基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统设计
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摘要
入世以来,随着中国经济与世界经济的接轨,社会主义市场经济体制不断完善,政府在经济发展的过程中所起的作用也随之做出了相应的转变。面对许多前所未有的挑战,地方政府在决策过程中所涉及到的问题、需要考虑的因素都比以往更为复杂,如何制定科学的经济政策,进行合理的经济决策已成为地方政府的第一要务。因此,借助先进的管理方法进行科学化决策就显得十分必要。同时,各种通讯技术、信息技术以及核方法等人工智能技术的迅猛发展,为构建高效、稳定的决策支持系统提供了强有力的保证,也是提高政府部门办公效率的最有效手段之一。因此,应用先进的管理方法以及前沿的技术为决策者提供决策参考信息显得尤为重要同时也具备实现的可能性。本文正是基于此目的,对如何构建一套基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统做了较为深入的分析与研究。
本文在分析区域经济系统的运行规律、发展趋势和影响因素的基础上,研究建立了基于核方法的区域经济系统的预测、预警与经济政策模拟运行系统;并用MATLAB语言编译实现上述算法与模型,然后应用MATLAB的COM组件编程技术将这些模型封装成组件,最后应用B/S系统调用上述组件,从而实现B/S模式下的基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统。本系统选用C#.NET作为开发语言,选用SQL SERVER 2000进行数据库的开发。系统最终实现了数据维护与更新、数据查询与统计、经济预测、经济预警、经济政策模拟运行和系统管理等六个模块的功能。
该系统充分利用现代网络技术和数据库技术,帮助政府决策部门及时了解区域经济发展的有关信息;并根据用户提供的实际经济发展情况和系统分析得出的评价指标体系,运用科学的分析模型,给出最优的、可靠的结论,为决策者随时随地提供高效、及时、高质量的决策信息,从而提高决策的科学性,引导区域经济健康发展。
Since China has entered the WTO, Chinese economy gradual integration with the world economy and the socialist market economic system continuously improved, thus the role that played by the government in the process of economic development also made corresponding changes. Facing so many unprecedented challenges, local governments in the decision-making process involved in the issues and factors to be considered more complex than ever. How to formulate a scientific economic policy in order to make a rational economic decision has become the most important task of the local governments. Whether full apply the auxiliary function of information technology, is a key measure for improving the efficiency of the local government's office work. In the same time, the rapid development of advanced science and technology such as communications technology, information technology and artificial intelligence technology provided a powerful guarantee for building an efficient and stable information system. Thus, using advanced management methods and information technology to provide decision-making information for the decision maker not only the urgent matter but also with the possibility of achieving. This paper does a more in-depth analysis and research on how to build up a set of Regional Economical Intelligent Decision Support System (REIDSS) based on WEB.
Based on analyze the mechanisms, and development trends and influencing factors of regional economical systems, this paper has designed a forecasting, early warning and simulation modeling systems which are translated and edited by Matlab as COM (Component Object Model) linked by C#.NET independently. The REIDSS based on WEB is exploited by C#.NET and SQL Server 2000, realized seven central module functions: data maintenance and update module, data statistic and query module, economic analyze module, economic predict module, economic early warning module, decision simulation module, and system manage module.
REIDSS makes the best use of technology of modern web and database, can help the local government to realize the information timely, provide an optimal and reliable conclusions with scientific model which base on the real economic situation and system evaluation indicators. REIDSS can provide efficient, timely, high-quality decision-information for the decision-maker, improve the scientific nature of the decision-making and lead the regional economy healthy development.
