于协同效应理论的目标企业选择分析框架。首先对目前并购动机理论进行评价,分析协同效应理论与其他并购动机理论的内在联系;然后对管理协同效应、经营协同效应和财务协同效应的产生机理进行研究,并对协同效应在并购价值创造中的功能进行分析;在此基础上,研究协同效应与目标企业选择的关系,建立基于协同效应的目标企业选择分析框架。
2.对目标企业搜寻进行系统研究。分析了目标企业的信息搜寻内容和搜寻途径,利用信息经济学原理对目标企业的可识别性进行分析,归纳目标企业的一般财务特征,给出影响目标企业信息搜寻的外部搜寻环境和内部搜寻能力影响因素;运用最优搜寻理论中固定样本搜寻方法,构建了以协同效应最大化为目标的目标企业搜寻模型,给出了目标企业最佳搜寻次数的计算方法,并对模型中解的存在性和搜寻的约束条件进行分析。
3.根据管理协同效应、经营协同效应、财务协同效应的产生机理分别给出不同的识别方法,即用凯次模型识别管理协同效应、用价值链模型识别经营协同效应和用波士顿矩阵识别财务协同效应;在分析并购双方协同效应构成的基础上,建立了基于协同效应的目标企业综合评价指标体系。并运用集对分析理论中同一度的思想分析双方资源的协同程度,对目标企业进行多层次综合评价。
4.运用博弈理论研究并购双方谈判思路及定价策略,就定价权属于目标企业及并购企业两种情况,分别推导出了贝叶斯纳什均衡下的最优判断和策略组合;在此基础上,分析了定价权对并购双方收益的影响,给出了并购企业基于定价权的谈判策略。
5.案例研究。将本文提出的主要理论与方法应用于太极集团并购西南药业的典型案例,重点应用第5章建立的基于定价权的博弈谈判模型,对西南药业的两次要价和太极集团拒绝第一次要价和接受第二次要价的原因进行解释,分析了双方在定价中的谈判策略,初步验证了论文中所提出的理论和方法的有效性。
本文的研究为并购企业正确选择目标企业、保证并购成功提供了理论基础和实践支持。
M&A (merger and acquisition) is a deal form of property rights which purpose is to obtain other enterprise’control rights in market environment. M&A is an efficient form of outstretching enterprise’s scale and an important means of reallocating social resources. But there are over 50% M&A activities are failure in practice and the chief reasons are selecting target firms incorrectly. Up to now, though there are a lot of literatures on M&A, but most of of them are about target firms’evaluation after being purchased.There aren’t systematic theories and methods on how to select target firms, how to screen target firms and how to realize the most M&A’s gains. On researching contents , the present literatures haven’t been directed by synergistic effects theory in all stages of selecting target firms on how to analyze M&A’value-added; On researching methods, optimal search theory, game theory and Set Pair Analysis theory have just been applied in present M&A’research. The above reasons result in lacking theoretic and practical directions of selecting target firms and reduce the successful ratio of M&A activities. For this reason, selecting correct target firms and improving successful ratio of M&A activities have theoretic and practical significance.
The purpose of the dissertation is to provide judgement and direction for the buyer before M&A deals in terms of the buyer’s development strategy. The dissertation’contents are about core problems of selecting target firms, that is, how to search target firms, identify and evaluate target firms and price with target firms based on synergistic effects theory. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Establishes target firms selecting framework based on synergistic effects. First, this dissertation sums up present M&A motives theory and analyses the inherent relationship between synergistic effects theory and other theories of M&A motives; After that, this dissertation researches occurrence mechanism of management synergistic effects, operating synergistic effects and financial synergistic effects,and analyzes synergistic effects’function in creating M&A value; On base of these, this dissertation researches the relationships between synergistic effects and target firms selecting and establishes target firms selecting framework based on synergistic effects.
