技术灾害应急响应群决策方法研究与技术实现
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摘要
与自然灾害不同,经济社会已经选择了与技术风险相伴而生。技术灾害在数量上和规模上呈现出上升和扩大趋势,在技术灾害向新兴工业区域和发展中国家转移的态势下,当前技术灾害应急响应迟缓与决策失误的案例却时有发生,给生命安全、生态环境与经济增长造成了难以估量的损失,因此研究技术灾害应急决策问题具有重大现实意义。目前,群决策问题已经出现大量研究成果,然而适用于技术灾害应急响应的群决策方法研究与决策支持技术仍非常有限。为此,本文通过对技术灾害进行理论研究,提炼技术灾害应急决策的典型特征,基于此构建技术灾害应急群决策研究体系。
(1)现有群决策实验室研究很少涉及决策方案的生成问题,然而对于技术灾害应急决策而言,应急方案从何而来是实施应急响应的首要步骤。基于案例推理,本文对技术灾害应急群决策方案的生成方法进行研究,并采用整体优势度解决现有案例检索策略不能识别负向匹配案例的问题,同时采用自适应控制方法对获取的应急方案进行调整,从而生成用于技术灾害应急群决策的评价方案集合。方法被应用于生成煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故应急救援方案,结果证明了研究的可靠性。
(2)针对技术灾害多灾种衍生和易发次生灾害的特征,以及由此产生的应急决策难题,提出局部群决策方法,即允许决策个体基于领域知识选择性地参与应急方案集合的评价,通过解决方案分配、权重分配与群体偏好集结等关键问题,构建局部群决策模型,特别地,模型根据专家给出的方案局部权重对专家权重、方案群权重和属性权重进行整体求解,结果相对客观。局部群决策方法被应用于地铁火灾事故应急疏散,验证了研究的有效性。
(3)针对技术灾害的多阶段演化特征,研究多阶段应急群决策方法,对于决策过程中决策专家对方案评价缺少把握的情况,允许决策专家以残缺判断矩阵的形式给出方案偏好；另外,由于技术灾害应急决策涉及广泛的领域知识,每位决策专家在各个阶段的意见重要性不同,为此,多阶段应急群决策模型还解决了决策专家的分阶段赋权问题,最后通过求解阶段权重与阶段群体方案偏好获取全局群体最优解,方法被应用于应急处置危险化学品液态苯泄漏。
(4)本文还对技术灾害应急群决策的有效性进行评价,因决策环境和决策目标不同而产生的应急群决策效果不具有可比性,针对该问题提出基于决策个体特征识别的代理评价方法。方法通过构建目标规划模型,分别确定每项决策的个体标准体系,从而在识别决策个体特征的基础上,基于决策效果对应急群决策的有效性进行代理评价,因而方法具有分析功能,为提高应急群决策的有效性提供改进建议,方法被应用于评价地铁火灾事故应急疏散演习的群决策有效性。
(5)基于上述技术灾害相关理论与应急群决策方法研究,在系统结构设计和系统功能架构的基础上,最后本文采用Java技术与Internet技术开发网络环境下技术灾害应急群决策支持系统,基于系统管理与灾情监控功能,该系统使应急决策者能够在网络环境下对技术灾害应急响应做出实时决策并反馈信息,经系统集成处理后获得群决策最优解,从而提高技术灾害应急响应的决策效率和决策质量。
Different from nature hazard, economic society has made a choice to development with technology risk together. Technology hazard has been ascending in quantity and extending in scale, and under the trend of transfer to new industry estate and developing country, currently, emergency respond sluggish and wrong decision making always happened, which have induced great loss to life safety, economic development and environment. Thus, study for emergency response and group decision making method has important meaning. Now, group decision making has achieved a great deal research productions, yet which can be fit for application of emergency response to technology hazard is still limited. Therefore, by theory study of technology hazard, the dissertation concludes the main characters of technology hazard emergency decision making, and constructs the research system for group decision making to response technology hazard.
