梯级水库汛期分期及汛限水位合理确定研究
|
摘要
如何改变现行设计过于保守的汛限水位,是实现洪水资源化的一个有效途径,也是当前的一个研究热点,但目前的研究对象多为一个水库,本文结合汉江上游石泉、喜河梯级水库,首先进行了洪水规律分析,在此基础上,对梯级水库的主汛期分期进行了研究,并计算不同分期的汛限水位,进而进行基于汛期分期汛限水位的梯级水库洪水联合调度研究,根据洪水调节结果和水库电站的设计资料确定梯级水库分期汛限水位较合理的组合。论文的主要研究成果如下:
(1)采用O.618法划分洪水洪峰流量量级,对石泉、喜河水库实测的入库洪水资料进行概率分析,确定各量级洪水的月、旬分布规律和年可能发生次数及相应的概率,为水库主汛期分期和各分期汛限水位的确定提供理论依据;
(2)确定了石泉、喜河水库在主汛期的分期及相应时段。根据水库主汛期每年第一场洪水发生时间和最后一场洪水结束时间的概率分布,采用模糊统计分析理论,对梯级水库的主汛期进行分期,得出各分期时段;由梯级水库特性资料,拟合水库的汛期隶属度函数,计算主汛期各分期时段的汛限水位,然后采用“跨期选样法”修正梯级水库的分期汛限水位;
(3)对石泉水库的防洪能力进行复核。石泉水库的特性资料由于受库容淤积等因素的影响发生了一定的改变,结合水库的设计洪水资料和现有的运行方式,采用新的特性资料对水库的防洪、蓄泄能力进行了复核,结果表明,淤积不影响水库的防洪安全。
(4)采用洪水地区组成原理,确定了梯级水库汛期分期下的汛限水位合理组合方式。根据水库各分期汛限水位和梯级水库设计洪水的两种洪水频率组合对梯级水库不同分期的汛限水位组合进行了调节运算,按照水库运行兼顾兴利较大和风险较小的原则,确定梯级水库联合运行较合理的汛限水位组合;同时可以发现,梯级水库联合运行存在风险传递特性。
(5)建立梯级水库防洪库容最小模型,采用逐步优化算法(POA)和逐次逼近动态规划(DPSA),根据梯级水库分期汛限水位计算结果,进行梯级水库的联合优化调度研究,为更好的进行梯级水库联合运行提供理论依据。
An effective way to realize floodwater utilization is to change the conservative design limited water level, on which a research focuses redently. But now only single reservoir was studied. The Shiquan, Xihe reservoir on upstream of Hanjiang were researched in this paper. Firstly the flood law was analyzed, the flood season staging was put forward, and the corresponding food control level was computed. Then the joint operation of flood of Shiquan, Xihe reservoir were studied, and the reasonable combination of flood season staging of cascade reservoirs were given. Then main contributions were as follows:
(1) The Golden-section algorithm was used to compartmentalize the peak discharge, the inflow flood data of Shiquan, Xihe reservoir were analyzed by the probability statistic theory, the corresponding probability of flood distribution law of month, ten days and the times of annual probable were computed. All the results provided certain theoretical basis for the flood seasons division and the computation of each stage limited water level.
(2) The main flood season of Shiquan, Xihe reservoirs were divided and the corresponding periods were got. According to the probability distribution of the occurring time of the first flood and the ending time of the final flood from July to September, the Fuzzy Statistic Analysis was used to divide the main flood season of cascade reservoirs, and the each stage period was got.By fitting the flood season membership functions according to the each stage period and the characteristic data of cascade reservoirs, the limited water level of each stage period were computed, and the flood seasons partition scheme was used to correct the each stage period limited water level.
(3) The flood control capacity of Shiquan reservoir was checked. The characteristic data of Shiquan reservoir has changed which influenced by some factors as reservoir sedimentation. Combining the design flood data and the actual operation rules, the flood control capacity and the storage-outflow capacity of Shiquan reservoir were checked by adopting the new characteristic data. The results shows that the flood control safety was not influenced by reservoir sedimentation
(4) By the flood region composition theory, the reasonable combination of limited water level under cascade reservoirs was put forward. According to each stage limited water level and the two flood frequency combination of cascade reservoirs, the different combination of limited water level of cascade reservoirs were calculated. In terms of the benefit maximization and risk minimum principle, the reasonable combination of limited water level under cascade reservoirs was put forward, and the risk transfer characteristics of cascade reservoirs operation could be found.
