陆桥运输的经济作用及相关政策研究
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摘要
新亚欧大陆桥横跨我国东、中、西三大经济带，它作为沿桥十省区经济发展的动脉和基础，是联系沿桥地区原材料、能源、生产、消费市场的纽带和桥梁，在沿桥经济发展中具有不可替代的作用。世纪之交，随着党中央关于西部大开发战略的制定和实施，我国政府明确提出了西北部大开发要依托亚欧大陆桥交通干线这一大通道，发挥中心城市的作用，以点带面，有重点地推进西北部大开发等重大决策。当前，在西部大开发深入展开之际，本文从定量的角度验证陆桥运输的经济作用，检验西部大开发的“点——轴开发模式”经济理论的可靠性和可行性，为各级政府和企业的经济决策提供数量化建议，更有利于为交通部门及经贸部门在做具体决策、预测时提供数量化方面的依据。本文的又一重点是研究陆桥运输发展的相关政策，提出促进陆桥经济发展的政策建议。这对于充实和完善西部大开发战略与政策规划，促进全国区域经济的协调发展具有一定的现实意义。本文共分四章，其中第三章和第四章是论文的主体部分。
论文各章节的内容安排如下：
第一章从理论上阐述了陆桥运输对于陆桥经济发展的关键性作用。
第二章对陆桥经济带的客观情况进行了详尽的分析，论述陆桥经济带在我国区域经济发展的总体格局中具有重要的战略优势和地位。
第三章从定量的角度验证陆桥运输与陆桥经济发展的关系。选择代表陆桥运输和沿桥经济的五个指标，运用最新的时间序列分析方法，利用经济数据构造和建立经济计量模型。首先采用近几年很流行的单位根检验方法检验各个指标时序的平稳性，然后建立指标间的相关关系，运用协整理论去分析这种相关关系是否构成协整关系(即长期动态均衡关系)，接着利用国外经济分析中常用的格兰杰因果检验研究陆桥运输与沿桥经济是如何相互促进、相互引导的，最后根据所得到的模型结果，进行了综合评价。文中大部分的统计建模运算是由软件EXCEL及SPSS完成的。
第四章首先分析当前世界经济及亚欧区域经济发展的新形势，指出新亚欧大陆桥的发展面临着良好的外部环境；接着重点探讨了陆桥运输的相关政策，笔者根据国家计委关于新亚欧大陆桥运输发展的战略目标及相关原则，提出了推动陆桥运输发展战略目标实现的措施；最后强调进行陆桥经济带开发需要一系列产业、财政、税收、金融、生态环境、体制创新等方面特殊政策的支持，围绕这些方面提出了一系列的政策建议。
New Eurasia Continental Bridge is stretching over three great economic regions in China's eastern, central and western parts. As the artery and basis for economic growth of 10 provinces along the Continental Bridge, NECB links up raw materials market, energy sources market, manufacturing market and consumptive market. It also plays an indispensable role in driving the economy development along the economic belt. At the turn of the century, with the third generation of China's leadership putting forward the 'strategy for the grand-scale development of China's western region', our government has clarified important policies on pushing forward the great development of north-western China through giving full play to the role of selected central cities and on the support of this land bridge communication artery. Today, at the time of the strategy for the grand-scale being implemented, this paper primarily tests the relationship between Continental Bridge transportation and its economy through quantitative analysi
s, which can proof the dependability and feasibility of the 'point-line' development theory. It also can provide some quantitative advice for all grades of states government and enterprises, especially for the transportation and commercial branches to make decision and to take forecast. Another emphasis of this article is to study and explore strategy and policies of Continental Bridge transportation development as well as policy proposals for promoting the economic growth of the whole region, which has realistic meaning to substantiate the grand-scale development of China's western region and to promote the coordinated development of China's regional economics. The whole article is divided into four chapters, Chapter three and Chapter four being made the main body thereof.
The contents of this paper are listed as follows:
The first chapter illustrates the crucial role of transportation played in driving the economy of the regions along the Continental Bridge to grow.
The second chapter analyzes the objective conditions of the economic belt along Continental Bridge in detail, then disserts that there is an important strategic advantage and position of this economic belt in China's regional economy development.
The third chapter tests the relationship between Continental Bridge transportation and its economy through quantitative analysis. Selecting five indexes
to stand for the bridge transportation and economy, we construct the economic model by means of the up-to-date Time Serial Analysis. Firstly, to test the stabilization of these indexes with prevalent methods of unit root. Secondly, to find their relativity and to analyze whether the relativity is con-integration relationship (namely the long dynamic equilibrium relation). Thirdly, to make further research about the relationship between Continental Bridge transportation and its economy by strength of Granger test which is usually used by foreign economic experts . Finally, to summarize and evaluate the results received from the models. All the statistic operation is principally processed by the soft EXCEL and SPSS.
