加工贸易对中国产业升级的促进作用研究
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摘要
在当今产业全球化的背景下,加工贸易作为产品内分工的典型形式,是中国承接国际产业转移、实现国内产业升级的有效途径。基于这一认识,本文运用产品内分工理论模型说明了加工贸易对一国产业升级的促进作用,同时进行了实证检验,并进一步探讨了加工贸易对中国产业升级的影响渠道和存在的问题。
在综述了加工贸易问题的基础上,依据Feenstra和Hanson(1996)一个产品内分工模型——要素连续统模型(the Continuum of Inputs Model),运用经济学中的比较静态分析方法,分析了经济开放条件下各参加国如何通过加工贸易实现本国产业在国际价值链上的提升,从而说明了加工贸易对产业升级的促进作用。然后运用计量经济学中的因果检验和协整方法,选取中国加工贸易和要素密集度的数据,实证检验了这种促进作用。结果表明,加工贸易对中国国内产业升级的促进作用主要体现在进口方面,出口并不显著。这也反映了加工贸易的国内增值率不高、产业链条短的现实状况。
文章进一步分析和探讨了加工贸易对产业升级的影响渠道,其中包括:资金供给效应、技术转移和溢出效应、产业关联效应、出口示范和竞争效应。并根据中国的现实情况,研究了加工贸易在促进国内产业升级过程中存在的一些问题,其中比较突出的是加工贸易的技术含量不高、技术转移效应不明显和产业配套能力不足,这说明了加工贸易在我国的发展还有巨大潜力,其积极作用还没有充分发挥出来。最后探讨了加快加工贸易发展、促进国内产业升级的政策建议。
On the background of industrial globalization today, being a classic form of the Intra-product Specialization, processing trade is an effective way to accept the international industry transfer and gain domestic industrial upgrading. Based on this view, the article introduces an intra-product model to demonstrate the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading in one country and carries on an empirical test. Meanwhile, it tries to discuss the influence channel and the existing problems about the promotion.
After the literature review with respect to the processing trade ,the article introduces an intra-product model by Feenstra and Hanson(1996) named the Continuum of Inputs Model, and then utilizes the comparative static method in economics to analyze the processing trade, the model proves that the processing trade will help“dynamic climbing”in the global value chain clusters among the participating industries in the opening economical conditions, and manifests the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading. Next, by making use of the Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test and choosing the data of the processing trade and the factor intensity ratio, the promotion is absolutely proved. The result indicates that the import content of processing trade mainly causes the promotion, the export content being not remarkable. It reflects the reality of low domestic value-added ratio and short industry chain clusters of processing trade in China as well.
The article further analyzes and discusses the influence channel of the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading, which is included as follows: the capital supplying effect, the technique transforming and overflowing effect, the industry connecting effect, the export demonstrating and competing effect. At the same time, according to the objective reality in China, a study shows a series of problems existing in the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading, which prominently concerns the technical content being not high, the technique transforming and overflowing effect being not obvious and the industrial assembling capacity being insufficient . The study also shows that the development of processing trade in China has great potential , its positive act on the domestic industrial upgrading has been not fully released yet. Eventually, a number of policies on how to speed up the
在综述了加工贸易问题的基础上,依据Feenstra和Hanson(1996)一个产品内分工模型——要素连续统模型(the Continuum of Inputs Model),运用经济学中的比较静态分析方法,分析了经济开放条件下各参加国如何通过加工贸易实现本国产业在国际价值链上的提升,从而说明了加工贸易对产业升级的促进作用。然后运用计量经济学中的因果检验和协整方法,选取中国加工贸易和要素密集度的数据,实证检验了这种促进作用。结果表明,加工贸易对中国国内产业升级的促进作用主要体现在进口方面,出口并不显著。这也反映了加工贸易的国内增值率不高、产业链条短的现实状况。
文章进一步分析和探讨了加工贸易对产业升级的影响渠道,其中包括:资金供给效应、技术转移和溢出效应、产业关联效应、出口示范和竞争效应。并根据中国的现实情况,研究了加工贸易在促进国内产业升级过程中存在的一些问题,其中比较突出的是加工贸易的技术含量不高、技术转移效应不明显和产业配套能力不足,这说明了加工贸易在我国的发展还有巨大潜力,其积极作用还没有充分发挥出来。最后探讨了加快加工贸易发展、促进国内产业升级的政策建议。
On the background of industrial globalization today, being a classic form of the Intra-product Specialization, processing trade is an effective way to accept the international industry transfer and gain domestic industrial upgrading. Based on this view, the article introduces an intra-product model to demonstrate the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading in one country and carries on an empirical test. Meanwhile, it tries to discuss the influence channel and the existing problems about the promotion.