(5) The flood control capacity maximization model was established, POA and DPSA arithmetic were applied to study the flood joint optimal operation of cascade reservoirs, which would provide some theoretical basis for the joint operation of cascade reservoirs.
(1)采用O.618法划分洪水洪峰流量量级,对石泉、喜河水库实测的入库洪水资料进行概率分析,确定各量级洪水的月、旬分布规律和年可能发生次数及相应的概率,为水库主汛期分期和各分期汛限水位的确定提供理论依据;
(2)确定了石泉、喜河水库在主汛期的分期及相应时段。根据水库主汛期每年第一场洪水发生时间和最后一场洪水结束时间的概率分布,采用模糊统计分析理论,对梯级水库的主汛期进行分期,得出各分期时段;由梯级水库特性资料,拟合水库的汛期隶属度函数,计算主汛期各分期时段的汛限水位,然后采用“跨期选样法”修正梯级水库的分期汛限水位;
(3)对石泉水库的防洪能力进行复核。石泉水库的特性资料由于受库容淤积等因素的影响发生了一定的改变,结合水库的设计洪水资料和现有的运行方式,采用新的特性资料对水库的防洪、蓄泄能力进行了复核,结果表明,淤积不影响水库的防洪安全。
(4)采用洪水地区组成原理,确定了梯级水库汛期分期下的汛限水位合理组合方式。根据水库各分期汛限水位和梯级水库设计洪水的两种洪水频率组合对梯级水库不同分期的汛限水位组合进行了调节运算,按照水库运行兼顾兴利较大和风险较小的原则,确定梯级水库联合运行较合理的汛限水位组合;同时可以发现,梯级水库联合运行存在风险传递特性。
(5)建立梯级水库防洪库容最小模型,采用逐步优化算法(POA)和逐次逼近动态规划(DPSA),根据梯级水库分期汛限水位计算结果,进行梯级水库的联合优化调度研究,为更好的进行梯级水库联合运行提供理论依据。
An effective way to realize floodwater utilization is to change the conservative design limited water level, on which a research focuses redently. But now only single reservoir was studied. The Shiquan, Xihe reservoir on upstream of Hanjiang were researched in this paper. Firstly the flood law was analyzed, the flood season staging was put forward, and the corresponding food control level was computed. Then the joint operation of flood of Shiquan, Xihe reservoir were studied, and the reasonable combination of flood season staging of cascade reservoirs were given. Then main contributions were as follows:
(1) The Golden-section algorithm was used to compartmentalize the peak discharge, the inflow flood data of Shiquan, Xihe reservoir were analyzed by the probability statistic theory, the corresponding probability of flood distribution law of month, ten days and the times of annual probable were computed. All the results provided certain theoretical basis for the flood seasons division and the computation of each stage limited water level.
(2) The main flood season of Shiquan, Xihe reservoirs were divided and the corresponding periods were got. According to the probability distribution of the occurring time of the first flood and the ending time of the final flood from July to September, the Fuzzy Statistic Analysis was used to divide the main flood season of cascade reservoirs, and the each stage period was got.By fitting the flood season membership functions according to the each stage period and the characteristic data of cascade reservoirs, the limited water level of each stage period were computed, and the flood seasons partition scheme was used to correct the each stage period limited water level.
(3) The flood control capacity of Shiquan reservoir was checked. The characteristic data of Shiquan reservoir has changed which influenced by some factors as reservoir sedimentation. Combining the design flood data and the actual operation rules, the flood control capacity and the storage-outflow capacity of Shiquan reservoir were checked by adopting the new characteristic data. The results shows that the flood control safety was not influenced by reservoir sedimentation
(4) By the flood region composition theory, the reasonable combination of limited water level under cascade reservoirs was put forward. According to each stage limited water level and the two flood frequency combination of cascade reservoirs, the different combination of limited water level of cascade reservoirs were calculated. In terms of the benefit maximization and risk minimum principle, the reasonable combination of limited water level under cascade reservoirs was put forward, and the risk transfer characteristics of cascade reservoirs operation could be found.
