北京市建筑工程勘察设计招投标市场监管体系研究及设计行业资信评级模型建立
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摘要
本论文主要分析了北京市建筑工程勘察设计招投标市场的发展状况及其监管情况,提出该市场存在的问题,并根据国内外勘察设计招投标市场的监管经验提出完善北京市勘察设计招投标市场监管体系的建议,建立了北京市设计行业资信评级模型。
本论文是采用层次分析法(AHP法)建立资信评级模型,它是把模型选取的指标分为四个准则层,再将准则层内的指标赋予标度,对相关指标进行定量计算,确定出每一层次所有指标的权重,最后通过计算综合评价值获得设计企业资信度。本模型中所考量的是设计单位的民用建筑设计实力,其它专项设计能力不予考虑。
通过对模型进行实例计算,可以得出以下结论:在层次分析法建立的资信评级模型当中,当设计企业的子准则层的各指标的标度处于一个较小变化的范围内,其权重分配比较均匀,计算得到的资信度应该在指标标度的范围内;当设计企业某些指标的标度较低时,这些指标对应的权重会比较大,对企业的资信度也会有较大的影响,企业的资信度较低。用层次分析法对设计企业进行资信度评价时,该方法对所有评价指标考虑都比较周详,特别是弱项指标,往往会将其影响放大,标度高的准则层和子准则层指标对应的权重较小,标度低的准则层和子准则层指标对应的权重较大。因此,该方法对设计企业的工作能力要求比较全面,只有当设计企业的所有指标的标度都很高时,设计企业才会得到较高的资信度。
This paper mainly analyzes the development and management of Beijing construction reconnaissance and design bidding market, poses the problems in this market, puts forward the suggestion which could perfect the management system of Beijing construction reconnaissance and design bidding market by the management experience from home and abroad construction bidding marker, and sets up the Beijing design industry credit rating model.
The model in this paper is founded by application the Analytical Hierarchy Process method (AHP), which divides the index system into four criterion layers, endues the marks for indexes, figures out the weights of all the indexes by calculating the relative indexes marks, calculates the integrate evaluation value and gets the credit rating finally. This credit rating system give priority to the civil construction design industry, which is not for the other expect design capacities.
By calculating the model, the conclusions are listed as follow: in the model founded by AHP, the weights of all indexes are disturbed equably as the mark of each index is in the small changing range. The credit rating mark of design industry would be low, if some of it indexes marks are in the low range, which weight will be significant, is influenced a lot by these indexes. This model considers every index carefully, especially the index which has the low mark usually has the significant weight; the weight will be higher if the mark of the index in the criterion layer or sub-criterion layer is lower while the higher mark index gets the lower weight. Therefore, the only way for the design enterprise getting the high credit level is to try its best to make its competences developing comprehensively which could make the mark of estimated index higher.
本论文是采用层次分析法(AHP法)建立资信评级模型,它是把模型选取的指标分为四个准则层,再将准则层内的指标赋予标度,对相关指标进行定量计算,确定出每一层次所有指标的权重,最后通过计算综合评价值获得设计企业资信度。本模型中所考量的是设计单位的民用建筑设计实力,其它专项设计能力不予考虑。
通过对模型进行实例计算,可以得出以下结论:在层次分析法建立的资信评级模型当中,当设计企业的子准则层的各指标的标度处于一个较小变化的范围内,其权重分配比较均匀,计算得到的资信度应该在指标标度的范围内;当设计企业某些指标的标度较低时,这些指标对应的权重会比较大,对企业的资信度也会有较大的影响,企业的资信度较低。用层次分析法对设计企业进行资信度评价时,该方法对所有评价指标考虑都比较周详,特别是弱项指标,往往会将其影响放大,标度高的准则层和子准则层指标对应的权重较小,标度低的准则层和子准则层指标对应的权重较大。因此,该方法对设计企业的工作能力要求比较全面,只有当设计企业的所有指标的标度都很高时,设计企业才会得到较高的资信度。
This paper mainly analyzes the development and management of Beijing construction reconnaissance and design bidding market, poses the problems in this market, puts forward the suggestion which could perfect the management system of Beijing construction reconnaissance and design bidding market by the management experience from home and abroad construction bidding marker, and sets up the Beijing design industry credit rating model.
