异质性劳动力流动与中国地区收入差距：理论与实证
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摘要
劳动力空间流动与区域收入差距之间的关系,是经济学研究的一个重要论题。迄今国内外围绕这个论题的研究成果,大多都有个或明或暗的假定条件,即假定流动劳动力之间没有任何差异。现实世界并非如此,现实世界中,流动劳动力的异质性是个普遍现象,流动劳动力之间不仅存在性别、年龄、体力与智力等差异,而且存在文化程度、劳动技能乃至观念等差异,后者无疑会引出流动劳动力的制度约束以致区域流动模式的差异,进而通过区域经济的空间分化影响地区之间的收入差距。本文目的,就在于引入流动劳动力的异质性条件,就劳动力流动对地区收入差距的影响进行理论分析与实证检验。这样一种研究的理论及现实意义在于,通过构建异质性劳动力流动与地区收入差距的空间均衡模型,系统地梳理出两者之间的内在作用机理,以便在新经济地理学框架下进一步拓展研究空间。从劳动力流动与地区收入差距的内生关系入手,可望就有关的政府政策措施提出若干评判。
理论分析构成本文的基础部分,基于新经济地理学的分析框架以及人力资本的外部性,本文构建了一个反映异质性劳动力流动、产业集聚与地区收入差距三个变量之间内生关系的模型。由于引入流动劳动力的异质性,模型修正了以往关于劳动力流动与产业集聚的空间均衡条件,并由此引出地区收入差距论题。借助于这个模型,本文对以下几个变量的关系做了理论分析:首先是异质性劳动力流动与产业集聚的关系。由于存在规模报酬递增、不完全晚争市场以及人力资本的外部性,高技能劳动力流动所引致的集聚向心力大于低技能劳动力流动。当运输成本不断下降时,高技能劳动力流动可率先获得集聚的动力,产业向某个地区集聚起来,这时集聚地区工资水平不断上升,市场容量不断增大,产业集聚水平提高,形成核心—外围的稳定均衡。随着运输成本的进一步下降,低技能劳动力流动也可引发产业集聚效应;其次是产业集聚与地区收入差距的关系。对不同均衡状态的福利分析表明,核心地区收入水平高于外围地区,核心与外围地区之间存在一定的收入差距。当运输成本下降时,产业布局由最初的均匀对称分布向完全集聚演变,这种空间均衡状态的变化与社会福利最大化基本保持一致。而在完全集聚的核心—外围结构中,核心地区由于可享有多样化的工业消费品以及低运输成本,人均收入水平高于外围地区,核心与外围地区之间存在一定的收入差距;最后分析了异质劳动力的流动性与地区收入差距的关系。如果限制低技能劳动力区域流动,高技能劳动力的流动将促进地区产业集聚,同时这种局部集聚将扩大地区之间的收入差距;如果限制高技能劳动力区域流动,低技能劳动力流动仅能导致较低水平的产业集聚,但是可以缓解地区之间的收入差距。
实证研究利用中国的省域数据主要考察了异质性劳动力流动、产业集聚与地区收入差距几个变量之间的关系。首先将异质性劳动力流动所引致的循环累积因果效应分解成两种易于检验的关联效应——前向关联效应和后向关联效应,具体地说就是检验劳动力迁移是否受地区市场容量的影响、地区异质性劳动力的工资水平是否由该地区市场容量所决定,地区市场容量可通过市场潜力指数反映。其次,通过纵向考察我国近年来工业集聚以及地区收入差距的变动趋势,对产业集聚与地区收入差距进行相关性分析。
实证分析得出的主要结论是:中国劳动力流动受到地区市场潜力以及地区高技能劳动力存量的双重影响,市场潜力指数越大、高技能劳动力存量越大的地区,劳动力迁入的概率越高,从而证实异质性劳动力流动与产业集聚存在前向关联效应;异质性劳动力流动与产业集聚的后向关联效应也得到证实,而且这种效应有逐步增强的趋势。市场潜力指数越大、需求越高的地区,劳动力工资水平也越高。与低技能劳动力相比,高技能劳动力工资水平与地区市场潜力的关联效应更强;我国工业尤其是高技术产业向东部沿海地区集聚程度不断加深,同时沿海与内陆地区之间的收入差距有逐步扩大之势,收入差距的主要来源是沿海与内陆之间的差距,产业集聚程度与地区收入差距之间表现为显著的相关性。
最后对我国异质性劳动力流动与地区收入变化的前景作出判断,并针对可能存在的问题提出相应的对策和建议。
The relationship between migration and regional income disparity has been an important topic for the economic research. So far, most of the literature on this topic has made the same assumption that is the labor homogeneity. However, that is not the case. In reality, labor heterogeneity is a common phenomenon. Labor heterogeneity lies in gender, age, physical force, mentality and concept, as well as education and skill. These differences undoubtly would cause the differences in the institutions and regional migration patterns that the migrating labor face, which affects the regional income disparity through the regional economic spatial disparity. This paper attempts to analyze the effect of the heterogeneous labor migration on the regional income disparity theoretically and empirically by introducing the labor homogeneity. The theoretical meaning of this paper is to illustrate the internal mechanisms between the heterogeneous labor migration and the regional income disparity by constructing a spatial equilibrium model of them. The research area about the new economic geography is developed. The empirical meaning of this paper is to properly understand the internal relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration and the regional income disparity and provide some policy instructions to the government on the regional economic plan and labor migration.