本文在分析区域经济系统的运行规律、发展趋势和影响因素的基础上,研究建立了基于核方法的区域经济系统的预测、预警与经济政策模拟运行系统;并用MATLAB语言编译实现上述算法与模型,然后应用MATLAB的COM组件编程技术将这些模型封装成组件,最后应用B/S系统调用上述组件,从而实现B/S模式下的基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统。本系统选用C#.NET作为开发语言,选用SQL SERVER 2000进行数据库的开发。系统最终实现了数据维护与更新、数据查询与统计、经济预测、经济预警、经济政策模拟运行和系统管理等六个模块的功能。
该系统充分利用现代网络技术和数据库技术,帮助政府决策部门及时了解区域经济发展的有关信息;并根据用户提供的实际经济发展情况和系统分析得出的评价指标体系,运用科学的分析模型,给出最优的、可靠的结论,为决策者随时随地提供高效、及时、高质量的决策信息,从而提高决策的科学性,引导区域经济健康发展。
Since China has entered the WTO, Chinese economy gradual integration with the world economy and the socialist market economic system continuously improved, thus the role that played by the government in the process of economic development also made corresponding changes. Facing so many unprecedented challenges, local governments in the decision-making process involved in the issues and factors to be considered more complex than ever. How to formulate a scientific economic policy in order to make a rational economic decision has become the most important task of the local governments. Whether full apply the auxiliary function of information technology, is a key measure for improving the efficiency of the local government's office work. In the same time, the rapid development of advanced science and technology such as communications technology, information technology and artificial intelligence technology provided a powerful guarantee for building an efficient and stable information system. Thus, using advanced management methods and information technology to provide decision-making information for the decision maker not only the urgent matter but also with the possibility of achieving. This paper does a more in-depth analysis and research on how to build up a set of Regional Economical Intelligent Decision Support System (REIDSS) based on WEB.
Based on analyze the mechanisms, and development trends and influencing factors of regional economical systems, this paper has designed a forecasting, early warning and simulation modeling systems which are translated and edited by Matlab as COM (Component Object Model) linked by C#.NET independently. The REIDSS based on WEB is exploited by C#.NET and SQL Server 2000, realized seven central module functions: data maintenance and update module, data statistic and query module, economic analyze module, economic predict module, economic early warning module, decision simulation module, and system manage module.
REIDSS makes the best use of technology of modern web and database, can help the local government to realize the information timely, provide an optimal and reliable conclusions with scientific model which base on the real economic situation and system evaluation indicators. REIDSS can provide efficient, timely, high-quality decision-information for the decision-maker, improve the scientific nature of the decision-making and lead the regional economy healthy development.
引文
[1]聂华林,李泉,杨建国.发展区域经济学通论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2006
[2]魏后凯.现代区域经济学[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2006
[3]白永秀.关于区域经济学几个基本理论问题的思考[J].山西财经大学学报,2004,12(5):28-33
[4]李小建.新世纪中国区域经济学理论研究的重点领域[J].经济经纬,2004,16(3):56-60
[5]宋学明.中国区域经济发展及其收敛性[J].经济研究,1996,9(1):38-44
[6]Hendry D,Ericsson N.Understanding Economic Forecasts[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,2001
[7]John J.Siegfried.The Economics of Regional Economics Associations[J].Department of Economics Vanderbilt University,2001,12(8):107-113
[8]高洪深.决策支持系统(DSS)理论方法案例(第三版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[9]吴新年.决策支持系统发展现状与趋势分析[J].情报资料工作,2007,33(1):37-42
[10]黄牧涛.组合智能决策支持系统研究及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,18(4):82-87
[11]Sandha A,Agha K,Islam R.Artificial Intelligence as a Decision Support System for Petroleum Engineers[J].Petroleum Science & Technology,2005,23(5):555-571
[12]毛海军.智能决策支持系统(IDSS)研究进展[J].小型微型计算机系统,2003,23(5):76-81
[13]蔡雨阳,黄岩,李农等,MIS,DSS和EIS的数据集成[J].管理工程学报,2001,4(2):89-93
[14]Ralph H.SpragueJr& Eric D.Carson.Building Effective Decision Support Systems[M].Birmingham:Prentice Hall College,2002
[15]张荣梅.智能决策支持系统研究开发及应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2003
[16]张洁,胡运权.决策支持系统研究基础及发展趋势[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,1999,6:38-43
[17]Er.M C.A Summary,Problems,and Future Trends.Decision Support Systems[J].1988,4:355-363
[18]肖健华.区域经济发展智能预测方法[J].经济数学,2005,22(1):57-63
[19]业宁.一种SVM非线性回归算法[J].计算机工程,2005,20(12):66-72
[20]徐志敏,刘希玉.多元回归分析及其在辅助决策中的应用[J].计算机工程,2004,32(10):16-21
[21]肖健华,林健,刘晋.区域经济中长期预测的支持向量回归方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,33(4):29-36
[22]刘起运.宏观经济数量分析方法与模型[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002
[23]朱明德,余光辉.统计预测与控制[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1993
[24]郭崇慧.地区中长期发展规划若干定量模型、算法及应用研究[D].大连理工大学,2004
[25]Vapnik V.The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory[M].New York:Springer Verlag,1995
[26]Smola A J,Scholkopf B.A tutorial on support vector regression[R].Royal Holloway College University of London,UK,1998
[27]林健,彭敏晶.基于主动学习的SVDD预警技术[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006,25(6):251-253
[28]K R Muller,S Mika,G Ratsch,et al.An Introduction to Kemel Based Learning Algorithms[J].IEEE Trans.on Neural Networks,2001,12(2):181-201.