(5) The flood control capacity maximization model was established, POA and DPSA arithmetic were applied to study the flood joint optimal operation of cascade reservoirs, which would provide some theoretical basis for the joint operation of cascade reservoirs.
引文
[1]中国水利百科全书[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1991
[2]李万绪,魏晓锋.石泉水电站水情自动测报系统简介[J].大坝于安全,2000,1:16-18
[3]Yeh,W.W-G,Becker,L.and Chu,W-S,Real-time hourly reservoir operation,J.Water Resour.Plan.Manage.ASCE,1979,105(2):187-203
[4]Miller,B.A.,A.Whitlock and R.C.Hughes,Flood management-The TVA Experience.Water International,1996,21(3),119-130.
[5]Bla.ck,A.R.and A.Werdtty,Seasonality of flooding:a case study of North Britain.Journal of hydrolofy,1997(195):1-25
[6]Wurbs,R.A.,Modeling and analysis of reservoir system operation,Prentice Hall PTR,Upper Saddle River,1996
[7]包澄澜,王德瀚等.暴雨的分析与预报[M],北京:农业出版社,1981
[8]冯尚友,余敷秋,丹口水库汛期划分及实践效果[J],水利水电技术,1982,13(2):56-61
[9]Cunderlik,J M,Ouarda,T B M J,Bobée B.Determination of flood seasonality from hydrological records[J].Hydrological Sci-ences Journal,2004,49(3),511-526
[10]麻荣永.百色水库洪水规律分析及其分期设计洪水推求[J].红水河,1992,11(2):14-17
[11]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连理工大学出版社,2005
[12]许士国,陈守煜.水文分期描述的模糊统计法[J].大连理工大学学报,1990,30(5):585-589
[13]陈守煌.从研究汛期描述论水文系统模糊集分析的方法论[J].水科学进展,1995,6(2):133-138.
[14]刘秀华,宋君,张志会,王晶清.清河水库汛期分期研究[J].水利水电技术,1999,30(增刊):60-61
[15]郭荣文.龙溪河梯级水电站分期洪水分期运行研究[J].水电站设计,1997,13(4):96-98
[16]敖力布,林鸿溢.分形学导论[M].呼和浩特:内蒙古人民出版社,1996
[17]侯玉,吴伯贤,等.分形理论用于洪水分期的初步探讨[J].水科学进展,1999,10(2):140-143
[18]刘攀,郭生练,李纬,等.变点分析法在隔河岩水库汛期分期中的应用[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(1)8-11
[19]高波,刘克琳,王银堂,胡四一.系统聚类法在水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2005,36(6)1-5
[20]张尧庭,方开泰.多元统计分析引论[M].科学出版社,1982:447-453
[21]丁元芳,高凤丽.Fisher最优分割法在星星哨水库汛期分期划分中的应用[J].吉林水利,2006,11:4-6
[22]刘克琳,王银堂,胡四一,高波.Fisher最优分割法在汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2007.27(3):14-16
[23]HEC-5 simulation of flood control and conservation systems user's manual.U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Hydrologic Engineering Center,Davis,Calif,1982
[24]李会安,黄强,沈晋,等.黄河干流上游梯级水两实时调度自由化模拟模型研究[J].水力发电学报,2000(3):55-60
[25]谢柳青,等.水库群优化调度新思路—逐级模拟复合法[J].湖南水利,1997(1):30-34
[26]J S Windsor,Optimization Model for Reservoir FloodControl[J].Water Resourees Res,1973,9(5),1219-1226
[27]马勇,等.一种基于二扒口分洪运用方式的防洪系统联合运行的大规模LP广义化模型及其应用[J].水利学报,1998(12):34-37
[28]管家宝,虞锦江.梯级水电站洪水优化调度模型[J].水电能源科学,1983,1(1):65-69
[29]谢柳青、易淑珍.水库群防洪系统优化调度模型及应用[J].2002(6):38-42
[30]傅湘,纪昌明.防洪系统最优化调度模型及应用[J].水力学报,1998(5):49-53
[31]G A Sekultz,E J Plate,Developing Operating Rules for Flood Protection Reservoirs,J of Hydrol,1976,28(2/4):245-264
[32]JB.Valdes,K M Strzepek.Aggregation-disaggregation approach to multireservoir operation[J].Water Resources PlanningandManagement,1992,118(4):423-444