(1) Current experiment studies on group decision making seldom deal with the problem of generating decision scenario, however, it is the first step to actualize emergency response for technology hazard emergency decision making. Based on Case-based Reasoning, dissertation will study how to generate the decision making scenario for technology hazard emergency response. It uses Integrate Superiority Degree to resolve the question that current case retrieval strategies can't identify the source case which match with target problem negatively, and then it adopts self-adapting control method to adjust the obtained scenario, and generates the scenario set for technology hazard emergency group decision making. The method is applied into generating the emergency scenarios for gas explosion accident in coal mine, and is approved to be reliability.
(2) For the characters of technology hazard about multi-hazard deriving and second hazard happing, and the induced difficult problem for emergency decision, dissertation proposes the partial group decision making method, which allows decision individuals to evaluate emergency scenario set selectivity based on their domain knowledge. According to resolving the key issues of distributing decision scenarios to experts, assigning weights and concentrating group preferences, a partial group decision model is proposed. Especially, by using the scenario partial weights given from experts, the model will get the whole solution for attribute, scenario and expert weights, thus the decision is objective comparatively. The method is used to make a group decision for emergency evacuation in metro fire accident, and it is approved to be validity.
(3) For another character of technology about multi-stage evolvement, dissertation also studies multi-stage emergency group decision making method. Under the situation that decision expert can't make sure of some scenarios during decision procedure, the method allows experts to give the scenario preference with uncomplete judgement matrix, Morever, since technology hazard emergency decision making needs broad domain knowledge, and the importance of experts' opinions are different from each other in every stage, thus, multi-stage emergency group decision making model resolves the problem of assigning expert weights in each step too. At last, the method is applied to deal with dangerous chemical liquid benzene leaking.
(4) After that, dissertation will evaluate the efficiency of emergency group decision making for technology hazard. The emergency group decision making effect can't be evaluated because of the difference in decision environment and decision goal. To resolve that problem, dissertation constructs a goal programming model to assign each decision item an individual criterion system. Then from the point of decision effect, it evaluates the efficiency emergency group decision making by surrogate on the base of identifying decision individual character, therefore, the method has the function of analysis, which can provide suggestions to improve the efficiency of emergency group decision making. The method is applied to evaluate the group decision making efficiency in metro fire accident evacuation.
(5) Be based upon those studies on technology hazard theories and emergency group decision making, according to designing system framework and functions, dissertation finally develops the emergency group decision making support system for technology hazard emergency response by Java and Internet technology. With the functions of system management and the monitor disaster situation, the system can make experts actualize real time decision making and feedback information for emergency response under the net environment, by which the optimal of group decision making will be obtained, and then the decision efficiency and quality will be improved to respond technology hazard.
(1)现有群决策实验室研究很少涉及决策方案的生成问题,然而对于技术灾害应急决策而言,应急方案从何而来是实施应急响应的首要步骤。基于案例推理,本文对技术灾害应急群决策方案的生成方法进行研究,并采用整体优势度解决现有案例检索策略不能识别负向匹配案例的问题,同时采用自适应控制方法对获取的应急方案进行调整,从而生成用于技术灾害应急群决策的评价方案集合。方法被应用于生成煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故应急救援方案,结果证明了研究的可靠性。
(2)针对技术灾害多灾种衍生和易发次生灾害的特征,以及由此产生的应急决策难题,提出局部群决策方法,即允许决策个体基于领域知识选择性地参与应急方案集合的评价,通过解决方案分配、权重分配与群体偏好集结等关键问题,构建局部群决策模型,特别地,模型根据专家给出的方案局部权重对专家权重、方案群权重和属性权重进行整体求解,结果相对客观。局部群决策方法被应用于地铁火灾事故应急疏散,验证了研究的有效性。
(3)针对技术灾害的多阶段演化特征,研究多阶段应急群决策方法,对于决策过程中决策专家对方案评价缺少把握的情况,允许决策专家以残缺判断矩阵的形式给出方案偏好；另外,由于技术灾害应急决策涉及广泛的领域知识,每位决策专家在各个阶段的意见重要性不同,为此,多阶段应急群决策模型还解决了决策专家的分阶段赋权问题,最后通过求解阶段权重与阶段群体方案偏好获取全局群体最优解,方法被应用于应急处置危险化学品液态苯泄漏。
(4)本文还对技术灾害应急群决策的有效性进行评价,因决策环境和决策目标不同而产生的应急群决策效果不具有可比性,针对该问题提出基于决策个体特征识别的代理评价方法。方法通过构建目标规划模型,分别确定每项决策的个体标准体系,从而在识别决策个体特征的基础上,基于决策效果对应急群决策的有效性进行代理评价,因而方法具有分析功能,为提高应急群决策的有效性提供改进建议,方法被应用于评价地铁火灾事故应急疏散演习的群决策有效性。
(5)基于上述技术灾害相关理论与应急群决策方法研究,在系统结构设计和系统功能架构的基础上,最后本文采用Java技术与Internet技术开发网络环境下技术灾害应急群决策支持系统,基于系统管理与灾情监控功能,该系统使应急决策者能够在网络环境下对技术灾害应急响应做出实时决策并反馈信息,经系统集成处理后获得群决策最优解,从而提高技术灾害应急响应的决策效率和决策质量。