The model in this paper is founded by application the Analytical Hierarchy Process method (AHP), which divides the index system into four criterion layers, endues the marks for indexes, figures out the weights of all the indexes by calculating the relative indexes marks, calculates the integrate evaluation value and gets the credit rating finally. This credit rating system give priority to the civil construction design industry, which is not for the other expect design capacities.
By calculating the model, the conclusions are listed as follow: in the model founded by AHP, the weights of all indexes are disturbed equably as the mark of each index is in the small changing range. The credit rating mark of design industry would be low, if some of it indexes marks are in the low range, which weight will be significant, is influenced a lot by these indexes. This model considers every index carefully, especially the index which has the low mark usually has the significant weight; the weight will be higher if the mark of the index in the criterion layer or sub-criterion layer is lower while the higher mark index gets the lower weight. Therefore, the only way for the design enterprise getting the high credit level is to try its best to make its competences developing comprehensively which could make the mark of estimated index higher.
引文
[1] 2004 年全国勘察设计咨询行业概况[J].中国有色建设,2005,3:18-21.
[2] 王宁,全河.关于江苏、上海和安徽信用体系建设情况的调研报告[J].建筑经济,2005,274(7):5-11.
[3] 王宁.加强信用体系建设,规范建筑市场秩序提高监管服务水平,促进行业健康发展—在全国建筑市场信用体系建设研讨会上的讲话.中华人民共和国建设部网站(www. cin. gov. en).
[4] 王宁,全河.关于江苏、上海、安徽信用体系建设情况的调研报告[J].建筑经济,2005,45(3):16-18.
[5] 王玉娥,叶莉,郭继明.工业企业信用评价方法研究[J].河北工业大学学报,2004,33(6):21-26.
[6] 王进.建设企业信用评价体系必须把握好几个关系[J].浙江经济,2002,3:21-23.
[7] 王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999:12-121.
[8] 石新武.资信评估的理论和方法[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2002:8-56.
[9] 企业征信的等级含义和基本原则.信用中国网(www. creditcn. com).
[10] 刘继忠.资信评估概论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1994:2-78.
[11] 孙继德.建设工程的价值工程[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004:104-147.
[12] 曲春慧硕士论文.建筑企业信用评价研究.浙江大学,2006.
[13] 朱顺泉.企业资信评级方法创新及应用[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002:14-78.
[14] 串标:工程招投标的难言之痛.中国搜房网(news. soufun. com).
[15] 吴金星,王宗军.基于层次分析法的企业信用评价方法研究[J].华中科技大学学报,2004,32(3):21-23.
[16] 吴金星 , 王宗军 . 基于层次分析法的企业信用评价方法研究 [J]. 华中科技大学学报,2004,32(3):17-20.
[17] 吴晶妹.资信评估.北京:中国审计出版社[M],2001:23-170.
[18] 吴慧娟副司长在勘察设计处长座谈会上的讲话[J].领导讲话,2005,10(1):57.
[19] 宋新建,魏强.谈建筑领域中的“挂靠”[J].河南省情与统计,2001,(4):46-50.
[20] 杨军,王现成.西方银行微观经济学的新发展[J].金融参考,2003,74(5):9-13.
[21] 杨军.银行信用风险——理论、模型和实证分析[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:179-211.
[22] 杨建龙.国际建筑业的现状与趋势分析.中国工程项目管理网(www. cpmchina. com).
[23] 邹建平.信用评级学[M].中国金融出版社,1994:154-216.
[24] 陈元燮.建立信用评级指标体系的几个理论问题[J].财经问题研究,2002,8 (3):27-31.
[25] 陈玉恒.工程勘察设计单位体制改革中的两个问题[J].中国建设信息,2002,2(7):58—63.
[26] 国务院国资委统计评价局.二零零五年企业绩效评价标准值[J].经济科学出版社,2005,1(4) :2-5.
[27] 国家经贸委财金司、国家统计局工交司.工业企业综合评价指标体系[M].中国经济出版社,1996:16-81.
[28] 建筑安装业企业资信评级.鹏元资信评估有限公司主页(www.scrc.com.cn).
[29] 林汉川,夏敏仁.企业信用评级理论与实务[M].对外经济贸易大学出版社,2003:45-101.
[30] 林钧跃.企业信用管理[M]. 北京:中国方正出版社出版,2001:147-189.
[31] 姜增彬,朱向红.未来我国勘察设计市场分析[J]. 南方金属,2003,130(2):16-18.
