与气候变化相关的贸易措施研究
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摘要
应对气候变化逐渐成为世界各国经济、政治、外交博弈的焦点之一,同时,发达国家制定的严格气候规制引发了其国内对国际竞争力可能受损的担忧。于是“污染避难所”理论被应用于分析气候规制对国际贸易的影响,并引申出竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题。在此背景下,一些与气候变化相关的贸易措施为发达国家所提出和采用,迄今为止最受关注的主要有“碳关税”、欧盟航空减排措施和产品碳标识,未来还可能出现其他新的类型。与气候变化相关贸易措施的历史虽然不长,但会对气候谈判和国际贸易产生巨大影响。作为21世纪我国面临的新问题,与气候变化相关贸易措施包含着许多前沿的理论问题,而且我国既是出口第一大国也是温室气体排放最多的国家,受这些贸易措施的影响势必最大,因此对其研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文将首先分析与气候变化相关贸易措施的由来和推动因素,并实证检验作为最直接理由的竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题；然后依次研究现有三种措施的具体规定、合法性、影响以及未来趋势；最后提出我国应对与气候变化相关贸易措施的政策建议。全文共分七章,各章主要内容如下：
第一章为绪论。本章将阐述文章的选题背景和意义,并对国内外相关研究现状进行系统梳理,进而介绍本文的研究思路和研究方法,最后提出文章的主要创新点和不足之处。
第二章分析与气候变化相关贸易措施的由来和推动因素。这类贸易措施主要是为了解决发达国家关于竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题的担忧,而更重要的推动因素还来自国际和国内两个层面。就国际层面而言,推动因素包括WTO对环境保护的重视、温室气体排放责任划分的缺陷以及气候谈判斗争的需要；国内层面则是发达国家内部部分利益集团的推动。
第三章实证检验竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题的严重程度。这两个问题的实质就是严格气候规制对国际投资和国际贸易产生的负面影响。为此,本章引入了衡量各国气候规制强弱的CCPI指数、CLIMI指数和C3-I指数,建立了投资区位选择模型和贸易引力模型,并利用2008-2011年的面板数据对这种负面影响进行实证检验。实证结果并没有发现负面影响的证据,虽然不能就此断定竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题并不存在,但是至少说明这两个问题在经验证据上是非常值得怀疑的。
第四章专门研究“碳关税”。欧盟和美国对“碳关税”的讨论已有多年,最受关注的问题就是该措施是否符合WTO规则,但这仍是一个悬而未决的问题。目前“碳关税”尚未实施,就已经对共同但有区别责任原则形成冲击,而一旦征收我国外贸必将遭受严重影响。考虑到面临的诸多障碍,“碳关税”短期内不会真正实施,不过发达国家并未放弃相关努力,未来“碳关税”的设计细节可能出现一些新变化。
第五章专门研究欧盟航空减排措施。该措施遭到了国际社会的强烈反对,欧委会已经提议将其冻结一年。措施的合法性也受到了广泛质疑,美国航空企业甚至将其告上法院,不过欧洲法院裁定欧盟对航空排放的立法符合国际法。如果欧盟航空减排措施按原计划实施,我国航空业和对欧出口都将受到较大冲击。而且该措施己经对国际民航组织主导的航空减排谈判产生了重大影响,其未来发展将很大程度上取决于2013年国际民航组织大会的结果。
第六章专门研究产品碳标识。目前实施的产品碳标识都属于自愿性质,不过法国有意建立强制性产品碳标识,而这将违背WTO相关规则。产品碳标识有助于引导消费偏好转向低碳产品,同时也会削弱发展中国家产品竞争力。未来产品碳标识将在曲折中继续发展,但是强制性产品碳标识真正出台的可能性不大。
第七章探讨我国应对的政策建议。为最大程度降低与气候变化相关贸易措施的负面影响,我国可采取如下应对策略：坚持气候变化相关问题在《联合国气候变化框架公约》下解决；反对气候谈判中的单边贸易措施；若贸易措施不可避免,必须体现共同但有区别责任原则；变压力为动力推动对外贸易低碳化。
How to respond to climate change has been gradually becoming one of the focuses of the economic, political and diplomatic games for the international community. At the same time, ambitious climate policies in developed countries have evoked concerns about the damage to the international competitiveness for domestic industries. Therefore, the "Pollution Haven Theory" has been applied to analyze the impact of climate policies on the international trade, and has given rise to the issue of competitiveness and carbon leakage. In this context, a number of trade measures related to climate change have been proposed and taken by some developed countries. Among these measures,"Carbon Tariff", Inclusion of Aviation in EU ETS and Product Carbon Labeling have received enormous attention, and other new types may also come into being in the future. Although the history of these three trade measures is not very long, they have exerted a huge impact on climate negotiations and international trade. As a newly emerging problem for China in the21st century, the trade measures related to climate change involve a series of theoretical issues. Besides, since China is the biggest exporter of goods as well as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, it will be greatly influenced by these trade measures. Therefore, the study of the trade measures related to climate change carries great theoretical and practical significance. This dissertation will first analyze the causes and motivating factors of such measures and make an empirical test on the most direct reasons----the competitiveness and