航空运输业演化研究
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摘要
航空运输业的历史已近百年。从最初少数人“能负担”的交通方式,到成为我们出行的基本选择。航空运输业百年的历史中,呈现了独特的演变历程。从产业政策看,主要航空运输大国基本从发展初期的严格管制到辅以反垄断监管的放松管制,国际航空运输由严格的双边协定体制到“天空开放”和区域航空一体化。从依托的主要生产工具看,从活塞螺旋桨飞机到喷气式飞机再到大型化、高速化新一代运输飞机的出现。从企业组织形式和产业发展看,从运营简单的点对点航线的航空公司,到运营中枢轮辐射式航线网络的航空公司占主导,再到运营点对点航线的低成本航空公司再度兴起,以及航空公司跨国联盟的形成。通过对航空运输业演变历程中繁杂表现的梳理,剥离出其内的演化机制,用规范的经济学方法给予解释,既可从理论上丰富产业经济学的研究方法,对正处于快速发展期的中国航空运输业,如何及时调整政策,也可以提供理论上的支持。
论文以演化经济学分析方法为主要工具,融合产业组织理论和运输经济学研究成果,从历史、动态的视角剖析航空运输演化的内在机制。
首先,论文梳理了经济学发展过程的演化思想与演化经济学的形成发展,总结了演化经济学分析的基本理论范式；对产业组织研究中演化分析方法的应用进行了跟踪,提出演化动力机制、产业演化路径选择机制和产业演化的刻画与描述是产业演化研究的主要内容；在对运输经济学的学术研究框架进行归纳的基础上识别了运输经济学不同于其他产业的技术经济特点。
第二,在以上研究基础上,论文构建了航空运输业的演化模型。论文认为航空运输产品、资源、网络经济的特殊性恰是航空运输业区别于其他产业的技术经济特点,是其演化的基本“遗传”信息,而航线网络是这些“遗传”信息的载体,是航空运输业演化中的基因对应物。航空运输业发展过程中,需求、技术和制度则构成了航空运输演化的外部制约与选择环境。
航空运输业的演化是基于环境的变化,航空公司根据自身资源,通过网络调整,以有效方式提供满足需求的产品的过程。航空运输业的演化过程中,需求是产业演化的基础,技术创新是基础性的推动力量,需求变化与技术创新提供了制度创新和产业系统累积式变迁的根本诱因、基础平台和渐进动力；而制度变迁则为系统激进式变迁提供了激励结构以及航空公司组织惯例突变的内生机制和外部压力,是航空运输业演化的关键。需求、技术与制度的变化通过影响航空运输业的产品、资源和网络经济性,带来了机会集合的变化。航空公司在变化的环境中,通过组织的创新,提供满足需求的产品,取得比较优势,实现组织生存与壮大。航空运输业产业演化过程也是学习和知识累积过程。在与环境的动态适应过程中,缺乏生命力的组织形式被逐步放弃和退化,更有效的组织形式被保留、发展并被模仿,适应、学习与模仿结果的宏观涌现最终表现为航空运输业的产业演化,也即居主导地位的不同运营模式航空公司的出现和变化。
第三,为了进一步论证模型的有效性,论文从理论和实证方面对模型进行了多角度的检验。从理论上分析航空运输产品的异质性与航空公司运营模式的内在联系,证明了需求是航空运输业演化的基础,提供满足需求的产品是航空运输业演化的最终结果与表现。考察了美国航空运输业的演化历程,着重分析了需求、技术变化对美国航空运输制度变迁的影响及制度变迁的实现,从航空公司视角着重分析了环境变化后航空公司构建中枢轮辐式航线网络的动因与航空公司采取的行动,通过一个简单的“价格挤压”模型分析了技术发展对航空公司的影响。此外,通过论文构建的演化模型证明,国际航空运输业中制度安排的变化、资源的约束、全球化的航空运输需求,使得在国际航空运输中航空公司通过战略联盟构建全球网络成为理性的选择。
第四,论文分析了我国航空运输业的演化。论文研究建立的演化模型对中国航空运输业二十年的演化过程也给予了很好的解释。现阶段中国航空运输业在快速发展的同时,出现了航空公司运营模式的同质化,航空运输产品供给的多样性不足等问题,空域、机场、专业人员等资源制约和制度环境的不适应开始凸现。
最后,论文基于研究结论对中国航空运输业的发展从优化演化环境角度提出了政策建议。我国航空运输业已进入了制度变革的机遇期,建议进行更趋向自由化的制度安排调整,以产品多样化来提升我国航空运输业产业结构的高度化。形成行业管理部门与国家相关部门的有效配合机制,鼓励技术创新和优化制度环境,提高航空运输业发展的资源丰裕度。行业管理思路要从单纯注重行业发展,转向注重行业发展与消费者利益并重。同时,在放松经济规制的同时,要完善反垄断监管,维护市场的竞争格局,确保经济的自然选择对产业演化发展的正向作用。
Airline industry has nearly one century history. It is a basic option to travel for us today, but in the former it's only an "afforded" manner for some people. During the last one hundred years, the industry has appeared special development characters. In the industry policies aspect, deregulation policies accompanied with antitrust arrangements has replaced strict regulation in the main countries. In the international air transportation, strict Air Service Agreements have been replaced by "open skies" agreements and region aviation integration. In the aircraft aspect, it has gone through piston aircrafts, jet aircrafts and new generation bigger and speeder aircrafts. In the enterprise organization aspect, there are airlines with different operation characters appeared in sequence, from simply operated point-to-point air route airlines to hub-and-spoke network carriers and then to low cost carriers, finally alliances. To get the point of the evolution mechanism of airline industry with normative economy methods, that will enhance Industries Economics methodology and will provide theories support for China airline industry policies adjustment.
The paper uses Evolutionary Economics Methodology and the achievements in Industries Economics and Transport Economics, to analyze and study the evolution of airline industry in historic and dynamic angle to get the inner mechanism.
First of all, the paper summarizes the spark evolutionary thinking during the development of the economics and the formation of Evolutionary Economics to get the theory paradigm of Evolutionary Economics. After traced the research development of Industries Economics, the paper summarizes that dynamical mechanism, evolution path and description of industry evolution are the main contents of industry evolution research. On the basic of summarization research frameworks of Transport Economics, the paper indentifies the technology and economic characters of transport industry.