[32] 徐晋,李瑞海,廖刚.风险企业信用等级评估及其灰色关联模型[J].湖南大学学报,2004,31(3):10-16.
[33] 秦强,刘雪荣.主成分分析法在企业偿债能力评价中的应用[J].山东工商学院学报,2005,19(1):21.
[34] 郭敏华.信用评级[M].中国人民大学出版社,2003:26-87.
[35] 高杰硕士论文.沪深两市上市公司信用风险评估的实证研究.西安交通大学,20040301.
[36] 银通投资咨询公司编.中国企业信用评级指南[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2002:231-263.
[37] 沈小克.澳大利亚勘察设计单位考察情况(I)[J].岩土工程界第七卷,2006,5(4):16—19.
[38] 沈小克.澳大利亚勘察设计单位考察情况(II)[J].岩土工程界第七卷,2006,6(5):5—9.
[39] Zan Huang, Hsinchun Chen, Chia-Jung Hsu, Wun-Hwa Chen, Soushan Wu. In: Credit rating analysis with support vector machines and neural networks: a market comparative study [J].Decision Support Systems, 37(2004)543-558.
[40] Jens Grunert, Lars Norden, Martin Weber. In: The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,29(2005)509-531.
[41] Crouhy Michel, Galai Dan, Mark Robert. In: Prototype risk rating system[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,25(2001)47-95.
[42] Reem Heakal. In: What Is A Corporate Credit Rating[J].www. investopedia. Com.
[43] William F. Treacy, Mark S. Carey. In: Credit Risk Rating at Large U.S. Banks[J]. www.federalreserve.gov.
[44] Manzoni Katiuscia. In: Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability [J].International Review of Financial Analysis, 13(2004)227-300.
[45] Altman, Edward I. An Emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds[J].Emerging Markets Review, 6(2005)311-323.
[46] Jorion Philippe, Liu Zhu, Shi Charles. In: Informational effects of regulation FD: evidence from rating agencies [J].Journal of Financial Economics, 76(2005)309-330.
[47] Jagtiani.Julapa, Lemicux.catharine. In: Market discipline prior to bank failure[J].Journal of Economics and Business,53(2001)313-324.
[48] Poon. Winnie P. H. In: Are unsolicited credit ratings biased downward[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,27(2003)593-614.
[49] Loffler, Gunter. In: Avoiding the rating bounce: why rating agencies are slow to react to new information[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 56(2005)365-381.
[50] Chen Wun-Hwa, Shih. Jen-Ying. In: A study of Taiwan' s issuer credit rating systems using support vector machines[J].Expert Systems With App1ications, 30 (2005) 427-435
[2] 王宁,全河.关于江苏、上海和安徽信用体系建设情况的调研报告[J].建筑经济,2005,274(7):5-11.
[3] 王宁.加强信用体系建设,规范建筑市场秩序提高监管服务水平,促进行业健康发展—在全国建筑市场信用体系建设研讨会上的讲话.中华人民共和国建设部网站(www. cin. gov. en).
[4] 王宁,全河.关于江苏、上海、安徽信用体系建设情况的调研报告[J].建筑经济,2005,45(3):16-18.
[5] 王玉娥,叶莉,郭继明.工业企业信用评价方法研究[J].河北工业大学学报,2004,33(6):21-26.
[6] 王进.建设企业信用评价体系必须把握好几个关系[J].浙江经济,2002,3:21-23.
[7] 王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999:12-121.
[8] 石新武.资信评估的理论和方法[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2002:8-56.
[9] 企业征信的等级含义和基本原则.信用中国网(www. creditcn. com).
[10] 刘继忠.资信评估概论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1994:2-78.
[11] 孙继德.建设工程的价值工程[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004:104-147.
[12] 曲春慧硕士论文.建筑企业信用评价研究.浙江大学,2006.
[13] 朱顺泉.企业资信评级方法创新及应用[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002:14-78.
[14] 串标:工程招投标的难言之痛.中国搜房网(news. soufun. com).
[15] 吴金星,王宗军.基于层次分析法的企业信用评价方法研究[J].华中科技大学学报,2004,32(3):21-23.
[16] 吴金星 , 王宗军 . 基于层次分析法的企业信用评价方法研究 [J]. 华中科技大学学报,2004,32(3):17-20.