[29]S Gunn.Support Vector Machines for Classification and Regression[R].Technical Report.University of Southamptom.1998.
[30]李昕.基于ADO.NET的ASP.NET页面程序[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006,25(2):89-95
[31]张友生.系统分析与设计技术[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[32]覃国蓉.基于B/S架构的软件项目实训[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2004
[33]樊建编著,ASP.NET+ADO.NET项目开发实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社2004
[34]Reilly,Douglas.ASP.NET Server Components[J].Software Tools for the Professional Programmer,2002,27(6):62-66
[35]微软.NET Framework框架软件开发工具[E].Microsoft.Net Framework SDK,2003
[36]Microsoft.DOCNET Framework Developer's Guide[E].MSDN Library,2003.
[37]丁宝康、董健全.数据库实用教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001
[38]杨启亮.面向SQL Server的OPC Client开发[J].计算机应用与软件,2007,12(2):75-79
[39]谷震离.ADO访问SOL Server数据库技术分析及其应用[J].计算机应用与软件,2004,12(10):101-105
[40]仲元昌.基于SQL Server 2000的企业数据仓库设计与应用[J].计算机科学,2003,36(12):95-101
[41]王未央.基于方法库的联机分析系统框架的设计与实现[J].计算机科学,2007,32(4):81-86
[42]李勇.一类DSS方法库的可重用体系结构重庆大学学报(自然科学版)[J].2003,52(3):79-83
[43]董长虹,余啸海.MATLAB接口技术与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2004
[44]黄梯云,李一军.模型管理系统及其发展[J].管理科学学报,1998,11(1):57-63
[45]张雪风.决策支持系统中的模型及模型库管理系统[J].计算机研究与发展,1993,11(3):39-43
[46]林杰.基于Web服务的分布模型管理系统的研究[J].计算机应用,2004,28(4):66-71
[47]朱欣娟.面向应用领域的知识系统建模及实现[J].系统工程与电子技术,200411(6):86-91
[48]刘健.基于案例推理的知识系统的设计与实现[D].南京航空航天大学,2004
[49]J.D.Holt,S.M.Chung.Mining Association Rules Using Inverted Hashing and Pruning[J].Information Processing Letters,2002,18(3):211-220
[50]C.Guoging,W Qiang,L.De,et al.Simple Association Rules(SAR)and the SAR-Based Rule Discovery[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2002,16(3):721-733
[51]张沧生.集成学习算法的比较研究[J].河北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,21(5):78-83
[2]魏后凯.现代区域经济学[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2006
[3]白永秀.关于区域经济学几个基本理论问题的思考[J].山西财经大学学报,2004,12(5):28-33
[4]李小建.新世纪中国区域经济学理论研究的重点领域[J].经济经纬,2004,16(3):56-60
[5]宋学明.中国区域经济发展及其收敛性[J].经济研究,1996,9(1):38-44
[6]Hendry D,Ericsson N.Understanding Economic Forecasts[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,2001
[7]John J.Siegfried.The Economics of Regional Economics Associations[J].Department of Economics Vanderbilt University,2001,12(8):107-113
[8]高洪深.决策支持系统(DSS)理论方法案例(第三版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[9]吴新年.决策支持系统发展现状与趋势分析[J].情报资料工作,2007,33(1):37-42
[10]黄牧涛.组合智能决策支持系统研究及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,18(4):82-87
[11]Sandha A,Agha K,Islam R.Artificial Intelligence as a Decision Support System for Petroleum Engineers[J].Petroleum Science & Technology,2005,23(5):555-571
[12]毛海军.智能决策支持系统(IDSS)研究进展[J].小型微型计算机系统,2003,23(5):76-81
[13]蔡雨阳,黄岩,李农等,MIS,DSS和EIS的数据集成[J].管理工程学报,2001,4(2):89-93
[14]Ralph H.SpragueJr& Eric D.Carson.Building Effective Decision Support Systems[M].Birmingham:Prentice Hall College,2002
[15]张荣梅.智能决策支持系统研究开发及应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2003