Secondly, the paper constructs the evolutional model of airline industry. The products, resources and Economies of network of airline industry are the unique characters that distinguish air transport with other industries. These characters are also the basic inheritable information. The network of airline that just likes the gene is the carrier of the inheritable information. Demand, technology and institution compose the external restricted environment and selected environment of the airline industry evolution.
Actually, the evolution of airline industry is the process that airlines adjust network with the restriction of usable resources to provide the products to meet the demand in the changed environment. In this process, demand is the basic of industry evolution and technology innovation is the impetus. The changes of demand and technology provide the incentive of institutional transition. The institutional transition provides incentive structure for the system change and the external pressure to airlines organization routines change. The institutional transition is the key factor of airline industry evolution. The changes of demand, technology and institution will bring the change of opportunity sets that will affect the action of airlines. In the dynamic environment, some airlines which adopt correct actions will get advantages and then survive and get growing. The evolution of airline industry is also a learning and knowledge assumption process. During this process, the failure organization models will be abandoned while the more effective models survive, grow and be copied. The result of this process is just the appearance of airline industry evolution.
Thirdly, the paper use theories and empirical approach to testify validity of constructed Airline Industry Evolutional Model. Through theories analysis of the internal relation between heterogeneity of air transport products and operation model of airlines, the paper testified demand is the basic of evolution. To provide the products to meet the demand is the final result and appearance of industry evolution. Then the paper reviews the history of America airline industry. Particularly, the paper examines changes of demand and technology how to affect institutional transit of America airline industry and the process of institutional transit. The paper pays attention to analyses the motive of airlines to construct hub-and-spoke network and how they acted. Through a Price Squeeze model, the paper examines technology development how to affect airlines operation. In addition, the constructed Model also testifies alliances in international air transport are the rational choices of airlines while they operated in a dynamic environment which institution changed, demand increased with globalization and single airline has restricted resources.
Fourthly, the paper examines the evolution of China airline industry. The constructed Model is proved to be a good instrument to explain how China airline industry changed. At present, some problems have emerged while the industry in China has achieved noticeable development. The most serious one is homogeneous operation model of airlines that result in the insufficiency air transport products supply. Capacity restricted in airspaces, airports and professional human resource scarcity are also need to be solved while the institutional environment can not suit to the industry development.