[17] 吴晶妹.资信评估.北京:中国审计出版社[M],2001:23-170.
[18] 吴慧娟副司长在勘察设计处长座谈会上的讲话[J].领导讲话,2005,10(1):57.
[19] 宋新建,魏强.谈建筑领域中的“挂靠”[J].河南省情与统计,2001,(4):46-50.
[20] 杨军,王现成.西方银行微观经济学的新发展[J].金融参考,2003,74(5):9-13.
[21] 杨军.银行信用风险——理论、模型和实证分析[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:179-211.
[22] 杨建龙.国际建筑业的现状与趋势分析.中国工程项目管理网(www. cpmchina. com).
[23] 邹建平.信用评级学[M].中国金融出版社,1994:154-216.
[24] 陈元燮.建立信用评级指标体系的几个理论问题[J].财经问题研究,2002,8 (3):27-31.
[25] 陈玉恒.工程勘察设计单位体制改革中的两个问题[J].中国建设信息,2002,2(7):58—63.
[26] 国务院国资委统计评价局.二零零五年企业绩效评价标准值[J].经济科学出版社,2005,1(4) :2-5.
[27] 国家经贸委财金司、国家统计局工交司.工业企业综合评价指标体系[M].中国经济出版社,1996:16-81.
[28] 建筑安装业企业资信评级.鹏元资信评估有限公司主页(www.scrc.com.cn).
[29] 林汉川,夏敏仁.企业信用评级理论与实务[M].对外经济贸易大学出版社,2003:45-101.
[30] 林钧跃.企业信用管理[M]. 北京:中国方正出版社出版,2001:147-189.
[31] 姜增彬,朱向红.未来我国勘察设计市场分析[J]. 南方金属,2003,130(2):16-18.
[32] 徐晋,李瑞海,廖刚.风险企业信用等级评估及其灰色关联模型[J].湖南大学学报,2004,31(3):10-16.
[33] 秦强,刘雪荣.主成分分析法在企业偿债能力评价中的应用[J].山东工商学院学报,2005,19(1):21.
[34] 郭敏华.信用评级[M].中国人民大学出版社,2003:26-87.
[35] 高杰硕士论文.沪深两市上市公司信用风险评估的实证研究.西安交通大学,20040301.
[36] 银通投资咨询公司编.中国企业信用评级指南[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2002:231-263.
[37] 沈小克.澳大利亚勘察设计单位考察情况(I)[J].岩土工程界第七卷,2006,5(4):16—19.
[38] 沈小克.澳大利亚勘察设计单位考察情况(II)[J].岩土工程界第七卷,2006,6(5):5—9.
[39] Zan Huang, Hsinchun Chen, Chia-Jung Hsu, Wun-Hwa Chen, Soushan Wu. In: Credit rating analysis with support vector machines and neural networks: a market comparative study [J].Decision Support Systems, 37(2004)543-558.
[40] Jens Grunert, Lars Norden, Martin Weber. In: The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,29(2005)509-531.
[41] Crouhy Michel, Galai Dan, Mark Robert. In: Prototype risk rating system[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,25(2001)47-95.
[42] Reem Heakal. In: What Is A Corporate Credit Rating[J].www. investopedia. Com.
[43] William F. Treacy, Mark S. Carey. In: Credit Risk Rating at Large U.S. Banks[J]. www.federalreserve.gov.
[44] Manzoni Katiuscia. In: Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability [J].International Review of Financial Analysis, 13(2004)227-300.
[45] Altman, Edward I. An Emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds[J].Emerging Markets Review, 6(2005)311-323.
[46] Jorion Philippe, Liu Zhu, Shi Charles. In: Informational effects of regulation FD: evidence from rating agencies [J].Journal of Financial Economics, 76(2005)309-330.
[47] Jagtiani.Julapa, Lemicux.catharine. In: Market discipline prior to bank failure[J].Journal of Economics and Business,53(2001)313-324.
[48] Poon. Winnie P. H. In: Are unsolicited credit ratings biased downward[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,27(2003)593-614.
[49] Loffler, Gunter. In: Avoiding the rating bounce: why rating agencies are slow to react to new information[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 56(2005)365-381.
[50] Chen Wun-Hwa, Shih. Jen-Ying. In: A study of Taiwan' s issuer credit rating systems using support vector machines[J].Expert Systems With App1ications, 30 (2005) 427-435