carbon leakage issues. And then it will discuss regulations, legitimacy, impacts and future trends of three existing measures respectively. Finally, it will provide policy recommendations for China. The dissertation consists of seven chapters and the main contents are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter starts with the background and significance of the dissertation, gives related literature reviews afterwards, followed by introducing the research thoughts and applied methods, and ends with the main innovations and inadequacies.
The second chapter is about the causes and motivating factors of the trade measures related to climate change. These trade measures are mainly put forward to relieve the developed countries of their worries about competitiveness and carbon leakage. The more important motivating factors come from both the international level and the domestic level. Internationally speaking, these factors include the attention that WTO pays to environment protection, the problems of assigning responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and "a big stick" for developing countries in the climate negotiations, while the domestic ones include the motivation of the various interest groups inside the developed countries.
The third chapter empirically analyzes the severity of the competitiveness and carbon leakage issues. The essence of these issues is whether ambitious climate policies will cause negative influences on international investment and trade. This is why this chapter introduces the CCPI index, CLIMI index and C3-I Index, which quantify countries'strength of climate policies, and establishes a location choice model and a gravity model with the panel date during the period2008-2011to explore such negative relationship. The empirical tests do not show any proof of negative impacts, which as a whole cannot rule out the possibility of competitiveness and carbon leakage issues, though it leads to serious doubts of empirical proofs of the these two issues.
The fourth chapter makes a special study of "Carbon Tariff". The European Union and the United States have been discussing this measure for many years. The most concerned issue is whether this policy is consistent with WTO rules, which is still an open question until now."Carbon Tariff" has not been implemented yet, however, it has challenged the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR). Besides,"Carbon Tariff", if introduced, would hurt China's exports badly. Although it will not be implemented in the short term because of various obstacles, developed countries will not give up, and new changes to the detailed designs might arise in the future.
The fifth chapter analyzes Inclusion of Aviation in the EU ETS. There has been strong opposition to this measure, and the European Commission has proposed to suspend it for one year. Its legitimacy has also been widely questioned, and some US airlines and their trade association have brought a suit against it, but the European Court of Justice confirmed that the EU's legislation on aviation emissions was compatible with the international law. If it was applied as planned, China's aviation industry and exports to the EU would be tremendously affected. What's more, the measure made by EU has had a far-reaching impact on the progress of ICAO's work underway to address international civil aviation emissions. And its future will depend largely on the outcome of ICAO General Assembly in2013.