Different from nature hazard, economic society has made a choice to development with technology risk together. Technology hazard has been ascending in quantity and extending in scale, and under the trend of transfer to new industry estate and developing country, currently, emergency respond sluggish and wrong decision making always happened, which have induced great loss to life safety, economic development and environment. Thus, study for emergency response and group decision making method has important meaning. Now, group decision making has achieved a great deal research productions, yet which can be fit for application of emergency response to technology hazard is still limited. Therefore, by theory study of technology hazard, the dissertation concludes the main characters of technology hazard emergency decision making, and constructs the research system for group decision making to response technology hazard.
(1) Current experiment studies on group decision making seldom deal with the problem of generating decision scenario, however, it is the first step to actualize emergency response for technology hazard emergency decision making. Based on Case-based Reasoning, dissertation will study how to generate the decision making scenario for technology hazard emergency response. It uses Integrate Superiority Degree to resolve the question that current case retrieval strategies can't identify the source case which match with target problem negatively, and then it adopts self-adapting control method to adjust the obtained scenario, and generates the scenario set for technology hazard emergency group decision making. The method is applied into generating the emergency scenarios for gas explosion accident in coal mine, and is approved to be reliability.
(2) For the characters of technology hazard about multi-hazard deriving and second hazard happing, and the induced difficult problem for emergency decision, dissertation proposes the partial group decision making method, which allows decision individuals to evaluate emergency scenario set selectivity based on their domain knowledge. According to resolving the key issues of distributing decision scenarios to experts, assigning weights and concentrating group preferences, a partial group decision model is proposed. Especially, by using the scenario partial weights given from experts, the model will get the whole solution for attribute, scenario and expert weights, thus the decision is objective comparatively. The method is used to make a group decision for emergency evacuation in metro fire accident, and it is approved to be validity.
(3) For another character of technology about multi-stage evolvement, dissertation also studies multi-stage emergency group decision making method. Under the situation that decision expert can't make sure of some scenarios during decision procedure, the method allows experts to give the scenario preference with uncomplete judgement matrix, Morever, since technology hazard emergency decision making needs broad domain knowledge, and the importance of experts' opinions are different from each other in every stage, thus, multi-stage emergency group decision making model resolves the problem of assigning expert weights in each step too. At last, the method is applied to deal with dangerous chemical liquid benzene leaking.
(4) After that, dissertation will evaluate the efficiency of emergency group decision making for technology hazard. The emergency group decision making effect can't be evaluated because of the difference in decision environment and decision goal. To resolve that problem, dissertation constructs a goal programming model to assign each decision item an individual criterion system. Then from the point of decision effect, it evaluates the efficiency emergency group decision making by surrogate on the base of identifying decision individual character, therefore, the method has the function of analysis, which can provide suggestions to improve the efficiency of emergency group decision making. The method is applied to evaluate the group decision making efficiency in metro fire accident evacuation.
(5) Be based upon those studies on technology hazard theories and emergency group decision making, according to designing system framework and functions, dissertation finally develops the emergency group decision making support system for technology hazard emergency response by Java and Internet technology. With the functions of system management and the monitor disaster situation, the system can make experts actualize real time decision making and feedback information for emergency response under the net environment, by which the optimal of group decision making will be obtained, and then the decision efficiency and quality will be improved to respond technology hazard.
引文
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