2. Researches target firms’search systematically. This dissertation analyzes the contents and ways of searching target firms, studies the distinguishable characteristics of target firms on the basis of information economics principles and concludes financial characteristics of target firms. After that, this dissertation gives affecting factors of external searching environment and internal searching capacities;At last , the dissertation establishes a model of searching target firms to decide the best searching times based on fixed samples method of optimal searching theory in order to get the most synergistic effects and analyses exsistence of the model’solution and searching restraints.
3. Gives identifying methods of management synergistic effects, operating synergistic effects and financial synergistic effects according to their occurrence mechanism. That is, identifying management synergistic effects by Katzs model, identifying operating synergistic effects by value chain model and identifying financial synergistic effects by Boston Matrix; After analyzing components of synergistic effects ,the dissertation establishes a new index system of evaluating target firm based on synergistic effects. This dissertation analyzes the synergistic degree with the unity thoughts of Set Pair Analysis theory and evaluates target firms from multi- hierarchy.
4. Gives the negotiation ideas of both sides and the pricing tactics by building the game theory model. The optimal judgments and tactics combinations were given on Bayesian Nash Equilibrium when the pricing right was in different negotiator’s hands. On the basis of above, the effects of pricing right to the M&A income of both sides were studied and negotiation tactics based on pricing right were given for buyer.
5. Case study. The main theories and methods put forward by this dissertation are applied in the typical case of Tai Ji Group buying South-west Pharmacy, especially the game theory model based on pricing right established by chapter 5. The model explains two quoted prices given by South-west Pharmacy, and explains the reasons why Tai Ji Group refused the first quoted price and accepted the second quoted price. This dissertation also analyzes the negotiation tactics of both sides. The case proves the effectiveness of theories and methods put forward by this dissertation.
This dissertation provides theory bases and practical supports to select correct target firms and improve successful ratio of M&A activities .
本论文的总体目标是站在并购企业的角度,从并购企业的发展战略出发,为其选择目标企业提供并购前的判断和指导。研究的内容是目标企业选择的核心问题,即基于协同效应的目标企业搜寻、目标企业的识别与评价及并购双方的博弈定价。论文的主要研究内容如下:
1.建立基于协同效应理论的目标企业选择分析框架。首先对目前并购动机理论进行评价,分析协同效应理论与其他并购动机理论的内在联系;然后对管理协同效应、经营协同效应和财务协同效应的产生机理进行研究,并对协同效应在并购价值创造中的功能进行分析;在此基础上,研究协同效应与目标企业选择的关系,建立基于协同效应的目标企业选择分析框架。
2.对目标企业搜寻进行系统研究。分析了目标企业的信息搜寻内容和搜寻途径,利用信息经济学原理对目标企业的可识别性进行分析,归纳目标企业的一般财务特征,给出影响目标企业信息搜寻的外部搜寻环境和内部搜寻能力影响因素;运用最优搜寻理论中固定样本搜寻方法,构建了以协同效应最大化为目标的目标企业搜寻模型,给出了目标企业最佳搜寻次数的计算方法,并对模型中解的存在性和搜寻的约束条件进行分析。
3.根据管理协同效应、经营协同效应、财务协同效应的产生机理分别给出不同的识别方法,即用凯次模型识别管理协同效应、用价值链模型识别经营协同效应和用波士顿矩阵识别财务协同效应;在分析并购双方协同效应构成的基础上,建立了基于协同效应的目标企业综合评价指标体系。并运用集对分析理论中同一度的思想分析双方资源的协同程度,对目标企业进行多层次综合评价。
4.运用博弈理论研究并购双方谈判思路及定价策略,就定价权属于目标企业及并购企业两种情况,分别推导出了贝叶斯纳什均衡下的最优判断和策略组合;在此基础上,分析了定价权对并购双方收益的影响,给出了并购企业基于定价权的谈判策略。
5.案例研究。将本文提出的主要理论与方法应用于太极集团并购西南药业的典型案例,重点应用第5章建立的基于定价权的博弈谈判模型,对西南药业的两次要价和太极集团拒绝第一次要价和接受第二次要价的原因进行解释,分析了双方在定价中的谈判策略,初步验证了论文中所提出的理论和方法的有效性。
本文的研究为并购企业正确选择目标企业、保证并购成功提供了理论基础和实践支持。
M&A (merger and acquisition) is a deal form of property rights which purpose is to obtain other enterprise’control rights in market environment. M&A is an efficient form of outstretching enterprise’s scale and an important means of reallocating social resources. But there are over 50% M&A activities are failure in practice and the chief reasons are selecting target firms incorrectly. Up to now, though there are a lot of literatures on M&A, but most of of them are about target firms’evaluation after being purchased.There aren’t systematic theories and methods on how to select target firms, how to screen target firms and how to realize the most M&A’s gains. On researching contents , the present literatures haven’t been directed by synergistic effects theory in all stages of selecting target firms on how to analyze M&A’value-added; On researching methods, optimal search theory, game theory and Set Pair Analysis theory have just been applied in present M&A’research. The above reasons result in lacking theoretic and practical directions of selecting target firms and reduce the successful ratio of M&A activities. For this reason, selecting correct target firms and improving successful ratio of M&A activities have theoretic and practical significance.