After the literature review with respect to the processing trade ,the article introduces an intra-product model by Feenstra and Hanson(1996) named the Continuum of Inputs Model, and then utilizes the comparative static method in economics to analyze the processing trade, the model proves that the processing trade will help“dynamic climbing”in the global value chain clusters among the participating industries in the opening economical conditions, and manifests the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading. Next, by making use of the Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test and choosing the data of the processing trade and the factor intensity ratio, the promotion is absolutely proved. The result indicates that the import content of processing trade mainly causes the promotion, the export content being not remarkable. It reflects the reality of low domestic value-added ratio and short industry chain clusters of processing trade in China as well.
The article further analyzes and discusses the influence channel of the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading, which is included as follows: the capital supplying effect, the technique transforming and overflowing effect, the industry connecting effect, the export demonstrating and competing effect. At the same time, according to the objective reality in China, a study shows a series of problems existing in the promotion of processing trade on the industrial upgrading, which prominently concerns the technical content being not high, the technique transforming and overflowing effect being not obvious and the industrial assembling capacity being insufficient . The study also shows that the development of processing trade in China has great potential , its positive act on the domestic industrial upgrading has been not fully released yet. Eventually, a number of policies on how to speed up the
引文
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[2] 蒋昭侠.产业结构问题研究.北京:中国经济出版社,2005,6-19
[3] Helleiner, G.K. Manufactured exports from less-developed countries and multinational firms. The Economic Journal, 1973(March),Vol.83,Issue 329, 21-47.
[4] Finger, J.M. Tariff provisions for offshore assembly and the exports of developing countries. The Economic Journal,1975(June), Vol. 85, Issue 338, 365-371.
[5] Balassa, Bela. Tariff protection in industrial countries: An evaluation. The Journal of Political Economy, 1965 (Dec), Vol. 73, Issue 6, 573-594
[6] Corden, W.M. The structure of a tariff system and the effective protective rate. Journal of Political Economy, 1966,74(2), 221—37
[7] Jones, R.W. A Three-Factor Model in Theory, Trade and History, in Bhagwati, J.et al., Trade, Balance of Payments and Growth, North Holland, 1971.
[8] Bhagwati, Jagdish N.& Vivek H. Dehejia. Freer Trade and Wages of the Unskilled -- Is Marx Striking Again. In Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Marvin Kosters eds. Trade and Wages: Leveling Wages Down. 1994,Washington D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 36-75
[9] Grossman, Sanford, and Oliver Hart, The Costs and Benefits of Owner-ship: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration,Journal of Political Economy,1986, Vol. 94, 691-719.
[10] Vanek, J. Variable factor proportions and inter—industry flows inthe theory of international trade. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1963, 77(1), 129—42
[11] Melvin, J.R. Intermediate goods, the production possibility curve and gains from trade. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1969, 83(1), 141—51
[12] Dixit, Avinash K. and Grossman, Gene M. Trade and protection with multistage production. The Review of Economic Studies, 1982, Oct, Vol. 49, Issue 4, 583-594
[13] Krugman, Paul R. Does Third World Growth Hurt First World Prosperity. Harvard Business Review ,1994,72, 113-121
[14] Bhagwati, Jagdish and Vivek H. Dehejia, Freer Trade and Wages of the Unskilled – Is Marx Striking Again, in Jagdish Bhagwati and Marvin H. Kosters, eds. Trade and Wages:Leveling Wages Down? The American Enterprise Institute Press: Washington, D.C., 1994, 36-75.