[33]H V Vasiliadis,M Karamouz.Demand-driven operation of reservoir using uncertainty-based optimal operating policies[J].Water Resources Planning and Management,1994,120(1):101-114
[34]G L Beekor.MultiobjeetiveAnalysisofMultireservoirOPerations[J].Water Resources Res,1982
[35]S Mohan,D M RaiPure,Multi-objeetive Analtsisof Multi-reservoir System[J].WaterResources Plan Mglnt,1992,118(4):356-370
[36]王本德,周惠成,程春田.梯级水库群防洪系统的多目标洪水调度决策的模糊优选[J].水利学报,1994(2):31-39
[37]贺北方,丁大发,马细霞.多库多目标最优控制运用的模型与方法[J].水利学报,1995(3):84-88.
[38]林翔岳,许丹萍,潘敏贞.综合利用水库群多目标优化调度[J].水科学进展,1992,3(2):112-119
[39]董增川.大系统分解协调原理在水库群优化调度中的应用[M].南京:河海大学,1986
[40]黄志中,周之毫。水库群防洪调度的大系统多目标决策模型研究[J]。水电能源科学。1994,12(4):237-245
[41]王义民.梯级水库洪水调度模式研究—以黄河上游梯级水库防洪调度为例[D].西安理工大学,2004
[42]陈守煌,邱林.水资源系统多目标模糊优选随机动态规划及实例[J].水利学报,1993,(8):43-48
[43]胡铁松,万永华,冯尚友.水库调度智能决策支持系统研究[J].成都科技大学学报,1994(6):39-45
[44]S.A Soliman,G.S Christensen.Application offunctional analysis to 0ptimization of a variable head multireservoir power system for long-term regulation[J].Water Resources Research,1986,22(6):852-858
[45]张雨虹,刘玉民,张一杨.基于黄金分割法的RBF神经网络预测控制[J].唐山学院学报,2007,20(4)77-82
[46]遍布宇宙间的黄金分割规律.科学24小时
[47]宋巨龙,钱富才.基于黄金分割的全局最优化方法[J].计算机工程与应用,2005(4):94-95
[48]尚松浩.水资源系统分析方法与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社2006.1
[49]李万绪.洪水次数的概率分析[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(2):22-24
[50]Kalbfleisch J G.Probability and Statistical Inference[J].Spring-Verlag,1985(1):120-124
[51]李万绪.洪水次数的概率分析[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(2):22-24
[52]喜河水电站可行性研究报告.基础篇[D].规划设计部,2001.8
[53]李万绪.试论喜河水电站的水库调度准则[J].西北水力发电,2007,23(3):24-30
[54]汤波.石泉、喜河梯级水库联合调度研究[D].西安理工大学,2003,9
[55]石泉水库主汛期运行方案研究[D].西安理工大学,石泉水力发电厂,2004
[56]朱战齐,刘基兴.喜河水电站调度涉及有关问题探讨[J].西北水力发电,2006,6(22):78-80
[57]赵元秀.漳泽水库汛期模糊划分及汛限水位的确定[D].太原理工大学,2004.5
[58]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连理工大学出版社,2005,12
[59]喜河水电站可行性研究报告—水文篇[D].规划设计部,2001.8
[60]石泉水库洪水资料汇编(1954-2000).石泉水力发电厂,2002
[61]万永华.水电能源系统规划[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1997
[62]董子敖.水库群调度与规划的优化理论和应用[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1989
[63]“运筹学”编写组[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003
[64]王义民,黄强,畅建霞.安康水库洪水优化调度联合模型研究[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(1):40-42
[65]邹进,张勇传.模糊动态规划在三峡梯级电站短期优化调度中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2004,35(8):89-93
[66]赵天佑.于桥水库汛限水位动态控制应用研究[D].天津大学,2006
[2]李万绪,魏晓锋.石泉水电站水情自动测报系统简介[J].大坝于安全,2000,1:16-18
[3]Yeh,W.W-G,Becker,L.and Chu,W-S,Real-time hourly reservoir operation,J.Water Resour.Plan.Manage.ASCE,1979,105(2):187-203
[4]Miller,B.A.,A.Whitlock and R.C.Hughes,Flood management-The TVA Experience.Water International,1996,21(3),119-130.