Theoretical research is the basis of this paper. Based on the new economic geography, this paper constructs an endogenous model about the heterogeneous labor migration, agglomeration and regional income disparity. Due to the introduction of labor heterogeneity, the spatial equilibrium condition which was in previous studies for the heterogeneous labor migration and agglomeration has changed and cased the regional disparity. Based on this model, this paper analyzes the following relationships: First, the relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration and agglomeration is analyzed. The skilled migration generates stronger agglomeration forces than the unskilled. When the transport cost reduces, due to increasing return, monopolistic competition and human capital externalities, the skilled obtain the agglomeration forces in the first place and the industry agglomerates in the same place. The wage in this place increases and the market potential rises as well, which in turn promotes the industrial agglomeration and eventually become a core-periphery equilibrium. With the transport cost reducing, the unskilled can also generate the agglomeration effects. Second, the relationship between agglomeratin and regional income disparity is analyzed. The welfare analysis on different equilibriums conditions shows that the income in the core is higher than the periphery and there exists the income distance between the core and the periphery. When the transport cost reduces, the industrial distribution changes from the symmetry to the agglomeration, which is consistent with the social welfare maximum. While under the core-periphery condition, because of the variety of the manufacturing products and low transport cost, the income per worker is higher in the core than in the periphery and there exists the income gap between the core and the periphery. Third, this paper also analyzes the effect of the heterogeneous labor migration on the regional income disparity. If the unskilled mobility is prohibited, then the skilled migration will result in local agglomeration and widens the regional income disparity. On the contrary, if the skilled mobility is prohibited, then the unskilled migration will result in the low-level agglomeration and alleviate the regional income disparity.
Empirically, this paper examines the relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration, agglomeration and the regional income disparity by using the provincial level data in China. Firstly, we divide the circular effects caused by the heterogeneous migration into forward and backward linkage effects. This is aims to analyze whether the migration is affected by the regional market size and whether the heterogeneous labor wage level is determined by the regional market size, which can be measured by the local market potential index. Secondly, through examining the recent trend of the industrial agglomeration and regional income disparity in China, we conduct a relevant analysis of the industrial agglomeration and regional income disparity.