At the beginning of the fourth chapter, we analyze the current new situation of world economy and Asia-Europe regional economy to point out that the new situation offers the New Eurasia Continental Bridge a good opportunity. Then we emphasize on the development strategy of the Bridge transportation as well as the aims and measures to achieve it. At the end of this chapter, we insist that promoting the development of Continental Bridge area need to adopt a series of special policies for industry, finance, tax, environment and system innovation. Around these aspects we put forward some major policy proposals.
Wei Yanli (Industrial Economics) Directed by Professor Qu Linchi
论文各章节的内容安排如下：
第一章从理论上阐述了陆桥运输对于陆桥经济发展的关键性作用。
第二章对陆桥经济带的客观情况进行了详尽的分析，论述陆桥经济带在我国区域经济发展的总体格局中具有重要的战略优势和地位。
第三章从定量的角度验证陆桥运输与陆桥经济发展的关系。选择代表陆桥运输和沿桥经济的五个指标，运用最新的时间序列分析方法，利用经济数据构造和建立经济计量模型。首先采用近几年很流行的单位根检验方法检验各个指标时序的平稳性，然后建立指标间的相关关系，运用协整理论去分析这种相关关系是否构成协整关系(即长期动态均衡关系)，接着利用国外经济分析中常用的格兰杰因果检验研究陆桥运输与沿桥经济是如何相互促进、相互引导的，最后根据所得到的模型结果，进行了综合评价。文中大部分的统计建模运算是由软件EXCEL及SPSS完成的。
第四章首先分析当前世界经济及亚欧区域经济发展的新形势，指出新亚欧大陆桥的发展面临着良好的外部环境；接着重点探讨了陆桥运输的相关政策，笔者根据国家计委关于新亚欧大陆桥运输发展的战略目标及相关原则，提出了推动陆桥运输发展战略目标实现的措施；最后强调进行陆桥经济带开发需要一系列产业、财政、税收、金融、生态环境、体制创新等方面特殊政策的支持，围绕这些方面提出了一系列的政策建议。
New Eurasia Continental Bridge is stretching over three great economic regions in China's eastern, central and western parts. As the artery and basis for economic growth of 10 provinces along the Continental Bridge, NECB links up raw materials market, energy sources market, manufacturing market and consumptive market. It also plays an indispensable role in driving the economy development along the economic belt. At the turn of the century, with the third generation of China's leadership putting forward the 'strategy for the grand-scale development of China's western region', our government has clarified important policies on pushing forward the great development of north-western China through giving full play to the role of selected central cities and on the support of this land bridge communication artery. Today, at the time of the strategy for the grand-scale being implemented, this paper primarily tests the relationship between Continental Bridge transportation and its economy through quantitative analysi
s, which can proof the dependability and feasibility of the 'point-line' development theory. It also can provide some quantitative advice for all grades of states government and enterprises, especially for the transportation and commercial branches to make decision and to take forecast. Another emphasis of this article is to study and explore strategy and policies of Continental Bridge transportation development as well as policy proposals for promoting the economic growth of the whole region, which has realistic meaning to substantiate the grand-scale development of China's western region and to promote the coordinated development of China's regional economics. The whole article is divided into four chapters, Chapter three and Chapter four being made the main body thereof.
The contents of this paper are listed as follows:
The first chapter illustrates the crucial role of transportation played in driving the economy of the regions along the Continental Bridge to grow.
The second chapter analyzes the objective conditions of the economic belt along Continental Bridge in detail, then disserts that there is an important strategic advantage and position of this economic belt in China's regional economy development.
The third chapter tests the relationship between Continental Bridge transportation and its economy through quantitative analysis. Selecting five indexes
to stand for the bridge transportation and economy, we construct the economic model by means of the up-to-date Time Serial Analysis. Firstly, to test the stabilization of these indexes with prevalent methods of unit root. Secondly, to find their relativity and to analyze whether the relativity is con-integration relationship (namely the long dynamic equilibrium relation). Thirdly, to make further research about the relationship between Continental Bridge transportation and its economy by strength of Granger test which is usually used by foreign economic experts . Finally, to summarize and evaluate the results received from the models. All the statistic operation is principally processed by the soft EXCEL and SPSS.
At the beginning of the fourth chapter, we analyze the current new situation of world economy and Asia-Europe regional economy to point out that the new situation offers the New Eurasia Continental Bridge a good opportunity. Then we emphasize on the development strategy of the Bridge transportation as well as the aims and measures to achieve it. At the end of this chapter, we insist that promoting the development of Continental Bridge area need to adopt a series of special policies for industry, finance, tax, environment and system innovation. Around these aspects we put forward some major policy proposals.