[15] Deardorff, Alan V. Fragmentation across cones. In Arndt, Sven W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk (ed.), Fragmentation: New Production Patterns in the World Economy. 2001,Oxford University Press, 35-51
[16] Jones, Ronald W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk. The role of services in production and international trade: A theoretical framework. In Ronald W. Jones and Anne , Krueger, (eds), The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert E. Baldwin. 1990,Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 31-48
[17] Yi, Kei-Mu . Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?. Journal of Political Economy, 2003,Vol. 111, No. 1, 52-102
[18] Hummels David, Ishii Jun and Yi, Kei-Mu. The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade. Journal of International Economics, 2001, Vol. 54, 75-96
[19] Yeats, Alexander J. Just How Big Is Global Production Sharing?. In Arndt, Sven W. and Henryk Kierzkowski eds., Fragmentation: New Production Patterns in the World Economy. 2001,Oxford University Press
[20] 潘悦. 加工贸易产业升级和技术进步. 经济研究参考,2003,(11):27-56
[21] 白斌.中国加工贸易发展研究.国际贸易[D],武汉:武汉大学,2004(5)
[22] 张蕴如. 开放式产业结构升级与加工贸易的互动发展. 现代经济探讨,2001,(4):32-35
[23] 刘嵩. 试论我国加工贸易模式的转变..形势与对策,1999,(8):11-14
[24] 隆国强.加工贸易——全球化背景下工业化新道路,国际贸易,2002(12):4-12
[25] 张华初,李永杰.论我国加工贸易的就业效应,财贸经济,2004(6):87-89
[26] 陈朴,加工贸易比重过大对我国高新技术产业发展的影响及应对探讨,南方经济, 2004(6):66-69
[27] 罗兴武,蔡宜斌.加工贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证研究,经贸论坛,2002(5),6-7
[28] 刘志忠,王耀中. 加工贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证研究,财经理论与实践(双月刊),2003(11):89-92
[29] 隆国强. 对加工贸易的评价 [J ]. 经济研究参考 ,2003 ,(11):24-27
[30] 闫国庆 ,陈丽静. 加工贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证分析. 国际经贸探索 ,2005 ,(03):69-72
[31] 黄菁,赖明勇.加工贸易与中国经济增长的经验研究,云南财经学院学报,2005(5):39-41
[32] 卢荣忠.我国境内加工贸易管理中存在的问题与对策,国际贸易问题,2001(1):24-27
[33] 陈旭东,林盈鸽.我国加工贸易形势及管理模式探讨,国际经贸探索,1999(4):14-16
[34] 冯雷.从贸易方式走向与国际经济融合——中国加工贸易管理模式探析,国际贸易,2002(3):18-22
[35] 廖涵,曹仕庆.我国加工贸易政策调整分析.中南财经大学学报,2002(5):27-30
[36] 张燕生. 我国加工贸易未来转型升级的方向. 宏观经济研究,2004,(2):15-17
[37] 潘悦.我国加工贸易发展的影响因素及政策趋向分析,学术研究,2001(5):24-28
[38] Jay Barney. Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage[M], America: South-Western College Publishing,1996:96-111
[39] Francoise Lemoine and Deniz Unal-Kesenci. China in the International Segmentation of Production Processes. CEPII Working Paper, No.2002-02,2002
[40] Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson. Foreign Investment, Outsourcing,and Relative Wages. NBER Working Paper,No.5121,1996
[41] Ge,W. The Dynamics of Export-processing Zones. UNCTAD discussion papers,No.144,1999
[42] 金碚.正确认识和逐步完善加工贸易制度,开放导报,1999(7):11-13
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