The sixth chapter talks about the Products Carbon Labeling. All the existing Product Carbon Labeling is voluntary, but France intends to establish a mandatory labeling scheme, which would probably go against the WTO rules. Product Carbon Labeling may contribute to shifts in consumer preferences towards low-carbon goods, and thus it will weaken the competitiveness of products from developing countries. In the future, Product Carbon Labeling will develop circuitously, but it is unlikely to see it become mandatory.
The seventh chapter presents the policy recommendations for China. In order to minimize the negative impacts of these trade measures, China may take the following strategies:sticking to resolving issues related to climate change under UNFCCC, opposing unilateral trade measures in future climate negotiations, ensuring consistency with the CBDR principle if trade measures are inevitable and turning pressure into motivation to promote low-carbon foreign trade.
第一章为绪论。本章将阐述文章的选题背景和意义,并对国内外相关研究现状进行系统梳理,进而介绍本文的研究思路和研究方法,最后提出文章的主要创新点和不足之处。
第二章分析与气候变化相关贸易措施的由来和推动因素。这类贸易措施主要是为了解决发达国家关于竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题的担忧,而更重要的推动因素还来自国际和国内两个层面。就国际层面而言,推动因素包括WTO对环境保护的重视、温室气体排放责任划分的缺陷以及气候谈判斗争的需要；国内层面则是发达国家内部部分利益集团的推动。
第三章实证检验竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题的严重程度。这两个问题的实质就是严格气候规制对国际投资和国际贸易产生的负面影响。为此,本章引入了衡量各国气候规制强弱的CCPI指数、CLIMI指数和C3-I指数,建立了投资区位选择模型和贸易引力模型,并利用2008-2011年的面板数据对这种负面影响进行实证检验。实证结果并没有发现负面影响的证据,虽然不能就此断定竞争力问题和碳泄漏问题并不存在,但是至少说明这两个问题在经验证据上是非常值得怀疑的。
第四章专门研究“碳关税”。欧盟和美国对“碳关税”的讨论已有多年,最受关注的问题就是该措施是否符合WTO规则,但这仍是一个悬而未决的问题。目前“碳关税”尚未实施,就已经对共同但有区别责任原则形成冲击,而一旦征收我国外贸必将遭受严重影响。考虑到面临的诸多障碍,“碳关税”短期内不会真正实施,不过发达国家并未放弃相关努力,未来“碳关税”的设计细节可能出现一些新变化。
第五章专门研究欧盟航空减排措施。该措施遭到了国际社会的强烈反对,欧委会已经提议将其冻结一年。措施的合法性也受到了广泛质疑,美国航空企业甚至将其告上法院,不过欧洲法院裁定欧盟对航空排放的立法符合国际法。如果欧盟航空减排措施按原计划实施,我国航空业和对欧出口都将受到较大冲击。而且该措施己经对国际民航组织主导的航空减排谈判产生了重大影响,其未来发展将很大程度上取决于2013年国际民航组织大会的结果。
第六章专门研究产品碳标识。目前实施的产品碳标识都属于自愿性质,不过法国有意建立强制性产品碳标识,而这将违背WTO相关规则。产品碳标识有助于引导消费偏好转向低碳产品,同时也会削弱发展中国家产品竞争力。未来产品碳标识将在曲折中继续发展,但是强制性产品碳标识真正出台的可能性不大。
第七章探讨我国应对的政策建议。为最大程度降低与气候变化相关贸易措施的负面影响,我国可采取如下应对策略：坚持气候变化相关问题在《联合国气候变化框架公约》下解决；反对气候谈判中的单边贸易措施；若贸易措施不可避免,必须体现共同但有区别责任原则；变压力为动力推动对外贸易低碳化。
How to respond to climate change has been gradually becoming one of the focuses of the economic, political and diplomatic games for the international community. At the same time, ambitious climate policies in developed countries have evoked concerns about the damage to the international competitiveness for domestic industries. Therefore, the "Pollution Haven Theory" has been applied to analyze the impact of climate policies on the international trade, and has given rise to the issue of competitiveness and carbon leakage. In this context, a number of trade measures related to climate change have been proposed and taken by some developed countries. Among these measures,"Carbon Tariff", Inclusion of Aviation in EU ETS and Product Carbon Labeling have received enormous attention, and other new types may also come into being in the future. Although the history of these three trade measures is not very long, they have exerted a huge impact on climate negotiations and international trade. As a newly emerging problem for China in the21st century, the trade measures related to climate change involve a series of theoretical issues. Besides, since China is the biggest exporter of goods as well as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, it will be greatly influenced by these trade measures. Therefore, the study of the trade measures related to climate change carries great theoretical and practical significance. This dissertation will first analyze the causes and motivating factors of such measures and make an empirical test on the most direct reasons----the competitiveness and carbon leakage issues. And then it will discuss regulations, legitimacy, impacts and future trends of three existing measures respectively. Finally, it will provide policy recommendations for China. The dissertation consists of seven chapters and the main contents are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter starts with the background and significance of the dissertation, gives related literature reviews afterwards, followed by introducing the research thoughts and applied methods, and ends with the main innovations and inadequacies.