Wei Yanli (Industrial Economics) Directed by Professor Qu Linchi
引文
1. Safa Demirbas, Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law, Discussion Papers in Economics, 1999/3
2. Gao Zhenggang, Market Economy and Social Development, World Summit on Social Development, 1995
3. M. Bekmagambetov, Vision of the Eurasian Transport Corridor, 2003
4．卢纹岱．SPSS For windows统计分析．电子工业出版社，2000
5．汪同三．数量经济学前沿．社会科学文献出版社，2001
6．伍超标．经济计量学导论．中国统计出版社，1998
7．施锡铨，范正绮．数据分析方法．上海财经大学出版社，1997
8．陆懋祖．高等时间序列经济计量学．上海人民出版社，1999
9．魏权龄，刘起运，胡显佑等．数量经济学．中国人民大学出版社，1998
10．何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．中国人民大学出版社，1998
11．陈贻龙，邵振一．运输经济学．人民交通出版社，1999
12．黄亚钧，谢联胜，林利军主译．现代产业组织理论．上海人民出版社，1998
13．尹伯成．西方经济学简明教程．上海人民出版社，1999
14．王炜析．应用时间序列分析．广西师范大学出版社，1998
15．程智培．新亚欧大陆桥．海洋出版社，1991
16．翁宗勇．口岸管理简明教程．中山大学出版社，1995
17．洪钧．国际大通道——陇海兰新亚欧大陆桥纵横．中国矿业大学出版社，1995
18．程智培．连云港市开放型经济战略纵论．改革出版社，1994
19．秦光汉．陆桥经济研究．江苏陆桥经济研究所，1998
20．陈栋生．西部开发大战略新思路．经济科学出版社，2001
21．徐淑芬．大陆桥运输．中国铁道出版社，1997
22．高振刚．新亚欧大陆桥开发开放政策框架．亚洲开发银行，1996
23．刘建强，何景华．交通运输业与国民经济发展的实证研究．交通运输系统工程与信息，2002(2)
24．冯国柱，陈宝峰．基于银行间国债回购利率时间序列的实证分析．数量经济技术经济研究，2003(5)
25．魏巍贤，康朝锋．上海股市价量关系的实证分析．预测，2001(6)
26．庞皓，陈述云．格兰杰因果检验的有效性及其应用．统计研究，1999(11)
27．魏巍贤．经济增长与外商直接投资的因果关系分析．预测，1997(5)
28．罗栋生．陆桥经济——世界经济发展的第三里程碑．开放经济管理，1990(5)(6)
29．崔忠付．新亚欧大陆桥的运输现状及其发展对策．大陆桥经济，1997(2)
30．孙珏．新亚欧大陆桥过境集装箱运量分析与预估．连云港文集，1998(6)
31．程升．新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作的基本思路．大陆桥经济，1996(2)(3)
32．芮杏文．关于新亚欧大陆桥的报告．1996年访问联合国讲演
33．宋健．在1996北京新亚欧大陆桥区域经济发展国际研讨会上的开幕词
34．徐国弟，魏后凯．中西部：战略发展呼唤新思路．中国经济信息，1999(10)
35．崔冠杰．沿新亚欧大陆桥，掀第三次对外开放高潮．国际贸易，1995(10)
36．徐俊．社会发展策略．红旗出版社，1999
37．许明．关键时刻：当代中国亟待解决的27个问题．今日中国出版社，1997
38．王会昌．中国文化地理．华中师范大学出版社，1992
39．周炼石．评梯度推移理论与政策在中国的实践．上海经济研究，1996(5)
40．陈淮．中国地区经济跨世纪发展过程中面临的若干战略问题．改革与理论，1996(4)
41．王曙光．港口发展的区域观点．经济地理，1993(1)
42．高振刚．加快陆桥经济带开发开放，构筑我国“开”字型战略新格局．山东统计年鉴，1998
43．罗开富．加强合作，建设更具竞争力的新亚欧大陆桥运输通道．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的主题报告．
44．崔林涛．重开现代“丝绸之路”加快建设亚欧大陆桥运输通道促进区域合作与经济发展．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的主题报告．
45．崔冠杰．陆桥沿线产业优势互补与经贸合作．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的发言．
46．肖星．新亚欧大陆桥运输面临的机遇和挑战．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的发言．
47．李振峰．关于新亚欧大陆桥沿桥优势互补及合理产业布局专题讨论情况汇报．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上闭幕式总结．
48．Markku Heiskanen. 关于新亚欧大陆桥物流建设及提高大陆桥运输竞争力的办法
专题总结．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上闭幕式总结．
49．龙永图．龙永图在新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会闭幕式上的讲话．
50．马继列．交通运输与经济发展的相关关系．综合运输，1998(3)