The main empirical results are following. The Chinese migration is affected both by the local market potential and the human capital stock. The higher the market potential index and the human capital stock, the higher labor inflow probabilities. This confirms the forward linkage between the heterogeneous migration and agglomeration. The backward linkage between the heterogeneous migration and agglomeration is also confirms. And such effect is on a rising trend. The higher the market potential index and local market demand, the higher labor wages. The linkage between the skilled wage level and the local market potential is stronger than the unskilled wage level. Moreover, more and more industries, especially the hi-tech industries, agglomerate in the East. And the income disparity between the inland and the coast is increasing. The main source of this disparity is the gap between the inland and the coast. The industrial agglomeration and the regional disparity appear to be highly correlated.
Finally, this paper illustrates the general trends of heterogeneous migration and regional income, and also provides some policy implications and suggestions.
理论分析构成本文的基础部分,基于新经济地理学的分析框架以及人力资本的外部性,本文构建了一个反映异质性劳动力流动、产业集聚与地区收入差距三个变量之间内生关系的模型。由于引入流动劳动力的异质性,模型修正了以往关于劳动力流动与产业集聚的空间均衡条件,并由此引出地区收入差距论题。借助于这个模型,本文对以下几个变量的关系做了理论分析:首先是异质性劳动力流动与产业集聚的关系。由于存在规模报酬递增、不完全晚争市场以及人力资本的外部性,高技能劳动力流动所引致的集聚向心力大于低技能劳动力流动。当运输成本不断下降时,高技能劳动力流动可率先获得集聚的动力,产业向某个地区集聚起来,这时集聚地区工资水平不断上升,市场容量不断增大,产业集聚水平提高,形成核心—外围的稳定均衡。随着运输成本的进一步下降,低技能劳动力流动也可引发产业集聚效应;其次是产业集聚与地区收入差距的关系。对不同均衡状态的福利分析表明,核心地区收入水平高于外围地区,核心与外围地区之间存在一定的收入差距。当运输成本下降时,产业布局由最初的均匀对称分布向完全集聚演变,这种空间均衡状态的变化与社会福利最大化基本保持一致。而在完全集聚的核心—外围结构中,核心地区由于可享有多样化的工业消费品以及低运输成本,人均收入水平高于外围地区,核心与外围地区之间存在一定的收入差距;最后分析了异质劳动力的流动性与地区收入差距的关系。如果限制低技能劳动力区域流动,高技能劳动力的流动将促进地区产业集聚,同时这种局部集聚将扩大地区之间的收入差距;如果限制高技能劳动力区域流动,低技能劳动力流动仅能导致较低水平的产业集聚,但是可以缓解地区之间的收入差距。
实证研究利用中国的省域数据主要考察了异质性劳动力流动、产业集聚与地区收入差距几个变量之间的关系。首先将异质性劳动力流动所引致的循环累积因果效应分解成两种易于检验的关联效应——前向关联效应和后向关联效应,具体地说就是检验劳动力迁移是否受地区市场容量的影响、地区异质性劳动力的工资水平是否由该地区市场容量所决定,地区市场容量可通过市场潜力指数反映。其次,通过纵向考察我国近年来工业集聚以及地区收入差距的变动趋势,对产业集聚与地区收入差距进行相关性分析。
实证分析得出的主要结论是:中国劳动力流动受到地区市场潜力以及地区高技能劳动力存量的双重影响,市场潜力指数越大、高技能劳动力存量越大的地区,劳动力迁入的概率越高,从而证实异质性劳动力流动与产业集聚存在前向关联效应;异质性劳动力流动与产业集聚的后向关联效应也得到证实,而且这种效应有逐步增强的趋势。市场潜力指数越大、需求越高的地区,劳动力工资水平也越高。与低技能劳动力相比,高技能劳动力工资水平与地区市场潜力的关联效应更强;我国工业尤其是高技术产业向东部沿海地区集聚程度不断加深,同时沿海与内陆地区之间的收入差距有逐步扩大之势,收入差距的主要来源是沿海与内陆之间的差距,产业集聚程度与地区收入差距之间表现为显著的相关性。
最后对我国异质性劳动力流动与地区收入变化的前景作出判断,并针对可能存在的问题提出相应的对策和建议。
The relationship between migration and regional income disparity has been an important topic for the economic research. So far, most of the literature on this topic has made the same assumption that is the labor homogeneity. However, that is not the case. In reality, labor heterogeneity is a common phenomenon. Labor heterogeneity lies in gender, age, physical force, mentality and concept, as well as education and skill. These differences undoubtly would cause the differences in the institutions and regional migration patterns that the migrating labor face, which affects the regional income disparity through the regional economic spatial disparity. This paper attempts to analyze the effect of the heterogeneous labor migration on the regional income disparity theoretically and empirically by introducing the labor homogeneity. The theoretical meaning of this paper is to illustrate the internal mechanisms between the heterogeneous labor migration and the regional income disparity by constructing a spatial equilibrium model of them. The research area about the new economic geography is developed. The empirical meaning of this paper is to properly understand the internal relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration and the regional income disparity and provide some policy instructions to the government on the regional economic plan and labor migration.