The second chapter is about the causes and motivating factors of the trade measures related to climate change. These trade measures are mainly put forward to relieve the developed countries of their worries about competitiveness and carbon leakage. The more important motivating factors come from both the international level and the domestic level. Internationally speaking, these factors include the attention that WTO pays to environment protection, the problems of assigning responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and "a big stick" for developing countries in the climate negotiations, while the domestic ones include the motivation of the various interest groups inside the developed countries.
The third chapter empirically analyzes the severity of the competitiveness and carbon leakage issues. The essence of these issues is whether ambitious climate policies will cause negative influences on international investment and trade. This is why this chapter introduces the CCPI index, CLIMI index and C3-I Index, which quantify countries'strength of climate policies, and establishes a location choice model and a gravity model with the panel date during the period2008-2011to explore such negative relationship. The empirical tests do not show any proof of negative impacts, which as a whole cannot rule out the possibility of competitiveness and carbon leakage issues, though it leads to serious doubts of empirical proofs of the these two issues.
The fourth chapter makes a special study of "Carbon Tariff". The European Union and the United States have been discussing this measure for many years. The most concerned issue is whether this policy is consistent with WTO rules, which is still an open question until now."Carbon Tariff" has not been implemented yet, however, it has challenged the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR). Besides,"Carbon Tariff", if introduced, would hurt China's exports badly. Although it will not be implemented in the short term because of various obstacles, developed countries will not give up, and new changes to the detailed designs might arise in the future.
The fifth chapter analyzes Inclusion of Aviation in the EU ETS. There has been strong opposition to this measure, and the European Commission has proposed to suspend it for one year. Its legitimacy has also been widely questioned, and some US airlines and their trade association have brought a suit against it, but the European Court of Justice confirmed that the EU's legislation on aviation emissions was compatible with the international law. If it was applied as planned, China's aviation industry and exports to the EU would be tremendously affected. What's more, the measure made by EU has had a far-reaching impact on the progress of ICAO's work underway to address international civil aviation emissions. And its future will depend largely on the outcome of ICAO General Assembly in2013.
The sixth chapter talks about the Products Carbon Labeling. All the existing Product Carbon Labeling is voluntary, but France intends to establish a mandatory labeling scheme, which would probably go against the WTO rules. Product Carbon Labeling may contribute to shifts in consumer preferences towards low-carbon goods, and thus it will weaken the competitiveness of products from developing countries. In the future, Product Carbon Labeling will develop circuitously, but it is unlikely to see it become mandatory.
The seventh chapter presents the policy recommendations for China. In order to minimize the negative impacts of these trade measures, China may take the following strategies:sticking to resolving issues related to climate change under UNFCCC, opposing unilateral trade measures in future climate negotiations, ensuring consistency with the CBDR principle if trade measures are inevitable and turning pressure into motivation to promote low-carbon foreign trade.
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