Finally, some suggestions that how to optimize industry environment are raised in the last part of the paper based the study conclusions. The industry in China already got into the institutional transit phase. More liberalization institution arrangements should be introduced into the industry that will encourage airlines to diversify their products. So, that will helpful to optimize the industry structural. To enhance cooperation of the industry regulator and other involved ministries, to encourage technology innovation and to optimize the institution environment that will improve the industry resources affluently. The thoughts of regulating the industry should transfer from only pay attention to the development to pay more attention to consumer. Antitrust arrangements should be enhanced while the industry deregulation that will assure the environment has the positive affection to the industry evolution.
论文以演化经济学分析方法为主要工具,融合产业组织理论和运输经济学研究成果,从历史、动态的视角剖析航空运输演化的内在机制。
首先,论文梳理了经济学发展过程的演化思想与演化经济学的形成发展,总结了演化经济学分析的基本理论范式；对产业组织研究中演化分析方法的应用进行了跟踪,提出演化动力机制、产业演化路径选择机制和产业演化的刻画与描述是产业演化研究的主要内容；在对运输经济学的学术研究框架进行归纳的基础上识别了运输经济学不同于其他产业的技术经济特点。
第二,在以上研究基础上,论文构建了航空运输业的演化模型。论文认为航空运输产品、资源、网络经济的特殊性恰是航空运输业区别于其他产业的技术经济特点,是其演化的基本“遗传”信息,而航线网络是这些“遗传”信息的载体,是航空运输业演化中的基因对应物。航空运输业发展过程中,需求、技术和制度则构成了航空运输演化的外部制约与选择环境。
航空运输业的演化是基于环境的变化,航空公司根据自身资源,通过网络调整,以有效方式提供满足需求的产品的过程。航空运输业的演化过程中,需求是产业演化的基础,技术创新是基础性的推动力量,需求变化与技术创新提供了制度创新和产业系统累积式变迁的根本诱因、基础平台和渐进动力；而制度变迁则为系统激进式变迁提供了激励结构以及航空公司组织惯例突变的内生机制和外部压力,是航空运输业演化的关键。需求、技术与制度的变化通过影响航空运输业的产品、资源和网络经济性,带来了机会集合的变化。航空公司在变化的环境中,通过组织的创新,提供满足需求的产品,取得比较优势,实现组织生存与壮大。航空运输业产业演化过程也是学习和知识累积过程。在与环境的动态适应过程中,缺乏生命力的组织形式被逐步放弃和退化,更有效的组织形式被保留、发展并被模仿,适应、学习与模仿结果的宏观涌现最终表现为航空运输业的产业演化,也即居主导地位的不同运营模式航空公司的出现和变化。
第三,为了进一步论证模型的有效性,论文从理论和实证方面对模型进行了多角度的检验。从理论上分析航空运输产品的异质性与航空公司运营模式的内在联系,证明了需求是航空运输业演化的基础,提供满足需求的产品是航空运输业演化的最终结果与表现。考察了美国航空运输业的演化历程,着重分析了需求、技术变化对美国航空运输制度变迁的影响及制度变迁的实现,从航空公司视角着重分析了环境变化后航空公司构建中枢轮辐式航线网络的动因与航空公司采取的行动,通过一个简单的“价格挤压”模型分析了技术发展对航空公司的影响。此外,通过论文构建的演化模型证明,国际航空运输业中制度安排的变化、资源的约束、全球化的航空运输需求,使得在国际航空运输中航空公司通过战略联盟构建全球网络成为理性的选择。
第四,论文分析了我国航空运输业的演化。论文研究建立的演化模型对中国航空运输业二十年的演化过程也给予了很好的解释。现阶段中国航空运输业在快速发展的同时,出现了航空公司运营模式的同质化,航空运输产品供给的多样性不足等问题,空域、机场、专业人员等资源制约和制度环境的不适应开始凸现。
最后,论文基于研究结论对中国航空运输业的发展从优化演化环境角度提出了政策建议。我国航空运输业已进入了制度变革的机遇期,建议进行更趋向自由化的制度安排调整,以产品多样化来提升我国航空运输业产业结构的高度化。形成行业管理部门与国家相关部门的有效配合机制,鼓励技术创新和优化制度环境,提高航空运输业发展的资源丰裕度。行业管理思路要从单纯注重行业发展,转向注重行业发展与消费者利益并重。同时,在放松经济规制的同时,要完善反垄断监管,维护市场的竞争格局,确保经济的自然选择对产业演化发展的正向作用。
Airline industry has nearly one century history. It is a basic option to travel for us today, but in the former it's only an "afforded" manner for some people. During the last one hundred years, the industry has appeared special development characters. In the industry policies aspect, deregulation policies accompanied with antitrust arrangements has replaced strict regulation in the main countries. In the international air transportation, strict Air Service Agreements have been replaced by "open skies" agreements and region aviation integration. In the aircraft aspect, it has gone through piston aircrafts, jet aircrafts and new generation bigger and speeder aircrafts. In the enterprise organization aspect, there are airlines with different operation characters appeared in sequence, from simply operated point-to-point air route airlines to hub-and-spoke network carriers and then to low cost carriers, finally alliances. To get the point of the evolution mechanism of airline industry with normative economy methods, that will enhance Industries Economics methodology and will provide theories support for China airline industry policies adjustment.