51．交通部综合规划司．全国交通统计资料汇编．1979～2003
52．国家统计局国民经济综合统计司．新中国五十年统计资料汇编．
53. http://www.landbridge.gov.cn
2. Gao Zhenggang, Market Economy and Social Development, World Summit on Social Development, 1995
3. M. Bekmagambetov, Vision of the Eurasian Transport Corridor, 2003
4．卢纹岱．SPSS For windows统计分析．电子工业出版社，2000
5．汪同三．数量经济学前沿．社会科学文献出版社，2001
6．伍超标．经济计量学导论．中国统计出版社，1998
7．施锡铨，范正绮．数据分析方法．上海财经大学出版社，1997
8．陆懋祖．高等时间序列经济计量学．上海人民出版社，1999
9．魏权龄，刘起运，胡显佑等．数量经济学．中国人民大学出版社，1998
10．何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．中国人民大学出版社，1998
11．陈贻龙，邵振一．运输经济学．人民交通出版社，1999
12．黄亚钧，谢联胜，林利军主译．现代产业组织理论．上海人民出版社，1998
13．尹伯成．西方经济学简明教程．上海人民出版社，1999
14．王炜析．应用时间序列分析．广西师范大学出版社，1998
15．程智培．新亚欧大陆桥．海洋出版社，1991
16．翁宗勇．口岸管理简明教程．中山大学出版社，1995
17．洪钧．国际大通道——陇海兰新亚欧大陆桥纵横．中国矿业大学出版社，1995
18．程智培．连云港市开放型经济战略纵论．改革出版社，1994
19．秦光汉．陆桥经济研究．江苏陆桥经济研究所，1998
20．陈栋生．西部开发大战略新思路．经济科学出版社，2001
21．徐淑芬．大陆桥运输．中国铁道出版社，1997
22．高振刚．新亚欧大陆桥开发开放政策框架．亚洲开发银行，1996
23．刘建强，何景华．交通运输业与国民经济发展的实证研究．交通运输系统工程与信息，2002(2)
24．冯国柱，陈宝峰．基于银行间国债回购利率时间序列的实证分析．数量经济技术经济研究，2003(5)
25．魏巍贤，康朝锋．上海股市价量关系的实证分析．预测，2001(6)
26．庞皓，陈述云．格兰杰因果检验的有效性及其应用．统计研究，1999(11)
27．魏巍贤．经济增长与外商直接投资的因果关系分析．预测，1997(5)
28．罗栋生．陆桥经济——世界经济发展的第三里程碑．开放经济管理，1990(5)(6)
29．崔忠付．新亚欧大陆桥的运输现状及其发展对策．大陆桥经济，1997(2)
30．孙珏．新亚欧大陆桥过境集装箱运量分析与预估．连云港文集，1998(6)
31．程升．新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作的基本思路．大陆桥经济，1996(2)(3)
32．芮杏文．关于新亚欧大陆桥的报告．1996年访问联合国讲演
33．宋健．在1996北京新亚欧大陆桥区域经济发展国际研讨会上的开幕词
34．徐国弟，魏后凯．中西部：战略发展呼唤新思路．中国经济信息，1999(10)
35．崔冠杰．沿新亚欧大陆桥，掀第三次对外开放高潮．国际贸易，1995(10)
36．徐俊．社会发展策略．红旗出版社，1999
37．许明．关键时刻：当代中国亟待解决的27个问题．今日中国出版社，1997
38．王会昌．中国文化地理．华中师范大学出版社，1992
39．周炼石．评梯度推移理论与政策在中国的实践．上海经济研究，1996(5)
40．陈淮．中国地区经济跨世纪发展过程中面临的若干战略问题．改革与理论，1996(4)
41．王曙光．港口发展的区域观点．经济地理，1993(1)
42．高振刚．加快陆桥经济带开发开放，构筑我国“开”字型战略新格局．山东统计年鉴，1998
43．罗开富．加强合作，建设更具竞争力的新亚欧大陆桥运输通道．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的主题报告．
44．崔林涛．重开现代“丝绸之路”加快建设亚欧大陆桥运输通道促进区域合作与经济发展．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的主题报告．
45．崔冠杰．陆桥沿线产业优势互补与经贸合作．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的发言．
46．肖星．新亚欧大陆桥运输面临的机遇和挑战．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上的发言．
47．李振峰．关于新亚欧大陆桥沿桥优势互补及合理产业布局专题讨论情况汇报．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上闭幕式总结．
48．Markku Heiskanen. 关于新亚欧大陆桥物流建设及提高大陆桥运输竞争力的办法
专题总结．2002年中国连云港新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会上闭幕式总结．
49．龙永图．龙永图在新亚欧大陆桥区域经济合作国际研讨会闭幕式上的讲话．
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52．国家统计局国民经济综合统计司．新中国五十年统计资料汇编．
53. http://www.landbridge.gov.cn