[5]Bla.ck,A.R.and A.Werdtty,Seasonality of flooding:a case study of North Britain.Journal of hydrolofy,1997(195):1-25
[6]Wurbs,R.A.,Modeling and analysis of reservoir system operation,Prentice Hall PTR,Upper Saddle River,1996
[7]包澄澜,王德瀚等.暴雨的分析与预报[M],北京:农业出版社,1981
[8]冯尚友,余敷秋,丹口水库汛期划分及实践效果[J],水利水电技术,1982,13(2):56-61
[9]Cunderlik,J M,Ouarda,T B M J,Bobée B.Determination of flood seasonality from hydrological records[J].Hydrological Sci-ences Journal,2004,49(3),511-526
[10]麻荣永.百色水库洪水规律分析及其分期设计洪水推求[J].红水河,1992,11(2):14-17
[11]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连理工大学出版社,2005
[12]许士国,陈守煜.水文分期描述的模糊统计法[J].大连理工大学学报,1990,30(5):585-589
[13]陈守煌.从研究汛期描述论水文系统模糊集分析的方法论[J].水科学进展,1995,6(2):133-138.
[14]刘秀华,宋君,张志会,王晶清.清河水库汛期分期研究[J].水利水电技术,1999,30(增刊):60-61
[15]郭荣文.龙溪河梯级水电站分期洪水分期运行研究[J].水电站设计,1997,13(4):96-98
[16]敖力布,林鸿溢.分形学导论[M].呼和浩特:内蒙古人民出版社,1996
[17]侯玉,吴伯贤,等.分形理论用于洪水分期的初步探讨[J].水科学进展,1999,10(2):140-143
[18]刘攀,郭生练,李纬,等.变点分析法在隔河岩水库汛期分期中的应用[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(1)8-11
[19]高波,刘克琳,王银堂,胡四一.系统聚类法在水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2005,36(6)1-5
[20]张尧庭,方开泰.多元统计分析引论[M].科学出版社,1982:447-453
[21]丁元芳,高凤丽.Fisher最优分割法在星星哨水库汛期分期划分中的应用[J].吉林水利,2006,11:4-6
[22]刘克琳,王银堂,胡四一,高波.Fisher最优分割法在汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2007.27(3):14-16
[23]HEC-5 simulation of flood control and conservation systems user's manual.U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Hydrologic Engineering Center,Davis,Calif,1982
[24]李会安,黄强,沈晋,等.黄河干流上游梯级水两实时调度自由化模拟模型研究[J].水力发电学报,2000(3):55-60
[25]谢柳青,等.水库群优化调度新思路—逐级模拟复合法[J].湖南水利,1997(1):30-34
[26]J S Windsor,Optimization Model for Reservoir FloodControl[J].Water Resourees Res,1973,9(5),1219-1226
[27]马勇,等.一种基于二扒口分洪运用方式的防洪系统联合运行的大规模LP广义化模型及其应用[J].水利学报,1998(12):34-37
[28]管家宝,虞锦江.梯级水电站洪水优化调度模型[J].水电能源科学,1983,1(1):65-69
[29]谢柳青、易淑珍.水库群防洪系统优化调度模型及应用[J].2002(6):38-42
[30]傅湘,纪昌明.防洪系统最优化调度模型及应用[J].水力学报,1998(5):49-53
[31]G A Sekultz,E J Plate,Developing Operating Rules for Flood Protection Reservoirs,J of Hydrol,1976,28(2/4):245-264
[32]JB.Valdes,K M Strzepek.Aggregation-disaggregation approach to multireservoir operation[J].Water Resources PlanningandManagement,1992,118(4):423-444
[33]H V Vasiliadis,M Karamouz.Demand-driven operation of reservoir using uncertainty-based optimal operating policies[J].Water Resources Planning and Management,1994,120(1):101-114
[34]G L Beekor.MultiobjeetiveAnalysisofMultireservoirOPerations[J].Water Resources Res,1982
[35]S Mohan,D M RaiPure,Multi-objeetive Analtsisof Multi-reservoir System[J].WaterResources Plan Mglnt,1992,118(4):356-370
[36]王本德,周惠成,程春田.梯级水库群防洪系统的多目标洪水调度决策的模糊优选[J].水利学报,1994(2):31-39
[37]贺北方,丁大发,马细霞.多库多目标最优控制运用的模型与方法[J].水利学报,1995(3):84-88.