The paper uses Evolutionary Economics Methodology and the achievements in Industries Economics and Transport Economics, to analyze and study the evolution of airline industry in historic and dynamic angle to get the inner mechanism.
First of all, the paper summarizes the spark evolutionary thinking during the development of the economics and the formation of Evolutionary Economics to get the theory paradigm of Evolutionary Economics. After traced the research development of Industries Economics, the paper summarizes that dynamical mechanism, evolution path and description of industry evolution are the main contents of industry evolution research. On the basic of summarization research frameworks of Transport Economics, the paper indentifies the technology and economic characters of transport industry.
Secondly, the paper constructs the evolutional model of airline industry. The products, resources and Economies of network of airline industry are the unique characters that distinguish air transport with other industries. These characters are also the basic inheritable information. The network of airline that just likes the gene is the carrier of the inheritable information. Demand, technology and institution compose the external restricted environment and selected environment of the airline industry evolution.
Actually, the evolution of airline industry is the process that airlines adjust network with the restriction of usable resources to provide the products to meet the demand in the changed environment. In this process, demand is the basic of industry evolution and technology innovation is the impetus. The changes of demand and technology provide the incentive of institutional transition. The institutional transition provides incentive structure for the system change and the external pressure to airlines organization routines change. The institutional transition is the key factor of airline industry evolution. The changes of demand, technology and institution will bring the change of opportunity sets that will affect the action of airlines. In the dynamic environment, some airlines which adopt correct actions will get advantages and then survive and get growing. The evolution of airline industry is also a learning and knowledge assumption process. During this process, the failure organization models will be abandoned while the more effective models survive, grow and be copied. The result of this process is just the appearance of airline industry evolution.
Thirdly, the paper use theories and empirical approach to testify validity of constructed Airline Industry Evolutional Model. Through theories analysis of the internal relation between heterogeneity of air transport products and operation model of airlines, the paper testified demand is the basic of evolution. To provide the products to meet the demand is the final result and appearance of industry evolution. Then the paper reviews the history of America airline industry. Particularly, the paper examines changes of demand and technology how to affect institutional transit of America airline industry and the process of institutional transit. The paper pays attention to analyses the motive of airlines to construct hub-and-spoke network and how they acted. Through a Price Squeeze model, the paper examines technology development how to affect airlines operation. In addition, the constructed Model also testifies alliances in international air transport are the rational choices of airlines while they operated in a dynamic environment which institution changed, demand increased with globalization and single airline has restricted resources.
Fourthly, the paper examines the evolution of China airline industry. The constructed Model is proved to be a good instrument to explain how China airline industry changed. At present, some problems have emerged while the industry in China has achieved noticeable development. The most serious one is homogeneous operation model of airlines that result in the insufficiency air transport products supply. Capacity restricted in airspaces, airports and professional human resource scarcity are also need to be solved while the institutional environment can not suit to the industry development.
Finally, some suggestions that how to optimize industry environment are raised in the last part of the paper based the study conclusions. The industry in China already got into the institutional transit phase. More liberalization institution arrangements should be introduced into the industry that will encourage airlines to diversify their products. So, that will helpful to optimize the industry structural. To enhance cooperation of the industry regulator and other involved ministries, to encourage technology innovation and to optimize the institution environment that will improve the industry resources affluently. The thoughts of regulating the industry should transfer from only pay attention to the development to pay more attention to consumer. Antitrust arrangements should be enhanced while the industry deregulation that will assure the environment has the positive affection to the industry evolution.
引文
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