The purpose of the dissertation is to provide judgement and direction for the buyer before M&A deals in terms of the buyer’s development strategy. The dissertation’contents are about core problems of selecting target firms, that is, how to search target firms, identify and evaluate target firms and price with target firms based on synergistic effects theory. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Establishes target firms selecting framework based on synergistic effects. First, this dissertation sums up present M&A motives theory and analyses the inherent relationship between synergistic effects theory and other theories of M&A motives; After that, this dissertation researches occurrence mechanism of management synergistic effects, operating synergistic effects and financial synergistic effects,and analyzes synergistic effects’function in creating M&A value; On base of these, this dissertation researches the relationships between synergistic effects and target firms selecting and establishes target firms selecting framework based on synergistic effects.
2. Researches target firms’search systematically. This dissertation analyzes the contents and ways of searching target firms, studies the distinguishable characteristics of target firms on the basis of information economics principles and concludes financial characteristics of target firms. After that, this dissertation gives affecting factors of external searching environment and internal searching capacities;At last , the dissertation establishes a model of searching target firms to decide the best searching times based on fixed samples method of optimal searching theory in order to get the most synergistic effects and analyses exsistence of the model’solution and searching restraints.
3. Gives identifying methods of management synergistic effects, operating synergistic effects and financial synergistic effects according to their occurrence mechanism. That is, identifying management synergistic effects by Katzs model, identifying operating synergistic effects by value chain model and identifying financial synergistic effects by Boston Matrix; After analyzing components of synergistic effects ,the dissertation establishes a new index system of evaluating target firm based on synergistic effects. This dissertation analyzes the synergistic degree with the unity thoughts of Set Pair Analysis theory and evaluates target firms from multi- hierarchy.
4. Gives the negotiation ideas of both sides and the pricing tactics by building the game theory model. The optimal judgments and tactics combinations were given on Bayesian Nash Equilibrium when the pricing right was in different negotiator’s hands. On the basis of above, the effects of pricing right to the M&A income of both sides were studied and negotiation tactics based on pricing right were given for buyer.
5. Case study. The main theories and methods put forward by this dissertation are applied in the typical case of Tai Ji Group buying South-west Pharmacy, especially the game theory model based on pricing right established by chapter 5. The model explains two quoted prices given by South-west Pharmacy, and explains the reasons why Tai Ji Group refused the first quoted price and accepted the second quoted price. This dissertation also analyzes the negotiation tactics of both sides. The case proves the effectiveness of theories and methods put forward by this dissertation.
This dissertation provides theory bases and practical supports to select correct target firms and improve successful ratio of M&A activities .
引文
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