[38]林翔岳,许丹萍,潘敏贞.综合利用水库群多目标优化调度[J].水科学进展,1992,3(2):112-119
[39]董增川.大系统分解协调原理在水库群优化调度中的应用[M].南京:河海大学,1986
[40]黄志中,周之毫。水库群防洪调度的大系统多目标决策模型研究[J]。水电能源科学。1994,12(4):237-245
[41]王义民.梯级水库洪水调度模式研究—以黄河上游梯级水库防洪调度为例[D].西安理工大学,2004
[42]陈守煌,邱林.水资源系统多目标模糊优选随机动态规划及实例[J].水利学报,1993,(8):43-48
[43]胡铁松,万永华,冯尚友.水库调度智能决策支持系统研究[J].成都科技大学学报,1994(6):39-45
[44]S.A Soliman,G.S Christensen.Application offunctional analysis to 0ptimization of a variable head multireservoir power system for long-term regulation[J].Water Resources Research,1986,22(6):852-858
[45]张雨虹,刘玉民,张一杨.基于黄金分割法的RBF神经网络预测控制[J].唐山学院学报,2007,20(4)77-82
[46]遍布宇宙间的黄金分割规律.科学24小时
[47]宋巨龙,钱富才.基于黄金分割的全局最优化方法[J].计算机工程与应用,2005(4):94-95
[48]尚松浩.水资源系统分析方法与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社2006.1
[49]李万绪.洪水次数的概率分析[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(2):22-24
[50]Kalbfleisch J G.Probability and Statistical Inference[J].Spring-Verlag,1985(1):120-124
[51]李万绪.洪水次数的概率分析[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(2):22-24
[52]喜河水电站可行性研究报告.基础篇[D].规划设计部,2001.8
[53]李万绪.试论喜河水电站的水库调度准则[J].西北水力发电,2007,23(3):24-30
[54]汤波.石泉、喜河梯级水库联合调度研究[D].西安理工大学,2003,9
[55]石泉水库主汛期运行方案研究[D].西安理工大学,石泉水力发电厂,2004
[56]朱战齐,刘基兴.喜河水电站调度涉及有关问题探讨[J].西北水力发电,2006,6(22):78-80
[57]赵元秀.漳泽水库汛期模糊划分及汛限水位的确定[D].太原理工大学,2004.5
[58]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连理工大学出版社,2005,12
[59]喜河水电站可行性研究报告—水文篇[D].规划设计部,2001.8
[60]石泉水库洪水资料汇编(1954-2000).石泉水力发电厂,2002
[61]万永华.水电能源系统规划[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1997
[62]董子敖.水库群调度与规划的优化理论和应用[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1989
[63]“运筹学”编写组[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003
[64]王义民,黄强,畅建霞.安康水库洪水优化调度联合模型研究[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(1):40-42
[65]邹进,张勇传.模糊动态规划在三峡梯级电站短期优化调度中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2004,35(8):89-93
[66]赵天佑.于桥水库汛限水位动态控制应用研究[D].天津大学,2006