Theoretical research is the basis of this paper. Based on the new economic geography, this paper constructs an endogenous model about the heterogeneous labor migration, agglomeration and regional income disparity. Due to the introduction of labor heterogeneity, the spatial equilibrium condition which was in previous studies for the heterogeneous labor migration and agglomeration has changed and cased the regional disparity. Based on this model, this paper analyzes the following relationships: First, the relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration and agglomeration is analyzed. The skilled migration generates stronger agglomeration forces than the unskilled. When the transport cost reduces, due to increasing return, monopolistic competition and human capital externalities, the skilled obtain the agglomeration forces in the first place and the industry agglomerates in the same place. The wage in this place increases and the market potential rises as well, which in turn promotes the industrial agglomeration and eventually become a core-periphery equilibrium. With the transport cost reducing, the unskilled can also generate the agglomeration effects. Second, the relationship between agglomeratin and regional income disparity is analyzed. The welfare analysis on different equilibriums conditions shows that the income in the core is higher than the periphery and there exists the income distance between the core and the periphery. When the transport cost reduces, the industrial distribution changes from the symmetry to the agglomeration, which is consistent with the social welfare maximum. While under the core-periphery condition, because of the variety of the manufacturing products and low transport cost, the income per worker is higher in the core than in the periphery and there exists the income gap between the core and the periphery. Third, this paper also analyzes the effect of the heterogeneous labor migration on the regional income disparity. If the unskilled mobility is prohibited, then the skilled migration will result in local agglomeration and widens the regional income disparity. On the contrary, if the skilled mobility is prohibited, then the unskilled migration will result in the low-level agglomeration and alleviate the regional income disparity.
Empirically, this paper examines the relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration, agglomeration and the regional income disparity by using the provincial level data in China. Firstly, we divide the circular effects caused by the heterogeneous migration into forward and backward linkage effects. This is aims to analyze whether the migration is affected by the regional market size and whether the heterogeneous labor wage level is determined by the regional market size, which can be measured by the local market potential index. Secondly, through examining the recent trend of the industrial agglomeration and regional income disparity in China, we conduct a relevant analysis of the industrial agglomeration and regional income disparity.
The main empirical results are following. The Chinese migration is affected both by the local market potential and the human capital stock. The higher the market potential index and the human capital stock, the higher labor inflow probabilities. This confirms the forward linkage between the heterogeneous migration and agglomeration. The backward linkage between the heterogeneous migration and agglomeration is also confirms. And such effect is on a rising trend. The higher the market potential index and local market demand, the higher labor wages. The linkage between the skilled wage level and the local market potential is stronger than the unskilled wage level. Moreover, more and more industries, especially the hi-tech industries, agglomerate in the East. And the income disparity between the inland and the coast is increasing. The main source of this disparity is the gap between the inland and the coast. The industrial agglomeration and the regional disparity appear to be highly correlated.
Finally, this paper illustrates the general trends of heterogeneous migration and regional income, and also provides some policy implications and suggestions.
引文
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