[16]张洁,胡运权.决策支持系统研究基础及发展趋势[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,1999,6:38-43
[17]Er.M C.A Summary,Problems,and Future Trends.Decision Support Systems[J].1988,4:355-363
[18]肖健华.区域经济发展智能预测方法[J].经济数学,2005,22(1):57-63
[19]业宁.一种SVM非线性回归算法[J].计算机工程,2005,20(12):66-72
[20]徐志敏,刘希玉.多元回归分析及其在辅助决策中的应用[J].计算机工程,2004,32(10):16-21
[21]肖健华,林健,刘晋.区域经济中长期预测的支持向量回归方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,33(4):29-36
[22]刘起运.宏观经济数量分析方法与模型[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002
[23]朱明德,余光辉.统计预测与控制[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1993
[24]郭崇慧.地区中长期发展规划若干定量模型、算法及应用研究[D].大连理工大学,2004
[25]Vapnik V.The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory[M].New York:Springer Verlag,1995
[26]Smola A J,Scholkopf B.A tutorial on support vector regression[R].Royal Holloway College University of London,UK,1998
[27]林健,彭敏晶.基于主动学习的SVDD预警技术[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006,25(6):251-253
[28]K R Muller,S Mika,G Ratsch,et al.An Introduction to Kemel Based Learning Algorithms[J].IEEE Trans.on Neural Networks,2001,12(2):181-201.
[29]S Gunn.Support Vector Machines for Classification and Regression[R].Technical Report.University of Southamptom.1998.
[30]李昕.基于ADO.NET的ASP.NET页面程序[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2006,25(2):89-95
[31]张友生.系统分析与设计技术[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[32]覃国蓉.基于B/S架构的软件项目实训[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2004
[33]樊建编著,ASP.NET+ADO.NET项目开发实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社2004
[34]Reilly,Douglas.ASP.NET Server Components[J].Software Tools for the Professional Programmer,2002,27(6):62-66
[35]微软.NET Framework框架软件开发工具[E].Microsoft.Net Framework SDK,2003
[36]Microsoft.DOCNET Framework Developer's Guide[E].MSDN Library,2003.
[37]丁宝康、董健全.数据库实用教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001
[38]杨启亮.面向SQL Server的OPC Client开发[J].计算机应用与软件,2007,12(2):75-79
[39]谷震离.ADO访问SOL Server数据库技术分析及其应用[J].计算机应用与软件,2004,12(10):101-105
[40]仲元昌.基于SQL Server 2000的企业数据仓库设计与应用[J].计算机科学,2003,36(12):95-101
[41]王未央.基于方法库的联机分析系统框架的设计与实现[J].计算机科学,2007,32(4):81-86
[42]李勇.一类DSS方法库的可重用体系结构重庆大学学报(自然科学版)[J].2003,52(3):79-83
[43]董长虹,余啸海.MATLAB接口技术与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2004
[44]黄梯云,李一军.模型管理系统及其发展[J].管理科学学报,1998,11(1):57-63
[45]张雪风.决策支持系统中的模型及模型库管理系统[J].计算机研究与发展,1993,11(3):39-43
[46]林杰.基于Web服务的分布模型管理系统的研究[J].计算机应用,2004,28(4):66-71
[47]朱欣娟.面向应用领域的知识系统建模及实现[J].系统工程与电子技术,200411(6):86-91
[48]刘健.基于案例推理的知识系统的设计与实现[D].南京航空航天大学,2004
[49]J.D.Holt,S.M.Chung.Mining Association Rules Using Inverted Hashing and Pruning[J].Information Processing Letters,2002,18(3):211-220
[50]C.Guoging,W Qiang,L.De,et al.Simple Association Rules(SAR)and the SAR-Based Rule Discovery[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2002,16(3):721-733
[51]张沧生.集成学习算法的比较研究[J].河北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,21(5):78-83